Intrinsic value of Scansource - SCSC

Previous Close

$35.00

  Intrinsic Value

$35.92

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+3%

Previous close

$35.00

 
Intrinsic value

$35.92

 
Up/down potential

+3%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCSC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.79
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
  4.98
  4.98
  4.98
Revenue, $m
  3,568
  3,732
  3,905
  4,088
  4,280
  4,483
  4,697
  4,922
  5,158
  5,407
  5,669
  5,945
  6,235
  6,539
  6,860
  7,196
  7,550
  7,922
  8,313
  8,724
  9,155
  9,608
  10,085
  10,585
  11,110
  11,662
  12,242
  12,851
  13,491
  14,162
  14,868
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,630
  3,798
  3,975
  4,161
  4,357
  4,564
  4,781
  5,010
  5,251
  5,504
  5,751
  6,031
  6,326
  6,636
  6,961
  7,304
  7,664
  8,042
  8,439
  8,856
  9,295
  9,755
  10,239
  10,748
  11,282
  11,843
  12,432
  13,050
  13,700
  14,383
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,480
  3,630
  3,798
  3,975
  4,161
  4,357
  4,564
  4,781
  5,010
  5,251
  5,504
  5,751
  6,031
  6,326
  6,636
  6,961
  7,304
  7,664
  8,042
  8,439
  8,856
  9,295
  9,755
  10,239
  10,748
  11,282
  11,843
  12,432
  13,050
  13,700
  14,383
Operating income, $m
  88
  102
  107
  113
  120
  126
  133
  141
  148
  156
  165
  194
  203
  213
  224
  235
  246
  259
  271
  285
  299
  314
  329
  345
  363
  381
  400
  419
  440
  462
  485
EBITDA, $m
  113
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  194
  204
  214
  224
  235
  247
  259
  272
  285
  299
  314
  329
  346
  363
  381
  400
  419
  440
  462
  485
  509
  535
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  5
  6
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  22
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
Earnings before tax, $m
  102
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  172
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  230
  240
  251
  262
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  341
  357
  373
  390
Tax expense, $m
  33
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  47
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
Net income, $m
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  285

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,718
  1,738
  1,819
  1,904
  1,994
  2,088
  2,188
  2,292
  2,403
  2,519
  2,641
  2,769
  2,904
  3,046
  3,195
  3,352
  3,517
  3,690
  3,872
  4,063
  4,264
  4,475
  4,697
  4,930
  5,175
  5,432
  5,702
  5,986
  6,283
  6,596
  6,925
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,662
  1,738
  1,819
  1,904
  1,994
  2,088
  2,188
  2,292
  2,403
  2,519
  2,641
  2,769
  2,904
  3,046
  3,195
  3,352
  3,517
  3,690
  3,872
  4,063
  4,264
  4,475
  4,697
  4,930
  5,175
  5,432
  5,702
  5,986
  6,283
  6,596
  6,925
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.146
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.146
  2.146
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
Average production assets, $m
  132
  138
  144
  151
  158
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  293
  308
  323
  339
  356
  373
  392
  411
  432
  453
  475
  499
  524
  550
Working capital, $m
  625
  593
  621
  650
  681
  713
  747
  783
  820
  860
  901
  945
  991
  1,040
  1,091
  1,144
  1,200
  1,260
  1,322
  1,387
  1,456
  1,528
  1,603
  1,683
  1,767
  1,854
  1,946
  2,043
  2,145
  2,252
  2,364
Total debt, $m
  97
  137
  180
  225
  273
  323
  375
  431
  489
  551
  615
  684
  755
  830
  909
  992
  1,080
  1,172
  1,268
  1,369
  1,476
  1,588
  1,705
  1,829
  1,959
  2,095
  2,238
  2,388
  2,546
  2,712
  2,886
Total liabilities, $m
  881
  921
  964
  1,009
  1,057
  1,107
  1,159
  1,215
  1,273
  1,335
  1,399
  1,468
  1,539
  1,614
  1,693
  1,776
  1,864
  1,956
  2,052
  2,153
  2,260
  2,372
  2,489
  2,613
  2,743
  2,879
  3,022
  3,172
  3,330
  3,496
  3,670
Total equity, $m
  837
  817
  855
  895
  937
  981
  1,028
  1,077
  1,129
  1,184
  1,241
  1,301
  1,365
  1,432
  1,502
  1,575
  1,653
  1,734
  1,820
  1,910
  2,004
  2,103
  2,208
  2,317
  2,432
  2,553
  2,680
  2,813
  2,953
  3,100
  3,255
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,718
  1,738
  1,819
  1,904
  1,994
  2,088
  2,187
  2,292
  2,402
  2,519
  2,640
  2,769
  2,904
  3,046
  3,195
  3,351
  3,517
  3,690
  3,872
  4,063
  4,264
  4,475
  4,697
  4,930
  5,175
  5,432
  5,702
  5,985
  6,283
  6,596
  6,925
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.116
  0.170
  0.210
  0.250
  0.290
  0.330
  0.370
  0.400
  0.430
  0.470
  0.500
  0.530
  0.550
  0.580
  0.610
  0.630
  0.650
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.750
  0.770
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  69
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  155
  161
  168
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  285
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  25
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
Funds from operations, $m
  77
  104
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  129
  134
  140
  145
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  196
  204
  214
  223
  233
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  305
  320
  334
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
Cash from operations, $m
  95
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  102
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  222
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -7
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -96
  -19
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  60
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  149
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  123
  130
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  174
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -5
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  125
  130
  135
  141
  141
  147
  153
  160
  166
  174
  181
  189
  198
  206
  216
  225
  236
  246
  258
  270
  282
  295
  309
  323
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -62
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  120
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  81
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  115
  61
  59
  58
  56
  54
  51
  49
  46
  44
  38
  36
  33
  30
  27
  24
  22
  19
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ScanSource, Inc. is a provider of technology products and solutions. The Company and its subsidiaries provide solutions for technology manufacturers and sell to resellers in technology markets, such as point-of-sale (POS) and Barcode, Networking and Security, Communications and Emerging Technologies. It operates through two segments: Worldwide Barcode & Security and Worldwide Communications & Services. The Barcode & Security distribution segment focuses on automatic identification and data capture (AIDC), POS, electronic physical security and three dimensional (3D) printing technologies. The Communications & Services distribution segment focuses on communications technologies and services. As of June 30, 2016, the Company marketed over 100,000 products from approximately 400 hardware and software vendors to approximately 35,000 reseller customers from distribution centers in Mississippi, Virginia, Florida, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Belgium, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Scansource (SCSC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.9
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 11.6%
Total Debt to Equity 11.6%
Interest Coverage 35
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Equity 8.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Operating Margin 2.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 32.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SCSC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCSC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3568 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Scansource. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Scansource. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCSC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SCSC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Scansource, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Scansource.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCSC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCSC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Scansource.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Scansource. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCSC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCSC are equal to 3.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Scansource operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCSC is equal to 15.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $837 million for Scansource - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.342 million for Scansource is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Scansource at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ScanSource misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Nov-06-17 05:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ ScanSource Reports First Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ScanSource, Inc. Names New Board Member   [Sep-13-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ScanSource meets 4Q profit forecasts   [Aug-29-17 09:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ ScanSource Completes Acquisition of POS Portal   [Jul-31-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ScanSource, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 02:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ScanSource misses Street 3Q forecasts   [May-09-17 05:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ ScanSource Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ScanSource beats 2Q profit forecasts   [05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ ScanSource Reports Second Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Finish Line Inc (FINL) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-07-16 01:51AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ ScanSource Reports First Quarter Results   [04:09PM  Business Wire]
▶ After-hours buzz: HSY, UAL, AAL & more   [Aug-29-16 06:17PM  at CNBC]
Financial statements of SCSC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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