Intrinsic value of Southside Bancshares - SBSI

Previous Close

$35.63

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$35.63

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as SBSI.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SBSI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  279
  293
  307
  322
  338
  354
  372
  390
  409
  429
  450
  473
  496
  521
  546
  573
  602
  632
  663
  696
  731
Variable operating expenses, $m
  119
  125
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  251
  264
  277
  290
  305
  320
  336
  352
  370
  388
  408
  428
  449
  471
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  119
  125
  130
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  251
  264
  277
  290
  305
  320
  336
  352
  370
  388
  408
  428
  449
  471
Operating income, $m
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
EBITDA, $m
  697
  728
  762
  797
  834
  874
  915
  959
  1,005
  1,053
  1,104
  1,157
  1,213
  1,272
  1,335
  1,400
  1,469
  1,541
  1,617
  1,696
  1,780
  1,868
  1,961
  2,058
  2,160
  2,267
  2,380
  2,498
  2,622
  2,753
Interest expense (income), $m
  27
  314
  299
  310
  321
  332
  345
  358
  371
  386
  401
  417
  434
  451
  470
  490
  510
  532
  554
  578
  603
  630
  658
  687
  717
  749
  783
  819
  856
  895
  936
Earnings before tax, $m
  -249
  -230
  -238
  -245
  -254
  -262
  -271
  -281
  -291
  -302
  -313
  -325
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -426
  -444
  -462
  -481
  -502
  -523
  -546
  -569
  -594
  -620
  -648
  -677
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -249
  -230
  -238
  -245
  -254
  -262
  -271
  -281
  -291
  -302
  -313
  -325
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -426
  -444
  -462
  -481
  -502
  -523
  -546
  -569
  -594
  -620
  -648
  -677

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,743
  4,958
  5,186
  5,427
  5,680
  5,948
  6,229
  6,526
  6,838
  7,167
  7,512
  7,876
  8,259
  8,661
  9,084
  9,529
  9,997
  10,489
  11,005
  11,548
  12,118
  12,718
  13,347
  14,009
  14,703
  15,433
  16,200
  17,005
  17,851
  18,739
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,743
  4,958
  5,186
  5,427
  5,680
  5,948
  6,229
  6,526
  6,838
  7,167
  7,512
  7,876
  8,259
  8,661
  9,084
  9,529
  9,997
  10,489
  11,005
  11,548
  12,118
  12,718
  13,347
  14,009
  14,703
  15,433
  16,200
  17,005
  17,851
  18,739
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
  0.039
Average production assets, $m
  6,311
  6,598
  6,901
  7,221
  7,558
  7,914
  8,288
  8,683
  9,099
  9,536
  9,996
  10,480
  10,989
  11,525
  12,088
  12,680
  13,302
  13,956
  14,643
  15,366
  16,125
  16,922
  17,760
  18,640
  19,564
  20,536
  21,556
  22,627
  23,753
  24,935
Working capital, $m
  -5,776
  -6,039
  -6,316
  -6,609
  -6,918
  -7,243
  -7,586
  -7,947
  -8,327
  -8,728
  -9,149
  -9,592
  -10,058
  -10,548
  -11,063
  -11,605
  -12,174
  -12,773
  -13,402
  -14,063
  -14,758
  -15,488
  -16,254
  -17,060
  -17,906
  -18,795
  -19,729
  -20,709
  -21,739
  -22,821
Total debt, $m
  5,538
  5,733
  5,938
  6,154
  6,382
  6,623
  6,876
  7,143
  7,424
  7,720
  8,031
  8,359
  8,703
  9,065
  9,446
  9,846
  10,267
  10,710
  11,175
  11,663
  12,176
  12,716
  13,282
  13,878
  14,503
  15,160
  15,850
  16,575
  17,336
  18,135
Total liabilities, $m
  4,268
  4,463
  4,668
  4,884
  5,112
  5,353
  5,606
  5,873
  6,154
  6,450
  6,761
  7,089
  7,433
  7,795
  8,176
  8,576
  8,997
  9,440
  9,905
  10,393
  10,906
  11,446
  12,012
  12,608
  13,233
  13,890
  14,580
  15,305
  16,066
  16,866
Total equity, $m
  474
  496
  519
  543
  568
  595
  623
  653
  684
  717
  751
  788
  826
  866
  908
  953
  1,000
  1,049
  1,101
  1,155
  1,212
  1,272
  1,335
  1,401
  1,470
  1,543
  1,620
  1,701
  1,785
  1,874
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,742
  4,959
  5,187
  5,427
  5,680
  5,948
  6,229
  6,526
  6,838
  7,167
  7,512
  7,877
  8,259
  8,661
  9,084
  9,529
  9,997
  10,489
  11,006
  11,548
  12,118
  12,718
  13,347
  14,009
  14,703
  15,433
  16,200
  17,006
  17,851
  18,740
Debt-to-equity ratio
  11.680
  11.560
  11.450
  11.340
  11.240
  11.140
  11.040
  10.950
  10.860
  10.770
  10.690
  10.610
  10.540
  10.470
  10.400
  10.330
  10.270
  10.210
  10.150
  10.100
  10.050
  10.000
  9.950
  9.910
  9.860
  9.820
  9.780
  9.750
  9.710
  9.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -249
  -230
  -238
  -245
  -254
  -262
  -271
  -281
  -291
  -302
  -313
  -325
  -337
  -350
  -364
  -378
  -393
  -409
  -426
  -444
  -462
  -481
  -502
  -523
  -546
  -569
  -594
  -620
  -648
  -677
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  631
  660
  690
  722
  756
  791
  829
  868
  910
  954
  1,000
  1,048
  1,099
  1,152
  1,209
  1,268
  1,330
  1,396
  1,464
  1,537
  1,612
  1,692
  1,776
  1,864
  1,956
  2,054
  2,156
  2,263
  2,375
  2,493
Funds from operations, $m
  382
  429
  452
  477
  502
  529
  557
  587
  619
  652
  687
  723
  762
  802
  845
  890
  937
  986
  1,038
  1,093
  1,150
  1,211
  1,274
  1,341
  1,411
  1,484
  1,561
  1,642
  1,727
  1,817
Change in working capital, $m
  -249
  -263
  -277
  -293
  -309
  -325
  -343
  -361
  -380
  -400
  -421
  -443
  -466
  -490
  -515
  -542
  -569
  -599
  -629
  -661
  -695
  -730
  -767
  -806
  -846
  -889
  -934
  -981
  -1,030
  -1,082
Cash from operations, $m
  631
  692
  730
  769
  811
  855
  900
  948
  999
  1,052
  1,108
  1,166
  1,228
  1,293
  1,360
  1,432
  1,506
  1,585
  1,667
  1,754
  1,845
  1,941
  2,041
  2,146
  2,257
  2,373
  2,495
  2,623
  2,757
  2,899
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -603
  -631
  -660
  -690
  -722
  -756
  -791
  -829
  -868
  -910
  -954
  -1,000
  -1,048
  -1,099
  -1,152
  -1,209
  -1,268
  -1,330
  -1,396
  -1,464
  -1,537
  -1,612
  -1,692
  -1,776
  -1,864
  -1,956
  -2,054
  -2,156
  -2,263
  -2,375
New CAPEX, $m
  -280
  -287
  -303
  -320
  -337
  -356
  -375
  -395
  -415
  -437
  -460
  -484
  -509
  -535
  -563
  -592
  -622
  -654
  -687
  -722
  -759
  -797
  -838
  -880
  -925
  -971
  -1,020
  -1,072
  -1,125
  -1,182
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -883
  -918
  -963
  -1,010
  -1,059
  -1,112
  -1,166
  -1,224
  -1,283
  -1,347
  -1,414
  -1,484
  -1,557
  -1,634
  -1,715
  -1,801
  -1,890
  -1,984
  -2,083
  -2,186
  -2,296
  -2,409
  -2,530
  -2,656
  -2,789
  -2,927
  -3,074
  -3,228
  -3,388
  -3,557
Free cash flow, $m
  -252
  -226
  -233
  -241
  -249
  -257
  -266
  -275
  -285
  -295
  -306
  -317
  -329
  -342
  -355
  -369
  -384
  -399
  -415
  -433
  -450
  -469
  -489
  -510
  -532
  -555
  -579
  -604
  -631
  -659
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -283
  194
  205
  216
  228
  241
  253
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  344
  362
  381
  400
  421
  442
  465
  489
  513
  539
  567
  595
  625
  657
  690
  725
  761
  800
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  759
  252
  261
  270
  279
  289
  300
  311
  322
  335
  347
  361
  375
  390
  406
  423
  440
  458
  478
  498
  519
  541
  565
  589
  615
  642
  671
  701
  732
  766
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  476
  446
  466
  486
  507
  530
  553
  578
  603
  631
  658
  688
  719
  752
  787
  823
  861
  900
  943
  987
  1,032
  1,080
  1,132
  1,184
  1,240
  1,299
  1,361
  1,426
  1,493
  1,566
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  225
  220
  232
  245
  259
  273
  287
  303
  319
  335
  353
  371
  390
  411
  432
  454
  477
  501
  527
  554
  582
  611
  642
  675
  709
  745
  782
  822
  863
  906
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -759
  -252
  -261
  -270
  -279
  -289
  -300
  -311
  -322
  -335
  -347
  -361
  -375
  -390
  -406
  -423
  -440
  -458
  -478
  -498
  -519
  -541
  -565
  -589
  -615
  -642
  -671
  -701
  -732
  -766
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -499
  -32
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -12
  -8
  -4
  1
  5
  10
  15
  20
  26
  31
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  70
  78
  85
  94
  102
  111
  121
  130
  141
Discount rate, %
  14.20
  14.91
  15.66
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
  25.50
  26.78
  28.12
  29.52
  31.00
  32.55
  34.17
  35.88
  37.68
  39.56
  41.54
  43.62
  45.80
  48.09
  50.49
  53.02
  55.67
  58.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -437
  -24
  -18
  -13
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -2
  -1
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  32.7
  21.4
  14.1
  9.3
  6.2
  4.1
  2.7
  1.8
  1.2
  0.8
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Southside Bancshares, Inc. (Southside) is a bank holding company for Southside Bank (the Bank). The Company is a community-focused financial institution that offers a range of financial services to individuals, businesses, municipal entities, and nonprofit organizations in the communities. These services include consumer and commercial loans, deposit accounts, trust services, safe deposit services and brokerage services. As of December 31, 2016, the Company operated through 60 banking centers, 17 of which are located in grocery stores. The Company offers a range of deposit accounts with a range of interest rates and terms, including savings, money market, interest and non-interest bearing checking accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Southside Bancshares (SBSI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.3
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12
Price to Free Cash Flow 13
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 75%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 3.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 31.9%
Total Debt to Equity 31.9%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Return On Total Capital 8.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Return On Equity 10.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 18.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Payout Ratio 53.1%

SBSI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SBSI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $177 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Southside Bancshares. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Southside Bancshares. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SBSI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.2%, whose default value for SBSI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Southside Bancshares, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Southside Bancshares.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SBSI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 64.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SBSI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Southside Bancshares.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Southside Bancshares. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SBSI stock is equal to 1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SBSI are equal to 3411.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Southside Bancshares operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SBSI is equal to -3122.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $0 million for Southside Bancshares - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29 million for Southside Bancshares is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Southside Bancshares at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Southside Bancshares, Inc. Declares Cash Dividend   [Aug-09-18 06:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Southside Bancshares, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Jul-27-18 08:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Southside Bancshares: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [09:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Southside Bancshares posts 4Q profit   [06:47AM  Associated Press]
▶ Southside Bancshares, Inc. Declares Cash Dividend   [Feb-01-18 05:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Top Dividend Paying Stocks   [Jan-18-18 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Southside Bancshares Inc (SBSI)?   [Dec-11-17 07:58PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ December Top Dividend Stocks To Look Out For   [08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Southside Bancshares, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Oct-27-17 07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Southside Bancshares posts 3Q profit   [06:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Southside Bancshares, Inc. Declares Cash Dividend   [Aug-03-17 05:31PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Southside Bancshares posts 2Q profit   [Jul-28-17 09:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for June 30th   [Jun-30-17 10:46AM  Zacks]
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