Intrinsic value of Shutterfly - SFLY

Previous Close

$48.70

  Intrinsic Value

$47.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-3%

  Value-price divergence*

-17%

Previous close

$48.70

 
Intrinsic value

$47.10

 
Up/down potential

-3%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-17%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SFLY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.08
  2.50
  2.75
  2.97
  3.18
  3.36
  3.52
  3.67
  3.80
  3.92
  4.03
  4.13
  4.22
  4.29
  4.36
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.70
  4.73
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
Revenue, $m
  1,134
  1,162
  1,194
  1,230
  1,269
  1,312
  1,358
  1,408
  1,461
  1,519
  1,580
  1,645
  1,714
  1,788
  1,866
  1,949
  2,036
  2,128
  2,226
  2,329
  2,437
  2,552
  2,672
  2,799
  2,933
  3,074
  3,222
  3,378
  3,542
  3,715
  3,896
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  680
  698
  717
  739
  762
  788
  815
  844
  876
  910
  905
  943
  983
  1,026
  1,072
  1,120
  1,170
  1,224
  1,281
  1,340
  1,403
  1,470
  1,540
  1,613
  1,691
  1,772
  1,858
  1,948
  2,043
  2,143
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  442
  453
  464
  476
  488
  500
  512
  525
  538
  552
  566
  580
  594
  609
  624
  640
  656
  672
  689
  706
  724
  742
  761
  780
  799
  819
  840
  860
  882
  904
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,085
  1,122
  1,151
  1,181
  1,215
  1,250
  1,288
  1,327
  1,369
  1,414
  1,462
  1,471
  1,523
  1,577
  1,635
  1,696
  1,760
  1,826
  1,896
  1,970
  2,046
  2,127
  2,212
  2,301
  2,393
  2,490
  2,591
  2,698
  2,808
  2,925
  3,047
Operating income, $m
  49
  40
  44
  48
  54
  62
  70
  80
  92
  104
  118
  175
  192
  211
  231
  253
  276
  302
  330
  359
  391
  425
  461
  499
  541
  584
  631
  681
  734
  790
  849
EBITDA, $m
  163
  134
  139
  145
  153
  162
  173
  185
  199
  214
  231
  249
  270
  292
  315
  341
  369
  399
  431
  465
  501
  540
  582
  626
  674
  724
  777
  834
  894
  958
  1,026
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  60
  63
Earnings before tax, $m
  27
  27
  30
  34
  39
  46
  54
  63
  73
  85
  98
  153
  169
  186
  205
  225
  247
  271
  297
  325
  354
  386
  420
  456
  495
  537
  581
  627
  677
  730
  786
Tax expense, $m
  11
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  26
  41
  46
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  88
  96
  104
  113
  123
  134
  145
  157
  169
  183
  197
  212
Net income, $m
  16
  20
  22
  25
  29
  33
  39
  46
  53
  62
  71
  112
  123
  136
  150
  164
  181
  198
  217
  237
  259
  282
  307
  333
  362
  392
  424
  458
  494
  533
  574

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  316
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,196
  902
  927
  954
  984
  1,017
  1,053
  1,092
  1,134
  1,178
  1,226
  1,276
  1,330
  1,387
  1,448
  1,512
  1,579
  1,651
  1,727
  1,807
  1,891
  1,980
  2,073
  2,172
  2,276
  2,385
  2,500
  2,621
  2,748
  2,882
  3,022
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  880
  902
  927
  954
  984
  1,017
  1,053
  1,092
  1,134
  1,178
  1,226
  1,276
  1,330
  1,387
  1,448
  1,512
  1,579
  1,651
  1,727
  1,807
  1,891
  1,980
  2,073
  2,172
  2,276
  2,385
  2,500
  2,621
  2,748
  2,882
  3,022
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.289
  1.288
  1.288
  1.289
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.289
  1.288
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
Average production assets, $m
  335
  343
  352
  363
  374
  387
  401
  415
  431
  448
  466
  485
  506
  527
  550
  575
  601
  628
  657
  687
  719
  753
  788
  826
  865
  907
  951
  997
  1,045
  1,096
  1,149
Working capital, $m
  212
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -139
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -240
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -304
Total debt, $m
  400
  400
  417
  437
  458
  481
  507
  534
  563
  595
  628
  664
  702
  742
  785
  830
  878
  929
  982
  1,039
  1,098
  1,161
  1,227
  1,296
  1,370
  1,447
  1,528
  1,613
  1,703
  1,798
  1,897
Total liabilities, $m
  636
  637
  654
  674
  695
  718
  744
  771
  800
  832
  865
  901
  939
  979
  1,022
  1,067
  1,115
  1,166
  1,219
  1,276
  1,335
  1,398
  1,464
  1,533
  1,607
  1,684
  1,765
  1,850
  1,940
  2,035
  2,134
Total equity, $m
  559
  265
  272
  281
  289
  299
  310
  321
  333
  346
  360
  375
  391
  408
  426
  444
  464
  485
  508
  531
  556
  582
  610
  639
  669
  701
  735
  771
  808
  847
  889
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,195
  902
  926
  955
  984
  1,017
  1,054
  1,092
  1,133
  1,178
  1,225
  1,276
  1,330
  1,387
  1,448
  1,511
  1,579
  1,651
  1,727
  1,807
  1,891
  1,980
  2,074
  2,172
  2,276
  2,385
  2,500
  2,621
  2,748
  2,882
  3,023
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.716
  1.510
  1.530
  1.560
  1.580
  1.610
  1.640
  1.660
  1.690
  1.720
  1.740
  1.770
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.930
  1.960
  1.980
  1.990
  2.010
  2.030
  2.050
  2.060
  2.080
  2.090
  2.110
  2.120
  2.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.276
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  20
  22
  25
  29
  33
  39
  46
  53
  62
  71
  112
  123
  136
  150
  164
  181
  198
  217
  237
  259
  282
  307
  333
  362
  392
  424
  458
  494
  533
  574
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  94
  95
  97
  98
  100
  103
  105
  107
  110
  113
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
Funds from operations, $m
  189
  113
  117
  121
  127
  134
  142
  150
  160
  172
  184
  186
  201
  217
  234
  253
  273
  295
  318
  343
  369
  398
  428
  460
  495
  531
  570
  611
  655
  702
  751
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  193
  116
  119
  124
  130
  137
  145
  154
  165
  176
  189
  191
  206
  223
  240
  259
  280
  302
  325
  351
  378
  407
  437
  470
  505
  542
  582
  623
  668
  715
  765
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
New CAPEX, $m
  -90
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -126
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -212
  -223
Free cash flow, $m
  129
  56
  57
  60
  63
  67
  72
  78
  85
  93
  102
  100
  111
  123
  136
  150
  166
  182
  200
  219
  240
  262
  286
  311
  339
  368
  398
  431
  466
  503
  543
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -19
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -129
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  72
  75
  79
  84
  90
  97
  105
  114
  124
  135
  136
  149
  163
  179
  196
  213
  233
  254
  276
  300
  325
  352
  381
  412
  445
  480
  517
  556
  598
  642
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  47
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  300
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  366
  67
  71
  75
  81
  87
  94
  102
  111
  121
  121
  133
  147
  161
  177
  194
  212
  231
  252
  275
  299
  325
  352
  381
  413
  446
  481
  519
  559
  601
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  351
  62
  62
  62
  62
  63
  63
  64
  64
  64
  58
  57
  56
  54
  52
  49
  46
  43
  39
  35
  31
  27
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Shutterfly, Inc. is an online manufacturer and retailer of personalized products and services. The Company focuses on helping consumers manage their memories through the medium of photography. The Company's segments are Consumer and Shutterfly Business Solutions (SBS). The Consumer segment offers photo-based products, such as photo books, stationery and greeting cards, other photo-based merchandise, photo prints and statement gifts. The SBS segment includes printing and shipping of direct marketing and other variable data print products and formats. The Company provides a range of personalized photo-based products and services that enables the consumers to upload, edit, organize, find, share, create, print, and preserve their memories in a thoughtful manner. The Company's brands include Shutterfly, Tiny Prints, Wedding Paper Divas, MyPublisher, BorrowLenses and Groovebook. The Company has its production facilities in Fort Mill, South Carolina; Shakopee, Minnesota, and Tempe, Arizona.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Shutterfly (SFLY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 102.4
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 20
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 68.7%
Total Debt to Equity 71.6%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Equity 2.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.4%
EBITDA Margin 12.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Operating Margin 4.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

SFLY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SFLY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1134 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Shutterfly. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Shutterfly. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SFLY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SFLY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Shutterfly, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Shutterfly.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SFLY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $431 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SFLY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Shutterfly.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Shutterfly. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SFLY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SFLY are equal to 29.5%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Shutterfly operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SFLY is equal to -7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $559 million for Shutterfly - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 33.378 million for Shutterfly is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Shutterfly at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ The Next FANG Stocks Are   [Oct-04-17 10:57AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Shutterfly integrates with Apple Photos app for Mac   [Sep-25-17 04:11PM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Judge Says Customers Can Sue Over Face Scans   [Sep-19-17 07:21PM  Fortune]
▶ Shutterfly reports 2Q loss   [Jul-25-17 09:16PM  Associated Press]
▶ These 3 Stocks Look Expensive But Are Actually Cheap   [Jul-18-17 07:27PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Shutterfly, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 03:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Shutterfly, Inc. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 03:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 3 Stocks With MercadoLibre-Like Return Potential   [Jun-07-17 09:25AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Shutterfly reports 1Q loss   [Apr-25-17 04:20PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Shutterfly, Inc. Stock Sank 11.6% in February   [Mar-13-17 07:14AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Shutterfly, Inc. Names Will Lansing Chairman of the Board   [Feb-22-17 04:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ 6 Stocks Spiking Higher With Unusual Volume   [Feb-21-17 11:44AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Why Shutterfly Inc. Stock Dropped Today   [Feb-02-17 02:44PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Shutterfly: The Year In Review   [Dec-28-16 01:39PM  at Forbes]
Financial statements of SFLY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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