Intrinsic value of Scansource - SCSC

Previous Close

$32.70

  Intrinsic Value

$36.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+11%

Previous close

$32.70

 
Intrinsic value

$36.41

 
Up/down potential

+11%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SCSC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Scansource (SCSC) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.79
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,568
  3,639
  3,723
  3,819
  3,926
  4,045
  4,176
  4,318
  4,472
  4,638
  4,816
  5,006
  5,209
  5,426
  5,656
  5,900
  6,158
  6,432
  6,721
  7,027
  7,350
  7,691
  8,050
  8,429
  8,828
  9,248
  9,690
  10,156
  10,646
  11,162
  11,704
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,541
  3,622
  3,714
  3,818
  3,933
  4,060
  4,197
  4,346
  4,507
  4,679
  4,843
  5,039
  5,249
  5,471
  5,707
  5,957
  6,222
  6,502
  6,798
  7,110
  7,440
  7,787
  8,154
  8,540
  8,946
  9,374
  9,825
  10,299
  10,797
  11,322
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,480
  3,541
  3,622
  3,714
  3,818
  3,933
  4,060
  4,197
  4,346
  4,507
  4,679
  4,843
  5,039
  5,249
  5,471
  5,707
  5,957
  6,222
  6,502
  6,798
  7,110
  7,440
  7,787
  8,154
  8,540
  8,946
  9,374
  9,825
  10,299
  10,797
  11,322
Operating income, $m
  88
  99
  101
  105
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  263
  275
  288
  302
  316
  331
  347
  364
  382
EBITDA, $m
  113
  131
  134
  137
  141
  145
  150
  155
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  212
  221
  231
  242
  253
  264
  277
  290
  303
  317
  333
  349
  365
  383
  401
  421
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
Earnings before tax, $m
  102
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  184
  191
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  275
  287
  300
  313
Tax expense, $m
  33
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  40
  42
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  84
Net income, $m
  69
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  109
  113
  116
  121
  125
  130
  134
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  228

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,718
  1,695
  1,734
  1,779
  1,829
  1,884
  1,945
  2,011
  2,083
  2,160
  2,243
  2,332
  2,426
  2,527
  2,634
  2,748
  2,868
  2,996
  3,131
  3,273
  3,423
  3,582
  3,749
  3,926
  4,112
  4,307
  4,513
  4,730
  4,959
  5,199
  5,451
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,662
  1,695
  1,734
  1,779
  1,829
  1,884
  1,945
  2,011
  2,083
  2,160
  2,243
  2,332
  2,426
  2,527
  2,634
  2,748
  2,868
  2,996
  3,131
  3,273
  3,423
  3,582
  3,749
  3,926
  4,112
  4,307
  4,513
  4,730
  4,959
  5,199
  5,451
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
  2.147
Average production assets, $m
  132
  135
  138
  141
  145
  150
  155
  160
  165
  172
  178
  185
  193
  201
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  260
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  342
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
Working capital, $m
  625
  579
  592
  607
  624
  643
  664
  687
  711
  737
  766
  796
  828
  863
  899
  938
  979
  1,023
  1,069
  1,117
  1,169
  1,223
  1,280
  1,340
  1,404
  1,470
  1,541
  1,615
  1,693
  1,775
  1,861
Total debt, $m
  97
  114
  135
  159
  185
  215
  247
  282
  320
  361
  405
  452
  502
  555
  612
  672
  736
  804
  875
  951
  1,030
  1,114
  1,203
  1,297
  1,395
  1,499
  1,608
  1,723
  1,844
  1,971
  2,105
Total liabilities, $m
  881
  898
  919
  943
  969
  999
  1,031
  1,066
  1,104
  1,145
  1,189
  1,236
  1,286
  1,339
  1,396
  1,456
  1,520
  1,588
  1,659
  1,735
  1,814
  1,898
  1,987
  2,081
  2,179
  2,283
  2,392
  2,507
  2,628
  2,755
  2,889
Total equity, $m
  837
  797
  815
  836
  859
  886
  914
  945
  979
  1,015
  1,054
  1,096
  1,140
  1,188
  1,238
  1,291
  1,348
  1,408
  1,471
  1,538
  1,609
  1,684
  1,762
  1,845
  1,932
  2,024
  2,121
  2,223
  2,331
  2,443
  2,562
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,718
  1,695
  1,734
  1,779
  1,828
  1,885
  1,945
  2,011
  2,083
  2,160
  2,243
  2,332
  2,426
  2,527
  2,634
  2,747
  2,868
  2,996
  3,130
  3,273
  3,423
  3,582
  3,749
  3,926
  4,111
  4,307
  4,513
  4,730
  4,959
  5,198
  5,451
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.116
  0.140
  0.170
  0.190
  0.220
  0.240
  0.270
  0.300
  0.330
  0.360
  0.380
  0.410
  0.440
  0.470
  0.490
  0.520
  0.550
  0.570
  0.590
  0.620
  0.640
  0.660
  0.680
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470
  0.470

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  69
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  109
  113
  116
  121
  125
  130
  134
  140
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  228
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  25
  32
  33
  33
  33
  34
  34
  34
  35
  36
  36
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
Funds from operations, $m
  77
  102
  104
  106
  108
  111
  113
  116
  120
  123
  127
  126
  130
  135
  139
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  183
  190
  198
  207
  215
  225
  235
  245
  256
  267
Change in working capital, $m
  -18
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
Cash from operations, $m
  95
  90
  90
  90
  91
  92
  93
  94
  95
  97
  99
  95
  98
  100
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  120
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  154
  161
  167
  174
  181
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
New CAPEX, $m
  -12
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -96
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  75
  75
  75
  74
  74
  74
  75
  75
  76
  77
  72
  73
  75
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  124
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  17
  21
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -4
  17
  21
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -5
  93
  96
  98
  101
  104
  106
  110
  113
  117
  121
  119
  124
  128
  133
  138
  144
  149
  155
  162
  168
  175
  183
  191
  199
  207
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -62
  -16
  -18
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  133
  77
  77
  77
  77
  78
  79
  79
  80
  82
  78
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  101
  104
  108
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  134
  139
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  128
  71
  67
  64
  60
  57
  53
  50
  46
  43
  37
  34
  31
  28
  25
  22
  19
  17
  15
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

ScanSource, Inc. is a provider of technology products and solutions. The Company and its subsidiaries provide solutions for technology manufacturers and sell to resellers in technology markets, such as point-of-sale (POS) and Barcode, Networking and Security, Communications and Emerging Technologies. It operates through two segments: Worldwide Barcode & Security and Worldwide Communications & Services. The Barcode & Security distribution segment focuses on automatic identification and data capture (AIDC), POS, electronic physical security and three dimensional (3D) printing technologies. The Communications & Services distribution segment focuses on communications technologies and services. As of June 30, 2016, the Company marketed over 100,000 products from approximately 400 hardware and software vendors to approximately 35,000 reseller customers from distribution centers in Mississippi, Virginia, Florida, Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Belgium, France, Germany and the United Kingdom.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Scansource (SCSC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 12.1
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 10
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 11.6%
Total Debt to Equity 11.6%
Interest Coverage 35
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 7.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Return On Equity 8.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Operating Margin 2.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Effective Tax Rate 32.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SCSC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SCSC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3568 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Scansource. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Scansource. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SCSC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SCSC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Scansource, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Scansource.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SCSC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SCSC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Scansource.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Scansource. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SCSC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SCSC are equal to 3.7%.

Life of production assets of 11.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Scansource operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SCSC is equal to 15.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $837 million for Scansource - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.428 million for Scansource is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Scansource at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ScanSource tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Feb-06-18 05:15PM  Associated Press]
▶ ScanSource Reports Record Quarterly Sales   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ScanSource, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [12:45PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ January Undervalued Stock Picks   [Jan-25-18 09:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ScanSource Announces Appointment of General Counsel   [Jan-10-18 08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ ScanSource And Other Top Undervalued Stocks   [Dec-19-17 08:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ ScanSource misses 1Q profit forecasts   [Nov-06-17 05:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ ScanSource Reports First Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ScanSource, Inc. Names New Board Member   [Sep-13-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ScanSource meets 4Q profit forecasts   [Aug-29-17 09:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ ScanSource Completes Acquisition of POS Portal   [Jul-31-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ScanSource, Inc. : May 22, 2017   [May-22-17 02:09PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ScanSource misses Street 3Q forecasts   [May-09-17 05:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ ScanSource Reports Third Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ScanSource beats 2Q profit forecasts   [05:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ ScanSource Reports Second Quarter Results   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Finish Line Inc (FINL) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-07-16 01:51AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ ScanSource Reports First Quarter Results   [04:09PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of SCSC
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