Intrinsic value of Steven Madden - SHOO

Previous Close

$47.70

  Intrinsic Value

$41.69

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-13%

Previous close

$47.70

 
Intrinsic value

$41.69

 
Up/down potential

-13%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SHOO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.36
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
Revenue, $m
  1,400
  1,513
  1,631
  1,754
  1,881
  2,013
  2,151
  2,294
  2,443
  2,597
  2,758
  2,926
  3,101
  3,283
  3,473
  3,672
  3,879
  4,095
  4,321
  4,557
  4,804
  5,062
  5,332
  5,615
  5,911
  6,222
  6,546
  6,887
  7,244
  7,618
  8,010
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,210
  1,303
  1,400
  1,500
  1,605
  1,713
  1,827
  1,944
  2,066
  2,194
  2,313
  2,451
  2,595
  2,745
  2,902
  3,065
  3,236
  3,415
  3,601
  3,796
  4,000
  4,214
  4,438
  4,672
  4,917
  5,174
  5,443
  5,725
  6,020
  6,330
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  116
  119
  122
  125
  128
  131
  134
  138
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  199
  204
  209
  215
  220
  226
  231
  237
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,230
  1,326
  1,422
  1,522
  1,625
  1,733
  1,844
  1,961
  2,082
  2,207
  2,339
  2,461
  2,603
  2,751
  2,905
  3,066
  3,233
  3,408
  3,591
  3,782
  3,981
  4,190
  4,409
  4,637
  4,876
  5,126
  5,389
  5,663
  5,951
  6,251
  6,567
Operating income, $m
  169
  188
  210
  233
  256
  281
  306
  333
  361
  390
  420
  465
  498
  533
  569
  606
  646
  687
  730
  775
  822
  872
  924
  978
  1,035
  1,095
  1,158
  1,224
  1,293
  1,366
  1,443
EBITDA, $m
  190
  215
  237
  261
  286
  312
  339
  367
  396
  426
  458
  491
  525
  561
  599
  638
  679
  722
  767
  814
  864
  915
  970
  1,027
  1,086
  1,149
  1,215
  1,284
  1,356
  1,432
  1,512
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
Earnings before tax, $m
  171
  188
  209
  231
  254
  278
  303
  329
  356
  384
  414
  458
  490
  523
  558
  595
  633
  673
  715
  759
  805
  853
  904
  957
  1,012
  1,070
  1,132
  1,196
  1,263
  1,334
  1,408
Tax expense, $m
  50
  51
  56
  62
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  112
  124
  132
  141
  151
  161
  171
  182
  193
  205
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  289
  306
  323
  341
  360
  380
Net income, $m
  121
  137
  153
  169
  186
  203
  221
  240
  260
  281
  302
  334
  358
  382
  408
  434
  462
  491
  522
  554
  588
  623
  660
  698
  739
  781
  826
  873
  922
  974
  1,028

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  166
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  961
  859
  926
  996
  1,068
  1,143
  1,221
  1,303
  1,387
  1,475
  1,566
  1,662
  1,761
  1,864
  1,972
  2,085
  2,202
  2,325
  2,454
  2,588
  2,728
  2,875
  3,028
  3,189
  3,357
  3,533
  3,717
  3,911
  4,113
  4,326
  4,548
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  795
  859
  926
  996
  1,068
  1,143
  1,221
  1,303
  1,387
  1,475
  1,566
  1,662
  1,761
  1,864
  1,972
  2,085
  2,202
  2,325
  2,454
  2,588
  2,728
  2,875
  3,028
  3,189
  3,357
  3,533
  3,717
  3,911
  4,113
  4,326
  4,548
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.762
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.762
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
  1.761
Average production assets, $m
  183
  198
  214
  230
  246
  264
  282
  301
  320
  340
  361
  383
  406
  430
  455
  481
  508
  536
  566
  597
  629
  663
  699
  736
  774
  815
  858
  902
  949
  998
  1,049
Working capital, $m
  346
  195
  210
  226
  243
  260
  277
  296
  315
  335
  356
  377
  400
  424
  448
  474
  500
  528
  557
  588
  620
  653
  688
  724
  763
  803
  844
  888
  934
  983
  1,033
Total debt, $m
  0
  18
  37
  56
  76
  97
  118
  141
  164
  189
  214
  240
  268
  296
  326
  358
  390
  424
  460
  497
  536
  576
  619
  663
  710
  759
  810
  863
  919
  978
  1,040
Total liabilities, $m
  220
  238
  257
  276
  296
  317
  338
  361
  384
  409
  434
  460
  488
  516
  546
  578
  610
  644
  680
  717
  756
  796
  839
  883
  930
  979
  1,030
  1,083
  1,139
  1,198
  1,260
Total equity, $m
  741
  621
  670
  720
  772
  827
  883
  942
  1,003
  1,066
  1,133
  1,201
  1,273
  1,348
  1,426
  1,507
  1,592
  1,681
  1,774
  1,871
  1,972
  2,078
  2,189
  2,305
  2,427
  2,554
  2,688
  2,828
  2,974
  3,127
  3,288
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  961
  859
  927
  996
  1,068
  1,144
  1,221
  1,303
  1,387
  1,475
  1,567
  1,661
  1,761
  1,864
  1,972
  2,085
  2,202
  2,325
  2,454
  2,588
  2,728
  2,874
  3,028
  3,188
  3,357
  3,533
  3,718
  3,911
  4,113
  4,325
  4,548
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.050
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.130
  0.150
  0.160
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723
  0.723

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  121
  137
  153
  169
  186
  203
  221
  240
  260
  281
  302
  334
  358
  382
  408
  434
  462
  491
  522
  554
  588
  623
  660
  698
  739
  781
  826
  873
  922
  974
  1,028
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  21
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
Funds from operations, $m
  148
  164
  180
  198
  215
  234
  253
  274
  295
  316
  339
  360
  384
  410
  438
  466
  496
  527
  559
  593
  629
  666
  706
  747
  790
  835
  882
  932
  985
  1,040
  1,097
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
Cash from operations, $m
  154
  149
  165
  182
  199
  217
  236
  255
  275
  297
  319
  338
  362
  387
  413
  440
  469
  499
  530
  563
  597
  633
  671
  710
  752
  795
  841
  888
  939
  991
  1,047
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -4
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
Free cash flow, $m
  150
  122
  137
  152
  167
  183
  200
  218
  236
  255
  275
  292
  314
  336
  360
  384
  410
  437
  465
  495
  525
  558
  592
  627
  664
  703
  744
  787
  833
  880
  930
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -75
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -95
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  140
  155
  171
  187
  204
  222
  240
  260
  280
  300
  318
  341
  365
  390
  416
  443
  471
  501
  532
  564
  598
  634
  672
  711
  752
  795
  841
  889
  939
  991
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -63
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -161
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  166
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  260
  107
  121
  135
  150
  165
  182
  198
  216
  234
  250
  269
  290
  312
  334
  358
  382
  408
  435
  463
  492
  523
  556
  589
  625
  662
  701
  742
  785
  830
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  249
  98
  105
  111
  116
  120
  123
  124
  124
  123
  119
  115
  110
  105
  98
  91
  83
  75
  67
  59
  51
  43
  36
  30
  24
  19
  15
  11
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Steven Madden, Ltd. and its subsidiaries design, source, market and sell name brand and private label footwear for women, men and children, and name brand and private label fashion handbags and accessories. The Company operates through five segments: Wholesale Footwear, Wholesale Accessories, Retail, First Cost and Licensing. Its products are sold through its retail stores and e-commerce Websites within the United States, Canada, Mexico and South Africa, as well as department stores, specialty stores, luxury retailers, value priced retailers, national chains, merchants and catalog retailers. It provides merchandising support to its department store customers, including in-store fixtures and signage, supervision of displays and merchandising of its various product lines. Its brands include Madden Girl, Steve Madden Men's, Madden, Steven, Stevies and Steve Madden Kids, Betsey Johnson, Superga, FREEBIRD by Steve, Report, Mad Love, Dolce Vita, Brian Atwood and Blondo.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Steven Madden (SHOO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.8
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 18.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 20.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -15.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 172
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Return On Total Capital 17.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Return On Equity 17.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.8%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
EBITDA Margin 13.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Operating Margin 12.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Net Profit Margin 8.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Effective Tax Rate 29.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

SHOO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SHOO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1400 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Steven Madden. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Steven Madden. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SHOO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SHOO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Steven Madden, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Steven Madden.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SHOO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 80%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $113 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SHOO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Steven Madden.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Steven Madden. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SHOO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SHOO are equal to 13.1%.

Life of production assets of 15.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Steven Madden operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SHOO is equal to 12.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $741 million for Steven Madden - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 59.315 million for Steven Madden is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Steven Madden at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Steven Madden Clears Key Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Jan-11-18 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ National Retail Federation cheers tax reform passage   [Dec-20-17 02:37PM  MarketWatch]
▶ IBD Rating Upgrades: Steven Madden Flashes Improved Technical Strength   [Dec-18-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Steven Madden meets 3Q profit forecasts   [07:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ Steven Madden Trying To Close In On Key Technical Measure   [Oct-25-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Yahoo Finance Live: Market Movers - Oct 11th, 2017   [Oct-11-17 07:20AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ The Market In 5 Minutes   [Aug-16-17 08:34AM  Benzinga]
▶ Steven Madden tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-01-17 09:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Steven Madden tops Street 2Q forecasts   [07:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Steven Madden Ltd. : July 25, 2017   [Jul-25-17 01:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Steven Madden Ltd. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 04:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Top Stocks with Big Potential Catch-Up Moves   [May-30-17 03:35PM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Steven Madden Ltd. : May 12, 2017   [May-12-17 04:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Steve Madden Stock Rising on First Quarter Earnings Beat   [Apr-21-17 02:45PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Steve Madden Climbs On Upbeat Q1 Earnings   [10:35AM  Barrons.com]
▶ Steven Madden beats Street 1Q forecasts   [07:07AM  Associated Press]
▶ Steven Madden meets 4Q profit forecasts   [07:15AM  Associated Press]
▶ Steve Madden Announces Acquisition of Schwartz & Benjamin   [Jan-30-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of SHOO
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