Intrinsic value of Grupo Simec ADR - SIM

Previous Close

$8.85

  Intrinsic Value

$471.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$8.85

 
Intrinsic value

$471.57

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SIM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
Revenue, $m
  1,604
  1,754
  1,912
  2,076
  2,246
  2,423
  2,608
  2,799
  2,998
  3,205
  3,420
  3,644
  3,876
  4,118
  4,371
  4,633
  4,907
  5,192
  5,490
  5,801
  6,126
  6,465
  6,819
  7,190
  7,577
  7,983
  8,407
  8,852
  9,317
  9,804
Variable operating expenses, $m
  1,400
  1,531
  1,667
  1,809
  1,956
  2,110
  2,269
  2,435
  2,607
  2,786
  2,960
  3,153
  3,355
  3,564
  3,782
  4,009
  4,246
  4,493
  4,751
  5,020
  5,301
  5,594
  5,901
  6,222
  6,557
  6,908
  7,276
  7,660
  8,063
  8,484
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,400
  1,531
  1,667
  1,809
  1,956
  2,110
  2,269
  2,435
  2,607
  2,786
  2,960
  3,153
  3,355
  3,564
  3,782
  4,009
  4,246
  4,493
  4,751
  5,020
  5,301
  5,594
  5,901
  6,222
  6,557
  6,908
  7,276
  7,660
  8,063
  8,484
Operating income, $m
  203
  224
  245
  267
  290
  314
  338
  364
  391
  419
  460
  490
  522
  554
  588
  624
  661
  699
  739
  781
  825
  870
  918
  968
  1,020
  1,075
  1,132
  1,192
  1,254
  1,320
EBITDA, $m
  292
  320
  348
  378
  409
  441
  475
  510
  546
  584
  623
  664
  706
  750
  796
  844
  894
  946
  1,000
  1,057
  1,116
  1,177
  1,242
  1,309
  1,380
  1,454
  1,531
  1,612
  1,697
  1,786
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  3
  6
  9
  12
  15
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  161
Earnings before tax, $m
  200
  218
  236
  255
  275
  295
  316
  338
  361
  385
  422
  448
  475
  503
  532
  562
  594
  627
  661
  697
  734
  773
  814
  857
  902
  949
  998
  1,049
  1,103
  1,159
Tax expense, $m
  54
  59
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  98
  104
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  231
  243
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
Net income, $m
  146
  159
  172
  186
  200
  215
  231
  247
  264
  281
  308
  327
  347
  367
  388
  410
  433
  458
  483
  509
  536
  565
  594
  626
  658
  692
  728
  766
  805
  846

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,324
  2,543
  2,771
  3,008
  3,255
  3,512
  3,779
  4,057
  4,345
  4,645
  4,957
  5,281
  5,618
  5,969
  6,334
  6,715
  7,111
  7,525
  7,957
  8,407
  8,878
  9,369
  9,883
  10,420
  10,982
  11,569
  12,184
  12,828
  13,503
  14,209
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,324
  2,543
  2,771
  3,008
  3,255
  3,512
  3,779
  4,057
  4,345
  4,645
  4,957
  5,281
  5,618
  5,969
  6,334
  6,715
  7,111
  7,525
  7,957
  8,407
  8,878
  9,369
  9,883
  10,420
  10,982
  11,569
  12,184
  12,828
  13,503
  14,209
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
  0.690
Average production assets, $m
  892
  975
  1,063
  1,154
  1,249
  1,347
  1,450
  1,556
  1,667
  1,782
  1,902
  2,026
  2,155
  2,290
  2,430
  2,576
  2,728
  2,887
  3,053
  3,225
  3,406
  3,594
  3,791
  3,997
  4,213
  4,438
  4,674
  4,921
  5,180
  5,451
Working capital, $m
  540
  591
  644
  700
  757
  817
  879
  943
  1,010
  1,080
  1,153
  1,228
  1,306
  1,388
  1,473
  1,561
  1,654
  1,750
  1,850
  1,955
  2,064
  2,179
  2,298
  2,423
  2,554
  2,690
  2,833
  2,983
  3,140
  3,304
Total debt, $m
  102
  156
  213
  272
  333
  397
  463
  532
  604
  678
  755
  836
  919
  1,006
  1,097
  1,191
  1,290
  1,392
  1,499
  1,611
  1,728
  1,849
  1,977
  2,110
  2,249
  2,395
  2,548
  2,707
  2,875
  3,050
Total liabilities, $m
  576
  631
  687
  746
  807
  871
  937
  1,006
  1,078
  1,152
  1,229
  1,310
  1,393
  1,480
  1,571
  1,665
  1,764
  1,866
  1,973
  2,085
  2,202
  2,324
  2,451
  2,584
  2,723
  2,869
  3,022
  3,181
  3,349
  3,524
Total equity, $m
  1,748
  1,912
  2,084
  2,262
  2,448
  2,641
  2,842
  3,051
  3,268
  3,493
  3,727
  3,971
  4,225
  4,489
  4,763
  5,049
  5,348
  5,659
  5,983
  6,322
  6,676
  7,046
  7,432
  7,836
  8,258
  8,700
  9,163
  9,647
  10,154
  10,685
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,324
  2,543
  2,771
  3,008
  3,255
  3,512
  3,779
  4,057
  4,346
  4,645
  4,956
  5,281
  5,618
  5,969
  6,334
  6,714
  7,112
  7,525
  7,956
  8,407
  8,878
  9,370
  9,883
  10,420
  10,981
  11,569
  12,185
  12,828
  13,503
  14,209
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752
  0.752

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  146
  159
  172
  186
  200
  215
  231
  247
  264
  281
  308
  327
  347
  367
  388
  410
  433
  458
  483
  509
  536
  565
  594
  626
  658
  692
  728
  766
  805
  846
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  89
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  136
  146
  155
  165
  163
  173
  184
  196
  208
  220
  233
  247
  261
  276
  291
  307
  324
  342
  360
  379
  400
  421
  443
  466
Funds from operations, $m
  235
  255
  276
  297
  320
  343
  367
  393
  419
  446
  471
  500
  531
  563
  596
  631
  667
  704
  743
  784
  827
  872
  919
  967
  1,018
  1,072
  1,128
  1,186
  1,248
  1,312
Change in working capital, $m
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
Cash from operations, $m
  186
  204
  223
  242
  262
  283
  305
  328
  352
  376
  398
  425
  453
  481
  511
  542
  574
  608
  643
  680
  718
  758
  799
  842
  888
  935
  985
  1,037
  1,091
  1,148
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -115
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -152
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -196
  -208
  -220
  -233
  -247
  -261
  -276
  -291
  -307
  -324
  -342
  -360
  -379
  -400
  -421
  -443
New CAPEX, $m
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -152
  -159
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -236
  -247
  -259
  -271
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -149
  -160
  -170
  -182
  -194
  -206
  -217
  -230
  -244
  -257
  -272
  -287
  -302
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -372
  -392
  -413
  -434
  -456
  -480
  -504
  -530
  -557
  -585
  -615
  -647
  -680
  -714
Free cash flow, $m
  37
  44
  52
  60
  69
  78
  88
  98
  108
  119
  127
  138
  150
  162
  175
  188
  202
  216
  231
  246
  262
  278
  295
  312
  331
  350
  369
  390
  411
  434
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  64
  59
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  84
  87
  91
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  101
  104
  108
  119
  130
  142
  154
  166
  180
  193
  204
  219
  234
  249
  266
  283
  300
  319
  338
  358
  378
  400
  422
  446
  470
  495
  522
  550
  579
  609
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -158
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -298
  -311
  -325
  -339
  -354
  -370
  -386
  -404
  -422
  -442
  -463
  -484
  -507
  -531
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  151
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  94
  -61
  -63
  -60
  -56
  -51
  -47
  -42
  -37
  -32
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -14
  -9
  -3
  2
  8
  13
  19
  25
  30
  36
  42
  48
  53
  59
  65
  72
  78
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  90
  -56
  -55
  -49
  -43
  -37
  -32
  -26
  -21
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -8
  -5
  -3
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  98.9
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5
  98.5

Grupo Simec, S.A.B. de C.V. is a manufacturer, processor and distributor of special bar quality (SBQ) steel and structural steel products. The Company operates through two segments Mexican and USA. The Mexican segment includes the plants in Mexicali, Guadalajara, Tlaxcala and San Luis Potosi. The USA segment includes approximately seven Republic Steel, Inc. (Republic) plants of which over six are located in the United States (distributed in the states of Ohio, Indiana and New York) and approximately one in Canada (Ontario). The Company produces a range of SBQ steel, long steel and medium-sized structural steel products. In its Mexican facilities, it produces I-beams, channels, structural and commercial angles, hot rolled bars, flat bars, rebars, cold finished bars and wire rods. In its United States facilities, the Company produces hot rolled bars, cold finished bars, semi-finished tube rounds and other semi-finished trade products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Grupo Simec ADR (SIM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 30.2
Price to Sales 3.2
Price to Book 2.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 259.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 375.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 135
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 9.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
EBITDA Margin 24.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Operating Margin 12.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Net Profit Margin 10.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Effective Tax Rate 17.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SIM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SIM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1459.09761057 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Grupo Simec ADR. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Grupo Simec ADR. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SIM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SIM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Grupo Simec ADR, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Grupo Simec ADR.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SIM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 87.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SIM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.6% for Grupo Simec ADR.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Grupo Simec ADR. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SIM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SIM are equal to 55.6%.

Life of production assets of 11.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Grupo Simec ADR operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SIM is equal to 33.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1740.28851042 million for Grupo Simec ADR - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 0.856 million for Grupo Simec ADR is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Grupo Simec ADR at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for October 22nd   [Oct-22-18 08:22AM  Zacks]
▶ Grupo Simec (SIM) Catches Eye: Stock Jumps 7.1%   [Jul-18-18 08:49AM  Zacks]
▶ SimCorp A/S Completion of Capital Reduction   [Jun-29-18 05:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SimCorp A/S - Major shareholder announcement   [07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Notice of extraordinary general meeting in SimCorp A/S   [May-09-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SimCorp A/S Announcement of Managers Transactions   [Mar-26-18 04:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SimCorp A/S Announcement of Managers Transactions   [Mar-13-18 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SimCorp A/S Announcement of Managers Transactions   [Mar-08-18 08:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SimCorp A/S Announcement of Managers Transactions   [Feb-22-18 03:41AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Retirement Systems of Alabama Now Live on SimCorp Dimension   [Feb-21-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Invitation to Presentation of SimCorps Annual Report 2017   [Feb-08-18 04:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Grupo Simec posts 2Q profit   [Jul-20-17 10:33PM  Associated Press]
▶ Business Confidence in Mexico Is Recovering   [May-26-17 01:35PM  Market Realist]
▶ John Mack Weighs in on Financial Technology   [Apr-20-17 07:38AM  Market Realist]
▶ Grupo Simec Files Amended 6-K   [Feb-27-17 04:34PM  PR Newswire]
▶ 5 Great Emerging Market Picks for 2017   [Jan-03-17 01:12PM  Zacks]

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