Intrinsic value of Seneca Foods Cl A - SENEA

Previous Close

$27.85

  Intrinsic Value

$23.34

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  Rating & Target

hold

-16%

Previous close

$27.85

 
Intrinsic value

$23.34

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SENEA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,271
  1,300
  1,334
  1,371
  1,413
  1,458
  1,508
  1,562
  1,620
  1,682
  1,748
  1,819
  1,895
  1,975
  2,060
  2,151
  2,246
  2,347
  2,454
  2,567
  2,686
  2,811
  2,943
  3,083
  3,229
  3,384
  3,547
  3,718
  3,898
  4,087
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,182
  1,209
  1,240
  1,275
  1,314
  1,356
  1,402
  1,452
  1,506
  1,564
  1,626
  1,692
  1,762
  1,837
  1,916
  2,000
  2,089
  2,183
  2,282
  2,387
  2,498
  2,614
  2,737
  2,867
  3,003
  3,147
  3,298
  3,458
  3,625
  3,801
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,182
  1,209
  1,240
  1,275
  1,314
  1,356
  1,402
  1,452
  1,506
  1,564
  1,626
  1,692
  1,762
  1,837
  1,916
  2,000
  2,089
  2,183
  2,282
  2,387
  2,498
  2,614
  2,737
  2,867
  3,003
  3,147
  3,298
  3,458
  3,625
  3,801
Operating income, $m
  89
  91
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  133
  138
  144
  151
  157
  164
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
  286
EBITDA, $m
  111
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  136
  141
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  204
  214
  224
  234
  245
  256
  269
  281
  295
  309
  324
  340
  356
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
Earnings before tax, $m
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
Tax expense, $m
  19
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
Net income, $m
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  965
  987
  1,013
  1,041
  1,073
  1,107
  1,145
  1,186
  1,230
  1,277
  1,327
  1,381
  1,439
  1,500
  1,564
  1,633
  1,705
  1,782
  1,863
  1,949
  2,039
  2,134
  2,235
  2,341
  2,452
  2,569
  2,693
  2,823
  2,960
  3,103
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  965
  987
  1,013
  1,041
  1,073
  1,107
  1,145
  1,186
  1,230
  1,277
  1,327
  1,381
  1,439
  1,500
  1,564
  1,633
  1,705
  1,782
  1,863
  1,949
  2,039
  2,134
  2,235
  2,341
  2,452
  2,569
  2,693
  2,823
  2,960
  3,103
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
  1.317
Average production assets, $m
  217
  222
  228
  234
  242
  249
  258
  267
  277
  288
  299
  311
  324
  338
  352
  368
  384
  401
  420
  439
  459
  481
  503
  527
  552
  579
  606
  636
  667
  699
Working capital, $m
  536
  549
  563
  579
  596
  615
  636
  659
  683
  710
  738
  768
  800
  833
  869
  908
  948
  990
  1,036
  1,083
  1,133
  1,186
  1,242
  1,301
  1,363
  1,428
  1,497
  1,569
  1,645
  1,725
Total debt, $m
  382
  394
  408
  423
  440
  459
  479
  501
  525
  551
  578
  607
  638
  671
  706
  743
  782
  824
  868
  914
  963
  1,015
  1,069
  1,126
  1,186
  1,250
  1,317
  1,387
  1,461
  1,539
Total liabilities, $m
  522
  534
  548
  563
  580
  599
  619
  642
  665
  691
  718
  747
  778
  811
  846
  883
  923
  964
  1,008
  1,054
  1,103
  1,155
  1,209
  1,266
  1,327
  1,390
  1,457
  1,527
  1,601
  1,679
Total equity, $m
  443
  453
  465
  478
  492
  508
  526
  544
  564
  586
  609
  634
  660
  688
  718
  749
  783
  818
  855
  895
  936
  980
  1,026
  1,074
  1,126
  1,179
  1,236
  1,296
  1,358
  1,424
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  965
  987
  1,013
  1,041
  1,072
  1,107
  1,145
  1,186
  1,229
  1,277
  1,327
  1,381
  1,438
  1,499
  1,564
  1,632
  1,706
  1,782
  1,863
  1,949
  2,039
  2,135
  2,235
  2,340
  2,453
  2,569
  2,693
  2,823
  2,959
  3,103
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459
  0.459

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  50
  51
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
Funds from operations, $m
  72
  74
  75
  77
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  211
  221
Change in working capital, $m
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
Cash from operations, $m
  62
  61
  61
  62
  62
  63
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
Free cash flow, $m
  36
  35
  33
  32
  32
  31
  30
  30
  30
  29
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  46
  47
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  57
  58
  60
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  37
  36
  35
  35
  34
  34
  33
  33
  33
  33
  33
  34
  34
  35
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
Discount rate, %
  9.00
  9.45
  9.92
  10.42
  10.94
  11.49
  12.06
  12.66
  13.30
  13.96
  14.66
  15.39
  16.16
  16.97
  17.82
  18.71
  19.65
  20.63
  21.66
  22.74
  23.88
  25.07
  26.33
  27.64
  29.03
  30.48
  32.00
  33.60
  35.28
  37.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  34
  30
  27
  23
  20
  18
  15
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
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Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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  100.0

Seneca Foods Corporation is a provider of packaged fruits and vegetables. The Company manages its business through two segments: packaging and sale of fruits and vegetables, and packaging and sale of chip products. Its product offerings include canned fruits and vegetables, frozen vegetables and other food products, frozen and bottled produce, and snack chips. Its products are sold under private label, as well as national and regional brands that the Company owns or licenses, including Seneca, Libby's, Green Valley, Aunt Nellie's, READ, Cherryman and Seneca Farms. The Company packs Green Giant, Le Sueur and other brands of canned vegetables, as well as select Green Giant frozen vegetables for B&G Foods North America (B&G) under a contract packing agreement. Its two segments constitute the food operation. The non-food operation is primarily related to the sale of cans and ends, and the Company's trucking and aircraft operations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Seneca Foods Cl A (SENEA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -34.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 220%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 83.9%
Total Debt to Equity 85.7%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 1.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Equity 3.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
EBITDA Margin 4.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Operating Margin 2.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Net Profit Margin 1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Effective Tax Rate 35%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32%
Payout Ratio 0%

SENEA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SENEA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1246 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Seneca Foods Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Seneca Foods Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SENEA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9%, whose default value for SENEA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Seneca Foods Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Seneca Foods Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SENEA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SENEA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Seneca Foods Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Seneca Foods Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SENEA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SENEA are equal to 17.1%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Seneca Foods Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SENEA is equal to 42.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $434 million for Seneca Foods Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 10 million for Seneca Foods Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Seneca Foods Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Seneca Foods: Fiscal 4Q Earnings Snapshot   [Jun-29-18 05:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Trump's tariffs risk jobs and profits in working-class areas   [Apr-24-18 11:25AM  Associated Press]
▶ Seneca Foods to Close its Modesto, California Facility   [Feb-16-18 05:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Seneca Foods posts 3Q profit   [Jan-25-18 05:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ Seneca Foods reports 2Q loss   [Oct-27-17 05:02AM  Associated Press]
▶ Seneca Foods reports 1Q loss   [Jul-31-17 09:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Seneca Foods Corp. : June 14, 2017   [Jun-14-17 01:48PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Seneca Foods Corp. : June 2, 2017   [Jun-02-17 02:30PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Seneca Foods reports 4Q loss   [May-25-17 05:04PM  Associated Press]
▶ Seneca Foods posts 3Q profit   [Jan-25-17 05:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Seneca Foods Corp (SENEA) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-15-16 01:30AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc (RYAM) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-28  07:52AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ 10-Q for Seneca Foods Corp.   [Aug-03  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for Seneca Foods Corp.   [Jun-11  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for Seneca Foods Corp.   [Feb-04  07:07PM  at Company Spotlight]
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