Intrinsic value of Skywest - SKYW

Previous Close

$54.20

  Intrinsic Value

$17.60

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-68%

Previous close

$54.20

 
Intrinsic value

$17.60

 
Up/down potential

-68%

 
Rating

str. sell

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SKYW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.81
  4.00
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
Revenue, $m
  3,121
  3,246
  3,379
  3,520
  3,671
  3,830
  3,999
  4,178
  4,367
  4,566
  4,777
  4,999
  5,233
  5,480
  5,740
  6,014
  6,303
  6,606
  6,925
  7,261
  7,615
  7,986
  8,377
  8,787
  9,219
  9,672
  10,149
  10,650
  11,176
  11,729
  12,310
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,999
  3,122
  3,253
  3,392
  3,539
  3,695
  3,860
  4,035
  4,219
  4,414
  4,619
  4,836
  5,064
  5,304
  5,557
  5,824
  6,104
  6,399
  6,709
  7,036
  7,379
  7,740
  8,119
  8,518
  8,937
  9,378
  9,840
  10,327
  10,838
  11,375
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  3,294
  2,999
  3,122
  3,253
  3,392
  3,539
  3,695
  3,860
  4,035
  4,219
  4,414
  4,619
  4,836
  5,064
  5,304
  5,557
  5,824
  6,104
  6,399
  6,709
  7,036
  7,379
  7,740
  8,119
  8,518
  8,937
  9,378
  9,840
  10,327
  10,838
  11,375
Operating income, $m
  -173
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  318
  332
  347
  363
  380
  398
  417
  436
  457
  479
  502
  526
  552
  579
  607
  637
  668
  701
  735
  771
  809
  849
  891
  936
EBITDA, $m
  112
  544
  566
  590
  615
  642
  670
  700
  731
  765
  800
  837
  877
  918
  961
  1,007
  1,056
  1,106
  1,160
  1,216
  1,275
  1,338
  1,403
  1,472
  1,544
  1,620
  1,700
  1,784
  1,872
  1,964
  2,062
Interest expense (income), $m
  77
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  247
  261
  276
  291
  308
  325
  343
  362
  381
  402
Earnings before tax, $m
  -249
  168
  174
  179
  186
  192
  199
  206
  214
  222
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  280
  292
  304
  317
  330
  345
  360
  375
  392
  409
  427
  447
  467
  488
  510
  533
Tax expense, $m
  -87
  45
  47
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
Net income, $m
  -162
  123
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  196
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  262
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  341
  356
  372
  389

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  557
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,008
  4,630
  4,820
  5,022
  5,237
  5,464
  5,705
  5,960
  6,229
  6,514
  6,815
  7,132
  7,466
  7,818
  8,189
  8,580
  8,991
  9,424
  9,879
  10,358
  10,862
  11,392
  11,949
  12,535
  13,151
  13,798
  14,478
  15,192
  15,943
  16,732
  17,561
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,451
  4,630
  4,820
  5,022
  5,237
  5,464
  5,705
  5,960
  6,229
  6,514
  6,815
  7,132
  7,466
  7,818
  8,189
  8,580
  8,991
  9,424
  9,879
  10,358
  10,862
  11,392
  11,949
  12,535
  13,151
  13,798
  14,478
  15,192
  15,943
  16,732
  17,561
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
  0.701
Average production assets, $m
  3,656
  3,801
  3,957
  4,123
  4,299
  4,485
  4,683
  4,892
  5,114
  5,347
  5,594
  5,854
  6,128
  6,418
  6,722
  7,043
  7,380
  7,736
  8,110
  8,503
  8,917
  9,352
  9,809
  10,290
  10,795
  11,326
  11,884
  12,471
  13,087
  13,735
  14,415
Working capital, $m
  171
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -240
  -251
  -264
  -277
  -291
  -305
  -320
Total debt, $m
  2,546
  2,376
  2,519
  2,671
  2,832
  3,003
  3,185
  3,377
  3,580
  3,794
  4,020
  4,259
  4,511
  4,776
  5,055
  5,349
  5,659
  5,985
  6,328
  6,689
  7,068
  7,467
  7,887
  8,328
  8,792
  9,279
  9,791
  10,329
  10,894
  11,488
  12,112
Total liabilities, $m
  3,657
  3,487
  3,630
  3,782
  3,943
  4,114
  4,296
  4,488
  4,691
  4,905
  5,131
  5,370
  5,622
  5,887
  6,166
  6,460
  6,770
  7,096
  7,439
  7,800
  8,179
  8,578
  8,998
  9,439
  9,903
  10,390
  10,902
  11,440
  12,005
  12,599
  13,223
Total equity, $m
  1,351
  1,144
  1,191
  1,240
  1,293
  1,350
  1,409
  1,472
  1,539
  1,609
  1,683
  1,761
  1,844
  1,931
  2,023
  2,119
  2,221
  2,328
  2,440
  2,559
  2,683
  2,814
  2,952
  3,096
  3,248
  3,408
  3,576
  3,753
  3,938
  4,133
  4,338
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,008
  4,631
  4,821
  5,022
  5,236
  5,464
  5,705
  5,960
  6,230
  6,514
  6,814
  7,131
  7,466
  7,818
  8,189
  8,579
  8,991
  9,424
  9,879
  10,359
  10,862
  11,392
  11,950
  12,535
  13,151
  13,798
  14,478
  15,193
  15,943
  16,732
  17,561
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.885
  2.080
  2.120
  2.150
  2.190
  2.230
  2.260
  2.290
  2.330
  2.360
  2.390
  2.420
  2.450
  2.470
  2.500
  2.520
  2.550
  2.570
  2.590
  2.610
  2.630
  2.650
  2.670
  2.690
  2.710
  2.720
  2.740
  2.750
  2.770
  2.780
  2.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.178
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247
  0.247

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -162
  123
  127
  131
  135
  140
  145
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  196
  205
  213
  222
  231
  241
  252
  262
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  341
  356
  372
  389
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  285
  297
  309
  322
  336
  350
  366
  382
  399
  418
  437
  457
  479
  501
  525
  550
  577
  604
  634
  664
  697
  731
  766
  804
  843
  885
  928
  974
  1,022
  1,073
  1,126
Funds from operations, $m
  502
  420
  436
  453
  471
  491
  511
  533
  555
  580
  605
  632
  660
  690
  722
  755
  790
  826
  865
  905
  948
  993
  1,040
  1,090
  1,142
  1,197
  1,254
  1,315
  1,379
  1,445
  1,516
Change in working capital, $m
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
Cash from operations, $m
  507
  423
  439
  457
  475
  495
  515
  537
  560
  585
  611
  638
  666
  697
  728
  762
  797
  834
  873
  914
  957
  1,003
  1,050
  1,101
  1,153
  1,209
  1,267
  1,328
  1,392
  1,460
  1,531
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -286
  -297
  -309
  -322
  -336
  -350
  -366
  -382
  -399
  -418
  -437
  -457
  -479
  -501
  -525
  -550
  -577
  -604
  -634
  -664
  -697
  -731
  -766
  -804
  -843
  -885
  -928
  -974
  -1,022
  -1,073
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,154
  -145
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -234
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -289
  -305
  -321
  -338
  -355
  -374
  -393
  -414
  -435
  -457
  -481
  -505
  -531
  -558
  -587
  -616
  -648
  -680
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,177
  -431
  -453
  -475
  -498
  -523
  -548
  -575
  -603
  -633
  -665
  -697
  -731
  -768
  -806
  -846
  -888
  -932
  -978
  -1,027
  -1,078
  -1,132
  -1,188
  -1,247
  -1,309
  -1,374
  -1,443
  -1,515
  -1,590
  -1,670
  -1,753
Free cash flow, $m
  -670
  -7
  -13
  -18
  -23
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -78
  -84
  -91
  -98
  -105
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -223
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  624
  135
  143
  152
  162
  171
  181
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  379
  399
  420
  441
  464
  487
  512
  538
  565
  594
  624
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  623
  135
  143
  152
  162
  171
  181
  192
  203
  214
  226
  239
  252
  265
  279
  294
  310
  326
  343
  361
  379
  399
  420
  441
  464
  487
  512
  538
  565
  594
  624
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -47
  127
  130
  134
  139
  143
  149
  154
  160
  166
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  248
  259
  270
  282
  294
  308
  321
  336
  351
  367
  384
  401
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  155
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  252
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  334
  83
  84
  86
  87
  89
  91
  93
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  110
  114
  117
  121
  125
  130
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  162
  168
  175
  182
  189
  197
Discount rate, %
 
  7.60
  7.98
  8.38
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.18
  10.69
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  311
  71
  66
  61
  56
  51
  46
  41
  37
  32
  28
  24
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

SkyWest, Inc., through its subsidiaries, SkyWest Airlines, Inc. (SkyWest Airlines) and ExpressJet Airlines, Inc. (ExpressJet), operates regional airline operations in the United States. The Company's segments include SkyWest Airlines, ExpressJet and SkyWest Leasing. The SkyWest Airlines segment provides regional jet service to airports primarily located in the Midwestern and Western United States, as well as Mexico and Canada. The ExpressJet segment provides regional jet service to airports primarily located in the Eastern and Midwestern United States, as well as Mexico, Canada and the Caribbean. The SkyWest Leasing segment includes its E175 aircraft ownership business. As of December 31, 2016, the Company offered scheduled passenger service with approximately 3,160 daily departures to destinations in the United States, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean. The Company's flights are operated as Delta Connection, United Express, American Eagle or Alaska Airlines.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Skywest (SKYW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -17.3
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 2.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 60.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 50%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 165.9%
Total Debt to Equity 188.5%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Total Capital -4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.5%
Return On Equity -11.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.6%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 65.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.3%
EBITDA Margin 3.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Operating Margin -5.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Net Profit Margin -5.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.7%
Effective Tax Rate 34.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Payout Ratio -5.6%

SKYW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SKYW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3121 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Skywest. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Skywest. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SKYW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.6%, whose default value for SKYW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Skywest, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Skywest.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SKYW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SKYW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Skywest.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Skywest. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SKYW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SKYW are equal to 117.1%.

Life of production assets of 12.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Skywest operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SKYW is equal to -2.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1351 million for Skywest - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.354 million for Skywest is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Skywest at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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▶ Stocks Showing Market Leadership: SkyWest Earns 92 RS Rating   [Oct-27-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ SkyWest likely to provide Denver flights for Nebraska cities   [Oct-26-17 12:03PM  Associated Press]
▶ SkyWest beats Street 3Q forecasts   [Oct-25-17 05:23PM  Associated Press]
▶ SkyWest, Inc to Host Earnings Call   [07:45AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Embraer Announces Firm Order for 20 E-Jets from SkyWest   [Oct-02-17 08:55AM  PR Newswire]
▶ White House announces new travel restrictions   [Sep-25-17 10:55AM  Yahoo Finance Video]
▶ New Strong Buy Stocks for September 20th   [Sep-20-17 09:51AM  Zacks]
▶ SkyWest Clears Technical Benchmark, Hitting 80-Plus RS Rating   [Sep-18-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Stocks Generating Improved Relative Strength: SkyWest   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ EMBRAER S.A.: Embraer Announces Firm Order for 25 E-Jets   [Sep-06-17 07:05AM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of SKYW
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