Intrinsic value of SBA Communications - SBAC

Previous Close

$160.51

  Intrinsic Value

$4.80

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

Previous close

$160.51

 
Intrinsic value

$4.80

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SBAC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 18.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  1,845
  1,967
  2,094
  2,227
  2,364
  2,508
  2,657
  2,813
  2,975
  3,145
  3,321
  3,506
  3,699
  3,901
  4,112
  4,333
  4,564
  4,806
  5,060
  5,325
  5,603
  5,894
  6,199
  6,519
  6,854
  7,206
  7,575
  7,961
  8,367
  8,792
Variable operating expenses, $m
  429
  434
  439
  444
  449
  454
  460
  466
  472
  478
  125
  132
  140
  147
  155
  164
  172
  181
  191
  201
  211
  222
  234
  246
  259
  272
  286
  300
  316
  332
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  882
  901
  921
  941
  962
  983
  1,005
  1,027
  1,050
  1,073
  1,096
  1,121
  1,145
  1,170
  1,196
  1,222
  1,249
  1,277
  1,305
  1,334
  1,363
  1,393
  1,424
  1,455
  1,487
  1,520
  1,553
  1,587
  1,622
  1,658
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,311
  1,335
  1,360
  1,385
  1,411
  1,437
  1,465
  1,493
  1,522
  1,551
  1,221
  1,253
  1,285
  1,317
  1,351
  1,386
  1,421
  1,458
  1,496
  1,535
  1,574
  1,615
  1,658
  1,701
  1,746
  1,792
  1,839
  1,887
  1,938
  1,990
Operating income, $m
  534
  632
  734
  841
  953
  1,070
  1,192
  1,320
  1,453
  1,593
  2,100
  2,253
  2,415
  2,584
  2,761
  2,947
  3,143
  3,348
  3,564
  3,790
  4,029
  4,279
  4,542
  4,818
  5,109
  5,414
  5,736
  6,074
  6,429
  6,803
EBITDA, $m
  1,386
  1,517
  1,654
  1,796
  1,944
  2,099
  2,261
  2,431
  2,608
  2,793
  2,987
  3,190
  3,403
  3,626
  3,860
  4,105
  4,362
  4,632
  4,915
  5,213
  5,525
  5,853
  6,198
  6,559
  6,940
  7,339
  7,759
  8,200
  8,664
  9,151
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  503
  347
  372
  398
  426
  454
  484
  514
  546
  580
  615
  651
  689
  729
  771
  814
  860
  907
  957
  1,009
  1,064
  1,121
  1,181
  1,244
  1,310
  1,379
  1,451
  1,527
  1,607
  1,690
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  285
  362
  443
  527
  616
  708
  805
  907
  1,013
  1,485
  1,602
  1,725
  1,855
  1,991
  2,133
  2,283
  2,441
  2,607
  2,781
  2,965
  3,158
  3,361
  3,574
  3,799
  4,036
  4,285
  4,547
  4,822
  5,113
Tax expense, $m
  8
  77
  98
  120
  142
  166
  191
  217
  245
  274
  401
  433
  466
  501
  537
  576
  617
  659
  704
  751
  800
  853
  907
  965
  1,026
  1,090
  1,157
  1,228
  1,302
  1,380
Net income, $m
  23
  208
  264
  323
  385
  449
  517
  588
  662
  740
  1,084
  1,170
  1,260
  1,354
  1,453
  1,557
  1,667
  1,782
  1,903
  2,030
  2,164
  2,305
  2,453
  2,609
  2,773
  2,946
  3,128
  3,319
  3,520
  3,732

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,818
  8,336
  8,874
  9,435
  10,018
  10,625
  11,258
  11,918
  12,606
  13,324
  14,074
  14,857
  15,676
  16,531
  17,426
  18,362
  19,341
  20,366
  21,439
  22,564
  23,741
  24,975
  26,268
  27,623
  29,044
  30,534
  32,096
  33,734
  35,453
  37,256
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,818
  8,336
  8,874
  9,435
  10,018
  10,625
  11,258
  11,918
  12,606
  13,324
  14,074
  14,857
  15,676
  16,531
  17,426
  18,362
  19,341
  20,366
  21,439
  22,564
  23,741
  24,975
  26,268
  27,623
  29,044
  30,534
  32,096
  33,734
  35,453
  37,256
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
Average production assets, $m
  4,928
  5,255
  5,594
  5,947
  6,315
  6,698
  7,097
  7,512
  7,946
  8,399
  8,872
  9,365
  9,881
  10,421
  10,984
  11,574
  12,192
  12,838
  13,514
  14,223
  14,965
  15,743
  16,558
  17,412
  18,308
  19,247
  20,232
  21,265
  22,348
  23,484
Working capital, $m
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -173
  -182
  -193
  -203
  -215
  -226
  -239
  -251
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -309
  -325
  -342
  -360
  -378
  -398
  -418
  -439
  -462
  -485
  -510
Total debt, $m
  6,428
  6,894
  7,378
  7,882
  8,407
  8,954
  9,524
  10,117
  10,737
  11,383
  12,058
  12,763
  13,499
  14,269
  15,075
  15,917
  16,798
  17,721
  18,687
  19,699
  20,758
  21,869
  23,032
  24,252
  25,531
  26,872
  28,278
  29,752
  31,299
  32,921
Total liabilities, $m
  7,037
  7,502
  7,987
  8,491
  9,016
  9,563
  10,132
  10,726
  11,345
  11,992
  12,667
  13,372
  14,108
  14,878
  15,683
  16,525
  17,407
  18,329
  19,295
  20,307
  21,367
  22,477
  23,641
  24,861
  26,140
  27,480
  28,886
  30,361
  31,908
  33,530
Total equity, $m
  782
  834
  887
  943
  1,002
  1,063
  1,126
  1,192
  1,261
  1,332
  1,407
  1,486
  1,568
  1,653
  1,743
  1,836
  1,934
  2,037
  2,144
  2,256
  2,374
  2,497
  2,627
  2,762
  2,904
  3,053
  3,210
  3,373
  3,545
  3,726
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,819
  8,336
  8,874
  9,434
  10,018
  10,626
  11,258
  11,918
  12,606
  13,324
  14,074
  14,858
  15,676
  16,531
  17,426
  18,361
  19,341
  20,366
  21,439
  22,563
  23,741
  24,974
  26,268
  27,623
  29,044
  30,533
  32,096
  33,734
  35,453
  37,256
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.220
  8.270
  8.310
  8.350
  8.390
  8.430
  8.460
  8.490
  8.520
  8.540
  8.570
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
  8.690
  8.700
  8.720
  8.730
  8.740
  8.760
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.820
  8.830
  8.840
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  23
  208
  264
  323
  385
  449
  517
  588
  662
  740
  1,084
  1,170
  1,260
  1,354
  1,453
  1,557
  1,667
  1,782
  1,903
  2,030
  2,164
  2,305
  2,453
  2,609
  2,773
  2,946
  3,128
  3,319
  3,520
  3,732
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  853
  885
  919
  955
  991
  1,030
  1,069
  1,111
  1,154
  1,200
  887
  937
  988
  1,042
  1,098
  1,157
  1,219
  1,284
  1,351
  1,422
  1,497
  1,574
  1,656
  1,741
  1,831
  1,925
  2,023
  2,126
  2,235
  2,348
Funds from operations, $m
  875
  1,093
  1,183
  1,278
  1,376
  1,479
  1,587
  1,699
  1,816
  1,940
  1,971
  2,106
  2,248
  2,396
  2,552
  2,715
  2,886
  3,066
  3,255
  3,453
  3,661
  3,879
  4,109
  4,351
  4,604
  4,871
  5,151
  5,446
  5,755
  6,081
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
Cash from operations, $m
  882
  1,100
  1,191
  1,285
  1,384
  1,487
  1,595
  1,708
  1,826
  1,949
  1,982
  2,117
  2,259
  2,408
  2,564
  2,728
  2,899
  3,080
  3,269
  3,468
  3,677
  3,896
  4,127
  4,369
  4,624
  4,891
  5,172
  5,468
  5,779
  6,105
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -462
  -493
  -525
  -559
  -595
  -631
  -670
  -710
  -751
  -795
  -840
  -887
  -937
  -988
  -1,042
  -1,098
  -1,157
  -1,219
  -1,284
  -1,351
  -1,422
  -1,497
  -1,574
  -1,656
  -1,741
  -1,831
  -1,925
  -2,023
  -2,126
  -2,235
New CAPEX, $m
  -312
  -326
  -339
  -353
  -368
  -383
  -399
  -416
  -434
  -453
  -473
  -494
  -516
  -539
  -564
  -590
  -617
  -646
  -677
  -709
  -742
  -778
  -815
  -854
  -896
  -939
  -985
  -1,033
  -1,083
  -1,136
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -774
  -819
  -864
  -912
  -963
  -1,014
  -1,069
  -1,126
  -1,185
  -1,248
  -1,313
  -1,381
  -1,453
  -1,527
  -1,606
  -1,688
  -1,774
  -1,865
  -1,961
  -2,060
  -2,164
  -2,275
  -2,389
  -2,510
  -2,637
  -2,770
  -2,910
  -3,056
  -3,209
  -3,371
Free cash flow, $m
  108
  281
  326
  373
  422
  473
  526
  582
  641
  702
  669
  736
  807
  880
  958
  1,039
  1,125
  1,214
  1,309
  1,408
  1,512
  1,622
  1,738
  1,859
  1,987
  2,121
  2,263
  2,412
  2,569
  2,734
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2,883
  466
  485
  504
  525
  547
  570
  594
  619
  646
  675
  705
  737
  770
  805
  842
  881
  923
  966
  1,012
  1,060
  1,110
  1,164
  1,220
  1,279
  1,341
  1,406
  1,475
  1,547
  1,622
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3,358
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  475
  466
  485
  504
  525
  547
  570
  594
  619
  646
  675
  705
  737
  770
  805
  842
  881
  923
  966
  1,012
  1,060
  1,110
  1,164
  1,220
  1,279
  1,341
  1,406
  1,475
  1,547
  1,622
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  584
  747
  811
  877
  947
  1,020
  1,096
  1,176
  1,260
  1,348
  1,344
  1,441
  1,543
  1,650
  1,763
  1,882
  2,006
  2,137
  2,275
  2,420
  2,572
  2,733
  2,901
  3,079
  3,266
  3,462
  3,669
  3,887
  4,116
  4,357
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3,381
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -2,797
  695
  757
  821
  888
  959
  1,033
  1,110
  1,191
  1,277
  1,269
  1,363
  1,461
  1,565
  1,674
  1,788
  1,908
  2,035
  2,168
  2,307
  2,454
  2,609
  2,772
  2,943
  3,123
  3,313
  3,513
  3,723
  3,944
  4,176
Discount rate, %
  14.50
  15.23
  15.99
  16.79
  17.62
  18.51
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.62
  24.80
  26.04
  27.34
  28.71
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.90
  36.64
  38.47
  40.40
  42.42
  44.54
  46.76
  49.10
  51.56
  54.14
  56.84
  59.68
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -2,443
  524
  485
  441
  395
  346
  298
  251
  208
  168
  123
  95
  72
  53
  38
  26
  18
  12
  7
  4
  3
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

SBA Communications Corporation owns and operates wireless communications tower structures, rooftops, and other structures that support antennas used for wireless communications in the United States and its territories, South America, Central America, and Canada. It operates through two segments, Site Leasing and Site Development. The company leases antenna space to wireless service providers on towers that it owns or operates; and manages rooftop and tower sites for property owners under various contractual arrangements. As of December 31, 2015, it owned 25,465 towers; and managed or leased approximately 5,500 actual or potential towers. The company also provides a range of site development services, including network pre-design; site audits; identification of potential locations for towers and antennas; support in buying or leasing of the location; assistance in obtaining zoning approvals and permits; tower and related site construction; antenna installation; and radio equipment installation, commissioning, and maintenance. SBA Communications Corporation is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SBA Communications (SBAC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SBAC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SBAC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1727.674 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SBA Communications. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of SBA Communications. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SBAC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.5%, whose default value for SBAC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SBA Communications, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SBA Communications.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SBAC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 24.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $863 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SBAC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for SBA Communications.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SBA Communications. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SBAC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SBAC are equal to 267.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SBA Communications operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SBAC is equal to -5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-2599.114 million for SBA Communications - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 117.543 million for SBA Communications is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SBA Communications at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $18.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Buy signal blares for cell-tower stocks in 2017   [Oct-31-17 04:44PM  Reuters]
▶ SBA Communications beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-30-17 04:11PM  Associated Press]

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