Intrinsic value of National Steel Company - SID

Previous Close

$3.86

  Intrinsic Value

$4.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+15%

Previous close

$3.86

 
Intrinsic value

$4.43

 
Up/down potential

+15%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SID stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  5,942
  6,303
  6,680
  7,072
  7,481
  7,908
  8,354
  8,820
  9,306
  9,815
  10,347
  10,903
  11,485
  12,095
  12,732
  13,401
  14,100
  14,834
  15,602
  16,407
  17,252
  18,137
  19,065
  20,039
  21,060
  22,131
  23,255
  24,434
  25,671
  26,969
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,044
  1,094
  1,146
  1,201
  1,258
  1,317
  1,379
  1,443
  1,511
  1,581
  1,436
  1,513
  1,594
  1,678
  1,767
  1,859
  1,956
  2,058
  2,165
  2,277
  2,394
  2,517
  2,645
  2,780
  2,922
  3,071
  3,227
  3,390
  3,562
  3,742
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  3,918
  4,005
  4,093
  4,183
  4,275
  4,369
  4,465
  4,563
  4,663
  4,766
  4,871
  4,978
  5,088
  5,200
  5,314
  5,431
  5,550
  5,672
  5,797
  5,925
  6,055
  6,188
  6,324
  6,464
  6,606
  6,751
  6,900
  7,051
  7,207
  7,365
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,962
  5,099
  5,239
  5,384
  5,533
  5,686
  5,844
  6,006
  6,174
  6,347
  6,307
  6,491
  6,682
  6,878
  7,081
  7,290
  7,506
  7,730
  7,962
  8,202
  8,449
  8,705
  8,969
  9,244
  9,528
  9,822
  10,127
  10,441
  10,769
  11,107
Operating income, $m
  980
  1,204
  1,441
  1,688
  1,949
  2,223
  2,511
  2,813
  3,132
  3,467
  4,040
  4,412
  4,804
  5,217
  5,652
  6,110
  6,594
  7,103
  7,640
  8,206
  8,803
  9,432
  10,095
  10,795
  11,532
  12,309
  13,128
  13,992
  14,902
  15,862
EBITDA, $m
  1,597
  1,847
  2,108
  2,382
  2,670
  2,973
  3,290
  3,624
  3,976
  4,345
  4,734
  5,143
  5,574
  6,028
  6,506
  7,009
  7,539
  8,098
  8,686
  9,306
  9,960
  10,648
  11,374
  12,138
  12,944
  13,793
  14,688
  15,630
  16,623
  17,670
Interest expense (income), $m
  964
  811
  876
  944
  1,015
  1,088
  1,165
  1,245
  1,329
  1,416
  1,507
  1,603
  1,702
  1,807
  1,916
  2,030
  2,150
  2,275
  2,406
  2,544
  2,688
  2,839
  2,997
  3,163
  3,337
  3,520
  3,712
  3,912
  4,123
  4,344
  4,576
Earnings before tax, $m
  168
  328
  497
  674
  861
  1,058
  1,266
  1,485
  1,716
  1,960
  2,438
  2,710
  2,997
  3,301
  3,622
  3,961
  4,319
  4,697
  5,096
  5,518
  5,964
  6,435
  6,932
  7,457
  8,012
  8,598
  9,216
  9,869
  10,558
  11,285
Tax expense, $m
  45
  89
  134
  182
  232
  286
  342
  401
  463
  529
  658
  732
  809
  891
  978
  1,069
  1,166
  1,268
  1,376
  1,490
  1,610
  1,737
  1,872
  2,013
  2,163
  2,321
  2,488
  2,665
  2,851
  3,047
Net income, $m
  123
  240
  363
  492
  628
  772
  924
  1,084
  1,253
  1,431
  1,780
  1,978
  2,188
  2,410
  2,644
  2,891
  3,153
  3,429
  3,720
  4,028
  4,354
  4,697
  5,060
  5,444
  5,849
  6,276
  6,728
  7,204
  7,707
  8,238

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  14,492
  15,374
  16,292
  17,249
  18,247
  19,289
  20,376
  21,512
  22,699
  23,939
  25,236
  26,593
  28,013
  29,499
  31,055
  32,684
  34,391
  36,179
  38,054
  40,018
  42,077
  44,236
  46,500
  48,875
  51,365
  53,978
  56,719
  59,594
  62,611
  65,777
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  14,492
  15,374
  16,292
  17,249
  18,247
  19,289
  20,376
  21,512
  22,699
  23,939
  25,236
  26,593
  28,013
  29,499
  31,055
  32,684
  34,391
  36,179
  38,054
  40,018
  42,077
  44,236
  46,500
  48,875
  51,365
  53,978
  56,719
  59,594
  62,611
  65,777
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
  0.410
Average production assets, $m
  7,011
  7,438
  7,882
  8,345
  8,828
  9,332
  9,858
  10,407
  10,982
  11,582
  12,209
  12,866
  13,553
  14,272
  15,024
  15,813
  16,638
  17,504
  18,410
  19,361
  20,357
  21,402
  22,497
  23,646
  24,851
  26,115
  27,441
  28,832
  30,291
  31,823
Working capital, $m
  1,153
  1,223
  1,296
  1,372
  1,451
  1,534
  1,621
  1,711
  1,805
  1,904
  2,007
  2,115
  2,228
  2,346
  2,470
  2,600
  2,735
  2,878
  3,027
  3,183
  3,347
  3,519
  3,699
  3,888
  4,086
  4,293
  4,511
  4,740
  4,980
  5,232
Total debt, $m
  9,628
  10,373
  11,149
  11,957
  12,801
  13,681
  14,600
  15,560
  16,562
  17,611
  18,707
  19,853
  21,053
  22,309
  23,623
  25,000
  26,443
  27,954
  29,537
  31,197
  32,937
  34,762
  36,675
  38,682
  40,786
  42,994
  45,310
  47,739
  50,289
  52,964
Total liabilities, $m
  12,246
  12,991
  13,766
  14,575
  15,419
  16,299
  17,218
  18,178
  19,180
  20,228
  21,325
  22,471
  23,671
  24,927
  26,241
  27,618
  29,060
  30,572
  32,155
  33,815
  35,555
  37,380
  39,293
  41,299
  43,404
  45,611
  47,927
  50,357
  52,907
  55,582
Total equity, $m
  2,246
  2,383
  2,525
  2,674
  2,828
  2,990
  3,158
  3,334
  3,518
  3,711
  3,912
  4,122
  4,342
  4,572
  4,813
  5,066
  5,331
  5,608
  5,898
  6,203
  6,522
  6,857
  7,208
  7,576
  7,962
  8,367
  8,791
  9,237
  9,705
  10,195
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  14,492
  15,374
  16,291
  17,249
  18,247
  19,289
  20,376
  21,512
  22,698
  23,939
  25,237
  26,593
  28,013
  29,499
  31,054
  32,684
  34,391
  36,180
  38,053
  40,018
  42,077
  44,237
  46,501
  48,875
  51,366
  53,978
  56,718
  59,594
  62,612
  65,777
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.290
  4.350
  4.410
  4.470
  4.530
  4.580
  4.620
  4.670
  4.710
  4.750
  4.780
  4.820
  4.850
  4.880
  4.910
  4.930
  4.960
  4.980
  5.010
  5.030
  5.050
  5.070
  5.090
  5.110
  5.120
  5.140
  5.150
  5.170
  5.180
  5.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155
  0.155

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  123
  240
  363
  492
  628
  772
  924
  1,084
  1,253
  1,431
  1,780
  1,978
  2,188
  2,410
  2,644
  2,891
  3,153
  3,429
  3,720
  4,028
  4,354
  4,697
  5,060
  5,444
  5,849
  6,276
  6,728
  7,204
  7,707
  8,238
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  618
  642
  667
  694
  721
  750
  780
  811
  844
  878
  694
  731
  770
  811
  854
  898
  945
  995
  1,046
  1,100
  1,157
  1,216
  1,278
  1,344
  1,412
  1,484
  1,559
  1,638
  1,721
  1,808
Funds from operations, $m
  741
  882
  1,030
  1,186
  1,350
  1,522
  1,704
  1,895
  2,096
  2,309
  2,473
  2,709
  2,958
  3,221
  3,498
  3,790
  4,098
  4,423
  4,766
  5,128
  5,510
  5,913
  6,339
  6,787
  7,261
  7,760
  8,287
  8,842
  9,428
  10,046
Change in working capital, $m
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
Cash from operations, $m
  674
  812
  957
  1,110
  1,270
  1,439
  1,617
  1,805
  2,002
  2,210
  2,370
  2,601
  2,845
  3,102
  3,374
  3,660
  3,962
  4,281
  4,617
  4,972
  5,347
  5,742
  6,159
  6,598
  7,063
  7,552
  8,069
  8,614
  9,188
  9,795
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -375
  -398
  -423
  -448
  -474
  -502
  -530
  -560
  -591
  -624
  -658
  -694
  -731
  -770
  -811
  -854
  -898
  -945
  -995
  -1,046
  -1,100
  -1,157
  -1,216
  -1,278
  -1,344
  -1,412
  -1,484
  -1,559
  -1,638
  -1,721
New CAPEX, $m
  -407
  -426
  -444
  -463
  -483
  -504
  -526
  -549
  -574
  -600
  -628
  -656
  -687
  -719
  -753
  -788
  -826
  -865
  -907
  -950
  -996
  -1,045
  -1,095
  -1,149
  -1,205
  -1,264
  -1,326
  -1,391
  -1,460
  -1,532
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -782
  -824
  -867
  -911
  -957
  -1,006
  -1,056
  -1,109
  -1,165
  -1,224
  -1,286
  -1,350
  -1,418
  -1,489
  -1,564
  -1,642
  -1,724
  -1,810
  -1,902
  -1,996
  -2,096
  -2,202
  -2,311
  -2,427
  -2,549
  -2,676
  -2,810
  -2,950
  -3,098
  -3,253
Free cash flow, $m
  -109
  -13
  90
  199
  313
  434
  561
  695
  836
  986
  1,084
  1,251
  1,427
  1,613
  1,810
  2,018
  2,238
  2,470
  2,716
  2,976
  3,250
  3,540
  3,847
  4,171
  4,514
  4,876
  5,259
  5,663
  6,091
  6,542
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  715
  745
  776
  809
  844
  880
  919
  960
  1,003
  1,048
  1,096
  1,147
  1,200
  1,256
  1,315
  1,377
  1,442
  1,511
  1,584
  1,660
  1,740
  1,824
  1,913
  2,006
  2,104
  2,208
  2,316
  2,430
  2,549
  2,675
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  716
  745
  776
  809
  844
  880
  919
  960
  1,003
  1,048
  1,096
  1,147
  1,200
  1,256
  1,315
  1,377
  1,442
  1,511
  1,584
  1,660
  1,740
  1,824
  1,913
  2,006
  2,104
  2,208
  2,316
  2,430
  2,549
  2,675
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  607
  732
  866
  1,007
  1,157
  1,314
  1,480
  1,655
  1,839
  2,034
  2,181
  2,398
  2,627
  2,869
  3,125
  3,395
  3,680
  3,981
  4,300
  4,636
  4,990
  5,365
  5,760
  6,178
  6,619
  7,084
  7,575
  8,093
  8,640
  9,217
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -124
  -137
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -184
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -277
  -290
  -304
  -319
  -335
  -351
  -368
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -491
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  484
  595
  724
  859
  1,002
  1,152
  1,311
  1,479
  1,655
  1,842
  1,979
  2,187
  2,407
  2,639
  2,884
  3,142
  3,416
  3,704
  4,009
  4,331
  4,671
  5,030
  5,409
  5,810
  6,233
  6,679
  7,150
  7,648
  8,172
  8,726
Discount rate, %
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.84
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.47
  21.50
  22.57
  23.70
  24.88
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
  30.25
  31.76
  33.35
  35.02
  36.77
  38.60
  40.53
  42.56
  44.69
  46.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  434
  475
  507
  523
  524
  510
  485
  450
  408
  361
  304
  258
  214
  173
  136
  105
  78
  57
  40
  27
  18
  12
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Companhia Siderurgica Nacional is a Brazil-based company engaged in the steel industry. The Company operates throughout the entire steel production chain, from the mining of iron ore to the production and sale of a range of steel products, including coated galvanized flat steel and tinplate. The Company operates in five segments: Steel, Mining, Cement, Logistics and Energy. The Steel segment focuses on the production, distribution and sale of flat steel, long steel, metallic containers and galvanized steel, with operations in Brazil, the United States, Portugal and Germany. The Mining segment encompasses the activities of iron ore and tin mining. The Cement segment is responsible for the cement production, distribution and sale operations. The Logistics segment manages port terminal for containers, as well as railway networks. The Energy segment includes generation of electric power. The Company is controlled by Vicunha Acos SA.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  National Steel Company (SID)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -17.7
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 60.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -8.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 457.2%
Total Debt to Equity 491.3%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Return On Total Capital -2.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Return On Equity -15.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.6%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.8%
EBITDA Margin 22.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Operating Margin 11.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Net Profit Margin -5.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.7%
Effective Tax Rate -46.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 61.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

SID stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SID stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5595 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by National Steel Company. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of National Steel Company. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SID stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.4%, whose default value for SID is calculated based on our internal credit rating of National Steel Company, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of National Steel Company.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SID stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 17.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $3834 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SID stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.1% for National Steel Company.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for National Steel Company. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SID stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SID are equal to 118%.

Life of production assets of 17.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in National Steel Company operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SID is equal to 19.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2122.43219571 million for National Steel Company - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 1380.247 million for National Steel Company is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of National Steel Company at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.3 billion.

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