Intrinsic value of Scotts Miracle-Gro - SMG

Previous Close

$99.75

  Intrinsic Value

$37.93

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-62%

  Value-price divergence*

-24%

Previous close

$99.75

 
Intrinsic value

$37.93

 
Up/down potential

-62%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-24%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 5.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.96
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
Revenue, $m
  2,836
  3,077
  3,328
  3,589
  3,860
  4,141
  4,434
  4,738
  5,054
  5,383
  5,725
  6,081
  6,452
  6,839
  7,241
  7,661
  8,100
  8,557
  9,035
  9,534
  10,056
  10,602
  11,172
  11,769
  12,394
  13,049
  13,734
  14,452
  15,204
  15,992
  16,818
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,778
  3,002
  3,234
  3,476
  3,726
  3,987
  4,258
  4,540
  4,833
  5,138
  5,418
  5,748
  6,092
  6,451
  6,825
  7,216
  7,623
  8,049
  8,494
  8,958
  9,444
  9,953
  10,485
  11,041
  11,624
  12,235
  12,874
  13,544
  14,246
  14,982
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,377
  2,778
  3,002
  3,234
  3,476
  3,726
  3,987
  4,258
  4,540
  4,833
  5,138
  5,418
  5,748
  6,092
  6,451
  6,825
  7,216
  7,623
  8,049
  8,494
  8,958
  9,444
  9,953
  10,485
  11,041
  11,624
  12,235
  12,874
  13,544
  14,246
  14,982
Operating income, $m
  459
  299
  326
  354
  384
  415
  447
  480
  514
  550
  588
  664
  704
  746
  790
  836
  884
  934
  986
  1,041
  1,098
  1,157
  1,219
  1,285
  1,353
  1,424
  1,499
  1,577
  1,660
  1,746
  1,836
EBITDA, $m
  533
  395
  428
  461
  496
  532
  570
  609
  650
  692
  736
  782
  829
  879
  931
  985
  1,041
  1,100
  1,161
  1,225
  1,292
  1,362
  1,436
  1,512
  1,593
  1,677
  1,765
  1,857
  1,954
  2,055
  2,161
Interest expense (income), $m
  54
  55
  63
  71
  79
  88
  97
  106
  116
  126
  136
  147
  158
  170
  182
  195
  208
  222
  236
  251
  267
  284
  301
  319
  338
  358
  378
  400
  423
  446
  471
Earnings before tax, $m
  393
  243
  263
  283
  305
  327
  350
  374
  399
  425
  452
  517
  546
  577
  608
  642
  676
  712
  750
  789
  830
  874
  919
  966
  1,015
  1,067
  1,121
  1,178
  1,237
  1,299
  1,364
Tax expense, $m
  140
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  140
  147
  156
  164
  173
  183
  192
  202
  213
  224
  236
  248
  261
  274
  288
  303
  318
  334
  351
  368
Net income, $m
  315
  177
  192
  207
  222
  239
  255
  273
  291
  310
  330
  377
  399
  421
  444
  468
  494
  520
  547
  576
  606
  638
  671
  705
  741
  779
  818
  860
  903
  948
  996

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  50
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,803
  2,987
  3,231
  3,484
  3,747
  4,021
  4,305
  4,600
  4,907
  5,226
  5,558
  5,904
  6,264
  6,639
  7,030
  7,438
  7,864
  8,308
  8,772
  9,257
  9,763
  10,293
  10,847
  11,427
  12,033
  12,669
  13,334
  14,031
  14,761
  15,526
  16,328
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,753
  2,987
  3,231
  3,484
  3,747
  4,021
  4,305
  4,600
  4,907
  5,226
  5,558
  5,904
  6,264
  6,639
  7,030
  7,438
  7,864
  8,308
  8,772
  9,257
  9,763
  10,293
  10,847
  11,427
  12,033
  12,669
  13,334
  14,031
  14,761
  15,526
  16,328
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
Average production assets, $m
  939
  1,019
  1,102
  1,188
  1,278
  1,371
  1,468
  1,568
  1,673
  1,782
  1,895
  2,013
  2,136
  2,264
  2,397
  2,536
  2,681
  2,832
  2,991
  3,156
  3,329
  3,509
  3,698
  3,896
  4,103
  4,319
  4,546
  4,784
  5,032
  5,293
  5,567
Working capital, $m
  399
  578
  626
  675
  726
  779
  834
  891
  950
  1,012
  1,076
  1,143
  1,213
  1,286
  1,361
  1,440
  1,523
  1,609
  1,699
  1,792
  1,891
  1,993
  2,100
  2,213
  2,330
  2,453
  2,582
  2,717
  2,858
  3,006
  3,162
Total debt, $m
  1,310
  1,433
  1,613
  1,800
  1,995
  2,197
  2,407
  2,626
  2,853
  3,089
  3,335
  3,591
  3,858
  4,135
  4,425
  4,726
  5,041
  5,370
  5,713
  6,072
  6,447
  6,839
  7,249
  7,678
  8,127
  8,597
  9,089
  9,605
  10,145
  10,711
  11,305
Total liabilities, $m
  2,088
  2,211
  2,391
  2,578
  2,773
  2,975
  3,185
  3,404
  3,631
  3,867
  4,113
  4,369
  4,636
  4,913
  5,203
  5,504
  5,819
  6,148
  6,491
  6,850
  7,225
  7,617
  8,027
  8,456
  8,905
  9,375
  9,867
  10,383
  10,923
  11,489
  12,083
Total equity, $m
  715
  777
  840
  906
  974
  1,045
  1,119
  1,196
  1,276
  1,359
  1,445
  1,535
  1,629
  1,726
  1,828
  1,934
  2,045
  2,160
  2,281
  2,407
  2,538
  2,676
  2,820
  2,971
  3,129
  3,294
  3,467
  3,648
  3,838
  4,037
  4,245
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,803
  2,988
  3,231
  3,484
  3,747
  4,020
  4,304
  4,600
  4,907
  5,226
  5,558
  5,904
  6,265
  6,639
  7,031
  7,438
  7,864
  8,308
  8,772
  9,257
  9,763
  10,293
  10,847
  11,427
  12,034
  12,669
  13,334
  14,031
  14,761
  15,526
  16,328
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.832
  1.840
  1.920
  1.990
  2.050
  2.100
  2.150
  2.200
  2.240
  2.270
  2.310
  2.340
  2.370
  2.400
  2.420
  2.440
  2.470
  2.490
  2.510
  2.520
  2.540
  2.560
  2.570
  2.580
  2.600
  2.610
  2.620
  2.630
  2.640
  2.650
  2.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.242
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260
  0.260

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  315
  177
  192
  207
  222
  239
  255
  273
  291
  310
  330
  377
  399
  421
  444
  468
  494
  520
  547
  576
  606
  638
  671
  705
  741
  779
  818
  860
  903
  948
  996
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  74
  97
  102
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  175
  185
  195
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  294
  310
  326
Funds from operations, $m
  -7
  274
  294
  314
  334
  356
  379
  402
  426
  452
  478
  495
  524
  553
  584
  617
  650
  686
  722
  761
  801
  843
  887
  933
  981
  1,031
  1,084
  1,139
  1,197
  1,258
  1,322
Change in working capital, $m
  -244
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
Cash from operations, $m
  237
  229
  246
  265
  284
  303
  324
  345
  367
  390
  414
  428
  454
  481
  509
  538
  568
  600
  632
  667
  703
  740
  780
  821
  863
  908
  955
  1,004
  1,056
  1,110
  1,166
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -111
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -294
  -310
New CAPEX, $m
  -58
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -273
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -134
  -135
  -143
  -150
  -159
  -168
  -177
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -265
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -324
  -340
  -358
  -376
  -394
  -414
  -435
  -457
  -480
  -504
  -529
  -555
  -583
Free cash flow, $m
  103
  94
  104
  114
  124
  135
  147
  158
  170
  183
  196
  200
  213
  228
  243
  258
  275
  291
  309
  327
  346
  365
  385
  407
  429
  452
  476
  501
  527
  555
  583
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  116
  173
  180
  187
  195
  202
  210
  219
  227
  236
  246
  256
  266
  278
  289
  302
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  516
  540
  566
  593
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -116
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -5
  173
  180
  187
  195
  202
  210
  219
  227
  236
  246
  256
  266
  278
  289
  302
  315
  329
  343
  359
  375
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  516
  540
  566
  593
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  96
  267
  284
  301
  319
  338
  357
  377
  398
  419
  442
  455
  480
  506
  532
  560
  589
  620
  652
  685
  720
  757
  795
  836
  878
  922
  968
  1,017
  1,067
  1,121
  1,177
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -94
  -62
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -208
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  205
  221
  235
  251
  267
  283
  300
  318
  336
  356
  365
  386
  408
  431
  454
  479
  505
  531
  559
  589
  619
  651
  685
  720
  757
  795
  835
  878
  922
  968
Discount rate, %
 
  7.50
  7.88
  8.27
  8.68
  9.12
  9.57
  10.05
  10.55
  11.08
  11.63
  12.22
  12.83
  13.47
  14.14
  14.85
  15.59
  16.37
  17.19
  18.05
  18.95
  19.90
  20.89
  21.94
  23.04
  24.19
  25.40
  26.67
  28.00
  29.40
  30.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  191
  190
  186
  180
  172
  163
  153
  142
  131
  118
  103
  91
  79
  68
  57
  47
  38
  31
  24
  18
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (Scotts Miracle-Gro) is a manufacturer and marketer of branded consumer lawn and garden products. The Company's segments include Global Consumer. In North America, its brands include Scotts and Turf Builder lawn and grass seed products; Miracle-Gro, Nature's Care, Scotts, LiquaFeed and Osmocote gardening and landscape products; and Ortho, Roundup, Home Defense and Tomcat branded insect control, weed control and rodent control products. In the United Kingdom, its brands include Miracle-Gro plant fertilizers; Roundup, Weedol and Pathclear herbicides; EverGreen lawn fertilizers, and Levington gardening and landscape products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.1
Price to Sales 2.1
Price to Book 8.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 33.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -6.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 157.3%
Total Debt to Equity 183.2%
Interest Coverage 8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 13.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Total Capital 16.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Equity 47.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.6%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.5%
EBITDA Margin 18.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Operating Margin 16.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Net Profit Margin 11.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 35.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.3%
Payout Ratio 37.1%

SMG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2836 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Scotts Miracle-Gro. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Scotts Miracle-Gro. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.5%, whose default value for SMG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Scotts Miracle-Gro, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Scotts Miracle-Gro.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.4% for Scotts Miracle-Gro.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Scotts Miracle-Gro. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMG are equal to 33.1%.

Life of production assets of 17.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Scotts Miracle-Gro operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMG is equal to 18.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $715 million for Scotts Miracle-Gro - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.693 million for Scotts Miracle-Gro is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Scotts Miracle-Gro at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.9 billion.

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Financial statements of SMG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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