Intrinsic value of Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc. - SAUC

Previous Close

$0.81

  Intrinsic Value

$0.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$0.81

 
Intrinsic value

$0.11

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SAUC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  168
  172
  177
  182
  187
  193
  200
  207
  214
  223
  232
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  311
  325
  340
  356
  372
  390
  408
  428
  448
  470
  492
  516
  541
Variable operating expenses, $m
  161
  165
  169
  173
  179
  184
  190
  197
  204
  212
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  265
  276
  289
  302
  316
  330
  346
  362
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
  479
  503
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  161
  165
  169
  173
  179
  184
  190
  197
  204
  212
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  265
  276
  289
  302
  316
  330
  346
  362
  379
  397
  416
  436
  457
  479
  503
Operating income, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
EBITDA, $m
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  71
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
Earnings before tax, $m
  1
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Net income, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  110
  112
  115
  119
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  322
  337
  354
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  110
  112
  115
  119
  122
  126
  130
  135
  140
  145
  151
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  322
  337
  354
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.527
  1.536
  1.539
  1.529
  1.533
  1.532
  1.538
  1.533
  1.529
  1.538
  1.536
  1.535
  1.530
  1.532
  1.534
  1.532
  1.531
  1.532
  1.533
  1.532
  1.534
  1.531
  1.529
  1.528
  1.534
  1.529
  1.531
  1.528
  1.531
  1.528
Average production assets, $m
  80
  82
  84
  87
  89
  92
  95
  99
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
  224
  235
  246
  258
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Total debt, $m
  82
  84
  87
  90
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  130
  137
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
  183
  192
  202
  212
  223
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  301
Total liabilities, $m
  99
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  117
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  154
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  276
  289
  303
  318
Total equity, $m
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  110
  112
  116
  119
  122
  127
  130
  136
  140
  146
  151
  158
  163
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  254
  267
  279
  292
  307
  321
  337
  353
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.450
  7.480
  7.520
  7.560
  7.600
  7.650
  7.690
  7.740
  7.780
  7.830
  7.870
  7.920
  7.960
  8.000
  8.040
  8.080
  8.120
  8.160
  8.200
  8.230
  8.270
  8.300
  8.330
  8.360
  8.390
  8.420
  8.440
  8.470
  8.490
  8.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
Funds from operations, $m
  15
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
Free cash flow, $m
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -32
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  6
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -29
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Discount rate, %
  14.20
  14.91
  15.66
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
  25.50
  26.78
  28.12
  29.52
  31.00
  32.55
  34.17
  35.88
  37.68
  39.56
  41.54
  43.62
  45.80
  48.09
  50.49
  53.02
  55.67
  58.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -25
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc. (DRH) is a restaurant company. The Company is a franchisee of Buffalo Wild Wings (BWW).As of September 25, 2016, the Company operated 64 BWW restaurants, which are located in Michigan, Florida, Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. The BWW restaurants feature a range of menu items with a multimedia social environment, a bar and an open layout designed to create a dining experience for sports fans and families. Its guests have the option of watching various sporting events on projection screens or televisions. As of September 25, 2016, the BWW menu specialized in 21 sauces and seasonings with flavors ranging from Sweet BBQ to Blazin'. As of September 25, 2016, the restaurants offered 12 to 30 domestic and imported beers on tap, including several local or regional microbrews and a selection of bottled beer, wine and liquor.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc. (SAUC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.6
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book -5.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -35%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -2750%
Total Debt to Equity -3025%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 12%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Return On Total Capital -4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Return On Equity -92.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.1%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.6%
EBITDA Margin 13.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9%
Operating Margin 4.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Net Profit Margin -3.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Effective Tax Rate -300%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.8%
Payout Ratio -33.3%

SAUC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SAUC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $165 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SAUC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.2%, whose default value for SAUC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SAUC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SAUC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SAUC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SAUC are equal to 47.7%.

Life of production assets of 8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SAUC is equal to -4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-23.228635 million for Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.202 million for Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Diversified Restaurant Holdings, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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