Intrinsic value of Skywest - SKYW

Previous Close

$60.60

  Intrinsic Value

$8.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-86%

Previous close

$60.60

 
Intrinsic value

$8.43

 
Up/down potential

-86%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SKYW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.70
  2.93
  3.14
  3.32
  3.49
  3.64
  3.78
  3.90
  4.01
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.47
  4.53
  4.57
  4.62
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.83
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  3,291
  3,387
  3,493
  3,609
  3,735
  3,871
  4,018
  4,174
  4,342
  4,520
  4,710
  4,911
  5,125
  5,351
  5,591
  5,844
  6,111
  6,393
  6,691
  7,004
  7,335
  7,683
  8,050
  8,436
  8,842
  9,270
  9,720
  10,193
  10,690
  11,213
Variable operating expenses, $m
  3,471
  3,573
  3,685
  3,808
  3,941
  4,084
  4,238
  4,404
  4,580
  4,769
  4,969
  5,181
  5,407
  5,645
  5,898
  6,165
  6,447
  6,745
  7,059
  7,390
  7,738
  8,106
  8,493
  8,900
  9,329
  9,780
  10,254
  10,753
  11,278
  11,830
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,471
  3,573
  3,685
  3,808
  3,941
  4,084
  4,238
  4,404
  4,580
  4,769
  4,969
  5,181
  5,407
  5,645
  5,898
  6,165
  6,447
  6,745
  7,059
  7,390
  7,738
  8,106
  8,493
  8,900
  9,329
  9,780
  10,254
  10,753
  11,278
  11,830
Operating income, $m
  -181
  -186
  -192
  -199
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -239
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -282
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -368
  -385
  -403
  -423
  -443
  -464
  -486
  -510
  -535
  -561
  -588
  -617
EBITDA, $m
  230
  237
  244
  252
  261
  271
  281
  292
  303
  316
  329
  343
  358
  374
  391
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  563
  590
  618
  648
  679
  712
  747
  784
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  145
  151
  157
  163
  171
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  227
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  310
  327
  344
  363
  383
  403
  425
  448
  472
  497
  524
  552
  582
  613
Earnings before tax, $m
  -326
  -337
  -349
  -362
  -376
  -391
  -408
  -426
  -445
  -465
  -486
  -509
  -534
  -560
  -587
  -616
  -646
  -678
  -712
  -748
  -786
  -826
  -868
  -912
  -958
  -1,007
  -1,059
  -1,113
  -1,170
  -1,230
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -326
  -337
  -349
  -362
  -376
  -391
  -408
  -426
  -445
  -465
  -486
  -509
  -534
  -560
  -587
  -616
  -646
  -678
  -712
  -748
  -786
  -826
  -868
  -912
  -958
  -1,007
  -1,059
  -1,113
  -1,170
  -1,230

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,606
  5,770
  5,951
  6,149
  6,363
  6,595
  6,844
  7,111
  7,396
  7,700
  8,023
  8,367
  8,731
  9,116
  9,524
  9,955
  10,410
  10,891
  11,398
  11,932
  12,496
  13,089
  13,714
  14,372
  15,064
  15,792
  16,558
  17,364
  18,211
  19,102
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,606
  5,770
  5,951
  6,149
  6,363
  6,595
  6,844
  7,111
  7,396
  7,700
  8,023
  8,367
  8,731
  9,116
  9,524
  9,955
  10,410
  10,891
  11,398
  11,932
  12,496
  13,089
  13,714
  14,372
  15,064
  15,792
  16,558
  17,364
  18,211
  19,102
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
  0.587
Average production assets, $m
  4,110
  4,230
  4,363
  4,508
  4,665
  4,835
  5,018
  5,214
  5,423
  5,645
  5,882
  6,134
  6,401
  6,684
  6,983
  7,299
  7,633
  7,985
  8,357
  8,748
  9,161
  9,596
  10,054
  10,537
  11,044
  11,578
  12,140
  12,731
  13,352
  14,005
Working capital, $m
  -174
  -180
  -185
  -191
  -198
  -205
  -213
  -221
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -272
  -284
  -296
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -355
  -371
  -389
  -407
  -427
  -447
  -469
  -491
  -515
  -540
  -567
  -594
Total debt, $m
  2,789
  2,900
  3,023
  3,158
  3,303
  3,461
  3,630
  3,811
  4,005
  4,211
  4,431
  4,664
  4,911
  5,173
  5,450
  5,742
  6,051
  6,378
  6,722
  7,085
  7,467
  7,870
  8,294
  8,741
  9,211
  9,706
  10,226
  10,773
  11,348
  11,953
Total liabilities, $m
  3,806
  3,918
  4,041
  4,175
  4,321
  4,478
  4,647
  4,828
  5,022
  5,228
  5,448
  5,681
  5,928
  6,190
  6,467
  6,760
  7,069
  7,395
  7,739
  8,102
  8,485
  8,887
  9,312
  9,758
  10,228
  10,723
  11,243
  11,790
  12,365
  12,970
Total equity, $m
  1,799
  1,852
  1,910
  1,974
  2,043
  2,117
  2,197
  2,283
  2,374
  2,472
  2,576
  2,686
  2,803
  2,926
  3,057
  3,196
  3,342
  3,496
  3,659
  3,830
  4,011
  4,202
  4,402
  4,613
  4,835
  5,069
  5,315
  5,574
  5,846
  6,132
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,605
  5,770
  5,951
  6,149
  6,364
  6,595
  6,844
  7,111
  7,396
  7,700
  8,024
  8,367
  8,731
  9,116
  9,524
  9,956
  10,411
  10,891
  11,398
  11,932
  12,496
  13,089
  13,714
  14,371
  15,063
  15,792
  16,558
  17,364
  18,211
  19,102
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.550
  1.570
  1.580
  1.600
  1.620
  1.630
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.700
  1.720
  1.740
  1.750
  1.770
  1.780
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
  1.870
  1.880
  1.890
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.950
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321
  0.321

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -326
  -337
  -349
  -362
  -376
  -391
  -408
  -426
  -445
  -465
  -486
  -509
  -534
  -560
  -587
  -616
  -646
  -678
  -712
  -748
  -786
  -826
  -868
  -912
  -958
  -1,007
  -1,059
  -1,113
  -1,170
  -1,230
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  411
  423
  436
  451
  467
  484
  502
  521
  542
  565
  588
  613
  640
  668
  698
  730
  763
  798
  836
  875
  916
  960
  1,005
  1,054
  1,104
  1,158
  1,214
  1,273
  1,335
  1,400
Funds from operations, $m
  85
  86
  88
  89
  91
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  106
  109
  111
  114
  117
  120
  123
  127
  130
  134
  138
  142
  146
  151
  155
  160
  165
  171
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
Cash from operations, $m
  89
  91
  93
  95
  97
  99
  102
  104
  107
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  124
  128
  131
  135
  139
  143
  148
  152
  157
  162
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -400
  -411
  -423
  -436
  -451
  -467
  -484
  -502
  -521
  -542
  -565
  -588
  -613
  -640
  -668
  -698
  -730
  -763
  -798
  -836
  -875
  -916
  -960
  -1,005
  -1,054
  -1,104
  -1,158
  -1,214
  -1,273
  -1,335
New CAPEX, $m
  -107
  -120
  -133
  -145
  -157
  -170
  -183
  -196
  -209
  -223
  -237
  -252
  -267
  -283
  -299
  -316
  -334
  -352
  -372
  -392
  -413
  -435
  -458
  -482
  -508
  -534
  -562
  -591
  -621
  -653
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -507
  -531
  -556
  -581
  -608
  -637
  -667
  -698
  -730
  -765
  -802
  -840
  -880
  -923
  -967
  -1,014
  -1,064
  -1,115
  -1,170
  -1,228
  -1,288
  -1,351
  -1,418
  -1,487
  -1,562
  -1,638
  -1,720
  -1,805
  -1,894
  -1,988
Free cash flow, $m
  -418
  -440
  -463
  -486
  -511
  -537
  -564
  -593
  -624
  -656
  -690
  -725
  -763
  -802
  -843
  -887
  -932
  -981
  -1,031
  -1,084
  -1,140
  -1,199
  -1,261
  -1,325
  -1,394
  -1,465
  -1,540
  -1,619
  -1,702
  -1,790
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  102
  112
  123
  134
  146
  157
  169
  181
  194
  206
  219
  233
  247
  262
  277
  293
  309
  326
  344
  363
  382
  403
  424
  447
  470
  495
  520
  547
  575
  605
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  371
  390
  407
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  536
  562
  590
  620
  651
  683
  718
  754
  792
  833
  875
  920
  967
  1,016
  1,068
  1,123
  1,181
  1,241
  1,305
  1,371
  1,442
  1,515
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  473
  502
  530
  559
  591
  623
  657
  692
  730
  768
  809
  853
  898
  945
  995
  1,047
  1,101
  1,159
  1,219
  1,283
  1,349
  1,419
  1,492
  1,570
  1,651
  1,736
  1,825
  1,918
  2,017
  2,120
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  86
  92
  99
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  315
  331
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -371
  -390
  -407
  -425
  -445
  -466
  -488
  -511
  -536
  -562
  -590
  -620
  -651
  -683
  -718
  -754
  -792
  -833
  -875
  -920
  -967
  -1,016
  -1,068
  -1,123
  -1,181
  -1,241
  -1,305
  -1,371
  -1,442
  -1,515
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -316
  -329
  -340
  -352
  -365
  -380
  -395
  -412
  -430
  -450
  -470
  -492
  -515
  -540
  -566
  -594
  -623
  -654
  -687
  -721
  -758
  -796
  -836
  -879
  -924
  -971
  -1,020
  -1,072
  -1,127
  -1,185
Discount rate, %
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -298
  -290
  -279
  -268
  -255
  -242
  -228
  -213
  -198
  -182
  -166
  -150
  -133
  -118
  -102
  -88
  -74
  -62
  -51
  -41
  -32
  -25
  -19
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  89.5
  79.8
  71.1
  63.3
  56.2
  49.9
  44.2
  39.2
  34.6
  30.6
  27.0
  23.8
  21.0
  18.5
  16.3
  14.3
  12.6
  11.0
  9.7
  8.5
  7.4
  6.5
  5.7
  5.0
  4.4
  3.8
  3.4
  2.9
  2.6
  2.2

SkyWest, Inc., through its subsidiaries, SkyWest Airlines, Inc. (SkyWest Airlines) and ExpressJet Airlines, Inc. (ExpressJet), operates regional airline operations in the United States. The Company's segments include SkyWest Airlines, ExpressJet and SkyWest Leasing. The SkyWest Airlines segment provides regional jet service to airports primarily located in the Midwestern and Western United States, as well as Mexico and Canada. The ExpressJet segment provides regional jet service to airports primarily located in the Eastern and Midwestern United States, as well as Mexico, Canada and the Caribbean. The SkyWest Leasing segment includes its E175 aircraft ownership business. As of December 31, 2016, the Company offered scheduled passenger service with approximately 3,160 daily departures to destinations in the United States, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean. The Company's flights are operated as Delta Connection, United Express, American Eagle or Alaska Airlines.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Skywest (SKYW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -19.4
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 60.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 50%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 165.9%
Total Debt to Equity 188.5%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Total Capital -4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Equity -11.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Operating Margin -5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Net Profit Margin -5.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 34.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Payout Ratio -5.6%

SKYW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SKYW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3204 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Skywest. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Skywest. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SKYW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for SKYW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Skywest, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Skywest.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SKYW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 105.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SKYW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Skywest.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Skywest. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SKYW stock is equal to 0.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SKYW are equal to 124.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Skywest operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SKYW is equal to -5.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1754 million for Skywest - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52 million for Skywest is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Skywest at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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