Intrinsic value of comScore, Inc. - SCOR

Previous Close

$10.81

  Intrinsic Value

$2.20

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-80%

Previous close

$10.81

 
Intrinsic value

$2.20

 
Up/down potential

-80%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCOR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  445
  472
  500
  530
  560
  592
  626
  661
  697
  735
  775
  817
  860
  906
  954
  1,004
  1,056
  1,111
  1,168
  1,229
  1,292
  1,358
  1,428
  1,501
  1,577
  1,657
  1,742
  1,830
  1,922
  2,020
Variable operating expenses, $m
  771
  818
  866
  917
  970
  1,025
  1,083
  1,143
  1,206
  1,272
  1,338
  1,410
  1,485
  1,564
  1,646
  1,733
  1,823
  1,918
  2,017
  2,121
  2,231
  2,345
  2,465
  2,591
  2,723
  2,862
  3,007
  3,159
  3,319
  3,487
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  771
  818
  866
  917
  970
  1,025
  1,083
  1,143
  1,206
  1,272
  1,338
  1,410
  1,485
  1,564
  1,646
  1,733
  1,823
  1,918
  2,017
  2,121
  2,231
  2,345
  2,465
  2,591
  2,723
  2,862
  3,007
  3,159
  3,319
  3,487
Operating income, $m
  -326
  -346
  -366
  -387
  -410
  -433
  -457
  -483
  -509
  -537
  -563
  -593
  -625
  -658
  -693
  -729
  -767
  -807
  -849
  -893
  -939
  -987
  -1,037
  -1,090
  -1,146
  -1,204
  -1,265
  -1,329
  -1,397
  -1,467
EBITDA, $m
  -296
  -314
  -332
  -352
  -372
  -394
  -416
  -439
  -463
  -488
  -515
  -543
  -572
  -602
  -634
  -667
  -702
  -738
  -777
  -817
  -859
  -903
  -949
  -997
  -1,048
  -1,101
  -1,157
  -1,216
  -1,278
  -1,342
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
Earnings before tax, $m
  -336
  -357
  -379
  -401
  -425
  -450
  -476
  -503
  -531
  -561
  -589
  -621
  -655
  -691
  -728
  -767
  -807
  -850
  -895
  -941
  -990
  -1,042
  -1,096
  -1,152
  -1,212
  -1,274
  -1,339
  -1,408
  -1,480
  -1,555
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -336
  -357
  -379
  -401
  -425
  -450
  -476
  -503
  -531
  -561
  -589
  -621
  -655
  -691
  -728
  -767
  -807
  -850
  -895
  -941
  -990
  -1,042
  -1,096
  -1,152
  -1,212
  -1,274
  -1,339
  -1,408
  -1,480
  -1,555

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,014
  1,075
  1,139
  1,206
  1,276
  1,349
  1,425
  1,505
  1,588
  1,674
  1,765
  1,860
  1,959
  2,063
  2,172
  2,286
  2,405
  2,530
  2,662
  2,799
  2,943
  3,094
  3,252
  3,418
  3,593
  3,775
  3,967
  4,168
  4,379
  4,601
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,014
  1,075
  1,139
  1,206
  1,276
  1,349
  1,425
  1,505
  1,588
  1,674
  1,765
  1,860
  1,959
  2,063
  2,172
  2,286
  2,405
  2,530
  2,662
  2,799
  2,943
  3,094
  3,252
  3,418
  3,593
  3,775
  3,967
  4,168
  4,379
  4,601
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
  0.439
Average production assets, $m
  447
  474
  502
  532
  563
  595
  628
  663
  700
  738
  778
  820
  864
  909
  957
  1,008
  1,060
  1,115
  1,173
  1,234
  1,297
  1,364
  1,433
  1,507
  1,583
  1,664
  1,748
  1,837
  1,930
  2,028
Working capital, $m
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -208
  -218
  -230
  -241
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -294
  -309
  -325
  -341
Total debt, $m
  206
  232
  259
  287
  317
  348
  380
  413
  448
  485
  523
  563
  605
  649
  695
  743
  793
  846
  902
  960
  1,020
  1,084
  1,151
  1,221
  1,294
  1,372
  1,452
  1,537
  1,626
  1,720
Total liabilities, $m
  428
  454
  481
  509
  539
  569
  601
  635
  670
  707
  745
  785
  827
  871
  917
  965
  1,015
  1,068
  1,123
  1,181
  1,242
  1,306
  1,372
  1,443
  1,516
  1,593
  1,674
  1,759
  1,848
  1,941
Total equity, $m
  586
  621
  659
  697
  738
  780
  824
  870
  918
  968
  1,020
  1,075
  1,132
  1,193
  1,255
  1,321
  1,390
  1,463
  1,538
  1,618
  1,701
  1,788
  1,880
  1,976
  2,077
  2,182
  2,293
  2,409
  2,531
  2,659
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,014
  1,075
  1,140
  1,206
  1,277
  1,349
  1,425
  1,505
  1,588
  1,675
  1,765
  1,860
  1,959
  2,064
  2,172
  2,286
  2,405
  2,531
  2,661
  2,799
  2,943
  3,094
  3,252
  3,419
  3,593
  3,775
  3,967
  4,168
  4,379
  4,600
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.350
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.450
  0.460
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578
  0.578

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -336
  -357
  -379
  -401
  -425
  -450
  -476
  -503
  -531
  -561
  -589
  -621
  -655
  -691
  -728
  -767
  -807
  -850
  -895
  -941
  -990
  -1,042
  -1,096
  -1,152
  -1,212
  -1,274
  -1,339
  -1,408
  -1,480
  -1,555
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
Funds from operations, $m
  -305
  -325
  -345
  -366
  -388
  -411
  -435
  -459
  -485
  -513
  -541
  -571
  -602
  -635
  -669
  -704
  -742
  -781
  -822
  -865
  -910
  -958
  -1,007
  -1,059
  -1,114
  -1,171
  -1,231
  -1,294
  -1,361
  -1,430
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Cash from operations, $m
  -301
  -320
  -340
  -361
  -383
  -405
  -429
  -454
  -479
  -506
  -534
  -564
  -595
  -627
  -661
  -696
  -733
  -772
  -812
  -855
  -900
  -947
  -996
  -1,047
  -1,101
  -1,158
  -1,217
  -1,280
  -1,345
  -1,414
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
New CAPEX, $m
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -187
  -197
  -206
  -217
Free cash flow, $m
  -353
  -375
  -398
  -422
  -446
  -472
  -499
  -527
  -557
  -588
  -620
  -654
  -689
  -726
  -765
  -805
  -848
  -892
  -939
  -988
  -1,039
  -1,093
  -1,150
  -1,209
  -1,271
  -1,336
  -1,404
  -1,476
  -1,551
  -1,630
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  370
  392
  416
  440
  466
  492
  520
  549
  579
  611
  642
  676
  713
  751
  791
  833
  876
  922
  970
  1,021
  1,074
  1,129
  1,187
  1,248
  1,312
  1,380
  1,450
  1,524
  1,602
  1,683
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  395
  418
  443
  468
  495
  523
  552
  583
  614
  648
  680
  716
  755
  795
  837
  881
  926
  975
  1,025
  1,079
  1,135
  1,193
  1,254
  1,318
  1,386
  1,457
  1,531
  1,609
  1,691
  1,776
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -370
  -392
  -416
  -440
  -466
  -492
  -520
  -549
  -579
  -611
  -642
  -676
  -713
  -751
  -791
  -833
  -876
  -922
  -970
  -1,021
  -1,074
  -1,129
  -1,187
  -1,248
  -1,312
  -1,380
  -1,450
  -1,524
  -1,602
  -1,683
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -328
  -349
  -371
  -393
  -417
  -441
  -467
  -494
  -522
  -551
  -582
  -614
  -647
  -682
  -719
  -757
  -797
  -840
  -884
  -930
  -979
  -1,029
  -1,083
  -1,139
  -1,197
  -1,259
  -1,324
  -1,391
  -1,462
  -1,537
Discount rate, %
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -307
  -305
  -299
  -292
  -282
  -270
  -256
  -240
  -223
  -205
  -186
  -167
  -148
  -129
  -111
  -94
  -78
  -64
  -52
  -41
  -32
  -24
  -18
  -13
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  63.5
  40.4
  25.7
  16.3
  10.4
  6.6
  4.2
  2.7
  1.7
  1.1
  0.7
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  comScore, Inc. (SCOR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SCOR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCOR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $419 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by comScore, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of comScore, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCOR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for SCOR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of comScore, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of comScore, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCOR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 173.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCOR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for comScore, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for comScore, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCOR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCOR are equal to 100.4%.

Life of production assets of 16.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in comScore, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCOR is equal to -16.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $551.567 million for comScore, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.588 million for comScore, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of comScore, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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