Intrinsic value of Scotts Miracle-Gro - SMG

Previous Close

$65.54

  Intrinsic Value

$62.60

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-4%

Previous close

$65.54

 
Intrinsic value

$62.60

 
Up/down potential

-4%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.20
  2.48
  2.73
  2.96
  3.16
  3.35
  3.51
  3.66
  3.79
  3.92
  4.02
  4.12
  4.21
  4.29
  4.36
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
Revenue, $m
  2,700
  2,767
  2,843
  2,927
  3,019
  3,121
  3,230
  3,348
  3,475
  3,612
  3,757
  3,912
  4,076
  4,251
  4,436
  4,633
  4,840
  5,060
  5,291
  5,536
  5,794
  6,066
  6,352
  6,654
  6,972
  7,307
  7,659
  8,029
  8,419
  8,829
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,214
  2,266
  2,325
  2,390
  2,462
  2,540
  2,625
  2,717
  2,816
  2,921
  2,915
  3,035
  3,163
  3,299
  3,442
  3,595
  3,756
  3,926
  4,106
  4,296
  4,496
  4,707
  4,929
  5,163
  5,410
  5,670
  5,943
  6,230
  6,533
  6,851
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,214
  2,266
  2,325
  2,390
  2,462
  2,540
  2,625
  2,717
  2,816
  2,921
  2,915
  3,035
  3,163
  3,299
  3,442
  3,595
  3,756
  3,926
  4,106
  4,296
  4,496
  4,707
  4,929
  5,163
  5,410
  5,670
  5,943
  6,230
  6,533
  6,851
Operating income, $m
  486
  501
  518
  537
  557
  580
  605
  631
  660
  690
  842
  876
  913
  952
  994
  1,038
  1,085
  1,134
  1,186
  1,240
  1,298
  1,359
  1,423
  1,491
  1,562
  1,637
  1,716
  1,799
  1,886
  1,978
EBITDA, $m
  658
  674
  692
  713
  735
  760
  787
  816
  846
  880
  915
  953
  993
  1,035
  1,081
  1,128
  1,179
  1,232
  1,289
  1,348
  1,411
  1,477
  1,547
  1,621
  1,698
  1,780
  1,865
  1,956
  2,050
  2,150
Interest expense (income), $m
  70
  81
  84
  87
  91
  94
  99
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  155
  164
  173
  183
  193
  203
  215
  226
  239
  252
  266
  281
  296
  312
  329
  347
Earnings before tax, $m
  405
  417
  431
  446
  463
  481
  501
  523
  546
  570
  716
  744
  774
  805
  839
  874
  912
  951
  993
  1,037
  1,084
  1,133
  1,184
  1,239
  1,296
  1,356
  1,420
  1,487
  1,557
  1,631
Tax expense, $m
  109
  113
  116
  120
  125
  130
  135
  141
  147
  154
  193
  201
  209
  217
  226
  236
  246
  257
  268
  280
  293
  306
  320
  334
  350
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
Net income, $m
  295
  304
  315
  326
  338
  351
  366
  382
  398
  416
  523
  543
  565
  588
  612
  638
  665
  694
  725
  757
  791
  827
  865
  904
  946
  990
  1,037
  1,085
  1,137
  1,190

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,807
  2,876
  2,955
  3,043
  3,139
  3,244
  3,358
  3,481
  3,613
  3,754
  3,905
  4,066
  4,237
  4,419
  4,612
  4,816
  5,031
  5,260
  5,500
  5,755
  6,023
  6,305
  6,603
  6,917
  7,248
  7,595
  7,961
  8,346
  8,752
  9,178
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,807
  2,876
  2,955
  3,043
  3,139
  3,244
  3,358
  3,481
  3,613
  3,754
  3,905
  4,066
  4,237
  4,419
  4,612
  4,816
  5,031
  5,260
  5,500
  5,755
  6,023
  6,305
  6,603
  6,917
  7,248
  7,595
  7,961
  8,346
  8,752
  9,178
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
  0.962
Average production assets, $m
  1,042
  1,068
  1,097
  1,130
  1,166
  1,205
  1,247
  1,292
  1,342
  1,394
  1,450
  1,510
  1,573
  1,641
  1,712
  1,788
  1,868
  1,953
  2,042
  2,137
  2,236
  2,341
  2,452
  2,569
  2,691
  2,820
  2,956
  3,099
  3,250
  3,408
Working capital, $m
  367
  376
  387
  398
  411
  424
  439
  455
  473
  491
  511
  532
  554
  578
  603
  630
  658
  688
  720
  753
  788
  825
  864
  905
  948
  994
  1,042
  1,092
  1,145
  1,201
Total debt, $m
  1,447
  1,501
  1,561
  1,627
  1,701
  1,781
  1,868
  1,962
  2,063
  2,171
  2,286
  2,409
  2,540
  2,679
  2,826
  2,982
  3,147
  3,321
  3,505
  3,699
  3,904
  4,120
  4,348
  4,588
  4,840
  5,106
  5,385
  5,680
  5,989
  6,315
Total liabilities, $m
  2,144
  2,198
  2,258
  2,324
  2,398
  2,478
  2,565
  2,659
  2,760
  2,868
  2,984
  3,107
  3,237
  3,376
  3,523
  3,679
  3,844
  4,018
  4,202
  4,397
  4,601
  4,817
  5,045
  5,285
  5,537
  5,803
  6,082
  6,377
  6,686
  7,012
Total equity, $m
  662
  679
  697
  718
  741
  766
  792
  821
  853
  886
  922
  960
  1,000
  1,043
  1,088
  1,136
  1,187
  1,241
  1,298
  1,358
  1,421
  1,488
  1,558
  1,632
  1,710
  1,793
  1,879
  1,970
  2,065
  2,166
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,806
  2,877
  2,955
  3,042
  3,139
  3,244
  3,357
  3,480
  3,613
  3,754
  3,906
  4,067
  4,237
  4,419
  4,611
  4,815
  5,031
  5,259
  5,500
  5,755
  6,022
  6,305
  6,603
  6,917
  7,247
  7,596
  7,961
  8,347
  8,751
  9,178
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.180
  2.210
  2.240
  2.270
  2.300
  2.330
  2.360
  2.390
  2.420
  2.450
  2.480
  2.510
  2.540
  2.570
  2.600
  2.620
  2.650
  2.680
  2.700
  2.720
  2.750
  2.770
  2.790
  2.810
  2.830
  2.850
  2.870
  2.880
  2.900
  2.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  295
  304
  315
  326
  338
  351
  366
  382
  398
  416
  523
  543
  565
  588
  612
  638
  665
  694
  725
  757
  791
  827
  865
  904
  946
  990
  1,037
  1,085
  1,137
  1,190
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  172
  173
  174
  176
  178
  180
  182
  184
  187
  189
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  157
  164
  172
Funds from operations, $m
  467
  477
  489
  502
  516
  531
  548
  566
  585
  606
  596
  619
  644
  671
  699
  728
  760
  793
  828
  865
  904
  945
  988
  1,034
  1,082
  1,133
  1,186
  1,242
  1,301
  1,363
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
Cash from operations, $m
  459
  468
  479
  490
  503
  518
  533
  550
  568
  587
  576
  598
  622
  647
  673
  702
  732
  763
  796
  832
  869
  908
  949
  993
  1,039
  1,087
  1,138
  1,191
  1,248
  1,307
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -164
New CAPEX, $m
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -121
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -208
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -278
  -292
  -307
  -322
Free cash flow, $m
  385
  390
  396
  403
  411
  420
  430
  441
  454
  467
  450
  465
  482
  500
  519
  539
  561
  584
  608
  634
  661
  690
  721
  753
  786
  822
  860
  899
  941
  985
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  46
  53
  60
  67
  74
  80
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  228
  240
  252
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  46
  53
  60
  67
  74
  80
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  139
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  228
  240
  252
  266
  280
  294
  309
  325
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  431
  443
  456
  469
  484
  500
  517
  535
  555
  575
  565
  588
  613
  639
  666
  695
  726
  758
  792
  828
  866
  906
  948
  992
  1,039
  1,088
  1,139
  1,193
  1,250
  1,310
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  417
  427
  437
  449
  461
  475
  490
  506
  523
  542
  529
  550
  572
  596
  621
  647
  675
  705
  736
  768
  803
  839
  878
  918
  961
  1,006
  1,053
  1,102
  1,155
  1,209
Discount rate, %
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  386
  362
  338
  314
  289
  263
  238
  213
  189
  166
  135
  116
  98
  81
  67
  54
  42
  33
  25
  19
  13
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (Scotts Miracle-Gro) is a manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products. The Company's segments include Global Consumer. In North America, its brands include Scotts and Turf Builder lawn and grass seed products; Miracle-Gro, Nature's Care, Scotts, LiquaFeed and Osmocote gardening and landscape products; and Ortho, Roundup, Home Defense and Tomcat branded insect control, weed control and rodent control products. In the United Kingdom, its brands include Miracle-Gro plant fertilizers; Roundup, Weedol and Pathclear herbicides; EverGreen lawn fertilizers, and Levington gardening and landscape products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.5
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 5.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 193.8%
Total Debt to Equity 215.9%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Total Capital 11%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Return On Equity 32%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 36.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.8%
EBITDA Margin 17.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Operating Margin 16.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Net Profit Margin 8.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.7%
Payout Ratio 58.7%

SMG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2642.1 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Scotts Miracle-Gro. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Scotts Miracle-Gro. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for SMG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Scotts Miracle-Gro, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Scotts Miracle-Gro.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.8% for Scotts Miracle-Gro.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Scotts Miracle-Gro. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMG are equal to 38.6%.

Life of production assets of 19.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Scotts Miracle-Gro operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMG is equal to 13.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $648.8 million for Scotts Miracle-Gro - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 55.434 million for Scotts Miracle-Gro is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Scotts Miracle-Gro at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.

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