Intrinsic value of Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp - SHIP

Previous Close

$0.64

  Intrinsic Value

$1.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+202%

Previous close

$0.64

 
Intrinsic value

$1.93

 
Up/down potential

+202%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SHIP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  120
  185
  277
  402
  568
  780
  1,047
  1,375
  1,770
  2,235
  2,776
  3,393
  4,090
  4,867
  5,722
  6,656
  7,668
  8,754
  9,915
  11,147
  12,450
  13,822
  15,261
  16,768
  18,342
  19,984
  21,693
  23,471
  25,321
  27,243
Variable operating expenses, $m
  67
  104
  155
  225
  318
  437
  587
  770
  991
  1,252
  1,554
  1,900
  2,291
  2,725
  3,204
  3,728
  4,294
  4,902
  5,552
  6,242
  6,972
  7,740
  8,546
  9,390
  10,272
  11,191
  12,148
  13,144
  14,180
  15,256
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
Total operating expenses, $m
  99
  136
  188
  259
  353
  472
  623
  807
  1,029
  1,291
  1,593
  1,940
  2,332
  2,767
  3,247
  3,772
  4,339
  4,948
  5,599
  6,290
  7,021
  7,790
  8,597
  9,442
  10,325
  11,246
  12,204
  13,201
  14,238
  15,316
Operating income, $m
  21
  49
  89
  143
  215
  308
  425
  568
  741
  945
  1,182
  1,453
  1,759
  2,099
  2,475
  2,885
  3,329
  3,806
  4,316
  4,857
  5,429
  6,031
  6,664
  7,326
  8,017
  8,738
  9,489
  10,270
  11,083
  11,927
EBITDA, $m
  38
  75
  128
  200
  295
  418
  572
  761
  990
  1,259
  1,572
  1,930
  2,333
  2,783
  3,279
  3,820
  4,406
  5,036
  5,709
  6,423
  7,178
  7,974
  8,808
  9,682
  10,595
  11,546
  12,537
  13,569
  14,641
  15,755
Interest expense (income), $m
  8
  17
  29
  46
  70
  103
  146
  202
  272
  358
  462
  584
  726
  888
  1,071
  1,275
  1,499
  1,745
  2,010
  2,295
  2,600
  2,923
  3,265
  3,625
  4,003
  4,399
  4,812
  5,243
  5,692
  6,159
  6,644
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  20
  43
  73
  112
  162
  223
  296
  383
  483
  598
  727
  871
  1,028
  1,200
  1,386
  1,584
  1,796
  2,020
  2,257
  2,506
  2,766
  3,038
  3,322
  3,618
  3,926
  4,246
  4,579
  4,924
  5,283
Tax expense, $m
  1
  6
  12
  20
  30
  44
  60
  80
  103
  130
  161
  196
  235
  278
  324
  374
  428
  485
  545
  609
  677
  747
  820
  897
  977
  1,060
  1,146
  1,236
  1,330
  1,426
Net income, $m
  3
  15
  31
  53
  82
  118
  163
  216
  279
  353
  436
  531
  635
  751
  876
  1,011
  1,157
  1,311
  1,475
  1,648
  1,829
  2,019
  2,218
  2,425
  2,641
  2,866
  3,100
  3,342
  3,595
  3,857

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  441
  682
  1,019
  1,479
  2,087
  2,869
  3,851
  5,056
  6,506
  8,218
  10,205
  12,476
  15,038
  17,892
  21,038
  24,472
  28,190
  32,185
  36,451
  40,982
  45,771
  50,815
  56,108
  61,648
  67,435
  73,469
  79,754
  86,292
  93,090
  100,157
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  441
  682
  1,019
  1,479
  2,087
  2,869
  3,851
  5,056
  6,506
  8,218
  10,205
  12,476
  15,038
  17,892
  21,038
  24,472
  28,190
  32,185
  36,451
  40,982
  45,771
  50,815
  56,108
  61,648
  67,435
  73,469
  79,754
  86,292
  93,090
  100,157
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.272
  0.271
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
  0.272
Average production assets, $m
  390
  602
  900
  1,306
  1,842
  2,533
  3,400
  4,464
  5,744
  7,256
  9,010
  11,015
  13,277
  15,797
  18,575
  21,607
  24,889
  28,417
  32,183
  36,184
  40,412
  44,865
  49,538
  54,430
  59,539
  64,867
  70,415
  76,188
  82,191
  88,429
Working capital, $m
  -10
  -15
  -23
  -33
  -47
  -64
  -86
  -113
  -145
  -183
  -228
  -278
  -335
  -399
  -469
  -546
  -629
  -718
  -813
  -914
  -1,021
  -1,133
  -1,251
  -1,375
  -1,504
  -1,639
  -1,779
  -1,925
  -2,076
  -2,234
Total debt, $m
  342
  547
  834
  1,225
  1,741
  2,406
  3,241
  4,265
  5,498
  6,952
  8,641
  10,572
  12,750
  15,176
  17,850
  20,769
  23,929
  27,325
  30,951
  34,802
  38,873
  43,160
  47,659
  52,368
  57,287
  62,416
  67,758
  73,316
  79,094
  85,100
Total liabilities, $m
  375
  579
  866
  1,257
  1,774
  2,438
  3,273
  4,298
  5,530
  6,985
  8,674
  10,605
  12,782
  15,208
  17,882
  20,801
  23,961
  27,357
  30,984
  34,835
  38,906
  43,192
  47,691
  52,401
  57,320
  62,449
  67,791
  73,348
  79,127
  85,133
Total equity, $m
  66
  102
  153
  222
  313
  430
  578
  758
  976
  1,233
  1,531
  1,871
  2,256
  2,684
  3,156
  3,671
  4,228
  4,828
  5,468
  6,147
  6,866
  7,622
  8,416
  9,247
  10,115
  11,020
  11,963
  12,944
  13,964
  15,023
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  441
  681
  1,019
  1,479
  2,087
  2,868
  3,851
  5,056
  6,506
  8,218
  10,205
  12,476
  15,038
  17,892
  21,038
  24,472
  28,189
  32,185
  36,452
  40,982
  45,772
  50,814
  56,107
  61,648
  67,435
  73,469
  79,754
  86,292
  93,091
  100,156
Debt-to-equity ratio
  5.170
  5.350
  5.450
  5.520
  5.560
  5.590
  5.610
  5.620
  5.630
  5.640
  5.650
  5.650
  5.650
  5.650
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
  5.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150
  0.150

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  15
  31
  53
  82
  118
  163
  216
  279
  353
  436
  531
  635
  751
  876
  1,011
  1,157
  1,311
  1,475
  1,648
  1,829
  2,019
  2,218
  2,425
  2,641
  2,866
  3,100
  3,342
  3,595
  3,857
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  17
  26
  39
  57
  80
  110
  147
  193
  249
  314
  390
  477
  575
  684
  804
  935
  1,077
  1,230
  1,393
  1,566
  1,749
  1,942
  2,145
  2,356
  2,577
  2,808
  3,048
  3,298
  3,558
  3,828
Funds from operations, $m
  20
  41
  70
  110
  162
  228
  310
  409
  528
  667
  826
  1,008
  1,210
  1,435
  1,680
  1,947
  2,234
  2,541
  2,868
  3,214
  3,579
  3,961
  4,363
  4,782
  5,219
  5,674
  6,148
  6,641
  7,153
  7,685
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  -5
  -8
  -10
  -14
  -17
  -22
  -27
  -32
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -70
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -158
Cash from operations, $m
  24
  46
  78
  120
  175
  245
  332
  436
  560
  705
  871
  1,058
  1,267
  1,498
  1,750
  2,023
  2,317
  2,630
  2,963
  3,315
  3,685
  4,074
  4,481
  4,905
  5,348
  5,809
  6,288
  6,787
  7,304
  7,842
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -17
  -26
  -39
  -57
  -80
  -110
  -147
  -193
  -249
  -314
  -390
  -477
  -575
  -684
  -804
  -935
  -1,077
  -1,230
  -1,393
  -1,566
  -1,749
  -1,942
  -2,145
  -2,356
  -2,577
  -2,808
  -3,048
  -3,298
  -3,558
New CAPEX, $m
  -146
  -212
  -298
  -406
  -537
  -690
  -867
  -1,064
  -1,280
  -1,511
  -1,754
  -2,006
  -2,262
  -2,520
  -2,777
  -3,032
  -3,282
  -3,527
  -3,767
  -4,000
  -4,229
  -4,453
  -4,673
  -4,892
  -5,109
  -5,328
  -5,548
  -5,773
  -6,002
  -6,239
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -157
  -229
  -324
  -445
  -594
  -770
  -977
  -1,211
  -1,473
  -1,760
  -2,068
  -2,396
  -2,739
  -3,095
  -3,461
  -3,836
  -4,217
  -4,604
  -4,997
  -5,393
  -5,795
  -6,202
  -6,615
  -7,037
  -7,465
  -7,905
  -8,356
  -8,821
  -9,300
  -9,797
Free cash flow, $m
  -133
  -183
  -246
  -325
  -418
  -525
  -645
  -775
  -913
  -1,055
  -1,197
  -1,337
  -1,471
  -1,597
  -1,711
  -1,813
  -1,901
  -1,974
  -2,034
  -2,078
  -2,110
  -2,128
  -2,135
  -2,131
  -2,118
  -2,097
  -2,068
  -2,035
  -1,996
  -1,954
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  141
  204
  287
  391
  517
  665
  835
  1,025
  1,232
  1,455
  1,689
  1,931
  2,178
  2,426
  2,674
  2,919
  3,160
  3,396
  3,626
  3,851
  4,071
  4,287
  4,499
  4,709
  4,919
  5,129
  5,342
  5,558
  5,779
  6,006
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  22
  21
  19
  16
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  163
  225
  306
  407
  526
  665
  835
  1,025
  1,232
  1,455
  1,689
  1,931
  2,178
  2,426
  2,674
  2,919
  3,160
  3,396
  3,626
  3,851
  4,071
  4,287
  4,499
  4,709
  4,919
  5,129
  5,342
  5,558
  5,779
  6,006
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  29
  43
  60
  82
  108
  140
  190
  249
  319
  400
  491
  593
  706
  829
  963
  1,106
  1,259
  1,421
  1,593
  1,773
  1,961
  2,159
  2,364
  2,578
  2,801
  3,033
  3,273
  3,523
  3,782
  4,052
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -36
  -51
  -69
  -91
  -117
  -147
  -181
  -217
  -257
  -298
  -341
  -384
  -428
  -472
  -515
  -558
  -599
  -640
  -680
  -718
  -756
  -794
  -831
  -868
  -905
  -943
  -981
  -1,020
  -1,060
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  5
  7
  9
  13
  17
  22
  42
  69
  102
  143
  193
  253
  322
  401
  491
  591
  702
  822
  953
  1,093
  1,243
  1,402
  1,570
  1,747
  1,933
  2,128
  2,331
  2,542
  2,763
  2,992
Discount rate, %
  12.60
  13.23
  13.89
  14.59
  15.32
  16.08
  16.89
  17.73
  18.62
  19.55
  20.52
  21.55
  22.63
  23.76
  24.95
  26.19
  27.50
  28.88
  30.32
  31.84
  33.43
  35.10
  36.86
  38.70
  40.64
  42.67
  44.80
  47.04
  49.39
  51.86
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  14
  19
  22
  24
  25
  24
  23
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  57.0
  39.1
  30.8
  26.9
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4
  25.4

Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. is an international shipping company. The Company provides marine dry bulk transportation services through the ownership and operation of dry bulk vessels. It owns a modern fleet of eleven dry bulk carriers, consisting of nine Capesizes and two Supramaxes, with a combined cargo-carrying capacity of approximately 1,682,582 deadweight tonnages (dwt) and an average fleet age of about 8.1 years. Its fleet comprises vessels, including Leadership, Gloriuship, Geniuship, Premiership, Squireship, Championship, Gladiatorship and Guardianship. The Company's subsidiaries, which are all, owned by it either directly or indirectly, conduct all of its operations and own all of its operating assets. The Company manages its vessel's operations, insurances and bunkering, and has the general supervision of its third-party technical and commercial managers. V.Ships Limited, which is an independent third party, provides technical management for its vessels.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp (SHIP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.9
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 0.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 218.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 641.9%
Total Debt to Equity 677.4%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 83%
Return On Total Capital -11.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 106.8%
Return On Equity -92.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -114.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin -2.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7%
EBITDA Margin -22.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1490.9%
Operating Margin -40%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1332.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -71.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1282.3%
Net Profit Margin -71.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1282.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SHIP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SHIP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $75 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SHIP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.6%, whose default value for SHIP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SHIP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 56%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $31 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SHIP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.4% for Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SHIP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SHIP are equal to 324.6%.

Life of production assets of 23.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SHIP is equal to -8.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $41.313 million for Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.204 million for Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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