Intrinsic value of SBA Communications Corporation - SBAC

Previous Close

$226.50

  Intrinsic Value

$5.50

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-98%

Previous close

$226.50

 
Intrinsic value

$5.50

 
Up/down potential

-98%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SBAC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 25.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.20
  8.78
  8.40
  8.06
  7.76
  7.48
  7.23
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.46
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.86
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
Revenue, $m
  2,038
  2,217
  2,403
  2,597
  2,798
  3,007
  3,225
  3,451
  3,686
  3,930
  4,184
  4,448
  4,723
  5,010
  5,309
  5,620
  5,945
  6,284
  6,637
  7,007
  7,393
  7,797
  8,219
  8,660
  9,122
  9,606
  10,112
  10,643
  11,198
  11,780
Variable operating expenses, $m
  740
  775
  812
  851
  891
  933
  976
  1,021
  1,068
  1,117
  835
  887
  942
  999
  1,059
  1,121
  1,186
  1,254
  1,324
  1,398
  1,475
  1,555
  1,640
  1,728
  1,820
  1,916
  2,017
  2,123
  2,234
  2,350
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  643
  657
  671
  686
  701
  717
  732
  749
  765
  782
  799
  817
  835
  853
  872
  891
  911
  931
  951
  972
  993
  1,015
  1,038
  1,060
  1,084
  1,108
  1,132
  1,157
  1,182
  1,208
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,383
  1,432
  1,483
  1,537
  1,592
  1,650
  1,708
  1,770
  1,833
  1,899
  1,634
  1,704
  1,777
  1,852
  1,931
  2,012
  2,097
  2,185
  2,275
  2,370
  2,468
  2,570
  2,678
  2,788
  2,904
  3,024
  3,149
  3,280
  3,416
  3,558
Operating income, $m
  655
  784
  919
  1,059
  1,205
  1,357
  1,516
  1,681
  1,852
  2,031
  2,550
  2,744
  2,946
  3,158
  3,378
  3,608
  3,848
  4,099
  4,362
  4,637
  4,925
  5,226
  5,542
  5,872
  6,219
  6,582
  6,963
  7,363
  7,782
  8,222
EBITDA, $m
  1,521
  1,696
  1,880
  2,071
  2,269
  2,476
  2,691
  2,915
  3,148
  3,390
  3,643
  3,906
  4,180
  4,466
  4,764
  5,076
  5,401
  5,741
  6,096
  6,467
  6,856
  7,262
  7,688
  8,134
  8,601
  9,091
  9,604
  10,142
  10,707
  11,299
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  537
  347
  381
  416
  452
  490
  529
  570
  612
  656
  702
  750
  799
  851
  905
  961
  1,019
  1,080
  1,144
  1,210
  1,280
  1,352
  1,428
  1,507
  1,590
  1,677
  1,767
  1,862
  1,962
  2,066
Earnings before tax, $m
  119
  437
  538
  644
  753
  868
  987
  1,111
  1,240
  1,374
  1,848
  1,994
  2,147
  2,306
  2,473
  2,647
  2,829
  3,019
  3,218
  3,427
  3,645
  3,874
  4,114
  4,365
  4,629
  4,906
  5,196
  5,500
  5,820
  6,156
Tax expense, $m
  32
  118
  145
  174
  203
  234
  266
  300
  335
  371
  499
  538
  580
  623
  668
  715
  764
  815
  869
  925
  984
  1,046
  1,111
  1,179
  1,250
  1,324
  1,403
  1,485
  1,571
  1,662
Net income, $m
  87
  319
  393
  470
  550
  633
  720
  811
  905
  1,003
  1,349
  1,456
  1,567
  1,684
  1,805
  1,932
  2,065
  2,204
  2,349
  2,502
  2,661
  2,828
  3,003
  3,187
  3,379
  3,581
  3,793
  4,015
  4,249
  4,494

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,867
  8,558
  9,277
  10,025
  10,803
  11,611
  12,450
  13,323
  14,230
  15,173
  16,154
  17,175
  18,237
  19,344
  20,497
  21,699
  22,953
  24,261
  25,627
  27,054
  28,545
  30,103
  31,733
  33,437
  35,221
  37,089
  39,044
  41,091
  43,236
  45,483
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,867
  8,558
  9,277
  10,025
  10,803
  11,611
  12,450
  13,323
  14,230
  15,173
  16,154
  17,175
  18,237
  19,344
  20,497
  21,699
  22,953
  24,261
  25,627
  27,054
  28,545
  30,103
  31,733
  33,437
  35,221
  37,089
  39,044
  41,091
  43,236
  45,483
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
  0.259
Average production assets, $m
  4,950
  5,384
  5,836
  6,307
  6,796
  7,304
  7,833
  8,382
  8,952
  9,546
  10,163
  10,805
  11,473
  12,169
  12,895
  13,651
  14,440
  15,263
  16,122
  17,020
  17,958
  18,938
  19,963
  21,036
  22,158
  23,333
  24,563
  25,851
  27,200
  28,614
Working capital, $m
  -73
  -80
  -87
  -93
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -133
  -141
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -191
  -202
  -214
  -226
  -239
  -252
  -266
  -281
  -296
  -312
  -328
  -346
  -364
  -383
  -403
  -424
Total debt, $m
  6,429
  7,050
  7,698
  8,371
  9,070
  9,798
  10,553
  11,339
  12,155
  13,004
  13,887
  14,805
  15,761
  16,757
  17,795
  18,877
  20,005
  21,183
  22,412
  23,696
  25,038
  26,441
  27,907
  29,442
  31,047
  32,728
  34,487
  36,330
  38,260
  40,283
Total liabilities, $m
  7,081
  7,702
  8,350
  9,023
  9,722
  10,450
  11,205
  11,991
  12,807
  13,656
  14,539
  15,457
  16,413
  17,409
  18,447
  19,529
  20,657
  21,835
  23,064
  24,348
  25,690
  27,093
  28,559
  30,094
  31,699
  33,380
  35,139
  36,982
  38,912
  40,935
Total equity, $m
  787
  856
  928
  1,003
  1,080
  1,161
  1,245
  1,332
  1,423
  1,517
  1,615
  1,717
  1,824
  1,934
  2,050
  2,170
  2,295
  2,426
  2,563
  2,705
  2,854
  3,010
  3,173
  3,344
  3,522
  3,709
  3,904
  4,109
  4,324
  4,548
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,868
  8,558
  9,278
  10,026
  10,802
  11,611
  12,450
  13,323
  14,230
  15,173
  16,154
  17,174
  18,237
  19,343
  20,497
  21,699
  22,952
  24,261
  25,627
  27,053
  28,544
  30,103
  31,732
  33,438
  35,221
  37,089
  39,043
  41,091
  43,236
  45,483
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.170
  8.240
  8.300
  8.350
  8.400
  8.440
  8.480
  8.510
  8.540
  8.570
  8.600
  8.620
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.730
  8.750
  8.760
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.810
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
  8.850
  8.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  87
  319
  393
  470
  550
  633
  720
  811
  905
  1,003
  1,349
  1,456
  1,567
  1,684
  1,805
  1,932
  2,065
  2,204
  2,349
  2,502
  2,661
  2,828
  3,003
  3,187
  3,379
  3,581
  3,793
  4,015
  4,249
  4,494
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  865
  912
  961
  1,011
  1,064
  1,119
  1,175
  1,234
  1,296
  1,360
  1,093
  1,162
  1,234
  1,309
  1,387
  1,468
  1,553
  1,641
  1,734
  1,830
  1,931
  2,036
  2,147
  2,262
  2,383
  2,509
  2,641
  2,780
  2,925
  3,077
Funds from operations, $m
  952
  1,231
  1,354
  1,481
  1,614
  1,752
  1,896
  2,045
  2,201
  2,363
  2,442
  2,618
  2,801
  2,992
  3,192
  3,400
  3,618
  3,845
  4,083
  4,332
  4,592
  4,864
  5,150
  5,449
  5,762
  6,090
  6,434
  6,795
  7,173
  7,571
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from operations, $m
  958
  1,238
  1,360
  1,488
  1,621
  1,759
  1,903
  2,053
  2,209
  2,372
  2,451
  2,627
  2,811
  3,003
  3,203
  3,411
  3,629
  3,857
  4,096
  4,345
  4,606
  4,879
  5,165
  5,464
  5,778
  6,107
  6,452
  6,814
  7,193
  7,591
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -487
  -532
  -579
  -628
  -678
  -731
  -785
  -842
  -901
  -963
  -1,026
  -1,093
  -1,162
  -1,234
  -1,309
  -1,387
  -1,468
  -1,553
  -1,641
  -1,734
  -1,830
  -1,931
  -2,036
  -2,147
  -2,262
  -2,383
  -2,509
  -2,641
  -2,780
  -2,925
New CAPEX, $m
  -418
  -435
  -452
  -471
  -489
  -508
  -528
  -549
  -571
  -593
  -617
  -642
  -668
  -696
  -725
  -756
  -789
  -823
  -859
  -898
  -938
  -980
  -1,025
  -1,072
  -1,122
  -1,175
  -1,230
  -1,288
  -1,349
  -1,414
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -905
  -967
  -1,031
  -1,099
  -1,167
  -1,239
  -1,313
  -1,391
  -1,472
  -1,556
  -1,643
  -1,735
  -1,830
  -1,930
  -2,034
  -2,143
  -2,257
  -2,376
  -2,500
  -2,632
  -2,768
  -2,911
  -3,061
  -3,219
  -3,384
  -3,558
  -3,739
  -3,929
  -4,129
  -4,339
Free cash flow, $m
  53
  271
  329
  390
  454
  520
  590
  662
  737
  816
  807
  892
  981
  1,073
  1,169
  1,269
  1,373
  1,482
  1,595
  1,714
  1,838
  1,968
  2,103
  2,245
  2,394
  2,550
  2,713
  2,885
  3,064
  3,253
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -3,510
  622
  647
  673
  700
  727
  756
  785
  816
  849
  883
  919
  956
  996
  1,038
  1,082
  1,128
  1,178
  1,229
  1,284
  1,342
  1,403
  1,467
  1,534
  1,606
  1,681
  1,760
  1,843
  1,930
  2,023
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4,077
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  567
  622
  647
  673
  700
  727
  756
  785
  816
  849
  883
  919
  956
  996
  1,038
  1,082
  1,128
  1,178
  1,229
  1,284
  1,342
  1,403
  1,467
  1,534
  1,606
  1,681
  1,760
  1,843
  1,930
  2,023
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  620
  893
  976
  1,063
  1,153
  1,248
  1,345
  1,447
  1,554
  1,665
  1,690
  1,811
  1,937
  2,069
  2,206
  2,350
  2,501
  2,659
  2,825
  2,998
  3,180
  3,370
  3,570
  3,780
  4,000
  4,231
  4,473
  4,728
  4,995
  5,275
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4,164
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -214
  -225
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -3,543
  823
  904
  988
  1,076
  1,167
  1,262
  1,360
  1,463
  1,570
  1,592
  1,709
  1,831
  1,958
  2,091
  2,230
  2,376
  2,528
  2,688
  2,855
  3,031
  3,214
  3,407
  3,609
  3,821
  4,044
  4,277
  4,523
  4,780
  5,051
Discount rate, %
  14.50
  15.23
  15.99
  16.79
  17.62
  18.51
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.62
  24.80
  26.04
  27.34
  28.71
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.90
  36.64
  38.47
  40.40
  42.42
  44.54
  46.76
  49.10
  51.56
  54.14
  56.84
  59.68
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -3,095
  620
  580
  531
  478
  421
  364
  308
  255
  206
  155
  120
  90
  66
  47
  33
  22
  14
  9
  6
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

SBA Communications Corporation owns and operates wireless communications tower structures, rooftops, and other structures that support antennas used for wireless communications in the United States and its territories, South America, Central America, and Canada. It operates through two segments, Site Leasing and Site Development. The company leases antenna space to wireless service providers on towers that it owns or operates; and manages rooftop and tower sites for property owners under various contractual arrangements. As of December 31, 2015, it owned 25,465 towers; and managed or leased approximately 5,500 actual or potential towers. The company also provides a range of site development services, including network pre-design; site audits; identification of potential locations for towers and antennas; support in buying or leasing of the location; assistance in obtaining zoning approvals and permits; tower and related site construction; antenna installation; and radio equipment installation, commissioning, and maintenance. SBA Communications Corporation is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SBA Communications Corporation (SBAC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SBAC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SBAC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1866 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SBA Communications Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of SBA Communications Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SBAC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.5%, whose default value for SBAC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SBA Communications Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SBA Communications Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SBAC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $629 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SBAC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for SBA Communications Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SBA Communications Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SBAC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SBAC are equal to 242.9%.

Life of production assets of 9.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SBA Communications Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SBAC is equal to -3.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-3376.823 million for SBA Communications Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 112.595 million for SBA Communications Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SBA Communications Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $25.5 billion.

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