Intrinsic value of Signet Jewelers - SIG

Previous Close

$60.91

  Intrinsic Value

$77.76

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+28%

Previous close

$60.91

 
Intrinsic value

$77.76

 
Up/down potential

+28%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SIG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  6,536
  6,686
  6,858
  7,051
  7,265
  7,500
  7,755
  8,031
  8,329
  8,649
  8,991
  9,356
  9,744
  10,157
  10,595
  11,060
  11,551
  12,071
  12,620
  13,200
  13,812
  14,457
  15,137
  15,854
  16,609
  17,403
  18,240
  19,120
  20,046
  21,020
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5,835
  5,967
  6,118
  6,287
  6,475
  6,681
  6,906
  7,148
  7,410
  7,691
  7,898
  8,218
  8,560
  8,922
  9,307
  9,715
  10,147
  10,603
  11,086
  11,595
  12,133
  12,699
  13,297
  13,926
  14,589
  15,287
  16,022
  16,795
  17,609
  18,464
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Total operating expenses, $m
  5,834
  5,966
  6,117
  6,286
  6,474
  6,680
  6,905
  7,147
  7,409
  7,690
  7,897
  8,217
  8,559
  8,921
  9,306
  9,714
  10,146
  10,602
  11,084
  11,593
  12,131
  12,697
  13,295
  13,924
  14,587
  15,285
  16,020
  16,793
  17,607
  18,462
Operating income, $m
  702
  721
  741
  765
  791
  820
  851
  884
  920
  959
  1,094
  1,139
  1,186
  1,236
  1,290
  1,346
  1,406
  1,469
  1,536
  1,607
  1,681
  1,759
  1,842
  1,929
  2,021
  2,118
  2,220
  2,327
  2,439
  2,558
EBITDA, $m
  970
  993
  1,018
  1,047
  1,078
  1,113
  1,151
  1,192
  1,236
  1,284
  1,335
  1,389
  1,446
  1,508
  1,573
  1,641
  1,714
  1,792
  1,873
  1,959
  2,050
  2,145
  2,246
  2,353
  2,465
  2,583
  2,707
  2,837
  2,975
  3,119
Interest expense (income), $m
  47
  76
  81
  86
  92
  99
  106
  114
  123
  133
  143
  154
  166
  178
  192
  206
  221
  237
  254
  272
  292
  312
  333
  355
  379
  404
  430
  457
  486
  517
  549
Earnings before tax, $m
  626
  640
  656
  673
  692
  714
  737
  761
  788
  817
  941
  973
  1,008
  1,045
  1,084
  1,125
  1,169
  1,215
  1,264
  1,315
  1,369
  1,427
  1,487
  1,551
  1,618
  1,688
  1,762
  1,840
  1,923
  2,009
Tax expense, $m
  169
  173
  177
  182
  187
  193
  199
  206
  213
  220
  254
  263
  272
  282
  293
  304
  316
  328
  341
  355
  370
  385
  402
  419
  437
  456
  476
  497
  519
  542
Net income, $m
  457
  467
  479
  491
  505
  521
  538
  556
  575
  596
  687
  710
  736
  762
  791
  821
  853
  887
  922
  960
  1,000
  1,041
  1,086
  1,132
  1,181
  1,232
  1,287
  1,344
  1,403
  1,467

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,731
  6,886
  7,063
  7,262
  7,482
  7,724
  7,987
  8,271
  8,578
  8,907
  9,259
  9,635
  10,035
  10,461
  10,912
  11,390
  11,896
  12,432
  12,997
  13,594
  14,225
  14,889
  15,590
  16,328
  17,105
  17,923
  18,785
  19,691
  20,645
  21,648
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,731
  6,886
  7,063
  7,262
  7,482
  7,724
  7,987
  8,271
  8,578
  8,907
  9,259
  9,635
  10,035
  10,461
  10,912
  11,390
  11,896
  12,432
  12,997
  13,594
  14,225
  14,889
  15,590
  16,328
  17,105
  17,923
  18,785
  19,691
  20,645
  21,648
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
  0.971
Average production assets, $m
  1,745
  1,785
  1,831
  1,883
  1,940
  2,002
  2,071
  2,144
  2,224
  2,309
  2,401
  2,498
  2,602
  2,712
  2,829
  2,953
  3,084
  3,223
  3,370
  3,524
  3,688
  3,860
  4,042
  4,233
  4,435
  4,647
  4,870
  5,105
  5,352
  5,612
Working capital, $m
  2,235
  2,287
  2,346
  2,412
  2,485
  2,565
  2,652
  2,747
  2,849
  2,958
  3,075
  3,200
  3,333
  3,474
  3,624
  3,782
  3,951
  4,128
  4,316
  4,514
  4,724
  4,944
  5,177
  5,422
  5,680
  5,952
  6,238
  6,539
  6,856
  7,189
Total debt, $m
  1,495
  1,591
  1,702
  1,825
  1,962
  2,113
  2,277
  2,454
  2,645
  2,850
  3,070
  3,304
  3,553
  3,818
  4,099
  4,397
  4,713
  5,046
  5,398
  5,770
  6,163
  6,577
  7,013
  7,473
  7,958
  8,467
  9,004
  9,569
  10,163
  10,788
Total liabilities, $m
  4,194
  4,290
  4,400
  4,524
  4,661
  4,812
  4,976
  5,153
  5,344
  5,549
  5,769
  6,003
  6,252
  6,517
  6,798
  7,096
  7,411
  7,745
  8,097
  8,469
  8,862
  9,276
  9,712
  10,172
  10,656
  11,166
  11,703
  12,268
  12,862
  13,487
Total equity, $m
  2,538
  2,596
  2,663
  2,738
  2,821
  2,912
  3,011
  3,118
  3,234
  3,358
  3,491
  3,633
  3,783
  3,944
  4,114
  4,294
  4,485
  4,687
  4,900
  5,125
  5,363
  5,613
  5,877
  6,155
  6,449
  6,757
  7,082
  7,424
  7,783
  8,161
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,732
  6,886
  7,063
  7,262
  7,482
  7,724
  7,987
  8,271
  8,578
  8,907
  9,260
  9,636
  10,035
  10,461
  10,912
  11,390
  11,896
  12,432
  12,997
  13,594
  14,225
  14,889
  15,589
  16,327
  17,105
  17,923
  18,785
  19,692
  20,645
  21,648
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.590
  0.610
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.730
  0.760
  0.790
  0.820
  0.850
  0.880
  0.910
  0.940
  0.970
  1.000
  1.020
  1.050
  1.080
  1.100
  1.130
  1.150
  1.170
  1.190
  1.210
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.310
  1.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377
  0.377

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  457
  467
  479
  491
  505
  521
  538
  556
  575
  596
  687
  710
  736
  762
  791
  821
  853
  887
  922
  960
  1,000
  1,041
  1,086
  1,132
  1,181
  1,232
  1,287
  1,344
  1,403
  1,467
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  268
  272
  277
  282
  287
  294
  301
  308
  316
  324
  240
  250
  260
  271
  283
  295
  308
  322
  337
  352
  369
  386
  404
  423
  443
  465
  487
  511
  535
  561
Funds from operations, $m
  725
  739
  755
  773
  793
  815
  838
  864
  891
  920
  927
  960
  996
  1,034
  1,074
  1,116
  1,161
  1,209
  1,259
  1,312
  1,368
  1,427
  1,490
  1,555
  1,624
  1,697
  1,774
  1,854
  1,939
  2,028
Change in working capital, $m
  44
  51
  59
  66
  73
  80
  87
  95
  102
  109
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
  221
  233
  245
  258
  272
  286
  301
  317
  333
Cash from operations, $m
  681
  688
  696
  707
  720
  734
  751
  769
  789
  811
  810
  835
  863
  892
  924
  958
  993
  1,031
  1,072
  1,114
  1,159
  1,207
  1,257
  1,310
  1,366
  1,425
  1,487
  1,553
  1,622
  1,695
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -171
  -175
  -179
  -183
  -188
  -194
  -200
  -207
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -322
  -337
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -404
  -423
  -443
  -465
  -487
  -511
  -535
New CAPEX, $m
  -31
  -40
  -46
  -52
  -57
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -80
  -85
  -91
  -97
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -182
  -191
  -202
  -212
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -260
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -202
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -245
  -257
  -268
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -322
  -337
  -354
  -370
  -388
  -407
  -426
  -447
  -469
  -492
  -515
  -541
  -568
  -595
  -625
  -655
  -688
  -722
  -758
  -795
Free cash flow, $m
  479
  473
  472
  473
  474
  478
  482
  488
  495
  503
  487
  498
  509
  522
  536
  551
  567
  584
  603
  622
  643
  666
  690
  715
  741
  770
  799
  831
  864
  899
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  86
  96
  110
  124
  137
  150
  164
  177
  191
  205
  219
  234
  249
  265
  281
  298
  315
  333
  352
  372
  393
  414
  436
  460
  484
  510
  537
  565
  594
  625
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  86
  96
  110
  124
  137
  150
  164
  177
  191
  205
  219
  234
  249
  265
  281
  298
  315
  333
  352
  372
  393
  414
  436
  460
  484
  510
  537
  565
  594
  625
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  565
  569
  582
  596
  612
  628
  646
  666
  686
  709
  707
  732
  759
  787
  817
  849
  882
  918
  955
  994
  1,036
  1,080
  1,126
  1,174
  1,226
  1,279
  1,336
  1,396
  1,458
  1,524
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -48
  -58
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -170
  -180
  -191
  -202
  -213
  -225
  -238
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -293
  -309
  -325
  -342
  -360
  -378
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
Cash available for distribution, $m
  517
  511
  516
  521
  529
  537
  547
  558
  571
  584
  574
  590
  608
  627
  647
  668
  691
  716
  742
  769
  798
  829
  862
  896
  933
  971
  1,011
  1,054
  1,099
  1,146
Discount rate, %
  4.70
  4.94
  5.18
  5.44
  5.71
  6.00
  6.30
  6.61
  6.94
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.77
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.09
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.71
  17.55
  18.42
  19.35
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  494
  464
  443
  422
  400
  379
  357
  334
  312
  289
  255
  233
  212
  191
  170
  150
  131
  114
  97
  82
  68
  55
  45
  35
  27
  21
  16
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Signet Jewelers Limited is a retailer of diamond jewelry. The Company's segments include the Sterling Jewelers division; the Zale division, which consists of the Zale Jewelry and Piercing Pagoda segments; the UK Jewelry division, and Other. The Sterling Jewelers division's stores operate in the United States principally as Kay Jewelers (Kay), Kay Jewelers Outlet, Jared The Galleria Of Jewelry (Jared) and Jared Vault. The Zale division operates jewelry stores (Zale Jewelry) and kiosks (Piercing Pagoda), located primarily in shopping malls across the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. Zale Jewelry includes the United States store brand, Zales, and the Canadian store brand, Peoples Jewellers. Piercing Pagoda operates through mall-based kiosks. The UK Jewelry division operates stores in the United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland and Channel Islands. The Other segment includes the operations of subsidiaries involved in the purchasing and conversion of rough diamonds to polished stones.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Signet Jewelers (SIG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.7
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 10.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -2.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 22.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 42.5%
Total Debt to Equity 45.4%
Interest Coverage 16
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Return On Total Capital 12.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Return On Equity 17.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
EBITDA Margin 14.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Operating Margin 11.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Net Profit Margin 8.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Effective Tax Rate 23.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Payout Ratio 14%

SIG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SIG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $6408 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Signet Jewelers. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Signet Jewelers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SIG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.7%, whose default value for SIG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Signet Jewelers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Signet Jewelers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SIG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $-1 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SIG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Signet Jewelers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Signet Jewelers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SIG stock is equal to 0.1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SIG are equal to 26.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Signet Jewelers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SIG is equal to 34.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2490 million for Signet Jewelers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 75 million for Signet Jewelers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Signet Jewelers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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