Intrinsic value of Sientra, Inc. - SIEN

Previous Close

$6.47

  Intrinsic Value

$0.33

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$6.47

 
Intrinsic value

$0.33

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SIEN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  109
  168
  251
  365
  515
  707
  950
  1,247
  1,604
  2,027
  2,517
  3,077
  3,709
  4,412
  5,188
  6,035
  6,952
  7,937
  8,989
  10,107
  11,288
  12,532
  13,837
  15,203
  16,630
  18,119
  19,668
  21,281
  22,957
  24,700
Variable operating expenses, $m
  166
  255
  380
  551
  776
  1,065
  1,429
  1,875
  2,412
  3,046
  3,778
  4,619
  5,568
  6,625
  7,789
  9,061
  10,437
  11,917
  13,496
  15,174
  16,947
  18,814
  20,774
  22,825
  24,968
  27,202
  29,529
  31,950
  34,467
  37,083
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  54
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  69
  71
  73
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
Total operating expenses, $m
  211
  301
  427
  599
  825
  1,115
  1,480
  1,927
  2,466
  3,101
  3,834
  4,676
  5,626
  6,685
  7,850
  9,123
  10,501
  11,982
  13,563
  15,242
  17,016
  18,885
  20,847
  22,899
  25,044
  27,279
  29,608
  32,031
  34,550
  37,168
Operating income, $m
  -102
  -133
  -176
  -234
  -310
  -408
  -530
  -680
  -861
  -1,074
  -1,318
  -1,600
  -1,918
  -2,272
  -2,662
  -3,088
  -3,549
  -4,044
  -4,573
  -5,135
  -5,729
  -6,354
  -7,010
  -7,696
  -8,413
  -9,161
  -9,940
  -10,750
  -11,592
  -12,468
EBITDA, $m
  -97
  -126
  -166
  -221
  -293
  -386
  -502
  -644
  -815
  -1,016
  -1,250
  -1,517
  -1,818
  -2,153
  -2,522
  -2,925
  -3,362
  -3,830
  -4,331
  -4,863
  -5,424
  -6,016
  -6,637
  -7,286
  -7,965
  -8,673
  -9,410
  -10,176
  -10,973
  -11,802
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  4
  11
  20
  33
  51
  75
  106
  145
  193
  250
  317
  396
  486
  587
  699
  824
  959
  1,106
  1,264
  1,432
  1,611
  1,800
  1,999
  2,208
  2,427
  2,655
  2,893
  3,141
  3,399
  3,668
Earnings before tax, $m
  -106
  -144
  -196
  -267
  -361
  -483
  -637
  -826
  -1,054
  -1,324
  -1,635
  -1,996
  -2,403
  -2,859
  -3,361
  -3,912
  -4,508
  -5,150
  -5,837
  -6,567
  -7,339
  -8,154
  -9,009
  -9,904
  -10,840
  -11,816
  -12,833
  -13,891
  -14,992
  -16,136
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -106
  -144
  -196
  -267
  -361
  -483
  -637
  -826
  -1,054
  -1,324
  -1,635
  -1,996
  -2,403
  -2,859
  -3,361
  -3,912
  -4,508
  -5,150
  -5,837
  -6,567
  -7,339
  -8,154
  -9,009
  -9,904
  -10,840
  -11,816
  -12,833
  -13,891
  -14,992
  -16,136

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  222
  343
  513
  744
  1,050
  1,444
  1,938
  2,545
  3,274
  4,136
  5,136
  6,279
  7,568
  9,005
  10,588
  12,317
  14,188
  16,198
  18,346
  20,626
  23,036
  25,575
  28,239
  31,027
  33,940
  36,977
  40,139
  43,430
  46,852
  50,408
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  222
  343
  513
  744
  1,050
  1,444
  1,938
  2,545
  3,274
  4,136
  5,136
  6,279
  7,568
  9,005
  10,588
  12,317
  14,188
  16,198
  18,346
  20,626
  23,036
  25,575
  28,239
  31,027
  33,940
  36,977
  40,139
  43,430
  46,852
  50,408
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.491
  0.490
  0.489
  0.491
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
Average production assets, $m
  30
  46
  69
  100
  142
  195
  261
  343
  441
  557
  692
  846
  1,020
  1,213
  1,427
  1,660
  1,912
  2,183
  2,472
  2,779
  3,104
  3,446
  3,805
  4,181
  4,573
  4,983
  5,409
  5,852
  6,313
  6,792
Working capital, $m
  -13
  -20
  -30
  -43
  -61
  -83
  -112
  -147
  -189
  -239
  -297
  -363
  -438
  -521
  -612
  -712
  -820
  -937
  -1,061
  -1,193
  -1,332
  -1,479
  -1,633
  -1,794
  -1,962
  -2,138
  -2,321
  -2,511
  -2,709
  -2,915
Total debt, $m
  92
  174
  290
  448
  656
  925
  1,262
  1,676
  2,173
  2,761
  3,443
  4,222
  5,102
  6,082
  7,161
  8,340
  9,616
  10,988
  12,452
  14,007
  15,651
  17,382
  19,199
  21,101
  23,087
  25,158
  27,315
  29,559
  31,893
  34,318
Total liabilities, $m
  151
  234
  350
  508
  716
  985
  1,322
  1,736
  2,233
  2,821
  3,503
  4,282
  5,162
  6,141
  7,221
  8,400
  9,676
  11,047
  12,512
  14,067
  15,711
  17,442
  19,259
  21,160
  23,147
  25,218
  27,375
  29,619
  31,953
  34,378
Total equity, $m
  71
  109
  163
  237
  334
  459
  616
  809
  1,041
  1,315
  1,633
  1,997
  2,407
  2,864
  3,367
  3,917
  4,512
  5,151
  5,834
  6,559
  7,326
  8,133
  8,980
  9,867
  10,793
  11,759
  12,764
  13,811
  14,899
  16,030
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  222
  343
  513
  745
  1,050
  1,444
  1,938
  2,545
  3,274
  4,136
  5,136
  6,279
  7,569
  9,005
  10,588
  12,317
  14,188
  16,198
  18,346
  20,626
  23,037
  25,575
  28,239
  31,027
  33,940
  36,977
  40,139
  43,430
  46,852
  50,408
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.300
  1.600
  1.780
  1.890
  1.970
  2.010
  2.050
  2.070
  2.090
  2.100
  2.110
  2.110
  2.120
  2.120
  2.130
  2.130
  2.130
  2.130
  2.130
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
  2.140
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318
  0.318

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -106
  -144
  -196
  -267
  -361
  -483
  -637
  -826
  -1,054
  -1,324
  -1,635
  -1,996
  -2,403
  -2,859
  -3,361
  -3,912
  -4,508
  -5,150
  -5,837
  -6,567
  -7,339
  -8,154
  -9,009
  -9,904
  -10,840
  -11,816
  -12,833
  -13,891
  -14,992
  -16,136
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  6
  7
  10
  13
  17
  22
  29
  37
  46
  58
  68
  83
  100
  119
  140
  163
  187
  214
  242
  272
  304
  338
  373
  410
  448
  488
  530
  574
  619
  666
Funds from operations, $m
  -101
  -136
  -186
  -254
  -345
  -461
  -608
  -789
  -1,007
  -1,266
  -1,567
  -1,913
  -2,303
  -2,740
  -3,222
  -3,749
  -4,321
  -4,936
  -5,595
  -6,295
  -7,035
  -7,816
  -8,636
  -9,494
  -10,392
  -11,328
  -12,303
  -13,318
  -14,373
  -15,470
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -29
  -35
  -42
  -50
  -58
  -66
  -75
  -83
  -92
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -168
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
Cash from operations, $m
  -96
  -129
  -176
  -241
  -327
  -438
  -580
  -754
  -965
  -1,216
  -1,509
  -1,847
  -2,229
  -2,657
  -3,130
  -3,649
  -4,213
  -4,820
  -5,470
  -6,163
  -6,896
  -7,669
  -8,482
  -9,333
  -10,223
  -11,152
  -12,120
  -13,127
  -14,175
  -15,264
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -19
  -26
  -34
  -43
  -55
  -68
  -83
  -100
  -119
  -140
  -163
  -187
  -214
  -242
  -272
  -304
  -338
  -373
  -410
  -448
  -488
  -530
  -574
  -619
New CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -31
  -41
  -53
  -67
  -82
  -98
  -116
  -135
  -154
  -174
  -194
  -213
  -233
  -252
  -271
  -289
  -307
  -325
  -342
  -359
  -376
  -392
  -409
  -426
  -443
  -461
  -479
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -13
  -19
  -28
  -38
  -51
  -67
  -86
  -108
  -132
  -159
  -190
  -222
  -257
  -294
  -332
  -373
  -415
  -458
  -503
  -549
  -597
  -646
  -697
  -749
  -802
  -857
  -914
  -973
  -1,035
  -1,098
Free cash flow, $m
  -109
  -148
  -204
  -279
  -378
  -505
  -665
  -861
  -1,097
  -1,376
  -1,699
  -2,068
  -2,485
  -2,950
  -3,462
  -4,022
  -4,627
  -5,278
  -5,974
  -6,712
  -7,493
  -8,315
  -9,178
  -10,082
  -11,026
  -12,010
  -13,035
  -14,101
  -15,210
  -16,362
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  57
  83
  116
  158
  209
  268
  337
  414
  498
  588
  682
  780
  879
  980
  1,080
  1,179
  1,276
  1,371
  1,464
  1,555
  1,644
  1,731
  1,817
  1,902
  1,986
  2,071
  2,157
  2,244
  2,334
  2,425
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  133
  182
  250
  341
  459
  608
  794
  1,018
  1,286
  1,598
  1,953
  2,359
  2,813
  3,315
  3,865
  4,461
  5,103
  5,790
  6,520
  7,292
  8,106
  8,961
  9,856
  10,791
  11,766
  12,782
  13,839
  14,938
  16,080
  17,267
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  190
  265
  366
  499
  668
  876
  1,131
  1,432
  1,784
  2,186
  2,635
  3,139
  3,692
  4,295
  4,945
  5,640
  6,379
  7,161
  7,984
  8,847
  9,750
  10,692
  11,673
  12,693
  13,752
  14,853
  15,996
  17,182
  18,414
  19,692
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  81
  116
  162
  220
  289
  371
  466
  571
  686
  809
  936
  1,070
  1,207
  1,345
  1,482
  1,618
  1,752
  1,883
  2,010
  2,135
  2,257
  2,376
  2,494
  2,611
  2,727
  2,844
  2,961
  3,081
  3,204
  3,330
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -133
  -182
  -250
  -341
  -459
  -608
  -794
  -1,018
  -1,286
  -1,598
  -1,953
  -2,359
  -2,813
  -3,315
  -3,865
  -4,461
  -5,103
  -5,790
  -6,520
  -7,292
  -8,106
  -8,961
  -9,856
  -10,791
  -11,766
  -12,782
  -13,839
  -14,938
  -16,080
  -17,267
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -29
  -66
  -88
  -121
  -169
  -237
  -328
  -448
  -599
  -788
  -1,017
  -1,289
  -1,606
  -1,970
  -2,383
  -2,843
  -3,351
  -3,907
  -4,509
  -5,157
  -5,849
  -6,584
  -7,362
  -8,180
  -9,039
  -9,938
  -10,878
  -11,857
  -12,876
  -13,937
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -28
  -60
  -77
  -100
  -131
  -172
  -222
  -280
  -344
  -413
  -483
  -550
  -611
  -661
  -699
  -722
  -729
  -720
  -694
  -655
  -605
  -546
  -482
  -417
  -352
  -290
  -233
  -183
  -141
  -105
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  47.9
  24.8
  13.6
  7.7
  4.5
  2.7
  1.7
  1.1
  0.7
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Sientra, Inc. is a medical aesthetics company. The Company's primary products are silicone gel breast implants for use in breast augmentation and breast reconstruction procedures, which it offers in over 190 variations of shapes, sizes and textures. The Company sells its breast implants and breast tissue expanders, or breast products to plastic surgeons. Its breast implants are primarily used in elective procedures, which are generally performed on a cash-pay basis. TRUE Texture provides texturing on the implant shell that is designed to reduce the incidence of malposition, rotation and capsular contracture. The Company also offers breast tissue expanders and a range of other aesthetic and specialty products. The Company offers a range of HSC+ breast implants, including anatomically shaped textured, round textured and round smooth. The Company also offers miraDry system, the device to reduce underarm sweat, odor and permanently reduce hair of all colors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sientra, Inc. (SIEN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3
Price to Sales 5.7
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -44.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -31.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.1%
Return On Total Capital -39.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -27%
Return On Equity -39.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.2%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 66.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 70.4%
EBITDA Margin -185.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -99.1%
Operating Margin -190.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -102.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -190.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -103.9%
Net Profit Margin -190.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -103.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SIEN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SIEN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $68 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sientra, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Sientra, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SIEN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SIEN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sientra, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sientra, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SIEN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 154.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $44 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SIEN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.5% for Sientra, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sientra, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SIEN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SIEN are equal to 27.5%.

Life of production assets of 10.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sientra, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SIEN is equal to -11.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $66.878 million for Sientra, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.600 million for Sientra, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sientra, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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