Intrinsic value of Shutterfly - SFLY

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$75.43

  Intrinsic Value

$65.16

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  Rating & Target

hold

-14%

Previous close

$75.43

 
Intrinsic value

$65.16

 
Up/down potential

-14%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SFLY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

Please visit our new site that uses elements of artificial intelligence for stock valuation: artificial intelligence value of Shutterfly (SFLY) stock.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.08
  4.30
  4.37
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.91
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  1,134
  1,183
  1,234
  1,289
  1,347
  1,408
  1,473
  1,541
  1,613
  1,689
  1,768
  1,853
  1,941
  2,034
  2,132
  2,236
  2,344
  2,458
  2,578
  2,705
  2,837
  2,977
  3,123
  3,277
  3,439
  3,609
  3,788
  3,976
  4,173
  4,380
  4,597
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  691
  720
  750
  782
  815
  851
  888
  928
  970
  1,013
  1,019
  1,068
  1,119
  1,173
  1,229
  1,289
  1,352
  1,418
  1,487
  1,560
  1,637
  1,718
  1,802
  1,891
  1,985
  2,083
  2,186
  2,295
  2,409
  2,528
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  442
  453
  464
  476
  488
  500
  512
  525
  538
  552
  566
  580
  594
  609
  624
  640
  656
  672
  689
  706
  724
  742
  761
  780
  799
  819
  840
  860
  882
  904
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,085
  1,133
  1,173
  1,214
  1,258
  1,303
  1,351
  1,400
  1,453
  1,508
  1,565
  1,585
  1,648
  1,713
  1,782
  1,853
  1,929
  2,008
  2,090
  2,176
  2,266
  2,361
  2,460
  2,563
  2,671
  2,784
  2,902
  3,026
  3,155
  3,291
  3,432
Operating income, $m
  49
  50
  62
  75
  90
  105
  122
  140
  160
  181
  203
  268
  294
  321
  351
  382
  415
  451
  488
  528
  571
  616
  664
  715
  768
  825
  886
  950
  1,018
  1,089
  1,165
EBITDA, $m
  163
  144
  159
  175
  192
  210
  230
  251
  274
  298
  324
  352
  382
  414
  448
  483
  522
  562
  605
  651
  700
  751
  805
  863
  924
  989
  1,058
  1,130
  1,207
  1,288
  1,374
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
Earnings before tax, $m
  27
  36
  47
  60
  73
  88
  103
  120
  139
  158
  179
  243
  267
  293
  320
  349
  381
  414
  449
  487
  527
  570
  615
  663
  714
  768
  825
  885
  950
  1,018
  1,089
Tax expense, $m
  11
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  37
  43
  48
  66
  72
  79
  86
  94
  103
  112
  121
  132
  142
  154
  166
  179
  193
  207
  223
  239
  256
  275
  294
Net income, $m
  16
  26
  35
  44
  53
  64
  76
  88
  101
  115
  131
  177
  195
  214
  234
  255
  278
  302
  328
  356
  385
  416
  449
  484
  521
  560
  602
  646
  693
  743
  795

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  316
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,196
  918
  958
  1,000
  1,045
  1,092
  1,143
  1,195
  1,251
  1,310
  1,372
  1,437
  1,506
  1,578
  1,654
  1,734
  1,819
  1,907
  2,000
  2,098
  2,201
  2,309
  2,423
  2,543
  2,668
  2,800
  2,939
  3,084
  3,237
  3,398
  3,567
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  880
  918
  958
  1,000
  1,045
  1,092
  1,143
  1,195
  1,251
  1,310
  1,372
  1,437
  1,506
  1,578
  1,654
  1,734
  1,819
  1,907
  2,000
  2,098
  2,201
  2,309
  2,423
  2,543
  2,668
  2,800
  2,939
  3,084
  3,237
  3,398
  3,567
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.289
  1.289
  1.288
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.290
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.290
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
  1.289
Average production assets, $m
  335
  349
  364
  380
  397
  415
  434
  455
  476
  498
  522
  547
  573
  600
  629
  660
  692
  725
  761
  798
  837
  878
  921
  967
  1,015
  1,065
  1,117
  1,173
  1,231
  1,292
  1,356
Working capital, $m
  212
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -268
  -282
  -295
  -310
  -325
  -342
  -359
Total debt, $m
  400
  411
  439
  469
  501
  534
  570
  607
  646
  688
  732
  778
  826
  877
  931
  988
  1,047
  1,110
  1,175
  1,244
  1,317
  1,393
  1,474
  1,558
  1,647
  1,740
  1,838
  1,940
  2,048
  2,162
  2,281
Total liabilities, $m
  636
  648
  676
  706
  738
  771
  807
  844
  883
  925
  969
  1,015
  1,063
  1,114
  1,168
  1,225
  1,284
  1,347
  1,412
  1,481
  1,554
  1,630
  1,711
  1,795
  1,884
  1,977
  2,075
  2,177
  2,285
  2,399
  2,518
Total equity, $m
  559
  270
  282
  294
  307
  321
  336
  351
  368
  385
  403
  423
  443
  464
  486
  510
  535
  561
  588
  617
  647
  679
  712
  748
  784
  823
  864
  907
  952
  999
  1,049
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,195
  918
  958
  1,000
  1,045
  1,092
  1,143
  1,195
  1,251
  1,310
  1,372
  1,438
  1,506
  1,578
  1,654
  1,735
  1,819
  1,908
  2,000
  2,098
  2,201
  2,309
  2,423
  2,543
  2,668
  2,800
  2,939
  3,084
  3,237
  3,398
  3,567
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.716
  1.520
  1.560
  1.600
  1.630
  1.660
  1.700
  1.730
  1.760
  1.790
  1.810
  1.840
  1.870
  1.890
  1.910
  1.940
  1.960
  1.980
  2.000
  2.020
  2.040
  2.050
  2.070
  2.080
  2.100
  2.110
  2.130
  2.140
  2.150
  2.160
  2.180
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.276
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294
  0.294

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  16
  26
  35
  44
  53
  64
  76
  88
  101
  115
  131
  177
  195
  214
  234
  255
  278
  302
  328
  356
  385
  416
  449
  484
  521
  560
  602
  646
  693
  743
  795
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  114
  95
  97
  99
  102
  105
  108
  111
  114
  118
  121
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  199
  209
Funds from operations, $m
  189
  121
  132
  143
  155
  169
  183
  199
  215
  233
  252
  261
  283
  306
  330
  357
  384
  414
  445
  478
  514
  551
  591
  633
  677
  724
  774
  827
  883
  942
  1,004
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
Cash from operations, $m
  193
  125
  136
  147
  160
  174
  188
  204
  221
  239
  258
  268
  290
  313
  338
  365
  393
  423
  454
  488
  524
  562
  602
  645
  690
  738
  788
  841
  898
  958
  1,021
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -199
New CAPEX, $m
  -90
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -206
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -263
Free cash flow, $m
  129
  59
  67
  75
  84
  94
  105
  117
  130
  143
  158
  163
  180
  198
  217
  237
  259
  283
  307
  334
  362
  392
  424
  458
  493
  531
  572
  614
  659
  707
  758
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -19
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -110
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -129
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  86
  95
  105
  116
  128
  141
  154
  169
  185
  202
  209
  228
  249
  271
  294
  319
  345
  373
  403
  435
  468
  504
  542
  582
  624
  669
  717
  767
  821
  877
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  47
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  300
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  375
  83
  93
  103
  114
  126
  139
  153
  168
  184
  190
  208
  227
  248
  270
  294
  319
  346
  374
  405
  437
  471
  507
  545
  586
  629
  674
  722
  773
  827
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  360
  76
  81
  85
  88
  91
  94
  95
  96
  96
  90
  89
  86
  83
  79
  75
  69
  64
  58
  51
  45
  39
  33
  28
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Shutterfly, Inc. is an online manufacturer and retailer of personalized products and services. The Company focuses on helping consumers manage their memories through the medium of photography. The Company's segments are Consumer and Shutterfly Business Solutions (SBS). The Consumer segment offers photo-based products, such as photo books, stationery and greeting cards, other photo-based merchandise, photo prints and statement gifts. The SBS segment includes printing and shipping of direct marketing and other variable data print products and formats. The Company provides a range of personalized photo-based products and services that enables the consumers to upload, edit, organize, find, share, create, print, and preserve their memories in a thoughtful manner. The Company's brands include Shutterfly, Tiny Prints, Wedding Paper Divas, MyPublisher, BorrowLenses and Groovebook. The Company has its production facilities in Fort Mill, South Carolina; Shakopee, Minnesota, and Tempe, Arizona.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Shutterfly (SFLY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 158.6
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 20
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 68.7%
Total Debt to Equity 71.6%
Interest Coverage 10
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Return On Equity 2.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.4%
EBITDA Margin 12.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Operating Margin 4.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Effective Tax Rate 40.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

SFLY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SFLY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1134 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Shutterfly. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Shutterfly. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SFLY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SFLY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Shutterfly, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Shutterfly.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SFLY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $431 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SFLY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Shutterfly.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Shutterfly. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SFLY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SFLY are equal to 29.5%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Shutterfly operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SFLY is equal to -7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $559 million for Shutterfly - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.965 million for Shutterfly is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Shutterfly at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.5 billion.

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Financial statements of SFLY
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