Intrinsic value of Sally Beauty Holdings - SBH

Previous Close

$17.20

  Intrinsic Value

$5.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-69%

Previous close

$17.20

 
Intrinsic value

$5.34

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SBH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Sally Beauty Holdings (SBH) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.38
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,938
  4,017
  4,109
  4,215
  4,333
  4,465
  4,609
  4,766
  4,936
  5,119
  5,315
  5,525
  5,750
  5,988
  6,242
  6,511
  6,797
  7,099
  7,418
  7,756
  8,112
  8,488
  8,885
  9,303
  9,743
  10,207
  10,695
  11,209
  11,750
  12,319
  12,918
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,510
  3,589
  3,680
  3,782
  3,895
  4,019
  4,154
  4,300
  4,458
  4,627
  4,754
  4,947
  5,152
  5,370
  5,602
  5,847
  6,107
  6,382
  6,673
  6,979
  7,303
  7,644
  8,003
  8,382
  8,781
  9,201
  9,644
  10,109
  10,599
  11,114
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,460
  3,510
  3,589
  3,680
  3,782
  3,895
  4,019
  4,154
  4,300
  4,458
  4,627
  4,754
  4,947
  5,152
  5,370
  5,602
  5,847
  6,107
  6,382
  6,673
  6,979
  7,303
  7,644
  8,003
  8,382
  8,781
  9,201
  9,644
  10,109
  10,599
  11,114
Operating income, $m
  479
  507
  520
  535
  551
  570
  590
  612
  636
  661
  689
  772
  803
  836
  872
  909
  949
  991
  1,036
  1,083
  1,133
  1,185
  1,241
  1,299
  1,361
  1,426
  1,494
  1,566
  1,641
  1,721
  1,804
EBITDA, $m
  591
  610
  624
  640
  658
  678
  700
  723
  749
  777
  807
  839
  873
  909
  948
  988
  1,032
  1,078
  1,126
  1,177
  1,231
  1,289
  1,349
  1,412
  1,479
  1,549
  1,624
  1,702
  1,784
  1,870
  1,961
Interest expense (income), $m
  142
  141
  99
  103
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  147
  154
  163
  171
  181
  191
  201
  212
  224
  236
  249
  263
  278
  293
  309
  326
  344
  363
  383
  404
Earnings before tax, $m
  346
  366
  421
  432
  445
  459
  474
  491
  509
  528
  549
  625
  649
  674
  700
  729
  759
  790
  824
  859
  897
  936
  978
  1,021
  1,068
  1,116
  1,167
  1,221
  1,278
  1,338
  1,400
Tax expense, $m
  131
  99
  114
  117
  120
  124
  128
  133
  137
  143
  148
  169
  175
  182
  189
  197
  205
  213
  222
  232
  242
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
Net income, $m
  215
  268
  307
  316
  325
  335
  346
  358
  372
  386
  401
  456
  473
  492
  511
  532
  554
  577
  601
  627
  655
  683
  714
  746
  779
  815
  852
  892
  933
  976
  1,022

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,123
  2,100
  2,148
  2,203
  2,265
  2,334
  2,409
  2,491
  2,580
  2,676
  2,778
  2,888
  3,006
  3,130
  3,263
  3,404
  3,553
  3,711
  3,878
  4,054
  4,240
  4,437
  4,644
  4,863
  5,093
  5,336
  5,591
  5,860
  6,142
  6,440
  6,753
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,059
  2,100
  2,148
  2,203
  2,265
  2,334
  2,409
  2,491
  2,580
  2,676
  2,778
  2,888
  3,006
  3,130
  3,263
  3,404
  3,553
  3,711
  3,878
  4,054
  4,240
  4,437
  4,644
  4,863
  5,093
  5,336
  5,591
  5,860
  6,142
  6,440
  6,753
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
  1.913
Average production assets, $m
  403
  410
  419
  430
  442
  455
  470
  486
  503
  522
  542
  564
  586
  611
  637
  664
  693
  724
  757
  791
  827
  866
  906
  949
  994
  1,041
  1,091
  1,143
  1,199
  1,257
  1,318
Working capital, $m
  596
  639
  653
  670
  689
  710
  733
  758
  785
  814
  845
  879
  914
  952
  992
  1,035
  1,081
  1,129
  1,179
  1,233
  1,290
  1,350
  1,413
  1,479
  1,549
  1,623
  1,701
  1,782
  1,868
  1,959
  2,054
Total debt, $m
  1,868
  1,271
  1,314
  1,364
  1,420
  1,481
  1,549
  1,623
  1,703
  1,789
  1,882
  1,980
  2,086
  2,198
  2,318
  2,444
  2,579
  2,721
  2,871
  3,030
  3,197
  3,374
  3,561
  3,758
  3,965
  4,183
  4,413
  4,655
  4,909
  5,177
  5,458
Total liabilities, $m
  2,487
  1,890
  1,933
  1,983
  2,039
  2,100
  2,168
  2,242
  2,322
  2,408
  2,501
  2,599
  2,705
  2,817
  2,937
  3,063
  3,198
  3,340
  3,490
  3,649
  3,816
  3,993
  4,180
  4,377
  4,584
  4,802
  5,032
  5,274
  5,528
  5,796
  6,077
Total equity, $m
  -364
  210
  215
  220
  227
  233
  241
  249
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  326
  340
  355
  371
  388
  405
  424
  444
  464
  486
  509
  534
  559
  586
  614
  644
  675
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,123
  2,100
  2,148
  2,203
  2,266
  2,333
  2,409
  2,491
  2,580
  2,676
  2,779
  2,888
  3,006
  3,130
  3,263
  3,403
  3,553
  3,711
  3,878
  4,054
  4,240
  4,437
  4,644
  4,863
  5,093
  5,336
  5,591
  5,860
  6,142
  6,440
  6,752
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -5.132
  6.050
  6.120
  6.190
  6.270
  6.350
  6.430
  6.520
  6.600
  6.690
  6.770
  6.860
  6.940
  7.020
  7.100
  7.180
  7.260
  7.330
  7.400
  7.470
  7.540
  7.600
  7.670
  7.730
  7.780
  7.840
  7.890
  7.940
  7.990
  8.040
  8.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.208
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  215
  268
  307
  316
  325
  335
  346
  358
  372
  386
  401
  456
  473
  492
  511
  532
  554
  577
  601
  627
  655
  683
  714
  746
  779
  815
  852
  892
  933
  976
  1,022
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  112
  103
  104
  105
  106
  108
  110
  112
  114
  116
  118
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  143
  150
  157
Funds from operations, $m
  295
  370
  411
  421
  431
  443
  456
  470
  485
  502
  519
  523
  543
  564
  587
  611
  636
  663
  691
  721
  753
  786
  822
  859
  898
  939
  982
  1,028
  1,076
  1,126
  1,179
Change in working capital, $m
  -49
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
Cash from operations, $m
  344
  358
  396
  404
  412
  422
  433
  445
  458
  472
  488
  490
  508
  527
  547
  568
  591
  615
  641
  668
  696
  727
  759
  792
  828
  865
  904
  946
  990
  1,036
  1,084
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -48
  -49
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
New CAPEX, $m
  -90
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -90
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
Free cash flow, $m
  254
  303
  338
  343
  349
  356
  364
  373
  383
  394
  406
  404
  418
  432
  448
  465
  483
  502
  522
  543
  566
  590
  615
  642
  670
  699
  731
  764
  798
  835
  873
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  61
  -533
  43
  50
  56
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  112
  119
  127
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  230
  242
  254
  268
  282
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -329
  306
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -278
  -227
  43
  50
  56
  62
  68
  74
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  112
  119
  127
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  230
  242
  254
  268
  282
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -23
  76
  382
  393
  405
  418
  432
  447
  463
  480
  498
  503
  523
  545
  567
  592
  617
  644
  672
  702
  734
  767
  802
  838
  877
  918
  960
  1,005
  1,053
  1,103
  1,155
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  88
  -574
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -498
  377
  387
  399
  411
  424
  439
  454
  470
  488
  492
  511
  532
  554
  577
  602
  628
  655
  684
  715
  747
  781
  816
  854
  893
  935
  979
  1,025
  1,073
  1,124
Discount rate, %
 
  13.10
  13.76
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.56
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.34
  22.41
  23.53
  24.70
  25.94
  27.23
  28.60
  30.03
  31.53
  33.10
  34.76
  36.50
  38.32
  40.24
  42.25
  44.36
  46.58
  48.91
  51.35
  53.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -440
  291
  258
  227
  196
  168
  141
  117
  96
  77
  59
  45
  34
  25
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. is an international specialty retailer and distributor of professional beauty supplies with operations primarily in North America, South America and Europe. The Company operates through two business segments: Sally Beauty Supply and Beauty Systems Group (BSG). Sally Beauty Supply is a domestic and international chain of cash and carry retail stores, which offers professional beauty supplies to both salon professionals and retail customers primarily in North America, Puerto Rico, and parts of Europe and South America. BSG, including its franchise-based business Armstrong McCall, is a full service beauty supply distributor, which offers professional brands of beauty products directly to salons and salon professionals through its own sales force and professional-only stores (including franchise stores) in partially exclusive geographical territories in North America and parts of Europe.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sally Beauty Holdings (SBH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.4
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book -6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 8.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -40.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -486.8%
Total Debt to Equity -513.2%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 14.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Return On Total Capital 14.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Return On Equity -67.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -72.6%
Asset Turnover 1.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.7%
EBITDA Margin 15.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.1%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Effective Tax Rate 37.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SBH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SBH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3938 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sally Beauty Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Sally Beauty Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SBH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.1%, whose default value for SBH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sally Beauty Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sally Beauty Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SBH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SBH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.8% for Sally Beauty Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sally Beauty Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SBH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SBH are equal to 10.2%.

Life of production assets of 8.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sally Beauty Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SBH is equal to 15.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-364 million for Sally Beauty Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 126.333 million for Sally Beauty Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sally Beauty Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. Announces First Quarter Results   [Feb-08-18 06:45AM  Business Wire]
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▶ 4 Best Stocks to Counter First Government Shutdown Since 13   [Jan-22-18 11:25AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ [$$] Bad Hair Day   [Dec-11-17 06:00AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Sally Beauty misses Street 4Q forecasts   [07:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ Will Amazon Buy Sally Beauty Supply?   [02:50PM  Benzinga]
▶ 6 Gurus' Stocks With Negative Performances   [Oct-13-17 12:49PM  GuruFocus.com]
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▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [Aug-28-17 12:26PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for August 11th   [Aug-11-17 08:28AM  Zacks]
▶ Sally Beauty tops 3Q profit forecasts   [Aug-03-17 08:44AM  Associated Press]
▶ Cheap Stocks With Growing EPS   [Jun-22-17 03:29PM  GuruFocus.com]
Financial statements of SBH
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