Intrinsic value of Soligenix - SNGX

Previous Close

$1.10

  Intrinsic Value

$3.29

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+199%

Previous close

$1.10

 
Intrinsic value

$3.29

 
Up/down potential

+199%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SNGX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  9
  13
  20
  29
  41
  57
  76
  100
  128
  162
  201
  246
  296
  353
  414
  482
  555
  634
  718
  807
  902
  1,001
  1,105
  1,215
  1,329
  1,447
  1,571
  1,700
  1,834
  1,973
Variable operating expenses, $m
  5
  8
  12
  17
  25
  34
  45
  60
  77
  97
  120
  147
  177
  211
  248
  289
  332
  380
  430
  483
  540
  599
  662
  727
  795
  867
  941
  1,018
  1,098
  1,181
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
Total operating expenses, $m
  15
  18
  23
  28
  36
  45
  57
  72
  89
  109
  133
  160
  190
  225
  262
  303
  346
  395
  445
  498
  556
  615
  678
  744
  812
  885
  959
  1,036
  1,117
  1,200
Operating income, $m
  -7
  -5
  -3
  1
  5
  11
  19
  28
  39
  53
  68
  86
  106
  128
  152
  179
  208
  240
  273
  309
  346
  386
  427
  471
  516
  563
  613
  664
  717
  773
EBITDA, $m
  -7
  -5
  -3
  1
  5
  11
  19
  28
  40
  53
  69
  86
  107
  129
  154
  181
  210
  242
  275
  311
  349
  389
  431
  475
  520
  568
  618
  669
  723
  779
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
Earnings before tax, $m
  -7
  -5
  -3
  0
  5
  10
  17
  26
  36
  48
  63
  79
  97
  118
  140
  165
  192
  221
  251
  284
  318
  354
  392
  432
  474
  517
  562
  609
  658
  709
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  32
  38
  45
  52
  60
  68
  77
  86
  96
  106
  117
  128
  140
  152
  165
  178
  191
Net income, $m
  -7
  -5
  -3
  0
  3
  7
  12
  19
  26
  35
  46
  58
  71
  86
  102
  120
  140
  161
  183
  207
  232
  259
  286
  316
  346
  378
  411
  445
  480
  518

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9
  13
  20
  29
  41
  56
  75
  99
  127
  161
  200
  244
  295
  350
  412
  479
  552
  630
  714
  803
  896
  995
  1,099
  1,207
  1,321
  1,439
  1,562
  1,690
  1,823
  1,961
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9
  13
  20
  29
  41
  56
  75
  99
  127
  161
  200
  244
  295
  350
  412
  479
  552
  630
  714
  803
  896
  995
  1,099
  1,207
  1,321
  1,439
  1,562
  1,690
  1,823
  1,961
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.018
  1.013
  1.010
  1.008
  1.006
  1.005
  1.008
  1.003
  1.009
  1.005
  1.006
  1.005
  1.006
  1.006
  1.005
  1.007
  1.006
  1.005
  1.007
  1.006
  1.006
  1.006
  1.006
  1.006
  1.006
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
Working capital, $m
  -3
  -4
  -7
  -9
  -13
  -18
  -25
  -32
  -42
  -53
  -65
  -80
  -96
  -115
  -135
  -157
  -181
  -206
  -233
  -262
  -293
  -325
  -359
  -395
  -432
  -470
  -511
  -553
  -596
  -641
Total debt, $m
  2
  5
  10
  16
  23
  33
  46
  61
  80
  101
  127
  156
  188
  225
  265
  308
  356
  406
  461
  518
  579
  644
  711
  782
  855
  932
  1,012
  1,095
  1,182
  1,272
Total liabilities, $m
  6
  9
  13
  19
  27
  37
  49
  64
  83
  105
  130
  159
  191
  228
  268
  312
  359
  410
  464
  522
  583
  647
  714
  785
  858
  935
  1,015
  1,098
  1,185
  1,275
Total equity, $m
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  20
  26
  35
  45
  56
  70
  86
  103
  123
  144
  168
  193
  221
  250
  281
  314
  348
  385
  423
  462
  504
  547
  591
  638
  687
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9
  14
  20
  29
  41
  57
  75
  99
  128
  161
  200
  245
  294
  351
  412
  480
  552
  631
  714
  803
  897
  995
  1,099
  1,208
  1,320
  1,439
  1,562
  1,689
  1,823
  1,962
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.790
  1.170
  1.390
  1.540
  1.630
  1.690
  1.730
  1.760
  1.780
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.830
  1.830
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.840
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
  1.850
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350
  0.350

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -7
  -5
  -3
  0
  3
  7
  12
  19
  26
  35
  46
  58
  71
  86
  102
  120
  140
  161
  183
  207
  232
  259
  286
  316
  346
  378
  411
  445
  480
  518
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Funds from operations, $m
  -7
  -5
  -3
  0
  3
  8
  13
  19
  27
  36
  46
  58
  72
  87
  104
  122
  142
  163
  186
  210
  235
  262
  290
  319
  350
  382
  416
  450
  486
  524
Change in working capital, $m
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -45
Cash from operations, $m
  -6
  -4
  -1
  3
  7
  13
  19
  27
  36
  47
  59
  73
  88
  105
  124
  144
  166
  189
  213
  239
  266
  294
  324
  355
  387
  421
  456
  492
  530
  569
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Free cash flow, $m
  -6
  -4
  -1
  3
  7
  12
  18
  26
  35
  46
  58
  72
  87
  104
  122
  142
  163
  186
  210
  235
  262
  290
  319
  350
  381
  415
  449
  485
  522
  561
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  36
  40
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  7
  5
  3
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  10
  10
  9
  9
  9
  10
  12
  15
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  36
  40
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  87
  90
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  6
  9
  12
  16
  22
  31
  41
  54
  68
  83
  100
  119
  140
  162
  185
  210
  236
  264
  293
  323
  354
  386
  420
  455
  491
  529
  568
  609
  651
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1
  -1
  3
  9
  11
  17
  24
  33
  44
  56
  70
  85
  102
  120
  140
  162
  185
  209
  235
  262
  290
  319
  350
  382
  415
  450
  486
  523
  562
  603
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1
  -1
  3
  7
  9
  12
  16
  21
  25
  29
  33
  36
  39
  40
  41
  41
  40
  38
  36
  33
  30
  26
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  24.8
  10.0
  5.8
  4.5
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3
  4.3

Soligenix, Inc., a late-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing products to treat rare diseases primarily in the United States. It operates through two segments, BioTherapeutics and Vaccines/BioDefense. The BioTherapeutics segment develops SGX301, a photodynamic therapy, which is in Phase III clinical trial to treat cutaneous T-cell lymphoma; and proprietary formulations of oral beclomethasone 17,21-dipropionate for the prevention/treatment of gastrointestinal (GI) disorders characterized by severe inflammation, including pediatric Crohn’s disease and acute radiation enteritis. This segment also offers SGX942, a novel innate defense regulator technology that is in Phase II clinical trial to treat oral mucositis in head and neck cancer. The Vaccines/BioDefense segment is involved in the development of RiVax, a ricin toxin vaccine candidate, which has been completed Phase IB clinical trial for the treatment of vaccine against ricin toxin poisoning; VeloThrax, an anthrax vaccine candidate; OrbeShield, a GI acute radiation syndrome (GI ARS) therapeutic candidate, which is in pre-clinical stage to treat therapeutics against GI ARS; and SGX943, a melioidosis therapeutic candidate that is in pre-clinical stage for the treatment of melioidosis. These vaccines are supported by its ThermoVax, a heat stabilization technology. The company was formerly known as DOR BioPharma, Inc. and changed its name to Soligenix, Inc. in 2009. Soligenix, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Soligenix (SNGX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 0
Price to Sales 0
Price to Book 0
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0
Price to Free Cash Flow 0
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -100%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Total Capital 0%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Return On Equity 0%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 0%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 0%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SNGX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SNGX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5.432472 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Soligenix. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Soligenix. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SNGX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SNGX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Soligenix, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Soligenix.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SNGX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $10 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SNGX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Soligenix.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Soligenix. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SNGX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SNGX are equal to 1.6%.

Life of production assets of 1.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Soligenix operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SNGX is equal to -32.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $6.319712 million for Soligenix - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 8.751 million for Soligenix is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Soligenix at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
SNGX Soligenix 1.10 5.24  str.buy
EBS Emergent Bioso 68.44 3.72  str.sell
XON Intrexon 10.31 0.27  str.sell
ABEO Abeona Therape 8.05 0.83  str.sell
ALT Altimmune 3.28 0.00  str.sell
CBLI Cleveland BioL 1.73 0.05  str.sell
ALDR Alder BioPharm 13.00 1.03  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ SNGX: New Financing Boosts Balance Sheet   [Jul-06-18 01:35PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ Soligenix Incs (NASDAQ:SNGX) Shift From Loss To Profit   [May-25-18 04:49PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Who Owns Most Of Soligenix Inc (SNGX)?   [Nov-14-17 07:39PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ SNGX: Balance Sheet Boosted by Recent Financings   [Nov-06-17 11:00AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ Is There Now An Opportunity In Soligenix Inc (SNGX)?   [Oct-11-17 08:34PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ SNGX: SGX942: Cancer Control is an Added Bonus for OM Treatment   [May-11-17 11:00AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ Soligenix to Present at the World Orphan Drug Congress   [Apr-12-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Soligenix (SNGX): A Key Player in the Biodefense Space   [Mar-13-17 01:00PM  Zacks Small Cap Research]
▶ SNGX: Potential Expansion of Synthetic Hypericin into Psoriasis   [Feb-22-17 10:00AM  Zacks Small Cap Research]

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