Intrinsic value of comScore - SCOR

Previous Close

$19.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$19.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCOR stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  412
  421
  432
  444
  458
  472
  488
  506
  525
  545
  566
  589
  614
  640
  667
  696
  727
  760
  795
  831
  870
  910
  953
  998
  1,046
  1,096
  1,149
  1,204
  1,262
  1,324
Variable operating expenses, $m
  545
  556
  568
  582
  597
  614
  632
  652
  673
  696
  640
  666
  694
  723
  754
  787
  822
  859
  898
  940
  983
  1,029
  1,077
  1,128
  1,182
  1,239
  1,298
  1,361
  1,427
  1,496
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  545
  556
  568
  582
  597
  614
  632
  652
  673
  696
  640
  666
  694
  723
  754
  787
  822
  859
  898
  940
  983
  1,029
  1,077
  1,128
  1,182
  1,239
  1,298
  1,361
  1,427
  1,496
Operating income, $m
  -134
  -135
  -136
  -138
  -140
  -142
  -144
  -146
  -149
  -151
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
EBITDA, $m
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
Earnings before tax, $m
  -134
  -135
  -137
  -140
  -142
  -145
  -148
  -151
  -154
  -158
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -134
  -135
  -137
  -140
  -142
  -145
  -148
  -151
  -154
  -158
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,042
  1,066
  1,093
  1,124
  1,158
  1,196
  1,236
  1,280
  1,328
  1,379
  1,433
  1,492
  1,554
  1,619
  1,689
  1,763
  1,842
  1,925
  2,012
  2,105
  2,202
  2,305
  2,413
  2,528
  2,648
  2,775
  2,908
  3,048
  3,196
  3,351
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,042
  1,066
  1,093
  1,124
  1,158
  1,196
  1,236
  1,280
  1,328
  1,379
  1,433
  1,492
  1,554
  1,619
  1,689
  1,763
  1,842
  1,925
  2,012
  2,105
  2,202
  2,305
  2,413
  2,528
  2,648
  2,775
  2,908
  3,048
  3,196
  3,351
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.396
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
Average production assets, $m
  453
  463
  475
  488
  503
  520
  537
  556
  577
  599
  623
  648
  675
  704
  734
  766
  800
  836
  874
  914
  957
  1,002
  1,049
  1,098
  1,151
  1,206
  1,264
  1,325
  1,389
  1,456
Working capital, $m
  -118
  -121
  -124
  -127
  -131
  -136
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -200
  -209
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -274
  -287
  -300
  -315
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -380
Total debt, $m
  7
  16
  26
  37
  49
  62
  77
  92
  109
  128
  147
  168
  190
  214
  239
  265
  293
  323
  354
  387
  422
  459
  498
  539
  582
  627
  675
  725
  778
  834
Total liabilities, $m
  373
  382
  391
  402
  415
  428
  443
  458
  475
  494
  513
  534
  556
  580
  605
  631
  659
  689
  720
  753
  788
  825
  864
  905
  948
  993
  1,041
  1,091
  1,144
  1,200
Total equity, $m
  669
  684
  702
  722
  744
  768
  794
  822
  853
  885
  920
  958
  997
  1,040
  1,085
  1,132
  1,182
  1,236
  1,292
  1,351
  1,414
  1,480
  1,549
  1,623
  1,700
  1,781
  1,867
  1,957
  2,052
  2,152
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,042
  1,066
  1,093
  1,124
  1,159
  1,196
  1,237
  1,280
  1,328
  1,379
  1,433
  1,492
  1,553
  1,620
  1,690
  1,763
  1,841
  1,925
  2,012
  2,104
  2,202
  2,305
  2,413
  2,528
  2,648
  2,774
  2,908
  3,048
  3,196
  3,352
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.010
  0.020
  0.040
  0.050
  0.070
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642
  0.642

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -134
  -135
  -137
  -140
  -142
  -145
  -148
  -151
  -154
  -158
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -210
  -221
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  111
  112
  113
  113
  114
  116
  117
  118
  119
  121
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
Funds from operations, $m
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -103
  -109
  -116
  -122
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
Cash from operations, $m
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -65
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
Free cash flow, $m
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -267
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  146
  151
  155
  159
  164
  169
  174
  179
  185
  191
  117
  123
  130
  138
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  223
  235
  247
  261
  275
  289
  305
  321
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  153
  160
  165
  170
  176
  182
  189
  195
  202
  209
  137
  144
  152
  162
  170
  180
  190
  201
  211
  223
  235
  248
  262
  276
  290
  306
  323
  339
  358
  377
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  94
  97
  100
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
  114
  116
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  52
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  105
  110
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -146
  -151
  -155
  -159
  -164
  -169
  -174
  -179
  -185
  -191
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -261
  -275
  -289
  -305
  -321
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -52
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -50
  -49
  -48
  -47
  -46
  -45
  -44
  -42
  -41
  -39
  -37
  -35
  -33
  -31
  -28
  -26
  -23
  -21
  -18
  -16
  -14
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  88.5
  78.3
  69.2
  61.1
  54.0
  47.7
  42.1
  37.2
  32.9
  29.1
  27.1
  25.1
  23.3
  21.5
  19.9
  18.4
  17.0
  15.7
  14.5
  13.3
  12.3
  11.3
  10.4
  9.5
  8.8
  8.0
  7.4
  6.8
  6.2
  5.7

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  comScore (SCOR)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SCOR stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCOR stock intrinsic value calculation we used $403.549 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by comScore. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of comScore. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCOR stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SCOR is calculated based on our internal credit rating of comScore, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of comScore.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCOR stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 132.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCOR stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.3% for comScore.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for comScore. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCOR stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCOR are equal to 110%.

Life of production assets of 14.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in comScore operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCOR is equal to -28.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $656.492 million for comScore - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 57.9 million for comScore is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of comScore at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ComScore Taps 360is Sarah Hofstetter As President   [Sep-05-18 08:05PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ ComScore Taps 360i's Sarah Hofstetter As President   [07:00AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ How comScore helped select the release date of Michael Moore's new Trump documentary   [Aug-23-18 08:26AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ComScore: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [Aug-09-18 05:53PM  Associated Press]
▶ ComScore to Debut First Ad Product Under New CEO   [07:02AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Are comScore Incs (NASDAQ:SCOR) Interest Costs Too High?   [Jun-07-18 12:18PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Exclusive: How comScores new CEO envisions its future   [Jun-04-18 05:47PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ComScore: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 06:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ comScore Seals Deal with Paramount Pictures   [Apr-25-18 10:00AM  PR Newswire]

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