Intrinsic value of Shake Shack Cl A - SHAK

Previous Close

$50.39

  Intrinsic Value

$54.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+9%

Previous close

$50.39

 
Intrinsic value

$54.73

 
Up/down potential

+9%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SHAK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  27.30
  25.07
  23.06
  21.26
  19.63
  18.17
  16.85
  15.67
  14.60
  13.64
  12.78
  12.00
  11.30
  10.67
  10.10
  9.59
  9.13
  8.72
  8.35
  8.01
  7.71
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
Revenue, $m
  457
  571
  703
  852
  1,020
  1,205
  1,408
  1,629
  1,867
  2,121
  2,392
  2,679
  2,982
  3,300
  3,633
  3,982
  4,345
  4,724
  5,119
  5,529
  5,955
  6,398
  6,859
  7,337
  7,834
  8,352
  8,889
  9,449
  10,032
  10,639
Variable operating expenses, $m
  410
  512
  631
  765
  915
  1,081
  1,263
  1,461
  1,674
  1,903
  2,146
  2,403
  2,675
  2,960
  3,259
  3,572
  3,898
  4,238
  4,591
  4,959
  5,342
  5,739
  6,152
  6,581
  7,027
  7,491
  7,974
  8,476
  8,999
  9,543
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  410
  512
  631
  765
  915
  1,081
  1,263
  1,461
  1,674
  1,903
  2,146
  2,403
  2,675
  2,960
  3,259
  3,572
  3,898
  4,238
  4,591
  4,959
  5,342
  5,739
  6,152
  6,581
  7,027
  7,491
  7,974
  8,476
  8,999
  9,543
Operating income, $m
  47
  59
  72
  88
  105
  124
  145
  168
  192
  218
  246
  276
  307
  340
  374
  410
  448
  487
  527
  569
  613
  659
  706
  756
  807
  860
  916
  973
  1,033
  1,096
EBITDA, $m
  75
  94
  115
  140
  167
  197
  231
  267
  306
  347
  392
  439
  488
  541
  595
  652
  712
  774
  838
  906
  976
  1,048
  1,124
  1,202
  1,283
  1,368
  1,456
  1,548
  1,643
  1,743
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  4
  10
  16
  22
  30
  38
  48
  57
  68
  80
  92
  105
  119
  133
  148
  164
  181
  198
  216
  234
  253
  273
  294
  316
  339
  362
  386
  412
  438
Earnings before tax, $m
  47
  54
  63
  72
  83
  94
  107
  120
  135
  150
  167
  184
  202
  221
  241
  262
  284
  306
  330
  354
  379
  406
  433
  461
  491
  522
  554
  587
  622
  658
Tax expense, $m
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  29
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  102
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  168
  178
Net income, $m
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  69
  78
  88
  98
  110
  122
  134
  148
  161
  176
  191
  207
  223
  241
  258
  277
  296
  316
  337
  358
  381
  404
  428
  454
  480

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  534
  668
  822
  997
  1,193
  1,409
  1,647
  1,905
  2,183
  2,481
  2,798
  3,134
  3,488
  3,860
  4,249
  4,657
  5,082
  5,526
  5,987
  6,466
  6,965
  7,483
  8,022
  8,581
  9,163
  9,768
  10,397
  11,052
  11,733
  12,443
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  534
  668
  822
  997
  1,193
  1,409
  1,647
  1,905
  2,183
  2,481
  2,798
  3,134
  3,488
  3,860
  4,249
  4,657
  5,082
  5,526
  5,987
  6,466
  6,965
  7,483
  8,022
  8,581
  9,163
  9,768
  10,397
  11,052
  11,733
  12,443
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.856
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
  0.855
Average production assets, $m
  206
  257
  316
  384
  459
  542
  634
  733
  840
  955
  1,076
  1,206
  1,342
  1,485
  1,635
  1,792
  1,955
  2,126
  2,303
  2,488
  2,680
  2,879
  3,086
  3,302
  3,525
  3,758
  4,000
  4,252
  4,514
  4,788
Working capital, $m
  -32
  -41
  -50
  -61
  -72
  -86
  -100
  -116
  -133
  -151
  -170
  -190
  -212
  -234
  -258
  -283
  -309
  -335
  -363
  -393
  -423
  -454
  -487
  -521
  -556
  -593
  -631
  -671
  -712
  -755
Total debt, $m
  82
  178
  288
  414
  554
  709
  880
  1,065
  1,264
  1,478
  1,705
  1,946
  2,199
  2,466
  2,746
  3,038
  3,343
  3,661
  3,991
  4,335
  4,693
  5,064
  5,450
  5,852
  6,269
  6,702
  7,154
  7,623
  8,112
  8,621
Total liabilities, $m
  383
  479
  590
  715
  855
  1,011
  1,181
  1,366
  1,565
  1,779
  2,006
  2,247
  2,501
  2,767
  3,047
  3,339
  3,644
  3,962
  4,292
  4,636
  4,994
  5,365
  5,752
  6,153
  6,570
  7,004
  7,455
  7,924
  8,413
  8,922
Total equity, $m
  151
  189
  233
  282
  338
  399
  466
  539
  618
  702
  792
  887
  987
  1,092
  1,203
  1,318
  1,438
  1,564
  1,694
  1,830
  1,971
  2,118
  2,270
  2,429
  2,593
  2,764
  2,942
  3,128
  3,321
  3,521
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  534
  668
  823
  997
  1,193
  1,410
  1,647
  1,905
  2,183
  2,481
  2,798
  3,134
  3,488
  3,859
  4,250
  4,657
  5,082
  5,526
  5,986
  6,466
  6,965
  7,483
  8,022
  8,582
  9,163
  9,768
  10,397
  11,052
  11,734
  12,443
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.540
  0.940
  1.240
  1.470
  1.640
  1.780
  1.890
  1.980
  2.050
  2.100
  2.150
  2.190
  2.230
  2.260
  2.280
  2.310
  2.320
  2.340
  2.360
  2.370
  2.380
  2.390
  2.400
  2.410
  2.420
  2.420
  2.430
  2.440
  2.440
  2.450
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283
  0.283

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  34
  40
  46
  53
  60
  69
  78
  88
  98
  110
  122
  134
  148
  161
  176
  191
  207
  223
  241
  258
  277
  296
  316
  337
  358
  381
  404
  428
  454
  480
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  28
  35
  43
  52
  62
  73
  86
  99
  114
  129
  145
  163
  181
  201
  221
  242
  264
  287
  311
  336
  362
  389
  417
  446
  476
  508
  541
  575
  610
  647
Funds from operations, $m
  62
  74
  89
  105
  122
  142
  164
  187
  212
  239
  267
  297
  329
  362
  397
  433
  471
  511
  552
  595
  639
  685
  733
  783
  835
  889
  945
  1,003
  1,064
  1,127
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
Cash from operations, $m
  69
  83
  98
  115
  134
  155
  178
  202
  229
  257
  286
  318
  350
  385
  421
  458
  497
  538
  580
  624
  669
  717
  766
  817
  870
  925
  983
  1,043
  1,105
  1,170
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -28
  -35
  -43
  -52
  -62
  -73
  -86
  -99
  -114
  -129
  -145
  -163
  -181
  -201
  -221
  -242
  -264
  -287
  -311
  -336
  -362
  -389
  -417
  -446
  -476
  -508
  -541
  -575
  -610
New CAPEX, $m
  -44
  -52
  -59
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -262
  -273
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -66
  -80
  -94
  -110
  -127
  -145
  -164
  -185
  -206
  -229
  -251
  -274
  -299
  -324
  -351
  -378
  -406
  -434
  -464
  -496
  -528
  -561
  -596
  -632
  -670
  -709
  -750
  -793
  -837
  -883
Free cash flow, $m
  3
  3
  4
  5
  7
  10
  13
  18
  23
  29
  35
  43
  51
  60
  70
  80
  91
  103
  115
  128
  141
  155
  170
  185
  200
  216
  233
  250
  268
  287
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  82
  96
  110
  125
  140
  155
  170
  185
  199
  213
  227
  241
  254
  267
  280
  292
  305
  318
  331
  344
  358
  372
  386
  401
  417
  434
  451
  469
  489
  509
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  82
  96
  110
  125
  140
  155
  170
  185
  199
  213
  227
  241
  254
  267
  280
  292
  305
  318
  331
  344
  358
  372
  386
  401
  417
  434
  451
  469
  489
  509
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  85
  99
  114
  130
  147
  165
  184
  203
  222
  242
  263
  284
  305
  327
  349
  373
  396
  421
  446
  472
  499
  527
  556
  586
  617
  650
  684
  720
  757
  796
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -136
  -141
  -147
  -152
  -158
  -165
  -171
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -201
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  51
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  104
  61
  71
  81
  92
  104
  116
  130
  143
  158
  173
  189
  205
  222
  239
  257
  276
  295
  315
  336
  358
  380
  403
  427
  453
  479
  506
  535
  564
  595
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  99
  56
  62
  67
  71
  75
  79
  81
  82
  83
  82
  80
  78
  74
  70
  65
  60
  54
  49
  43
  37
  32
  26
  22
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
  4
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Shake Shack Inc. operates roadside burger stands. The Company serves an American menu of burgers, hot dogs, crispy chicken, frozen custard, crinkle cut fries, shakes, beer and wine, among others. The Company's signature items are its all-natural, hormone and antibiotic-free burgers, hot dogs, crispy chicken, crinkle cut fries, shakes and frozen custard. Its menu focuses on food and beverages, crafted from a range of classic American foods. The Company's domestic menu includes a range of signature items, such as the ShackBurger, SmokeShack, Shack-cago Dog, 'Shroom Burger, seasonal frozen custard, hand-spun shakes, concretes, ShackMeister Ale, and Shack Red and Shack White wines. As of December 28, 2016, it had 114 Shacks in 13 countries and 16 states, as well as the District of Columbia. Its burgers are made with a whole-muscle blend of all-natural, hormone and antibiotic-free Angus beef, ground fresh daily, cooked to order and served on a non-genetically modified organism potato bun.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Shake Shack Cl A (SHAK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 152.8
Price to Sales 6.8
Price to Book 12.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 34
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 40.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 68.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 27.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Return On Total Capital 9.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Equity 9.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.8%
EBITDA Margin 16.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Operating Margin 10.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Net Profit Margin 4.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 24.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

SHAK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SHAK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $358.81 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Shake Shack Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Shake Shack Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SHAK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 27.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SHAK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Shake Shack Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Shake Shack Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SHAK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SHAK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Shake Shack Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Shake Shack Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SHAK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SHAK are equal to 45%.

Life of production assets of 7.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Shake Shack Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SHAK is equal to -7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $169.492 million for Shake Shack Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.214 million for Shake Shack Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Shake Shack Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.5 billion.

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