Intrinsic value of Synopsys - SNPS

Previous Close

$98.94

  Intrinsic Value

$58.99

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-40%

Previous close

$98.94

 
Intrinsic value

$58.99

 
Up/down potential

-40%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SNPS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 14.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.20
  13.28
  12.45
  11.71
  11.04
  10.43
  9.89
  9.40
  8.96
  8.56
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
Revenue, $m
  3,112
  3,525
  3,964
  4,428
  4,917
  5,430
  5,967
  6,528
  7,112
  7,722
  8,355
  9,014
  9,699
  10,411
  11,151
  11,919
  12,719
  13,550
  14,414
  15,314
  16,251
  17,227
  18,245
  19,306
  20,413
  21,568
  22,775
  24,035
  25,353
  26,730
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,662
  2,976
  3,310
  3,663
  4,034
  4,424
  4,833
  5,259
  5,704
  6,167
  6,353
  6,854
  7,375
  7,916
  8,478
  9,063
  9,670
  10,302
  10,960
  11,644
  12,356
  13,099
  13,872
  14,679
  15,521
  16,399
  17,317
  18,275
  19,277
  20,324
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,662
  2,976
  3,310
  3,663
  4,034
  4,424
  4,833
  5,259
  5,704
  6,167
  6,353
  6,854
  7,375
  7,916
  8,478
  9,063
  9,670
  10,302
  10,960
  11,644
  12,356
  13,099
  13,872
  14,679
  15,521
  16,399
  17,317
  18,275
  19,277
  20,324
Operating income, $m
  450
  549
  654
  765
  882
  1,005
  1,134
  1,268
  1,408
  1,554
  2,002
  2,160
  2,325
  2,495
  2,672
  2,857
  3,048
  3,247
  3,455
  3,670
  3,895
  4,129
  4,372
  4,627
  4,892
  5,169
  5,458
  5,760
  6,076
  6,406
EBITDA, $m
  863
  978
  1,100
  1,228
  1,364
  1,506
  1,655
  1,811
  1,973
  2,142
  2,318
  2,501
  2,691
  2,888
  3,093
  3,307
  3,528
  3,759
  3,999
  4,248
  4,508
  4,779
  5,061
  5,356
  5,663
  5,983
  6,318
  6,668
  7,033
  7,415
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  8
  24
  41
  60
  79
  100
  121
  144
  168
  192
  218
  244
  272
  301
  331
  362
  394
  428
  463
  499
  537
  576
  617
  660
  705
  751
  800
  850
  903
  959
Earnings before tax, $m
  442
  525
  613
  705
  803
  905
  1,012
  1,124
  1,241
  1,362
  1,785
  1,916
  2,052
  2,194
  2,342
  2,495
  2,654
  2,820
  2,992
  3,171
  3,358
  3,552
  3,755
  3,967
  4,188
  4,418
  4,659
  4,910
  5,173
  5,447
Tax expense, $m
  119
  142
  165
  190
  217
  244
  273
  304
  335
  368
  482
  517
  554
  592
  632
  674
  717
  761
  808
  856
  907
  959
  1,014
  1,071
  1,131
  1,193
  1,258
  1,326
  1,397
  1,471
Net income, $m
  323
  383
  447
  515
  586
  661
  739
  821
  906
  994
  1,303
  1,399
  1,498
  1,602
  1,709
  1,821
  1,937
  2,058
  2,184
  2,315
  2,451
  2,593
  2,741
  2,896
  3,057
  3,225
  3,401
  3,584
  3,776
  3,977

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  6,162
  6,980
  7,850
  8,768
  9,736
  10,752
  11,815
  12,926
  14,084
  15,290
  16,545
  17,850
  19,206
  20,616
  22,081
  23,603
  25,185
  26,831
  28,543
  30,325
  32,180
  34,113
  36,128
  38,229
  40,421
  42,709
  45,098
  47,595
  50,204
  52,931
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  6,162
  6,980
  7,850
  8,768
  9,736
  10,752
  11,815
  12,926
  14,084
  15,290
  16,545
  17,850
  19,206
  20,616
  22,081
  23,603
  25,185
  26,831
  28,543
  30,325
  32,180
  34,113
  36,128
  38,229
  40,421
  42,709
  45,098
  47,595
  50,204
  52,931
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
  0.505
Average production assets, $m
  1,939
  2,196
  2,470
  2,759
  3,063
  3,383
  3,717
  4,067
  4,431
  4,811
  5,205
  5,616
  6,043
  6,486
  6,947
  7,426
  7,924
  8,441
  8,980
  9,541
  10,124
  10,733
  11,366
  12,027
  12,717
  13,437
  14,189
  14,974
  15,795
  16,653
Working capital, $m
  -1,108
  -1,255
  -1,411
  -1,576
  -1,750
  -1,933
  -2,124
  -2,324
  -2,532
  -2,749
  -2,974
  -3,209
  -3,453
  -3,706
  -3,970
  -4,243
  -4,528
  -4,824
  -5,131
  -5,452
  -5,785
  -6,133
  -6,495
  -6,873
  -7,267
  -7,678
  -8,108
  -8,557
  -9,026
  -9,516
Total debt, $m
  445
  766
  1,108
  1,469
  1,849
  2,249
  2,667
  3,103
  3,558
  4,032
  4,525
  5,038
  5,571
  6,125
  6,701
  7,299
  7,921
  8,568
  9,241
  9,941
  10,670
  11,430
  12,222
  13,047
  13,909
  14,808
  15,747
  16,728
  17,753
  18,825
Total liabilities, $m
  2,422
  2,743
  3,085
  3,446
  3,826
  4,225
  4,643
  5,080
  5,535
  6,009
  6,502
  7,015
  7,548
  8,102
  8,678
  9,276
  9,898
  10,545
  11,217
  11,918
  12,647
  13,407
  14,198
  15,024
  15,885
  16,785
  17,724
  18,705
  19,730
  20,802
Total equity, $m
  3,740
  4,237
  4,765
  5,322
  5,910
  6,526
  7,172
  7,846
  8,549
  9,281
  10,043
  10,835
  11,658
  12,514
  13,403
  14,327
  15,288
  16,286
  17,326
  18,407
  19,534
  20,707
  21,930
  23,205
  24,536
  25,924
  27,375
  28,890
  30,474
  32,129
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  6,162
  6,980
  7,850
  8,768
  9,736
  10,751
  11,815
  12,926
  14,084
  15,290
  16,545
  17,850
  19,206
  20,616
  22,081
  23,603
  25,186
  26,831
  28,543
  30,325
  32,181
  34,114
  36,128
  38,229
  40,421
  42,709
  45,099
  47,595
  50,204
  52,931
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.120
  0.180
  0.230
  0.280
  0.310
  0.340
  0.370
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.450
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607
  0.607

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  323
  383
  447
  515
  586
  661
  739
  821
  906
  994
  1,303
  1,399
  1,498
  1,602
  1,709
  1,821
  1,937
  2,058
  2,184
  2,315
  2,451
  2,593
  2,741
  2,896
  3,057
  3,225
  3,401
  3,584
  3,776
  3,977
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  414
  429
  446
  463
  482
  501
  521
  543
  565
  588
  315
  340
  366
  393
  421
  450
  480
  512
  544
  578
  614
  650
  689
  729
  771
  814
  860
  908
  957
  1,009
Funds from operations, $m
  736
  812
  893
  978
  1,068
  1,162
  1,260
  1,363
  1,470
  1,582
  1,618
  1,739
  1,864
  1,995
  2,130
  2,271
  2,418
  2,570
  2,728
  2,893
  3,065
  3,244
  3,430
  3,625
  3,828
  4,039
  4,261
  4,492
  4,733
  4,986
Change in working capital, $m
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -165
  -174
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -208
  -217
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -253
  -263
  -274
  -285
  -296
  -308
  -320
  -334
  -348
  -362
  -378
  -394
  -411
  -430
  -449
  -469
  -490
Cash from operations, $m
  874
  959
  1,049
  1,143
  1,242
  1,345
  1,452
  1,563
  1,679
  1,799
  1,844
  1,974
  2,108
  2,248
  2,394
  2,545
  2,702
  2,866
  3,036
  3,214
  3,398
  3,591
  3,792
  4,002
  4,222
  4,451
  4,690
  4,941
  5,202
  5,476
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -103
  -117
  -133
  -150
  -167
  -186
  -205
  -225
  -246
  -269
  -292
  -315
  -340
  -366
  -393
  -421
  -450
  -480
  -512
  -544
  -578
  -614
  -650
  -689
  -729
  -771
  -814
  -860
  -908
  -957
New CAPEX, $m
  -241
  -257
  -273
  -289
  -304
  -320
  -335
  -349
  -364
  -379
  -395
  -411
  -427
  -443
  -461
  -479
  -498
  -518
  -539
  -561
  -584
  -608
  -634
  -661
  -690
  -720
  -752
  -785
  -821
  -858
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -344
  -374
  -406
  -439
  -471
  -506
  -540
  -574
  -610
  -648
  -687
  -726
  -767
  -809
  -854
  -900
  -948
  -998
  -1,051
  -1,105
  -1,162
  -1,222
  -1,284
  -1,350
  -1,419
  -1,491
  -1,566
  -1,645
  -1,729
  -1,815
Free cash flow, $m
  530
  584
  643
  705
  770
  839
  912
  988
  1,068
  1,151
  1,158
  1,248
  1,341
  1,439
  1,540
  1,645
  1,754
  1,868
  1,986
  2,109
  2,236
  2,370
  2,508
  2,653
  2,803
  2,960
  3,124
  3,295
  3,474
  3,661
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  301
  322
  342
  361
  380
  399
  418
  436
  455
  474
  493
  513
  533
  554
  576
  598
  622
  647
  673
  700
  729
  760
  792
  826
  861
  899
  939
  981
  1,025
  1,072
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  142
  114
  80
  43
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  443
  436
  422
  404
  381
  399
  418
  436
  455
  474
  493
  513
  533
  554
  576
  598
  622
  647
  673
  700
  729
  760
  792
  826
  861
  899
  939
  981
  1,025
  1,072
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  973
  1,020
  1,065
  1,109
  1,152
  1,239
  1,330
  1,425
  1,523
  1,625
  1,651
  1,760
  1,874
  1,993
  2,115
  2,243
  2,376
  2,515
  2,659
  2,809
  2,966
  3,129
  3,300
  3,478
  3,665
  3,859
  4,063
  4,276
  4,499
  4,733
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -465
  -497
  -528
  -558
  -587
  -617
  -645
  -674
  -703
  -732
  -762
  -792
  -823
  -856
  -889
  -924
  -961
  -999
  -1,039
  -1,082
  -1,126
  -1,173
  -1,223
  -1,275
  -1,331
  -1,389
  -1,450
  -1,515
  -1,584
  -1,656
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  509
  523
  537
  551
  564
  622
  685
  751
  820
  893
  889
  968
  1,051
  1,137
  1,226
  1,319
  1,416
  1,516
  1,619
  1,727
  1,839
  1,956
  2,077
  2,203
  2,334
  2,471
  2,613
  2,761
  2,916
  3,077
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  488
  479
  467
  454
  437
  451
  462
  469
  471
  468
  422
  413
  400
  382
  360
  335
  308
  279
  249
  219
  190
  162
  136
  112
  91
  72
  56
  43
  32
  23
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.0
  98.4
  98.0
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8
  97.8

Synopsys, Inc. provides software, intellectual property (IP) and services. The Company supplies the electronic design automation (EDA) software that engineers use to design and test integrated circuits, also known as chips. It also offers IP products, which are pre-designed circuits that engineers use as components of larger chip designs rather than designing those circuits themselves. It provides software and hardware used to develop the electronic systems that incorporate chips and the software that runs on them. It provides technical services to support its solutions and help its customers develop chips and electronic systems. It is also a provider of software tools that developers use to develop software code in a range of industries, including electronics, financial services, energy, and industrials. It offers products and services in four categories: core EDA; IP, Systems and Software Integrity; Manufacturing Solutions, and Professional Services and Other.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Synopsys (SNPS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 108.6
Price to Sales 5.5
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 23.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 49.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 12.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 154.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -7.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 105
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 4.1%
Total Debt to Equity 4.4%
Interest Coverage 56
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital 4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Return On Equity 4.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 76%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.8%
EBITDA Margin 21.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Operating Margin 12.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Effective Tax Rate 64.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SNPS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SNPS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2724.88 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Synopsys. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Synopsys. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SNPS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SNPS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Synopsys, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Synopsys.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SNPS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SNPS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Synopsys.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Synopsys. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SNPS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SNPS are equal to 62.3%.

Life of production assets of 16.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Synopsys operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SNPS is equal to -35.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3275.62 million for Synopsys - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 149.011 million for Synopsys is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Synopsys at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $14.7 billion.

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