Intrinsic value of Scientific Games - SGMS

Previous Close

$19.30

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$19.30

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SGMS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  3,398
  3,727
  4,070
  4,428
  4,801
  5,188
  5,591
  6,010
  6,445
  6,897
  7,366
  7,855
  8,363
  8,892
  9,442
  10,015
  10,613
  11,235
  11,885
  12,562
  13,270
  14,009
  14,781
  15,588
  16,432
  17,315
  18,239
  19,207
  20,219
  21,280
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,195
  3,457
  3,730
  4,015
  4,312
  4,620
  4,941
  5,274
  5,620
  5,980
  5,864
  6,253
  6,658
  7,079
  7,517
  7,973
  8,449
  8,944
  9,461
  10,001
  10,564
  11,152
  11,767
  12,410
  13,082
  13,785
  14,520
  15,290
  16,096
  16,941
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,195
  3,457
  3,730
  4,015
  4,312
  4,620
  4,941
  5,274
  5,620
  5,980
  5,864
  6,253
  6,658
  7,079
  7,517
  7,973
  8,449
  8,944
  9,461
  10,001
  10,564
  11,152
  11,767
  12,410
  13,082
  13,785
  14,520
  15,290
  16,096
  16,941
Operating income, $m
  203
  270
  340
  413
  489
  568
  650
  735
  824
  916
  1,502
  1,602
  1,705
  1,813
  1,925
  2,042
  2,164
  2,291
  2,423
  2,562
  2,706
  2,857
  3,014
  3,179
  3,351
  3,531
  3,719
  3,916
  4,123
  4,339
EBITDA, $m
  1,107
  1,214
  1,326
  1,442
  1,564
  1,690
  1,821
  1,958
  2,099
  2,246
  2,400
  2,559
  2,724
  2,896
  3,076
  3,262
  3,457
  3,660
  3,871
  4,092
  4,323
  4,563
  4,815
  5,078
  5,353
  5,640
  5,941
  6,256
  6,586
  6,932
Interest expense (income), $m
  622
  632
  465
  516
  570
  626
  684
  745
  808
  873
  941
  1,012
  1,086
  1,162
  1,242
  1,324
  1,411
  1,500
  1,594
  1,691
  1,793
  1,899
  2,010
  2,125
  2,246
  2,373
  2,505
  2,643
  2,788
  2,939
  3,097
Earnings before tax, $m
  -429
  -195
  -176
  -157
  -137
  -116
  -95
  -72
  -49
  -25
  490
  516
  543
  571
  601
  632
  664
  697
  732
  769
  807
  847
  889
  932
  978
  1,026
  1,076
  1,129
  1,184
  1,242
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  132
  139
  147
  154
  162
  171
  179
  188
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
  320
  335
Net income, $m
  -429
  -195
  -176
  -157
  -137
  -116
  -95
  -72
  -49
  -25
  358
  377
  397
  417
  439
  461
  485
  509
  534
  561
  589
  618
  649
  681
  714
  749
  786
  824
  864
  906

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,208
  9,003
  9,832
  10,696
  11,596
  12,532
  13,505
  14,516
  15,567
  16,658
  17,793
  18,973
  20,201
  21,478
  22,807
  24,192
  25,634
  27,138
  28,707
  30,344
  32,053
  33,838
  35,703
  37,653
  39,692
  41,825
  44,057
  46,393
  48,838
  51,400
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,208
  9,003
  9,832
  10,696
  11,596
  12,532
  13,505
  14,516
  15,567
  16,658
  17,793
  18,973
  20,201
  21,478
  22,807
  24,192
  25,634
  27,138
  28,707
  30,344
  32,053
  33,838
  35,703
  37,653
  39,692
  41,825
  44,057
  46,393
  48,838
  51,400
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
  0.414
Average production assets, $m
  3,395
  3,723
  4,066
  4,424
  4,796
  5,183
  5,585
  6,004
  6,438
  6,890
  7,359
  7,847
  8,355
  8,883
  9,433
  10,005
  10,602
  11,224
  11,873
  12,550
  13,257
  13,995
  14,766
  15,573
  16,416
  17,298
  18,221
  19,187
  20,199
  21,258
Working capital, $m
  221
  242
  265
  288
  312
  337
  363
  391
  419
  448
  479
  511
  544
  578
  614
  651
  690
  730
  773
  817
  863
  911
  961
  1,013
  1,068
  1,126
  1,186
  1,248
  1,314
  1,383
Total debt, $m
  6,452
  7,167
  7,913
  8,691
  9,501
  10,343
  11,219
  12,129
  13,074
  14,057
  15,079
  16,141
  17,245
  18,395
  19,591
  20,837
  22,136
  23,489
  24,901
  26,374
  27,913
  29,519
  31,198
  32,952
  34,787
  36,707
  38,716
  40,818
  43,019
  45,325
Total liabilities, $m
  7,387
  8,102
  8,849
  9,627
  10,436
  11,279
  12,154
  13,064
  14,010
  14,993
  16,014
  17,076
  18,181
  19,330
  20,526
  21,773
  23,071
  24,425
  25,836
  27,310
  28,848
  30,454
  32,133
  33,888
  35,723
  37,642
  39,651
  41,753
  43,955
  46,260
Total equity, $m
  821
  900
  983
  1,070
  1,160
  1,253
  1,350
  1,452
  1,557
  1,666
  1,779
  1,897
  2,020
  2,148
  2,281
  2,419
  2,563
  2,714
  2,871
  3,034
  3,205
  3,384
  3,570
  3,765
  3,969
  4,182
  4,406
  4,639
  4,884
  5,140
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,208
  9,002
  9,832
  10,697
  11,596
  12,532
  13,504
  14,516
  15,567
  16,659
  17,793
  18,973
  20,201
  21,478
  22,807
  24,192
  25,634
  27,139
  28,707
  30,344
  32,053
  33,838
  35,703
  37,653
  39,692
  41,824
  44,057
  46,392
  48,839
  51,400
Debt-to-equity ratio
  7.860
  7.960
  8.050
  8.130
  8.190
  8.250
  8.310
  8.360
  8.400
  8.440
  8.470
  8.510
  8.540
  8.560
  8.590
  8.610
  8.640
  8.660
  8.670
  8.690
  8.710
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
  8.760
  8.780
  8.790
  8.800
  8.810
  8.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -429
  -195
  -176
  -157
  -137
  -116
  -95
  -72
  -49
  -25
  358
  377
  397
  417
  439
  461
  485
  509
  534
  561
  589
  618
  649
  681
  714
  749
  786
  824
  864
  906
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  904
  944
  986
  1,029
  1,075
  1,122
  1,171
  1,222
  1,275
  1,330
  897
  957
  1,019
  1,083
  1,150
  1,220
  1,293
  1,369
  1,448
  1,530
  1,617
  1,707
  1,801
  1,899
  2,002
  2,110
  2,222
  2,340
  2,463
  2,592
Funds from operations, $m
  475
  750
  810
  873
  938
  1,006
  1,076
  1,150
  1,226
  1,305
  1,255
  1,334
  1,415
  1,500
  1,589
  1,681
  1,777
  1,878
  1,982
  2,092
  2,206
  2,325
  2,449
  2,580
  2,716
  2,859
  3,008
  3,164
  3,328
  3,499
Change in working capital, $m
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
Cash from operations, $m
  455
  728
  788
  849
  914
  981
  1,050
  1,123
  1,198
  1,276
  1,225
  1,302
  1,382
  1,466
  1,553
  1,644
  1,739
  1,837
  1,940
  2,048
  2,160
  2,277
  2,399
  2,527
  2,661
  2,801
  2,948
  3,101
  3,262
  3,430
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -376
  -414
  -454
  -496
  -539
  -585
  -632
  -681
  -732
  -785
  -840
  -897
  -957
  -1,019
  -1,083
  -1,150
  -1,220
  -1,293
  -1,369
  -1,448
  -1,530
  -1,617
  -1,707
  -1,801
  -1,899
  -2,002
  -2,110
  -2,222
  -2,340
  -2,463
New CAPEX, $m
  -313
  -329
  -343
  -357
  -372
  -387
  -402
  -418
  -435
  -452
  -469
  -488
  -508
  -528
  -550
  -573
  -597
  -622
  -649
  -677
  -707
  -738
  -771
  -806
  -843
  -882
  -923
  -966
  -1,012
  -1,059
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -689
  -743
  -797
  -853
  -911
  -972
  -1,034
  -1,099
  -1,167
  -1,237
  -1,309
  -1,385
  -1,465
  -1,547
  -1,633
  -1,723
  -1,817
  -1,915
  -2,018
  -2,125
  -2,237
  -2,355
  -2,478
  -2,607
  -2,742
  -2,884
  -3,033
  -3,188
  -3,352
  -3,522
Free cash flow, $m
  -234
  -14
  -10
  -4
  2
  9
  16
  23
  31
  39
  -85
  -84
  -82
  -81
  -80
  -79
  -78
  -78
  -77
  -77
  -78
  -78
  -79
  -80
  -81
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -90
  -93
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -2,325
  715
  746
  778
  810
  842
  876
  910
  946
  983
  1,021
  1,062
  1,105
  1,149
  1,196
  1,246
  1,298
  1,354
  1,412
  1,473
  1,538
  1,607
  1,679
  1,755
  1,835
  1,919
  2,009
  2,102
  2,201
  2,305
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3,515
  274
  259
  243
  227
  210
  192
  173
  154
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,190
  989
  1,005
  1,021
  1,037
  1,052
  1,068
  1,083
  1,100
  1,117
  1,021
  1,062
  1,105
  1,149
  1,196
  1,246
  1,298
  1,354
  1,412
  1,473
  1,538
  1,607
  1,679
  1,755
  1,835
  1,919
  2,009
  2,102
  2,201
  2,305
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  955
  975
  996
  1,017
  1,039
  1,061
  1,083
  1,107
  1,131
  1,156
  936
  978
  1,022
  1,068
  1,117
  1,167
  1,220
  1,276
  1,334
  1,396
  1,461
  1,528
  1,600
  1,675
  1,754
  1,837
  1,924
  2,015
  2,112
  2,213
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3,515
  -274
  -259
  -243
  -227
  -210
  -192
  -173
  -154
  -134
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -234
  -245
  -256
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  238
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -2,321
  701
  737
  774
  812
  851
  891
  933
  977
  1,022
  823
  860
  900
  941
  984
  1,029
  1,076
  1,126
  1,178
  1,232
  1,290
  1,350
  1,413
  1,480
  1,550
  1,623
  1,701
  1,782
  1,867
  1,957
Discount rate, %
  14.90
  15.65
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.76
  28.10
  29.50
  30.98
  32.52
  34.15
  35.86
  37.65
  39.53
  41.51
  43.59
  45.77
  48.05
  50.46
  52.98
  55.63
  58.41
  61.33
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -2,020
  524
  467
  410
  353
  299
  249
  204
  163
  128
  75
  56
  41
  29
  20
  14
  9
  6
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  37.5
  29.1
  23.3
  19.3
  16.3
  14.1
  12.5
  11.3
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4
  10.4

Scientific Games Corporation is a developer of technology-based products and services and associated content for the gaming, lottery and interactive gaming industries. Its segments include Gaming, Lottery and Interactive. Its portfolio includes gaming machines and game content, casino management systems, table game products and services, instant and draw-based lottery games, server-based gaming and lottery systems, sports betting technology, lottery content and services, loyalty and rewards programs, interactive gaming and social casino solutions. Gaming segment designs, develops, manufactures, markets and distributes a portfolio of gaming products and services. Lottery segment consists of its systems-based services and product sales business and its instant games business. Its Interactive business segment includes social (non-wagering) gaming and interactive real-money gaming (RMG). Its games are available on Facebook, Amazon.com, the Apple app store and Android app on Google play.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Scientific Games (SGMS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.8
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book -0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -414.5%
Total Debt to Equity -417%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Return On Total Capital -5.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.3%
Return On Equity 20.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 58%
EBITDA Margin 30.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Operating Margin 5.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -16.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.2%
Net Profit Margin -12.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -25.3%
Effective Tax Rate 26.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

SGMS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SGMS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3083.6 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Scientific Games. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Scientific Games. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SGMS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.9%, whose default value for SGMS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Scientific Games, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Scientific Games.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SGMS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SGMS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.2% for Scientific Games.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Scientific Games. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SGMS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SGMS are equal to 99.9%.

Life of production assets of 8.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Scientific Games operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SGMS is equal to 6.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-2027 million for Scientific Games - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 87.566 million for Scientific Games is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Scientific Games at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Why Scientific Games Corp. Shares Plunged 19% Today   [Aug-02-18 04:20PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Scientific Games: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:50PM  Associated Press]
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