Intrinsic value of J.M. Smucker Company (The) - SJM

Previous Close

$118.34

  Intrinsic Value

$129.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+9%

Previous close

$118.34

 
Intrinsic value

$129.52

 
Up/down potential

+9%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SJM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 13.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.09
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
Revenue, $m
  7,776
  8,214
  8,671
  9,149
  9,649
  10,171
  10,717
  11,289
  11,888
  12,514
  13,171
  13,858
  14,578
  15,333
  16,124
  16,954
  17,824
  18,736
  19,692
  20,695
  21,748
  22,852
  24,010
  25,225
  26,501
  27,839
  29,244
  30,718
  32,265
  33,889
Variable operating expenses, $m
  6,620
  6,926
  7,246
  7,579
  7,929
  8,294
  8,675
  9,075
  9,493
  9,931
  9,204
  9,684
  10,187
  10,715
  11,268
  11,847
  12,455
  13,093
  13,761
  14,462
  15,197
  15,969
  16,778
  17,628
  18,519
  19,454
  20,436
  21,466
  22,547
  23,682
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  6,620
  6,926
  7,246
  7,579
  7,929
  8,294
  8,675
  9,075
  9,493
  9,931
  9,204
  9,684
  10,187
  10,715
  11,268
  11,847
  12,455
  13,093
  13,761
  14,462
  15,197
  15,969
  16,778
  17,628
  18,519
  19,454
  20,436
  21,466
  22,547
  23,682
Operating income, $m
  1,156
  1,288
  1,426
  1,570
  1,720
  1,878
  2,042
  2,214
  2,395
  2,583
  3,967
  4,174
  4,391
  4,618
  4,857
  5,106
  5,368
  5,643
  5,931
  6,233
  6,550
  6,883
  7,232
  7,598
  7,982
  8,385
  8,808
  9,252
  9,718
  10,207
EBITDA, $m
  2,613
  2,760
  2,914
  3,075
  3,243
  3,418
  3,602
  3,794
  3,995
  4,206
  4,426
  4,657
  4,899
  5,153
  5,419
  5,698
  5,990
  6,296
  6,618
  6,955
  7,308
  7,680
  8,069
  8,477
  8,906
  9,356
  9,828
  10,323
  10,843
  11,389
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  261
  283
  307
  332
  358
  385
  413
  443
  474
  507
  541
  576
  614
  653
  694
  737
  782
  829
  879
  931
  985
  1,042
  1,102
  1,165
  1,231
  1,301
  1,373
  1,450
  1,530
  1,614
Earnings before tax, $m
  895
  1,005
  1,119
  1,238
  1,362
  1,492
  1,629
  1,771
  1,920
  2,077
  3,426
  3,598
  3,777
  3,965
  4,163
  4,369
  4,586
  4,814
  5,052
  5,302
  5,565
  5,840
  6,129
  6,432
  6,750
  7,084
  7,435
  7,802
  8,188
  8,593
Tax expense, $m
  242
  271
  302
  334
  368
  403
  440
  478
  519
  561
  925
  971
  1,020
  1,071
  1,124
  1,180
  1,238
  1,300
  1,364
  1,432
  1,503
  1,577
  1,655
  1,737
  1,823
  1,913
  2,007
  2,107
  2,211
  2,320
Net income, $m
  654
  734
  817
  904
  994
  1,090
  1,189
  1,293
  1,402
  1,516
  2,501
  2,626
  2,757
  2,895
  3,039
  3,190
  3,348
  3,514
  3,688
  3,871
  4,062
  4,263
  4,474
  4,696
  4,928
  5,171
  5,427
  5,696
  5,977
  6,273

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  16,167
  17,077
  18,028
  19,021
  20,060
  21,146
  22,282
  23,470
  24,715
  26,017
  27,382
  28,811
  30,308
  31,878
  33,523
  35,247
  37,055
  38,951
  40,940
  43,025
  45,213
  47,509
  49,917
  52,444
  55,095
  57,877
  60,797
  63,862
  67,079
  70,455
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  16,167
  17,077
  18,028
  19,021
  20,060
  21,146
  22,282
  23,470
  24,715
  26,017
  27,382
  28,811
  30,308
  31,878
  33,523
  35,247
  37,055
  38,951
  40,940
  43,025
  45,213
  47,509
  49,917
  52,444
  55,095
  57,877
  60,797
  63,862
  67,079
  70,455
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
  0.481
Average production assets, $m
  8,134
  8,592
  9,070
  9,570
  10,093
  10,639
  11,210
  11,809
  12,435
  13,090
  13,776
  14,496
  15,249
  16,039
  16,866
  17,734
  18,643
  19,597
  20,598
  21,647
  22,748
  23,903
  25,114
  26,386
  27,720
  29,120
  30,589
  32,131
  33,749
  35,448
Working capital, $m
  498
  526
  555
  586
  618
  651
  686
  723
  761
  801
  843
  887
  933
  981
  1,032
  1,085
  1,141
  1,199
  1,260
  1,324
  1,392
  1,463
  1,537
  1,614
  1,696
  1,782
  1,872
  1,966
  2,065
  2,169
Total debt, $m
  5,247
  5,687
  6,147
  6,628
  7,131
  7,656
  8,206
  8,782
  9,384
  10,014
  10,675
  11,366
  12,091
  12,851
  13,647
  14,482
  15,357
  16,274
  17,237
  18,246
  19,305
  20,416
  21,582
  22,805
  24,088
  25,435
  26,848
  28,331
  29,888
  31,522
Total liabilities, $m
  7,825
  8,265
  8,726
  9,206
  9,709
  10,235
  10,784
  11,360
  11,962
  12,592
  13,253
  13,944
  14,669
  15,429
  16,225
  17,060
  17,935
  18,852
  19,815
  20,824
  21,883
  22,994
  24,160
  25,383
  26,666
  28,013
  29,426
  30,909
  32,466
  34,100
Total equity, $m
  8,342
  8,812
  9,302
  9,815
  10,351
  10,911
  11,497
  12,111
  12,753
  13,425
  14,129
  14,866
  15,639
  16,449
  17,298
  18,188
  19,120
  20,099
  21,125
  22,201
  23,330
  24,514
  25,757
  27,061
  28,429
  29,865
  31,372
  32,953
  34,613
  36,355
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  16,167
  17,077
  18,028
  19,021
  20,060
  21,146
  22,281
  23,471
  24,715
  26,017
  27,382
  28,810
  30,308
  31,878
  33,523
  35,248
  37,055
  38,951
  40,940
  43,025
  45,213
  47,508
  49,917
  52,444
  55,095
  57,878
  60,798
  63,862
  67,079
  70,455
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.630
  0.650
  0.660
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516
  0.516

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  654
  734
  817
  904
  994
  1,090
  1,189
  1,293
  1,402
  1,516
  2,501
  2,626
  2,757
  2,895
  3,039
  3,190
  3,348
  3,514
  3,688
  3,871
  4,062
  4,263
  4,474
  4,696
  4,928
  5,171
  5,427
  5,696
  5,977
  6,273
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,457
  1,472
  1,488
  1,505
  1,522
  1,541
  1,560
  1,580
  1,600
  1,622
  459
  483
  508
  535
  562
  591
  621
  653
  687
  722
  758
  797
  837
  880
  924
  971
  1,020
  1,071
  1,125
  1,182
Funds from operations, $m
  2,111
  2,206
  2,305
  2,409
  2,517
  2,630
  2,749
  2,872
  3,002
  3,138
  2,960
  3,109
  3,266
  3,429
  3,601
  3,781
  3,969
  4,167
  4,375
  4,592
  4,821
  5,060
  5,311
  5,575
  5,852
  6,142
  6,447
  6,767
  7,102
  7,455
Change in working capital, $m
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  104
Cash from operations, $m
  2,084
  2,178
  2,276
  2,378
  2,485
  2,597
  2,714
  2,836
  2,964
  3,098
  2,918
  3,065
  3,219
  3,381
  3,550
  3,728
  3,914
  4,109
  4,314
  4,528
  4,753
  4,990
  5,237
  5,497
  5,770
  6,056
  6,357
  6,672
  7,003
  7,351
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -256
  -271
  -286
  -302
  -319
  -336
  -355
  -374
  -394
  -414
  -436
  -459
  -483
  -508
  -535
  -562
  -591
  -621
  -653
  -687
  -722
  -758
  -797
  -837
  -880
  -924
  -971
  -1,020
  -1,071
  -1,125
New CAPEX, $m
  -439
  -458
  -478
  -500
  -522
  -546
  -572
  -598
  -626
  -655
  -686
  -719
  -753
  -790
  -828
  -868
  -910
  -954
  -1,000
  -1,049
  -1,101
  -1,155
  -1,212
  -1,271
  -1,334
  -1,400
  -1,469
  -1,542
  -1,618
  -1,699
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -695
  -729
  -764
  -802
  -841
  -882
  -927
  -972
  -1,020
  -1,069
  -1,122
  -1,178
  -1,236
  -1,298
  -1,363
  -1,430
  -1,501
  -1,575
  -1,653
  -1,736
  -1,823
  -1,913
  -2,009
  -2,108
  -2,214
  -2,324
  -2,440
  -2,562
  -2,689
  -2,824
Free cash flow, $m
  1,388
  1,449
  1,511
  1,576
  1,643
  1,714
  1,787
  1,864
  1,944
  2,028
  1,796
  1,887
  1,983
  2,083
  2,188
  2,298
  2,413
  2,534
  2,660
  2,792
  2,931
  3,076
  3,229
  3,389
  3,557
  3,733
  3,917
  4,111
  4,314
  4,527
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  415
  441
  460
  481
  503
  526
  550
  575
  602
  631
  660
  692
  725
  760
  796
  835
  875
  918
  962
  1,009
  1,059
  1,111
  1,166
  1,223
  1,283
  1,347
  1,413
  1,483
  1,557
  1,634
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  415
  441
  460
  481
  503
  526
  550
  575
  602
  631
  660
  692
  725
  760
  796
  835
  875
  918
  962
  1,009
  1,059
  1,111
  1,166
  1,223
  1,283
  1,347
  1,413
  1,483
  1,557
  1,634
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,803
  1,889
  1,971
  2,057
  2,146
  2,239
  2,337
  2,439
  2,547
  2,659
  2,456
  2,579
  2,708
  2,843
  2,984
  3,133
  3,288
  3,451
  3,622
  3,802
  3,990
  4,187
  4,394
  4,612
  4,840
  5,079
  5,330
  5,594
  5,871
  6,161
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -451
  -470
  -491
  -513
  -536
  -560
  -586
  -613
  -642
  -672
  -704
  -737
  -773
  -810
  -849
  -890
  -933
  -978
  -1,026
  -1,076
  -1,129
  -1,184
  -1,243
  -1,304
  -1,368
  -1,436
  -1,507
  -1,581
  -1,660
  -1,742
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1,352
  1,420
  1,481
  1,544
  1,610
  1,679
  1,751
  1,826
  1,905
  1,986
  1,752
  1,841
  1,935
  2,033
  2,135
  2,243
  2,355
  2,473
  2,596
  2,725
  2,861
  3,003
  3,152
  3,308
  3,472
  3,644
  3,824
  4,013
  4,211
  4,419
Discount rate, %
  6.20
  6.51
  6.84
  7.18
  7.54
  7.91
  8.31
  8.72
  9.16
  9.62
  10.10
  10.60
  11.13
  11.69
  12.28
  12.89
  13.53
  14.21
  14.92
  15.67
  16.45
  17.27
  18.14
  19.04
  20.00
  21.00
  22.05
  23.15
  24.30
  25.52
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1,273
  1,251
  1,214
  1,170
  1,120
  1,063
  1,002
  935
  865
  793
  608
  549
  491
  432
  376
  322
  272
  226
  185
  148
  117
  90
  68
  50
  36
  26
  18
  12
  8
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The J. M. Smucker Company is a manufacturer and marketer of branded food and beverage products and pet food and pet snacks in North America. The Company's segments include U.S. Retail Coffee, U.S. Retail Consumer Foods, U.S. Retail Pet Foods, and International and Foodservice. The Company's U.S. retail market segments consist of the sale of branded food products to consumers through retail outlets in North America. In the U.S. retail market segments, the Company's products are sold to food retailers, food wholesalers, drug stores, club stores, mass merchandisers, discount and dollar stores, military commissaries, natural foods stores and distributors, and pet specialty stores. In International and Foodservice, the Company's products are distributed domestically and in foreign countries through retail channels and foodservice distributors and operators, such as restaurants, lodging, schools and universities, healthcare operators.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.7
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -4.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 64.9%
Total Debt to Equity 78.8%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 8.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 38.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.1%
EBITDA Margin 17.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.5%
Operating Margin 13.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.1%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Net Profit Margin 8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Effective Tax Rate 32.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.1%
Payout Ratio 57.3%

SJM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SJM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $7357 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by J.M. Smucker Company (The). The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of J.M. Smucker Company (The). You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SJM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.2%, whose default value for SJM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of J.M. Smucker Company (The), is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of J.M. Smucker Company (The).
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SJM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SJM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for J.M. Smucker Company (The).

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for J.M. Smucker Company (The). In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SJM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SJM are equal to 104.6%.

Life of production assets of 33.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in J.M. Smucker Company (The) operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SJM is equal to 6.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $7891.1 million for J.M. Smucker Company (The) - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 113.753 million for J.M. Smucker Company (The) is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of J.M. Smucker Company (The) at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $13.5 billion.

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