Intrinsic value of Scotts Miracle-Gro - SMG

Previous Close

$75.51

  Intrinsic Value

$66.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-12%

Previous close

$75.51

 
Intrinsic value

$66.28

 
Up/down potential

-12%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 4.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
  5.29
  5.26
  5.24
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.13
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.07
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
Revenue, $m
  2,785
  2,934
  3,090
  3,254
  3,425
  3,604
  3,792
  3,989
  4,195
  4,412
  4,638
  4,876
  5,125
  5,387
  5,661
  5,949
  6,251
  6,567
  6,900
  7,248
  7,614
  7,998
  8,401
  8,824
  9,268
  9,735
  10,224
  10,737
  11,276
  11,842
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,280
  2,396
  2,517
  2,644
  2,777
  2,916
  3,061
  3,214
  3,374
  3,542
  3,599
  3,783
  3,977
  4,180
  4,393
  4,616
  4,850
  5,096
  5,354
  5,624
  5,908
  6,206
  6,519
  6,847
  7,192
  7,553
  7,933
  8,331
  8,750
  9,189
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,280
  2,396
  2,517
  2,644
  2,777
  2,916
  3,061
  3,214
  3,374
  3,542
  3,599
  3,783
  3,977
  4,180
  4,393
  4,616
  4,850
  5,096
  5,354
  5,624
  5,908
  6,206
  6,519
  6,847
  7,192
  7,553
  7,933
  8,331
  8,750
  9,189
Operating income, $m
  505
  538
  573
  610
  648
  689
  731
  775
  821
  869
  1,039
  1,093
  1,148
  1,207
  1,269
  1,333
  1,401
  1,472
  1,546
  1,624
  1,706
  1,792
  1,883
  1,977
  2,077
  2,181
  2,291
  2,406
  2,527
  2,654
EBITDA, $m
  791
  833
  878
  924
  973
  1,024
  1,077
  1,133
  1,191
  1,253
  1,317
  1,385
  1,455
  1,530
  1,608
  1,689
  1,775
  1,865
  1,959
  2,058
  2,162
  2,271
  2,386
  2,506
  2,632
  2,764
  2,903
  3,049
  3,202
  3,363
Interest expense (income), $m
  70
  81
  88
  95
  102
  109
  117
  126
  134
  143
  153
  163
  173
  184
  196
  208
  220
  234
  247
  262
  277
  293
  310
  328
  347
  366
  387
  408
  431
  454
  479
Earnings before tax, $m
  424
  450
  479
  508
  539
  571
  605
  640
  678
  717
  877
  919
  964
  1,011
  1,061
  1,113
  1,167
  1,224
  1,284
  1,347
  1,413
  1,482
  1,555
  1,631
  1,711
  1,795
  1,883
  1,976
  2,073
  2,175
Tax expense, $m
  114
  122
  129
  137
  146
  154
  163
  173
  183
  193
  237
  248
  260
  273
  286
  300
  315
  331
  347
  364
  381
  400
  420
  440
  462
  485
  508
  533
  560
  587
Net income, $m
  309
  329
  349
  371
  393
  417
  442
  468
  495
  523
  640
  671
  704
  738
  774
  812
  852
  894
  937
  983
  1,031
  1,082
  1,135
  1,190
  1,249
  1,310
  1,375
  1,442
  1,513
  1,587

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,895
  3,050
  3,212
  3,382
  3,560
  3,747
  3,942
  4,146
  4,361
  4,586
  4,821
  5,069
  5,328
  5,600
  5,885
  6,184
  6,497
  6,827
  7,172
  7,535
  7,915
  8,314
  8,733
  9,173
  9,635
  10,119
  10,628
  11,161
  11,722
  12,310
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,895
  3,050
  3,212
  3,382
  3,560
  3,747
  3,942
  4,146
  4,361
  4,586
  4,821
  5,069
  5,328
  5,600
  5,885
  6,184
  6,497
  6,827
  7,172
  7,535
  7,915
  8,314
  8,733
  9,173
  9,635
  10,119
  10,628
  11,161
  11,722
  12,310
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
Average production assets, $m
  1,668
  1,757
  1,851
  1,949
  2,051
  2,159
  2,271
  2,389
  2,513
  2,642
  2,778
  2,921
  3,070
  3,227
  3,391
  3,563
  3,744
  3,934
  4,133
  4,342
  4,561
  4,791
  5,032
  5,286
  5,552
  5,831
  6,124
  6,432
  6,755
  7,094
Working capital, $m
  267
  282
  297
  312
  329
  346
  364
  383
  403
  424
  445
  468
  492
  517
  543
  571
  600
  630
  662
  696
  731
  768
  807
  847
  890
  935
  981
  1,031
  1,083
  1,137
Total debt, $m
  1,515
  1,633
  1,757
  1,887
  2,023
  2,165
  2,315
  2,471
  2,635
  2,807
  2,987
  3,175
  3,373
  3,581
  3,799
  4,027
  4,267
  4,519
  4,783
  5,060
  5,350
  5,655
  5,975
  6,311
  6,664
  7,034
  7,423
  7,830
  8,259
  8,708
Total liabilities, $m
  2,212
  2,330
  2,454
  2,584
  2,720
  2,862
  3,012
  3,168
  3,332
  3,504
  3,684
  3,872
  4,070
  4,278
  4,496
  4,724
  4,964
  5,216
  5,480
  5,756
  6,047
  6,352
  6,672
  7,008
  7,361
  7,731
  8,119
  8,527
  8,955
  9,405
Total equity, $m
  683
  720
  758
  798
  840
  884
  930
  979
  1,029
  1,082
  1,138
  1,196
  1,257
  1,321
  1,389
  1,459
  1,533
  1,611
  1,693
  1,778
  1,868
  1,962
  2,061
  2,165
  2,274
  2,388
  2,508
  2,634
  2,766
  2,905
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,895
  3,050
  3,212
  3,382
  3,560
  3,746
  3,942
  4,147
  4,361
  4,586
  4,822
  5,068
  5,327
  5,599
  5,885
  6,183
  6,497
  6,827
  7,173
  7,534
  7,915
  8,314
  8,733
  9,173
  9,635
  10,119
  10,627
  11,161
  11,721
  12,310
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.220
  2.270
  2.320
  2.360
  2.410
  2.450
  2.490
  2.530
  2.560
  2.590
  2.620
  2.650
  2.680
  2.710
  2.740
  2.760
  2.780
  2.800
  2.830
  2.850
  2.860
  2.880
  2.900
  2.920
  2.930
  2.950
  2.960
  2.970
  2.990
  3.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  309
  329
  349
  371
  393
  417
  442
  468
  495
  523
  640
  671
  704
  738
  774
  812
  852
  894
  937
  983
  1,031
  1,082
  1,135
  1,190
  1,249
  1,310
  1,375
  1,442
  1,513
  1,587
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  286
  295
  304
  314
  324
  335
  346
  358
  370
  383
  278
  292
  307
  323
  339
  356
  374
  393
  413
  434
  456
  479
  503
  529
  555
  583
  612
  643
  675
  709
Funds from operations, $m
  595
  624
  654
  685
  718
  752
  788
  826
  865
  906
  918
  963
  1,011
  1,061
  1,113
  1,169
  1,226
  1,287
  1,351
  1,417
  1,487
  1,561
  1,638
  1,719
  1,804
  1,893
  1,987
  2,085
  2,188
  2,297
Change in working capital, $m
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
Cash from operations, $m
  581
  609
  639
  669
  701
  735
  770
  807
  845
  886
  896
  940
  987
  1,036
  1,087
  1,141
  1,197
  1,257
  1,319
  1,384
  1,452
  1,524
  1,599
  1,678
  1,761
  1,849
  1,940
  2,036
  2,137
  2,243
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -251
  -264
  -278
  -292
  -307
  -323
  -339
  -356
  -374
  -393
  -413
  -434
  -456
  -479
  -503
  -529
  -555
  -583
  -612
  -643
  -675
New CAPEX, $m
  -86
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -323
  -339
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -244
  -256
  -270
  -283
  -298
  -312
  -329
  -345
  -363
  -381
  -400
  -420
  -441
  -464
  -487
  -511
  -537
  -564
  -592
  -622
  -653
  -686
  -720
  -756
  -795
  -834
  -876
  -920
  -966
  -1,014
Free cash flow, $m
  338
  353
  369
  386
  404
  422
  441
  462
  483
  505
  496
  520
  546
  572
  600
  630
  660
  692
  726
  762
  799
  838
  879
  922
  967
  1,014
  1,064
  1,116
  1,171
  1,228
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
  320
  336
  353
  370
  389
  408
  428
  449
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  228
  240
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
  320
  336
  353
  370
  389
  408
  428
  449
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  451
  472
  493
  516
  540
  565
  591
  618
  647
  677
  676
  709
  744
  780
  818
  858
  900
  944
  990
  1,039
  1,090
  1,143
  1,199
  1,258
  1,320
  1,384
  1,452
  1,524
  1,599
  1,678
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -34
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  59
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
Cash available for distribution, $m
  417
  435
  455
  476
  498
  521
  545
  570
  596
  624
  620
  651
  682
  716
  751
  787
  826
  866
  909
  953
  1,000
  1,049
  1,100
  1,154
  1,211
  1,270
  1,332
  1,398
  1,467
  1,539
Discount rate, %
  8.00
  8.40
  8.82
  9.26
  9.72
  10.21
  10.72
  11.26
  11.82
  12.41
  13.03
  13.68
  14.37
  15.09
  15.84
  16.63
  17.46
  18.34
  19.25
  20.22
  21.23
  22.29
  23.40
  24.57
  25.80
  27.09
  28.45
  29.87
  31.36
  32.93
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  386
  370
  353
  334
  313
  291
  267
  243
  218
  194
  161
  140
  119
  100
  83
  67
  54
  42
  32
  24
  18
  13
  9
  6
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (Scotts Miracle-Gro) is a manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products. The Company's segments include Global Consumer. In North America, its brands include Scotts and Turf Builder lawn and grass seed products; Miracle-Gro, Nature's Care, Scotts, LiquaFeed and Osmocote gardening and landscape products; and Ortho, Roundup, Home Defense and Tomcat branded insect control, weed control and rodent control products. In the United Kingdom, its brands include Miracle-Gro plant fertilizers; Roundup, Weedol and Pathclear herbicides; EverGreen lawn fertilizers, and Levington gardening and landscape products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 20.1
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 6.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 193.8%
Total Debt to Equity 215.9%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Return On Equity 32%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.8%
EBITDA Margin 17.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Operating Margin 16.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Net Profit Margin 8.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
Payout Ratio 58.7%

SMG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2642 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Scotts Miracle-Gro. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Scotts Miracle-Gro. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8%, whose default value for SMG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Scotts Miracle-Gro, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Scotts Miracle-Gro.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for Scotts Miracle-Gro.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Scotts Miracle-Gro. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMG stock is equal to 1%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMG are equal to 59.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Scotts Miracle-Gro operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMG is equal to 9.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $649 million for Scotts Miracle-Gro - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58 million for Scotts Miracle-Gro is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Scotts Miracle-Gro at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.4 billion.

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