Intrinsic value of Semtech - SMTC

Previous Close

$48.55

  Intrinsic Value

$18.59

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-62%

Previous close

$48.55

 
Intrinsic value

$18.59

 
Up/down potential

-62%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMTC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2018), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047
   2048

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.59
  6.43
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
  5.85
  5.76
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.36
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.17
  5.16
  5.14
Revenue, $m
  635
  684
  735
  788
  842
  899
  959
  1,020
  1,085
  1,152
  1,221
  1,294
  1,369
  1,448
  1,531
  1,617
  1,706
  1,800
  1,898
  2,001
  2,108
  2,221
  2,338
  2,461
  2,590
  2,726
  2,867
  3,015
  3,171
  3,334
Variable operating expenses, $m
  533
  571
  611
  652
  694
  739
  785
  833
  883
  935
  948
  1,005
  1,063
  1,125
  1,189
  1,256
  1,325
  1,398
  1,474
  1,554
  1,637
  1,725
  1,816
  1,912
  2,012
  2,117
  2,227
  2,342
  2,463
  2,589
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  533
  571
  611
  652
  694
  739
  785
  833
  883
  935
  948
  1,005
  1,063
  1,125
  1,189
  1,256
  1,325
  1,398
  1,474
  1,554
  1,637
  1,725
  1,816
  1,912
  2,012
  2,117
  2,227
  2,342
  2,463
  2,589
Operating income, $m
  102
  113
  124
  136
  148
  161
  174
  188
  202
  217
  273
  289
  306
  323
  342
  361
  381
  402
  424
  447
  471
  496
  522
  550
  579
  609
  640
  674
  708
  745
EBITDA, $m
  197
  213
  228
  245
  262
  280
  298
  317
  337
  358
  379
  402
  426
  450
  476
  502
  530
  559
  590
  622
  655
  690
  727
  765
  805
  847
  891
  937
  985
  1,036
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  108
Earnings before tax, $m
  90
  99
  109
  119
  129
  140
  151
  163
  175
  187
  240
  254
  268
  283
  298
  315
  331
  349
  368
  387
  407
  428
  450
  473
  497
  523
  549
  577
  607
  637
Tax expense, $m
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  65
  69
  72
  76
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  156
  164
  172
Net income, $m
  66
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  119
  127
  137
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
  329
  345
  363
  382
  401
  421
  443
  465

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  977
  1,052
  1,130
  1,212
  1,296
  1,384
  1,475
  1,570
  1,669
  1,772
  1,879
  1,990
  2,107
  2,228
  2,355
  2,487
  2,625
  2,770
  2,921
  3,079
  3,244
  3,417
  3,597
  3,787
  3,985
  4,193
  4,411
  4,639
  4,878
  5,129
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  977
  1,052
  1,130
  1,212
  1,296
  1,384
  1,475
  1,570
  1,669
  1,772
  1,879
  1,990
  2,107
  2,228
  2,355
  2,487
  2,625
  2,770
  2,921
  3,079
  3,244
  3,417
  3,597
  3,787
  3,985
  4,193
  4,411
  4,639
  4,878
  5,129
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
Average production assets, $m
  555
  598
  642
  688
  736
  786
  838
  892
  948
  1,006
  1,067
  1,131
  1,197
  1,266
  1,338
  1,413
  1,491
  1,573
  1,659
  1,749
  1,843
  1,941
  2,044
  2,151
  2,264
  2,382
  2,506
  2,635
  2,771
  2,914
Working capital, $m
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  116
  122
  129
  136
  143
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
Total debt, $m
  243
  277
  312
  349
  386
  426
  467
  509
  553
  599
  647
  697
  750
  804
  861
  920
  982
  1,047
  1,114
  1,185
  1,259
  1,336
  1,417
  1,502
  1,591
  1,684
  1,782
  1,884
  1,991
  2,104
Total liabilities, $m
  438
  471
  506
  543
  581
  620
  661
  703
  748
  794
  842
  892
  944
  998
  1,055
  1,114
  1,176
  1,241
  1,308
  1,379
  1,453
  1,531
  1,612
  1,697
  1,785
  1,879
  1,976
  2,078
  2,186
  2,298
Total equity, $m
  539
  581
  624
  669
  715
  764
  814
  867
  921
  978
  1,037
  1,099
  1,163
  1,230
  1,300
  1,373
  1,449
  1,529
  1,612
  1,699
  1,791
  1,886
  1,986
  2,090
  2,200
  2,315
  2,435
  2,561
  2,693
  2,831
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  977
  1,052
  1,130
  1,212
  1,296
  1,384
  1,475
  1,570
  1,669
  1,772
  1,879
  1,991
  2,107
  2,228
  2,355
  2,487
  2,625
  2,770
  2,920
  3,078
  3,244
  3,417
  3,598
  3,787
  3,985
  4,194
  4,411
  4,639
  4,879
  5,129
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.450
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
  0.720
  0.720
  0.730
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
  0.740
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552
  0.552

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  66
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  119
  127
  137
  175
  185
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
  329
  345
  363
  382
  401
  421
  443
  465
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  141
  149
  157
  166
  175
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  238
  251
  264
  277
  291
Funds from operations, $m
  162
  173
  184
  196
  208
  221
  234
  248
  262
  277
  282
  299
  315
  333
  352
  371
  391
  412
  434
  457
  481
  507
  533
  561
  590
  620
  652
  685
  720
  757
Change in working capital, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
Cash from operations, $m
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  218
  231
  244
  259
  274
  278
  294
  311
  329
  347
  366
  386
  407
  429
  451
  475
  500
  526
  553
  582
  612
  643
  676
  711
  747
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -95
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -238
  -251
  -264
  -277
New CAPEX, $m
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -92
  -99
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -297
  -312
  -328
  -344
  -362
  -381
  -400
  -419
Free cash flow, $m
  66
  71
  77
  82
  88
  94
  100
  107
  113
  120
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
  185
  196
  206
  218
  229
  241
  254
  268
  282
  296
  311
  327
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  166
  165
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  228
  240
  253
  266
  280
  295
  310
  326
  343
  361
  379
  398
  419
  440
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  166
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  119
  126
  133
  140
  148
  156
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
  235
  247
  260
Cash available for distribution, $m
  224
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  110
  106
  113
  120
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  179
  189
  200
  210
  222
  234
  246
  259
  272
  287
  301
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  215
  58
  60
  61
  62
  62
  61
  61
  59
  57
  50
  48
  46
  43
  40
  36
  33
  30
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Semtech Corporation is a supplier of analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products. The Company designs, develops and markets a range of products for commercial applications, which are sold into the enterprise computing, communications, consumer and industrial end-markets. Its product lines include Signal Integrity, Protection, Wireless and Sensing, and Power and High-Reliability. Applications for the industrial market include video broadcast studio equipment, automated meter reading, wireless charging, military and aerospace, medical, security systems, automotive, Internet of Things, industrial and home automation, and video security and surveillance. Enterprise computing end-markets include desktops, notebooks, servers, graphic boards, printers, datacenter related equipment and passive optical networks. Communications end-market applications include wireless base stations, carrier networks, switches and routers, cable modems, signal conditioners and wireless local area network.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Semtech (SMTC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 58.1
Price to Sales 5.9
Price to Book 5.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 27.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 37.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 153.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 21
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 37.5%
Total Debt to Equity 39.8%
Interest Coverage 13
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 6.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.9%
Return On Equity 9.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.7%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.7%
EBITDA Margin 23.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Operating Margin 15.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 13.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Net Profit Margin 10.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Effective Tax Rate 24.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
Payout Ratio 0%

SMTC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMTC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $588 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Semtech. The default revenue input number comes from 2018 income statement of Semtech. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMTC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SMTC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Semtech, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Semtech.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMTC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMTC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Semtech.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Semtech. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMTC stock is equal to 8.2%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMTC are equal to 87.4%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Semtech operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMTC is equal to 5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $665 million for Semtech - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 66 million for Semtech is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Semtech at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Semtechs LoRa Technology Creates Smarter Streets in India   [Jul-26-18 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Hot Stocks From One of Wall Street's Best Analysts   [Jun-13-18 11:59AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Semtech to Host Analyst Day   [Jun-06-18 04:30PM  Business Wire]
▶ Marvell Technology Edges Views, Offers Mixed Guidance   [May-31-18 04:46PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Semtech: Fiscal 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-30-18 04:31PM  Associated Press]
▶ Semtech to Present Educational Sessions at InfoComm 2018   [May-24-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Semtech Keynotes at LoRa Alliance 10th All Members Meeting   [May-17-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Semtech Announces Accelerated Vesting of Comcast Warrant   [May-03-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Semtech Announces Acquisition of IC Interconnect   [May-02-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Semtechs LoRa Technology Enables Smart Soil Sensors   [Mar-20-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Shares of Semtech Corp. Jumped Today   [Mar-15-18 12:51PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Semtech reports 4Q loss   [Mar-14-18 06:49PM  Associated Press]
▶ Semtechs Optical Networking Products Showcasing at OFC 2018   [Mar-01-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Semtech Launches the IoT Innovators Challenge   [Feb-27-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Semtech and Lacuna Receiving Messages from Space   [Feb-15-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Semtech Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTC) Undervalued?   [Jan-22-18 01:30AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Semtech to Present at Investor Event   [Jan-10-18 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Semtech Appoints Chris Chang to Executive Management Team   [Jan-09-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
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