Intrinsic value of Sangamo Therapeutics - SGMO

Previous Close

$13.88

  Intrinsic Value

$2.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$13.88

 
Intrinsic value

$2.52

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SGMO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  59
  90
  135
  196
  277
  380
  511
  671
  863
  1,090
  1,353
  1,655
  1,994
  2,373
  2,790
  3,245
  3,738
  4,268
  4,834
  5,435
  6,070
  6,739
  7,441
  8,176
  8,943
  9,743
  10,577
  11,444
  12,345
  13,282
Variable operating expenses, $m
  55
  85
  127
  185
  261
  358
  481
  632
  813
  1,026
  1,274
  1,558
  1,878
  2,234
  2,627
  3,056
  3,520
  4,019
  4,552
  5,118
  5,716
  6,346
  7,007
  7,699
  8,421
  9,175
  9,960
  10,776
  11,625
  12,508
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  78
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  90
  92
  94
  97
  99
  101
  103
  105
  108
  110
  112
  115
  117
  120
  123
  125
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  143
  146
Total operating expenses, $m
  133
  164
  208
  268
  346
  445
  570
  722
  905
  1,120
  1,371
  1,657
  1,979
  2,337
  2,732
  3,164
  3,630
  4,131
  4,667
  5,235
  5,836
  6,469
  7,132
  7,827
  8,552
  9,309
  10,097
  10,916
  11,768
  12,654
Operating income, $m
  -74
  -74
  -73
  -72
  -69
  -65
  -59
  -51
  -42
  -31
  -18
  -2
  15
  35
  57
  82
  108
  137
  167
  200
  234
  270
  309
  349
  391
  435
  480
  528
  577
  629
EBITDA, $m
  -72
  -71
  -68
  -64
  -58
  -50
  -39
  -25
  -8
  12
  35
  62
  93
  128
  166
  208
  254
  303
  355
  411
  471
  533
  599
  667
  739
  814
  892
  974
  1,058
  1,146
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  5
  10
  17
  27
  39
  54
  72
  95
  121
  152
  187
  226
  270
  318
  371
  428
  490
  555
  625
  699
  776
  858
  943
  1,032
  1,125
  1,221
  1,322
  1,427
Earnings before tax, $m
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -139
  -154
  -171
  -191
  -212
  -237
  -263
  -292
  -323
  -356
  -391
  -428
  -468
  -509
  -552
  -597
  -645
  -694
  -745
  -798
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -139
  -154
  -171
  -191
  -212
  -237
  -263
  -292
  -323
  -356
  -391
  -428
  -468
  -509
  -552
  -597
  -645
  -694
  -745
  -798

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  140
  216
  323
  468
  660
  908
  1,219
  1,600
  2,059
  2,601
  3,230
  3,949
  4,760
  5,663
  6,659
  7,746
  8,922
  10,187
  11,537
  12,971
  14,487
  16,083
  17,758
  19,512
  21,344
  23,254
  25,243
  27,312
  29,464
  31,700
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  140
  216
  323
  468
  660
  908
  1,219
  1,600
  2,059
  2,601
  3,230
  3,949
  4,760
  5,663
  6,659
  7,746
  8,922
  10,187
  11,537
  12,971
  14,487
  16,083
  17,758
  19,512
  21,344
  23,254
  25,243
  27,312
  29,464
  31,700
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.421
  0.417
  0.418
  0.419
  0.420
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
  0.419
Average production assets, $m
  31
  48
  72
  104
  147
  202
  271
  355
  457
  578
  717
  877
  1,057
  1,258
  1,479
  1,720
  1,981
  2,262
  2,562
  2,880
  3,217
  3,572
  3,944
  4,333
  4,740
  5,164
  5,606
  6,065
  6,543
  7,040
Working capital, $m
  -63
  -97
  -145
  -211
  -297
  -409
  -549
  -721
  -928
  -1,172
  -1,455
  -1,779
  -2,144
  -2,551
  -2,999
  -3,489
  -4,019
  -4,588
  -5,197
  -5,843
  -6,525
  -7,244
  -7,999
  -8,789
  -9,614
  -10,474
  -11,370
  -12,302
  -13,271
  -14,279
Total debt, $m
  27
  95
  192
  322
  496
  718
  998
  1,341
  1,754
  2,242
  2,808
  3,455
  4,185
  4,998
  5,894
  6,872
  7,931
  9,069
  10,285
  11,575
  12,939
  14,376
  15,884
  17,462
  19,110
  20,829
  22,619
  24,482
  26,419
  28,431
Total liabilities, $m
  126
  194
  290
  421
  594
  817
  1,097
  1,440
  1,853
  2,341
  2,907
  3,554
  4,284
  5,097
  5,993
  6,971
  8,030
  9,168
  10,383
  11,674
  13,038
  14,475
  15,983
  17,561
  19,209
  20,928
  22,718
  24,581
  26,517
  28,530
Total equity, $m
  14
  22
  32
  47
  66
  91
  122
  160
  206
  260
  323
  395
  476
  566
  666
  775
  892
  1,019
  1,154
  1,297
  1,449
  1,608
  1,776
  1,951
  2,134
  2,325
  2,524
  2,731
  2,946
  3,170
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  140
  216
  322
  468
  660
  908
  1,219
  1,600
  2,059
  2,601
  3,230
  3,949
  4,760
  5,663
  6,659
  7,746
  8,922
  10,187
  11,537
  12,971
  14,487
  16,083
  17,759
  19,512
  21,343
  23,253
  25,242
  27,312
  29,463
  31,700
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.920
  4.420
  5.940
  6.890
  7.500
  7.910
  8.190
  8.380
  8.520
  8.620
  8.690
  8.750
  8.790
  8.830
  8.850
  8.870
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -74
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -115
  -126
  -139
  -154
  -171
  -191
  -212
  -237
  -263
  -292
  -323
  -356
  -391
  -428
  -468
  -509
  -552
  -597
  -645
  -694
  -745
  -798
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  4
  5
  8
  11
  15
  20
  26
  34
  43
  53
  64
  78
  92
  109
  126
  146
  166
  188
  212
  237
  263
  290
  319
  349
  380
  412
  446
  481
  518
Funds from operations, $m
  -72
  -72
  -73
  -74
  -75
  -76
  -78
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -166
  -178
  -190
  -204
  -218
  -232
  -248
  -264
  -280
Change in working capital, $m
  -24
  -34
  -48
  -66
  -87
  -111
  -140
  -172
  -207
  -244
  -283
  -324
  -365
  -407
  -448
  -490
  -530
  -570
  -608
  -646
  -683
  -719
  -755
  -790
  -825
  -860
  -896
  -932
  -969
  -1,007
Cash from operations, $m
  -48
  -38
  -25
  -9
  11
  35
  62
  93
  126
  161
  197
  235
  272
  309
  345
  379
  413
  444
  474
  502
  528
  553
  577
  600
  621
  643
  664
  684
  706
  727
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -2
  -4
  -5
  -8
  -11
  -15
  -20
  -26
  -34
  -42
  -53
  -64
  -78
  -92
  -109
  -126
  -146
  -166
  -188
  -212
  -237
  -263
  -290
  -319
  -349
  -380
  -412
  -446
  -481
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -17
  -24
  -32
  -43
  -55
  -69
  -85
  -102
  -120
  -140
  -160
  -180
  -201
  -221
  -241
  -261
  -281
  -300
  -318
  -337
  -354
  -372
  -389
  -407
  -424
  -442
  -460
  -478
  -497
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -19
  -28
  -37
  -51
  -66
  -84
  -105
  -128
  -154
  -182
  -213
  -244
  -279
  -313
  -350
  -387
  -427
  -466
  -506
  -549
  -591
  -635
  -679
  -726
  -773
  -822
  -872
  -924
  -978
Free cash flow, $m
  -61
  -57
  -52
  -46
  -39
  -31
  -21
  -12
  -2
  7
  15
  22
  27
  30
  31
  29
  25
  18
  8
  -5
  -20
  -38
  -58
  -80
  -104
  -130
  -158
  -187
  -218
  -251
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  27
  68
  96
  131
  173
  223
  280
  343
  413
  488
  566
  647
  730
  813
  896
  978
  1,059
  1,138
  1,215
  1,291
  1,364
  1,437
  1,508
  1,578
  1,648
  1,719
  1,790
  1,862
  1,937
  2,013
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  99
  83
  89
  97
  105
  116
  129
  144
  161
  180
  202
  226
  252
  281
  312
  345
  381
  418
  458
  499
  543
  588
  635
  684
  735
  788
  843
  901
  960
  1,021
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  126
  151
  185
  228
  278
  339
  409
  487
  574
  668
  768
  873
  982
  1,094
  1,208
  1,323
  1,440
  1,556
  1,673
  1,790
  1,907
  2,025
  2,143
  2,262
  2,383
  2,507
  2,633
  2,763
  2,897
  3,034
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  65
  95
  133
  181
  240
  308
  387
  475
  571
  674
  783
  895
  1,009
  1,124
  1,239
  1,353
  1,465
  1,574
  1,681
  1,785
  1,887
  1,987
  2,085
  2,183
  2,280
  2,377
  2,476
  2,576
  2,678
  2,784
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -99
  -83
  -89
  -97
  -105
  -116
  -129
  -144
  -161
  -180
  -202
  -226
  -252
  -281
  -312
  -345
  -381
  -418
  -458
  -499
  -543
  -588
  -635
  -684
  -735
  -788
  -843
  -901
  -960
  -1,021
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  198
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  164
  12
  44
  85
  134
  192
  258
  332
  411
  494
  581
  669
  757
  843
  927
  1,008
  1,084
  1,156
  1,223
  1,286
  1,344
  1,399
  1,450
  1,498
  1,544
  1,589
  1,632
  1,675
  1,718
  1,762
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  157
  11
  38
  70
  104
  139
  174
  207
  236
  259
  276
  286
  288
  283
  272
  256
  236
  213
  188
  163
  139
  116
  95
  76
  60
  46
  35
  26
  19
  13
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  27.8
  17.9
  12.8
  9.9
  8.0
  6.7
  5.8
  5.1
  4.6
  4.2
  3.8
  3.5
  3.2
  3.0
  2.8
  2.7
  2.5
  2.4
  2.2
  2.1
  2.0
  1.9
  1.8
  1.7
  1.6
  1.6
  1.5
  1.4
  1.4

Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc., formerly Sangamo BioSciences, Inc., is a clinical-stage biotechnology company. The Company is focused on translating science into genomic therapies that transform patients' lives using the Company's platform technologies in genome editing, gene therapy, gene regulation and cell therapy. The Company has clinical and preclinical programs in development and partnered certain programs with biopharmaceutical companies to expedite clinical and commercial development. The focus for its Company is the development of human therapeutics. The Company's product pipeline includes SB-525, SB-FIX, SB-318, SB-913, SB-728-T and SB-728-HSPC. The Company has initiated a Phase I/II clinical trial evaluating its zinc finger nuclease (ZFN) in vivo genome editing approach for the treatment of hemophilia B. In the development of its ZFP technology platform, it is focusing its resources on product development for therapeutic use in humans and on its non-therapeutic applications.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13.7
Price to Sales 51.8
Price to Book 7.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -14.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -14.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -52.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.9%
Total Debt to Equity 2.9%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -38.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.3%
Return On Total Capital -43.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.6%
Return On Equity -43.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -26.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -373.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -180.2%
Operating Margin -384.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -186%
Pre-Tax Margin -378.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -183.5%
Net Profit Margin -378.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -179.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SGMO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SGMO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $36.567 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sangamo Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Sangamo Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SGMO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SGMO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sangamo Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sangamo Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SGMO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $76 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SGMO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Sangamo Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sangamo Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SGMO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SGMO are equal to 53%.

Life of production assets of 13.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sangamo Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SGMO is equal to -107.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $187.9 million for Sangamo Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 101.495 million for Sangamo Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sangamo Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Heres What Was Behind Sangamos Horrendous Week   [Sep-08-18 08:30AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. Sank Again Today   [Sep-06-18 05:00PM  Motley Fool]
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▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [Sep-05-18 05:04PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Sangamo Therapeutics Shot 33.7% Higher in August   [Sep-03-18 01:23PM  Motley Fool]
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▶ Why Sangamo Therapeutics, Inc. Stock Is Popping Today   [Aug-09-18 12:20PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sangamo Therapeutics to Acquire TxCell   [02:30AM  PR Newswire]
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▶ Sangamo Therapeutics Stock History   [May-17-18 10:38AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Sangamo Therapeutics Stock Dropped Today   [May-08-18 01:50PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Sangamo: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [07:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ Sangamo Therapeutics Announces Senior Leadership Changes   [May-03-18 04:30PM  PR Newswire]
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