Intrinsic value of SMTC - SMTX

Previous Close

$3.92

  Intrinsic Value

$38.31

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+877%

Previous close

$3.92

 
Intrinsic value

$38.31

 
Up/down potential

+877%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SMTX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  34.80
  31.82
  29.14
  26.72
  24.55
  22.60
  20.84
  19.25
  17.83
  16.55
  15.39
  14.35
  13.42
  12.57
  11.82
  11.14
  10.52
  9.97
  9.47
  9.03
  8.62
  8.26
  7.93
  7.64
  7.38
  7.14
  6.93
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
Revenue, $m
  188
  247
  319
  405
  504
  618
  747
  891
  1,050
  1,223
  1,412
  1,614
  1,831
  2,061
  2,305
  2,561
  2,831
  3,113
  3,408
  3,715
  4,036
  4,369
  4,716
  5,076
  5,451
  5,840
  6,244
  6,665
  7,102
  7,557
Variable operating expenses, $m
  139
  183
  237
  300
  374
  458
  554
  660
  778
  907
  1,046
  1,196
  1,357
  1,527
  1,708
  1,898
  2,098
  2,307
  2,525
  2,753
  2,991
  3,238
  3,494
  3,761
  4,039
  4,327
  4,627
  4,939
  5,262
  5,599
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  76
  77
  79
  81
  83
Total operating expenses, $m
  183
  228
  283
  347
  422
  507
  604
  711
  830
  960
  1,101
  1,252
  1,414
  1,585
  1,768
  1,959
  2,160
  2,371
  2,590
  2,819
  3,059
  3,307
  3,565
  3,833
  4,113
  4,403
  4,704
  5,018
  5,343
  5,682
Operating income, $m
  5
  19
  37
  58
  83
  111
  143
  180
  220
  263
  311
  362
  417
  475
  537
  602
  671
  743
  818
  896
  977
  1,062
  1,150
  1,242
  1,338
  1,437
  1,540
  1,647
  1,759
  1,875
EBITDA, $m
  8
  24
  43
  65
  92
  122
  157
  195
  238
  285
  336
  391
  450
  512
  578
  648
  721
  798
  878
  962
  1,049
  1,140
  1,234
  1,333
  1,435
  1,541
  1,651
  1,766
  1,885
  2,009
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  26
  30
  34
  39
  44
  49
  54
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  91
  99
  106
  114
  122
  130
  138
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  17
  34
  53
  76
  103
  133
  166
  204
  244
  288
  336
  387
  441
  498
  559
  622
  688
  758
  830
  906
  984
  1,066
  1,151
  1,239
  1,331
  1,426
  1,526
  1,629
  1,736
Tax expense, $m
  1
  5
  9
  14
  21
  28
  36
  45
  55
  66
  78
  91
  104
  119
  135
  151
  168
  186
  205
  224
  245
  266
  288
  311
  335
  359
  385
  412
  440
  469
Net income, $m
  3
  12
  25
  39
  56
  75
  97
  122
  149
  178
  211
  245
  282
  322
  364
  408
  454
  503
  553
  606
  661
  718
  778
  840
  905
  972
  1,041
  1,114
  1,189
  1,267

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  94
  124
  161
  203
  253
  311
  375
  448
  527
  615
  709
  811
  920
  1,036
  1,158
  1,287
  1,422
  1,564
  1,712
  1,867
  2,028
  2,196
  2,370
  2,551
  2,739
  2,935
  3,138
  3,349
  3,569
  3,797
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  94
  124
  161
  203
  253
  311
  375
  448
  527
  615
  709
  811
  920
  1,036
  1,158
  1,287
  1,422
  1,564
  1,712
  1,867
  2,028
  2,196
  2,370
  2,551
  2,739
  2,935
  3,138
  3,349
  3,569
  3,797
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.000
  1.992
  1.981
  1.995
  1.992
  1.987
  1.992
  1.989
  1.992
  1.989
  1.992
  1.990
  1.990
  1.989
  1.991
  1.990
  1.991
  1.990
  1.991
  1.990
  1.990
  1.990
  1.990
  1.990
  1.990
  1.990
  1.990
  1.990
  1.990
  1.990
Average production assets, $m
  17
  22
  28
  36
  45
  55
  66
  79
  93
  109
  126
  144
  163
  183
  205
  228
  252
  277
  303
  331
  359
  389
  420
  452
  485
  520
  556
  593
  632
  673
Working capital, $m
  32
  42
  54
  68
  85
  104
  126
  150
  176
  206
  237
  271
  308
  346
  387
  430
  476
  523
  573
  624
  678
  734
  792
  853
  916
  981
  1,049
  1,120
  1,193
  1,270
Total debt, $m
  38
  60
  86
  118
  154
  196
  243
  295
  353
  417
  485
  559
  639
  723
  812
  905
  1,004
  1,107
  1,215
  1,327
  1,444
  1,566
  1,693
  1,824
  1,961
  2,103
  2,251
  2,404
  2,564
  2,730
Total liabilities, $m
  69
  90
  117
  148
  184
  226
  273
  325
  383
  447
  516
  590
  669
  753
  842
  936
  1,034
  1,137
  1,245
  1,357
  1,474
  1,596
  1,723
  1,854
  1,991
  2,133
  2,281
  2,435
  2,595
  2,761
Total equity, $m
  26
  34
  44
  56
  69
  85
  102
  122
  144
  168
  194
  221
  251
  283
  316
  351
  388
  427
  468
  510
  554
  599
  647
  696
  748
  801
  857
  914
  974
  1,037
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  95
  124
  161
  204
  253
  311
  375
  447
  527
  615
  710
  811
  920
  1,036
  1,158
  1,287
  1,422
  1,564
  1,713
  1,867
  2,028
  2,195
  2,370
  2,550
  2,739
  2,934
  3,138
  3,349
  3,569
  3,798
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.490
  1.770
  1.970
  2.120
  2.220
  2.310
  2.370
  2.410
  2.450
  2.480
  2.510
  2.530
  2.540
  2.560
  2.570
  2.580
  2.580
  2.590
  2.600
  2.600
  2.610
  2.610
  2.620
  2.620
  2.620
  2.630
  2.630
  2.630
  2.630
  2.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273
  0.273

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  12
  25
  39
  56
  75
  97
  122
  149
  178
  211
  245
  282
  322
  364
  408
  454
  503
  553
  606
  661
  718
  778
  840
  905
  972
  1,041
  1,114
  1,189
  1,267
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  46
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  126
  135
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  17
  30
  46
  65
  86
  110
  137
  167
  200
  236
  274
  315
  359
  405
  453
  504
  558
  614
  672
  733
  796
  862
  930
  1,002
  1,076
  1,152
  1,232
  1,315
  1,402
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  63
  65
  68
  71
  73
  76
Cash from operations, $m
  -2
  7
  18
  32
  48
  67
  89
  113
  141
  171
  204
  240
  279
  320
  364
  410
  459
  511
  564
  621
  679
  740
  804
  870
  939
  1,010
  1,084
  1,162
  1,242
  1,325
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -66
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -104
  -111
  -119
  -126
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -40
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -88
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -132
  -140
  -148
  -158
  -166
Free cash flow, $m
  -9
  -2
  7
  18
  32
  48
  66
  87
  111
  137
  166
  197
  231
  267
  305
  346
  390
  435
  483
  533
  585
  639
  695
  754
  815
  878
  944
  1,013
  1,084
  1,159
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  42
  47
  53
  58
  63
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  22
  22
  26
  31
  36
  42
  47
  53
  58
  63
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
  166
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  20
  34
  50
  68
  89
  113
  140
  169
  200
  234
  271
  310
  351
  394
  440
  488
  538
  590
  645
  702
  761
  822
  886
  952
  1,021
  1,092
  1,167
  1,244
  1,325
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -62
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  6
  12
  24
  38
  55
  74
  96
  120
  147
  176
  209
  243
  280
  319
  361
  405
  451
  499
  550
  603
  658
  715
  774
  836
  900
  967
  1,037
  1,109
  1,184
  1,262
Discount rate, %
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.59
  11.12
  11.68
  12.26
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.43
  17.26
  18.12
  19.02
  19.97
  20.97
  22.02
  23.12
  24.28
  25.49
  26.77
  28.11
  29.51
  30.99
  32.54
  34.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  6
  10
  18
  26
  34
  40
  46
  50
  52
  53
  52
  49
  46
  42
  37
  32
  27
  22
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
  4
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3
  94.3

SMTC Corporation (SMTC) is a provider of electronics manufacturing services (EMS). The Company's manufacturing services include product design and sustaining engineering services, printed circuit board assembly (PCBA), production, enclosure fabrication, systems integration and testing services, configuration to order, build to order and direct order fulfillment. Its geographic segments include the United States, Mexico and China. SMTC offers integrated contract manufacturing services to global original equipment manufacturers and technology companies primarily within the industrial, networking and computing, communications and medical market sectors. SMTC offers over three vertically integrated manufacturing streams, such as enclosures and precision metal fabrication products, PCBA products and larger-scale systems. For each of these streams, SMTC provides a range of manufacturing services, from assembly, test to system level test and end customer order fulfillment.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SMTC (SMTX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -24%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.8%
Total Debt to Equity 50%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.7%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.8%
Asset Turnover 2.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 8.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
EBITDA Margin 3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.2%
Operating Margin 0.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SMTX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SMTX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $139.231 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SMTC. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of SMTC. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SMTX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 34.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.3%, whose default value for SMTX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SMTC, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SMTC.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SMTX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 74.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $43 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SMTX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for SMTC.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SMTC. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SMTX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SMTX are equal to 8.9%.

Life of production assets of 3.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SMTC operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SMTX is equal to 16.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $19.074 million for SMTC - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.304 million for SMTC is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SMTC at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ SMTC Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2018 Results   [Nov-06-18 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SMTC Corporation Invests in its U.S. and Mexican Operations   [Oct-31-18 05:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SMTC Announces Results of Rights Offering   [Aug-28-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SMTC Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Aug-08-18 06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ SMTC Corporation Reports Strong Second Quarter Growth   [Aug-07-18 05:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ How Financially Strong Is SMTC Corporation (NASDAQ:SMTX)?   [Jun-04-18 06:10PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ SMTC Corporation Reports First Quarter 2018 Results   [May-07-18 05:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Who Are SMTC Corporations (NASDAQ:SMTX) Major Shareholders?   [Apr-13-18 05:27PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ SMTC Appoints Steve Waszak as Chief Financial Officer   [Mar-13-18 06:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SMTC Corporation to Host Earnings Call   [Mar-08-18 07:15AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ SMTC Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2017 Results   [Mar-07-18 05:15PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SMTC Reports Third Quarter Fiscal 2017 Results   [Nov-02-17 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SMTC Reports Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2017 Results   [Aug-02-17 04:45PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SMTC Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Results   [Mar-08-17 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SMTC Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2016 Results   [Mar-02-17 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SMTC Announces Management Change   [09:15AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ How Imation Corp. (IMN) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-15-16 06:55PM  Insider Monkey]
▶ SMTC Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2016 Results   [May-05-16 05:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ SMTC Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2015 Results   [Mar-16-16 05:56PM  GlobeNewswire]

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