Intrinsic value of Summit Therapeutics plc - SMMT

Previous Close

$1.84

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$1.84

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMMT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  56
  87
  129
  188
  265
  364
  489
  642
  826
  1,043
  1,295
  1,584
  1,909
  2,271
  2,670
  3,106
  3,578
  4,085
  4,627
  5,202
  5,810
  6,450
  7,122
  7,825
  8,560
  9,326
  10,123
  10,953
  11,816
  12,713
Variable operating expenses, $m
  131
  202
  300
  435
  612
  841
  1,128
  1,480
  1,904
  2,404
  2,982
  3,646
  4,395
  5,229
  6,148
  7,152
  8,239
  9,406
  10,653
  11,977
  13,377
  14,851
  16,398
  18,017
  19,708
  21,472
  23,308
  25,219
  27,206
  29,271
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  30
  30
  31
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  35
  36
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
Total operating expenses, $m
  161
  232
  331
  467
  644
  874
  1,162
  1,515
  1,939
  2,440
  3,019
  3,684
  4,433
  5,268
  6,188
  7,193
  8,281
  9,449
  10,697
  12,022
  13,423
  14,898
  16,446
  18,066
  19,758
  21,523
  23,360
  25,272
  27,261
  29,327
Operating income, $m
  -105
  -145
  -202
  -279
  -380
  -510
  -673
  -873
  -1,113
  -1,397
  -1,724
  -2,100
  -2,525
  -2,997
  -3,518
  -4,087
  -4,702
  -5,364
  -6,070
  -6,820
  -7,613
  -8,448
  -9,324
  -10,241
  -11,198
  -12,197
  -13,237
  -14,319
  -15,444
  -16,614
EBITDA, $m
  -102
  -142
  -199
  -275
  -375
  -505
  -667
  -866
  -1,105
  -1,387
  -1,714
  -2,088
  -2,510
  -2,980
  -3,498
  -4,064
  -4,676
  -5,333
  -6,035
  -6,781
  -7,569
  -8,399
  -9,270
  -10,182
  -11,134
  -12,127
  -13,161
  -14,237
  -15,356
  -16,518
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  11
  25
  45
  72
  107
  153
  211
  282
  367
  467
  584
  717
  867
  1,035
  1,220
  1,421
  1,639
  1,874
  2,124
  2,390
  2,671
  2,967
  3,278
  3,603
  3,943
  4,297
  4,666
  5,049
  5,448
Earnings before tax, $m
  -106
  -156
  -227
  -323
  -451
  -617
  -826
  -1,084
  -1,395
  -1,764
  -2,191
  -2,684
  -3,242
  -3,865
  -4,553
  -5,306
  -6,124
  -7,003
  -7,944
  -8,944
  -10,003
  -11,119
  -12,291
  -13,518
  -14,801
  -16,140
  -17,534
  -18,985
  -20,494
  -22,062
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -106
  -156
  -227
  -323
  -451
  -617
  -826
  -1,084
  -1,395
  -1,764
  -2,191
  -2,684
  -3,242
  -3,865
  -4,553
  -5,306
  -6,124
  -7,003
  -7,944
  -8,944
  -10,003
  -11,119
  -12,291
  -13,518
  -14,801
  -16,140
  -17,534
  -18,985
  -20,494
  -22,062

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  116
  179
  267
  388
  547
  752
  1,010
  1,326
  1,706
  2,155
  2,676
  3,272
  3,944
  4,692
  5,517
  6,418
  7,393
  8,441
  9,560
  10,748
  12,004
  13,327
  14,715
  16,168
  17,685
  19,268
  20,916
  22,631
  24,414
  26,267
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  116
  179
  267
  388
  547
  752
  1,010
  1,326
  1,706
  2,155
  2,676
  3,272
  3,944
  4,692
  5,517
  6,418
  7,393
  8,441
  9,560
  10,748
  12,004
  13,327
  14,715
  16,168
  17,685
  19,268
  20,916
  22,631
  24,414
  26,267
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.483
  0.486
  0.483
  0.485
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
  0.484
Average production assets, $m
  13
  19
  29
  42
  60
  82
  110
  144
  186
  235
  291
  356
  429
  511
  601
  699
  805
  919
  1,041
  1,170
  1,307
  1,451
  1,602
  1,761
  1,926
  2,098
  2,278
  2,464
  2,659
  2,860
Working capital, $m
  -7
  -11
  -16
  -23
  -33
  -45
  -61
  -80
  -102
  -129
  -161
  -196
  -237
  -282
  -331
  -385
  -444
  -507
  -574
  -645
  -720
  -800
  -883
  -970
  -1,061
  -1,156
  -1,255
  -1,358
  -1,465
  -1,576
Total debt, $m
  40
  93
  167
  268
  401
  572
  787
  1,051
  1,369
  1,743
  2,179
  2,676
  3,237
  3,862
  4,551
  5,303
  6,117
  6,992
  7,926
  8,918
  9,967
  11,072
  12,231
  13,444
  14,711
  16,033
  17,409
  18,841
  20,329
  21,877
Total liabilities, $m
  97
  149
  223
  324
  457
  628
  843
  1,107
  1,425
  1,800
  2,235
  2,732
  3,293
  3,918
  4,607
  5,359
  6,173
  7,048
  7,982
  8,974
  10,023
  11,128
  12,287
  13,500
  14,767
  16,089
  17,465
  18,897
  20,386
  21,933
Total equity, $m
  19
  29
  44
  64
  90
  124
  167
  219
  282
  356
  442
  540
  651
  774
  910
  1,059
  1,220
  1,393
  1,577
  1,773
  1,981
  2,199
  2,428
  2,668
  2,918
  3,179
  3,451
  3,734
  4,028
  4,334
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  116
  178
  267
  388
  547
  752
  1,010
  1,326
  1,707
  2,156
  2,677
  3,272
  3,944
  4,692
  5,517
  6,418
  7,393
  8,441
  9,559
  10,747
  12,004
  13,327
  14,715
  16,168
  17,685
  19,268
  20,916
  22,631
  24,414
  26,267
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.120
  3.160
  3.790
  4.180
  4.440
  4.610
  4.720
  4.800
  4.860
  4.900
  4.930
  4.960
  4.970
  4.990
  5.000
  5.010
  5.010
  5.020
  5.030
  5.030
  5.030
  5.040
  5.040
  5.040
  5.040
  5.040
  5.040
  5.050
  5.050
  5.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165
  0.165

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -106
  -156
  -227
  -323
  -451
  -617
  -826
  -1,084
  -1,395
  -1,764
  -2,191
  -2,684
  -3,242
  -3,865
  -4,553
  -5,306
  -6,124
  -7,003
  -7,944
  -8,944
  -10,003
  -11,119
  -12,291
  -13,518
  -14,801
  -16,140
  -17,534
  -18,985
  -20,494
  -22,062
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  53
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  95
Funds from operations, $m
  -103
  -153
  -223
  -320
  -447
  -612
  -820
  -1,077
  -1,386
  -1,754
  -2,181
  -2,672
  -3,227
  -3,848
  -4,533
  -5,283
  -6,097
  -6,973
  -7,909
  -8,905
  -9,959
  -11,070
  -12,237
  -13,460
  -14,737
  -16,070
  -17,458
  -18,903
  -20,405
  -21,967
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
Cash from operations, $m
  -101
  -149
  -218
  -312
  -438
  -600
  -805
  -1,058
  -1,364
  -1,727
  -2,150
  -2,636
  -3,187
  -3,803
  -4,484
  -5,229
  -6,038
  -6,910
  -7,842
  -8,834
  -9,884
  -10,991
  -12,154
  -13,373
  -14,646
  -15,975
  -17,359
  -18,800
  -20,298
  -21,855
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -76
  -82
  -89
New CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -13
  -17
  -22
  -28
  -34
  -41
  -49
  -57
  -65
  -73
  -82
  -90
  -98
  -106
  -114
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -187
  -194
  -202
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -7
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -24
  -31
  -38
  -46
  -55
  -65
  -75
  -85
  -96
  -107
  -118
  -129
  -141
  -153
  -164
  -176
  -188
  -199
  -211
  -224
  -236
  -249
  -263
  -276
  -291
Free cash flow, $m
  -106
  -157
  -228
  -326
  -456
  -624
  -835
  -1,096
  -1,410
  -1,782
  -2,215
  -2,711
  -3,272
  -3,899
  -4,591
  -5,347
  -6,168
  -7,051
  -7,994
  -8,998
  -10,060
  -11,179
  -12,354
  -13,584
  -14,870
  -16,211
  -17,609
  -19,062
  -20,574
  -22,146
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  36
  53
  74
  101
  133
  171
  215
  264
  318
  375
  435
  497
  561
  625
  689
  752
  814
  875
  934
  992
  1,049
  1,104
  1,159
  1,213
  1,267
  1,321
  1,376
  1,432
  1,489
  1,547
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  113
  167
  241
  343
  478
  651
  869
  1,136
  1,458
  1,838
  2,277
  2,782
  3,353
  3,988
  4,689
  5,455
  6,284
  7,176
  8,128
  9,140
  10,210
  11,337
  12,520
  13,758
  15,052
  16,401
  17,806
  19,268
  20,788
  22,368
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  149
  220
  315
  444
  611
  822
  1,084
  1,400
  1,776
  2,213
  2,712
  3,279
  3,914
  4,613
  5,378
  6,207
  7,098
  8,051
  9,062
  10,132
  11,259
  12,441
  13,679
  14,971
  16,319
  17,722
  19,182
  20,700
  22,277
  23,915
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  43
  63
  87
  117
  155
  198
  248
  304
  365
  431
  497
  569
  641
  715
  788
  860
  931
  1,000
  1,068
  1,134
  1,199
  1,263
  1,325
  1,387
  1,449
  1,511
  1,574
  1,637
  1,702
  1,769
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -113
  -167
  -241
  -343
  -478
  -651
  -869
  -1,136
  -1,458
  -1,838
  -2,277
  -2,782
  -3,353
  -3,988
  -4,689
  -5,455
  -6,284
  -7,176
  -8,128
  -9,140
  -10,210
  -11,337
  -12,520
  -13,758
  -15,052
  -16,401
  -17,806
  -19,268
  -20,788
  -22,368
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -68
  -104
  -154
  -226
  -323
  -453
  -620
  -832
  -1,092
  -1,407
  -1,780
  -2,214
  -2,711
  -3,274
  -3,902
  -4,595
  -5,354
  -6,176
  -7,060
  -8,006
  -9,011
  -10,074
  -11,195
  -12,371
  -13,603
  -14,890
  -16,232
  -17,631
  -19,086
  -20,599
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -65
  -95
  -134
  -186
  -251
  -329
  -419
  -520
  -627
  -738
  -845
  -945
  -1,031
  -1,099
  -1,145
  -1,168
  -1,165
  -1,137
  -1,087
  -1,017
  -932
  -836
  -734
  -630
  -529
  -434
  -348
  -273
  -208
  -155
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  31.5
  10.5
  3.6
  1.3
  0.5
  0.2
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Summit Therapeutics plc is a biopharmaceutical company, which is engaged in drug development. The Company is focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of medicines for indications for which there are no existing or only inadequate therapies. It is conducting clinical programs focused on the genetic disease Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) and the infectious disease Clostridium difficile infection (CDI). Its lead DMD product candidate is ezutromid, which is an orally administered small molecule. Its lead CDI product candidate is ridinilazole, which is an orally administered small molecule antibiotic. Its Ridinilazole is in Phase II clinical trials. It has conducted over three Phase I clinical trials of ezutromid. Its DMD program is based on utrophin modulation. It has received an orphan drug designation to ezutromid for the treatment of DMD. It is also developing an earlier-stage pipeline of second and future generation utrophin modulators for the treatment of DMD.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Summit Therapeutics plc (SMMT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SMMT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMMT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $35 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Summit Therapeutics plc. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Summit Therapeutics plc. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMMT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SMMT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Summit Therapeutics plc, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Summit Therapeutics plc.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMMT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 237.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $29 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMMT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 26.8% for Summit Therapeutics plc.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Summit Therapeutics plc. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMMT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMMT are equal to 22.5%.

Life of production assets of 44.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Summit Therapeutics plc operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMMT is equal to -12.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $13.5273972603 million for Summit Therapeutics plc - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 32.078 million for Summit Therapeutics plc is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Summit Therapeutics plc at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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