Intrinsic value of Sprouts Farmers Market - SFM

Previous Close

$25.47

  Intrinsic Value

$31.96

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+25%

Previous close

$25.47

 
Intrinsic value

$31.96

 
Up/down potential

+25%

 
Rating

buy

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SFM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  12.61
  16.40
  15.26
  14.23
  13.31
  12.48
  11.73
  11.06
  10.45
  9.91
  9.42
  8.97
  8.58
  8.22
  7.90
  7.61
  7.35
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
Revenue, $m
  4,046
  4,710
  5,428
  6,201
  7,026
  7,903
  8,830
  9,807
  10,832
  11,905
  13,026
  14,195
  15,413
  16,679
  17,997
  19,366
  20,789
  22,267
  23,804
  25,402
  27,063
  28,791
  30,590
  32,463
  34,414
  36,447
  38,568
  40,781
  43,090
  45,502
  48,021
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  4,412
  5,079
  5,797
  6,564
  7,378
  8,239
  9,146
  10,099
  11,095
  12,137
  13,186
  14,317
  15,494
  16,717
  17,989
  19,311
  20,684
  22,112
  23,596
  25,139
  26,744
  28,415
  30,155
  31,967
  33,856
  35,826
  37,881
  40,027
  42,267
  44,607
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,833
  4,412
  5,079
  5,797
  6,564
  7,378
  8,239
  9,146
  10,099
  11,095
  12,137
  13,186
  14,317
  15,494
  16,717
  17,989
  19,311
  20,684
  22,112
  23,596
  25,139
  26,744
  28,415
  30,155
  31,967
  33,856
  35,826
  37,881
  40,027
  42,267
  44,607
Operating income, $m
  213
  298
  349
  404
  463
  525
  591
  660
  733
  810
  889
  1,009
  1,096
  1,186
  1,279
  1,377
  1,478
  1,583
  1,692
  1,806
  1,924
  2,047
  2,175
  2,308
  2,447
  2,591
  2,742
  2,899
  3,064
  3,235
  3,414
EBITDA, $m
  293
  397
  458
  523
  592
  666
  744
  827
  913
  1,004
  1,098
  1,197
  1,299
  1,406
  1,517
  1,633
  1,753
  1,877
  2,007
  2,142
  2,282
  2,427
  2,579
  2,737
  2,901
  3,073
  3,252
  3,438
  3,633
  3,836
  4,049
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  16
  22
  28
  34
  41
  48
  56
  64
  72
  81
  90
  100
  110
  120
  131
  142
  154
  166
  179
  192
  206
  220
  235
  250
  266
  283
  300
  318
  337
  357
Earnings before tax, $m
  199
  282
  327
  376
  429
  484
  543
  605
  670
  737
  808
  919
  996
  1,076
  1,159
  1,246
  1,336
  1,429
  1,526
  1,627
  1,732
  1,841
  1,955
  2,073
  2,197
  2,325
  2,459
  2,599
  2,745
  2,898
  3,057
Tax expense, $m
  75
  76
  88
  102
  116
  131
  147
  163
  181
  199
  218
  248
  269
  291
  313
  336
  361
  386
  412
  439
  468
  497
  528
  560
  593
  628
  664
  702
  741
  782
  825
Net income, $m
  124
  206
  239
  275
  313
  353
  396
  441
  489
  538
  590
  671
  727
  785
  846
  909
  975
  1,043
  1,114
  1,188
  1,264
  1,344
  1,427
  1,514
  1,604
  1,697
  1,795
  1,897
  2,004
  2,115
  2,232

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,440
  1,662
  1,916
  2,189
  2,480
  2,790
  3,117
  3,462
  3,823
  4,202
  4,598
  5,011
  5,440
  5,888
  6,353
  6,836
  7,338
  7,860
  8,402
  8,966
  9,553
  10,163
  10,798
  11,459
  12,147
  12,865
  13,614
  14,395
  15,210
  16,061
  16,951
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,428
  1,662
  1,916
  2,189
  2,480
  2,790
  3,117
  3,462
  3,823
  4,202
  4,598
  5,011
  5,440
  5,888
  6,353
  6,836
  7,338
  7,860
  8,402
  8,966
  9,553
  10,163
  10,798
  11,459
  12,147
  12,865
  13,614
  14,395
  15,210
  16,061
  16,951
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.833
  2.834
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
  2.833
Average production assets, $m
  748
  871
  1,004
  1,147
  1,300
  1,462
  1,634
  1,814
  2,004
  2,202
  2,410
  2,626
  2,851
  3,086
  3,329
  3,583
  3,846
  4,119
  4,404
  4,699
  5,007
  5,326
  5,659
  6,006
  6,367
  6,743
  7,135
  7,544
  7,972
  8,418
  8,884
Working capital, $m
  5
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
Total debt, $m
  385
  497
  632
  776
  930
  1,094
  1,267
  1,449
  1,641
  1,841
  2,050
  2,269
  2,496
  2,733
  2,979
  3,234
  3,500
  3,776
  4,063
  4,361
  4,671
  4,994
  5,330
  5,680
  6,044
  6,424
  6,820
  7,233
  7,664
  8,114
  8,585
Total liabilities, $m
  767
  879
  1,014
  1,158
  1,312
  1,476
  1,649
  1,831
  2,023
  2,223
  2,432
  2,651
  2,878
  3,115
  3,361
  3,616
  3,882
  4,158
  4,445
  4,743
  5,053
  5,376
  5,712
  6,062
  6,426
  6,806
  7,202
  7,615
  8,046
  8,496
  8,967
Total equity, $m
  673
  783
  902
  1,031
  1,168
  1,314
  1,468
  1,630
  1,801
  1,979
  2,166
  2,360
  2,562
  2,773
  2,992
  3,220
  3,456
  3,702
  3,958
  4,223
  4,499
  4,787
  5,086
  5,397
  5,721
  6,060
  6,412
  6,780
  7,164
  7,565
  7,984
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,440
  1,662
  1,916
  2,189
  2,480
  2,790
  3,117
  3,461
  3,824
  4,202
  4,598
  5,011
  5,440
  5,888
  6,353
  6,836
  7,338
  7,860
  8,403
  8,966
  9,552
  10,163
  10,798
  11,459
  12,147
  12,866
  13,614
  14,395
  15,210
  16,061
  16,951
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.572
  0.640
  0.700
  0.750
  0.800
  0.830
  0.860
  0.890
  0.910
  0.930
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.463
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471
  0.471

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  124
  206
  239
  275
  313
  353
  396
  441
  489
  538
  590
  671
  727
  785
  846
  909
  975
  1,043
  1,114
  1,188
  1,264
  1,344
  1,427
  1,514
  1,604
  1,697
  1,795
  1,897
  2,004
  2,115
  2,232
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  80
  99
  109
  119
  130
  141
  153
  166
  180
  194
  209
  188
  204
  220
  238
  256
  275
  294
  315
  336
  358
  380
  404
  429
  455
  482
  510
  539
  569
  601
  635
Funds from operations, $m
  268
  305
  347
  393
  443
  495
  550
  608
  669
  732
  799
  858
  931
  1,006
  1,084
  1,165
  1,250
  1,338
  1,429
  1,524
  1,622
  1,725
  1,831
  1,943
  2,058
  2,179
  2,305
  2,436
  2,573
  2,717
  2,866
Change in working capital, $m
  14
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  254
  304
  347
  393
  442
  494
  549
  607
  668
  731
  798
  857
  929
  1,005
  1,083
  1,164
  1,248
  1,336
  1,427
  1,522
  1,620
  1,723
  1,830
  1,941
  2,056
  2,177
  2,303
  2,434
  2,571
  2,714
  2,864
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -53
  -62
  -72
  -82
  -93
  -104
  -117
  -130
  -143
  -157
  -172
  -188
  -204
  -220
  -238
  -256
  -275
  -294
  -315
  -336
  -358
  -380
  -404
  -429
  -455
  -482
  -510
  -539
  -569
  -601
New CAPEX, $m
  -182
  -123
  -133
  -143
  -153
  -162
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -253
  -263
  -274
  -284
  -296
  -307
  -320
  -333
  -346
  -361
  -376
  -392
  -409
  -427
  -446
  -466
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -181
  -176
  -195
  -215
  -235
  -255
  -276
  -298
  -320
  -342
  -364
  -388
  -413
  -438
  -464
  -491
  -519
  -549
  -578
  -611
  -643
  -678
  -713
  -750
  -790
  -831
  -874
  -919
  -966
  -1,015
  -1,067
Free cash flow, $m
  73
  127
  152
  178
  207
  239
  273
  309
  348
  390
  433
  469
  517
  567
  619
  673
  729
  788
  849
  912
  977
  1,046
  1,116
  1,190
  1,267
  1,346
  1,429
  1,515
  1,605
  1,699
  1,796
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  91
  124
  134
  144
  154
  164
  173
  182
  191
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  246
  256
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  323
  336
  350
  364
  380
  396
  413
  431
  450
  470
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -288
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -197
  124
  134
  144
  154
  164
  173
  182
  191
  200
  209
  218
  227
  237
  246
  256
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  323
  336
  350
  364
  380
  396
  413
  431
  450
  470
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -124
  252
  286
  322
  361
  402
  446
  492
  540
  590
  642
  687
  744
  803
  865
  929
  995
  1,064
  1,136
  1,210
  1,288
  1,368
  1,452
  1,540
  1,631
  1,726
  1,825
  1,928
  2,036
  2,149
  2,267
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  150
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -211
  -219
  -228
  -237
  -246
  -255
  -266
  -276
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -353
  -368
  -384
  -401
  -419
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  142
  166
  194
  224
  257
  292
  329
  369
  412
  456
  493
  542
  593
  646
  701
  758
  818
  880
  945
  1,011
  1,081
  1,153
  1,228
  1,306
  1,388
  1,472
  1,560
  1,652
  1,748
  1,848
Discount rate, %
 
  4.50
  4.73
  4.96
  5.21
  5.47
  5.74
  6.03
  6.33
  6.65
  6.98
  7.33
  7.70
  8.08
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.82
  10.31
  10.83
  11.37
  11.94
  12.54
  13.16
  13.82
  14.51
  15.24
  16.00
  16.80
  17.64
  18.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  136
  152
  168
  183
  197
  209
  219
  226
  231
  232
  226
  222
  216
  206
  195
  181
  166
  150
  134
  117
  101
  86
  71
  58
  47
  37
  28
  21
  16
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. is a food retailer. The Company operates as a grocery store that offers fresh, natural and organic food that includes fresh produce, bulk foods, vitamins and supplements, packaged groceries, meat and seafood, deli, baked goods, dairy products, frozen foods, body care and natural household items catering to consumers' interest in health and wellness. As of February 23, 2017, the Company operated 256 stores in 14 states. The Company categorizes the varieties of products it sells as perishable and non-perishable. The perishable product categories include produce, meat, seafood, deli and bakery. Its non-perishable product categories include grocery, vitamins and supplements, bulk items, dairy and dairy alternatives, frozen foods, beer and wine, and natural health and body care.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 28.8
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 5.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 14.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 49.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 38.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 55.4%
Total Debt to Equity 57.2%
Interest Coverage 14
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Return On Total Capital 11.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Return On Equity 16.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Asset Turnover 2.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.4%
EBITDA Margin 7.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Operating Margin 5.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Net Profit Margin 3.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 37.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

SFM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SFM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4046 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sprouts Farmers Market. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Sprouts Farmers Market. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SFM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.5%, whose default value for SFM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sprouts Farmers Market, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sprouts Farmers Market.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SFM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SFM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.4% for Sprouts Farmers Market.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sprouts Farmers Market. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SFM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SFM are equal to 18.5%.

Life of production assets of 14 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sprouts Farmers Market operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SFM is equal to 0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $673 million for Sprouts Farmers Market - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 133.47 million for Sprouts Farmers Market is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sprouts Farmers Market at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.4 billion.

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▶ Sprouts Crushes Sales View Despite Amazon Cutting Whole Foods Prices   [Nov-02-17 04:02PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Sprouts Farmers tops Street 3Q forecasts   [09:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Analysts Remain Positive on Sprouts ahead of 3Q17 Results   [Oct-26-17 07:38AM  Market Realist]
▶ Sprouts Farmers Markets Valuations Touch 3-Year Low   [Oct-24-17 05:10PM  Market Realist]
▶ Sprouts Farmers Market: 3Q17 Earnings Preview   [05:10PM  Market Realist]
▶ Sprouts Farmers Market picks second Triangle location   [Oct-19-17 03:10PM  American City Business Journals]
Financial statements of SFM
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