Intrinsic value of SodaStream International - SODA

Previous Close

$143.21

  Intrinsic Value

$75.30

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-47%

Previous close

$143.21

 
Intrinsic value

$75.30

 
Up/down potential

-47%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SODA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.10
  13.19
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.84
  9.35
  8.92
  8.53
  8.17
  7.86
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.37
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
Revenue, $m
  620
  702
  789
  880
  977
  1,078
  1,184
  1,295
  1,411
  1,531
  1,656
  1,786
  1,921
  2,062
  2,208
  2,359
  2,517
  2,681
  2,852
  3,030
  3,215
  3,407
  3,608
  3,818
  4,036
  4,265
  4,503
  4,752
  5,012
  5,284
Variable operating expenses, $m
  374
  423
  475
  529
  587
  647
  711
  777
  846
  918
  988
  1,066
  1,147
  1,231
  1,318
  1,408
  1,503
  1,601
  1,702
  1,808
  1,919
  2,034
  2,154
  2,279
  2,409
  2,546
  2,688
  2,837
  2,992
  3,154
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  141
  144
  147
  151
  154
  157
  161
  164
  168
  172
  175
  179
  183
  187
  191
  195
  200
  204
  209
  213
  218
  223
  228
  233
  238
  243
  248
  254
  259
  265
Total operating expenses, $m
  515
  567
  622
  680
  741
  804
  872
  941
  1,014
  1,090
  1,163
  1,245
  1,330
  1,418
  1,509
  1,603
  1,703
  1,805
  1,911
  2,021
  2,137
  2,257
  2,382
  2,512
  2,647
  2,789
  2,936
  3,091
  3,251
  3,419
Operating income, $m
  105
  135
  167
  200
  236
  274
  313
  354
  397
  442
  492
  541
  591
  644
  699
  756
  815
  877
  941
  1,008
  1,078
  1,151
  1,227
  1,306
  1,389
  1,476
  1,567
  1,661
  1,761
  1,865
EBITDA, $m
  132
  165
  200
  237
  277
  318
  361
  406
  454
  503
  554
  608
  663
  721
  781
  844
  909
  977
  1,048
  1,121
  1,198
  1,278
  1,362
  1,449
  1,540
  1,636
  1,735
  1,840
  1,949
  2,063
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
Earnings before tax, $m
  105
  134
  165
  198
  232
  269
  307
  347
  388
  432
  481
  528
  577
  628
  681
  736
  794
  854
  916
  981
  1,049
  1,120
  1,194
  1,271
  1,351
  1,436
  1,524
  1,616
  1,712
  1,813
Tax expense, $m
  28
  36
  45
  53
  63
  72
  83
  94
  105
  117
  130
  143
  156
  170
  184
  199
  214
  231
  247
  265
  283
  302
  322
  343
  365
  388
  411
  436
  462
  490
Net income, $m
  77
  98
  120
  144
  169
  196
  224
  253
  283
  315
  351
  385
  421
  458
  497
  538
  580
  623
  669
  716
  766
  817
  871
  928
  987
  1,048
  1,112
  1,180
  1,250
  1,324

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  651
  737
  828
  925
  1,026
  1,133
  1,244
  1,360
  1,482
  1,608
  1,739
  1,876
  2,018
  2,166
  2,319
  2,478
  2,644
  2,816
  2,996
  3,182
  3,377
  3,579
  3,790
  4,010
  4,240
  4,480
  4,730
  4,991
  5,265
  5,551
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  651
  737
  828
  925
  1,026
  1,133
  1,244
  1,360
  1,482
  1,608
  1,739
  1,876
  2,018
  2,166
  2,319
  2,478
  2,644
  2,816
  2,996
  3,182
  3,377
  3,579
  3,790
  4,010
  4,240
  4,480
  4,730
  4,991
  5,265
  5,551
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.952
  0.953
  0.953
  0.951
  0.952
  0.951
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
  0.952
Average production assets, $m
  214
  242
  272
  304
  337
  372
  409
  447
  487
  528
  571
  616
  663
  711
  762
  814
  868
  925
  984
  1,045
  1,109
  1,176
  1,245
  1,317
  1,393
  1,471
  1,553
  1,639
  1,729
  1,823
Working capital, $m
  151
  171
  192
  215
  238
  263
  289
  316
  344
  374
  404
  436
  469
  503
  539
  576
  614
  654
  696
  739
  784
  831
  880
  932
  985
  1,041
  1,099
  1,159
  1,223
  1,289
Total debt, $m
  17
  34
  52
  72
  93
  114
  137
  160
  185
  211
  237
  265
  294
  324
  355
  387
  421
  456
  492
  530
  570
  611
  654
  698
  745
  794
  844
  898
  953
  1,011
Total liabilities, $m
  132
  150
  168
  188
  208
  230
  253
  276
  301
  326
  353
  381
  410
  440
  471
  503
  537
  572
  608
  646
  685
  727
  769
  814
  861
  909
  960
  1,013
  1,069
  1,127
Total equity, $m
  519
  588
  660
  737
  818
  903
  991
  1,084
  1,181
  1,282
  1,386
  1,495
  1,608
  1,726
  1,848
  1,975
  2,107
  2,245
  2,388
  2,536
  2,691
  2,853
  3,021
  3,196
  3,379
  3,570
  3,770
  3,978
  4,196
  4,424
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  651
  738
  828
  925
  1,026
  1,133
  1,244
  1,360
  1,482
  1,608
  1,739
  1,876
  2,018
  2,166
  2,319
  2,478
  2,644
  2,817
  2,996
  3,182
  3,376
  3,580
  3,790
  4,010
  4,240
  4,479
  4,730
  4,991
  5,265
  5,551
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.030
  0.060
  0.080
  0.100
  0.110
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.230
  0.230
  0.230
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797
  0.797

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  77
  98
  120
  144
  169
  196
  224
  253
  283
  315
  351
  385
  421
  458
  497
  538
  580
  623
  669
  716
  766
  817
  871
  928
  987
  1,048
  1,112
  1,180
  1,250
  1,324
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  27
  30
  33
  37
  40
  44
  48
  52
  57
  61
  62
  67
  72
  77
  83
  88
  94
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
Funds from operations, $m
  104
  128
  154
  181
  210
  240
  272
  305
  340
  376
  413
  452
  493
  536
  580
  626
  674
  724
  776
  830
  886
  945
  1,007
  1,071
  1,138
  1,208
  1,281
  1,358
  1,438
  1,522
Change in working capital, $m
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  63
  66
Cash from operations, $m
  85
  108
  133
  159
  186
  216
  246
  278
  312
  347
  382
  421
  460
  501
  544
  589
  635
  684
  734
  787
  841
  898
  958
  1,020
  1,085
  1,152
  1,223
  1,297
  1,374
  1,455
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -33
  -37
  -40
  -44
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -107
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -135
  -143
  -151
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -188
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -62
  -66
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -120
  -127
  -135
  -142
  -151
  -160
  -168
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -255
  -268
  -282
Free cash flow, $m
  38
  57
  76
  97
  120
  144
  169
  196
  224
  253
  282
  314
  347
  381
  417
  454
  493
  533
  575
  618
  664
  711
  761
  812
  866
  922
  981
  1,042
  1,106
  1,174
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  17
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  17
  17
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  55
  74
  95
  117
  141
  166
  192
  219
  248
  278
  309
  341
  375
  411
  448
  486
  526
  568
  611
  656
  703
  752
  803
  857
  913
  971
  1,032
  1,095
  1,162
  1,232
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -122
  -127
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -208
  -218
  -228
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  37
  6
  22
  40
  60
  81
  103
  127
  151
  178
  204
  232
  262
  293
  326
  359
  394
  430
  468
  507
  548
  591
  635
  681
  730
  780
  832
  887
  944
  1,004
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  35
  5
  19
  33
  46
  59
  70
  79
  87
  93
  97
  99
  100
  98
  96
  91
  86
  79
  72
  64
  57
  49
  42
  35
  28
  23
  18
  14
  10
  8
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

SodaStream International Ltd. is a sparkling water company. The Company manufactures, distributes and sells home beverage carbonation systems, which enable consumers to transform ordinary tap water into sparkling water and flavored sparkling water. The Company's segments include The Americas, Western Europe, Asia-Pacific, and Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEMEA). The Americas segment consists of the United States, Canada and other markets in North America, Central America and South America, which are influenced by the consumption culture of the United States. The Western Europe segment consists of its markets in Western and Northern Europe, which are characterized by high price levels. Its Asia-Pacific segment consists of its markets in Australia and New Zealand, together with other markets in East Asia, including Japan and South Korea. The CEMEA segment consists of its markets in Central and Eastern Europe, Israel and South Africa.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SodaStream International (SODA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 69.5
Price to Sales 6.4
Price to Book 8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 37.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 56.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -48.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -9.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 53
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 9.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.9%
Return On Total Capital 11.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Return On Equity 12.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.5%
EBITDA Margin 15.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.1%
Operating Margin 11.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Net Profit Margin 9.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

SODA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SODA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $543.371 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SodaStream International. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of SodaStream International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SODA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SODA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SodaStream International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SodaStream International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SODA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $138 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SODA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for SodaStream International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SodaStream International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SODA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SODA are equal to 34.5%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SodaStream International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SODA is equal to 24.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $501.176 million for SodaStream International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22.677 million for SodaStream International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SodaStream International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ [$$] Perella Weinberg hires bankers for IPO   [Sep-27-18 05:05AM  Financial Times]
▶ Want Even Cheaper Seltzer? Some Fanatics Hack Their SodaStream Machines   [Sep-20-18 12:48PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Who Just Made the Better Deal: Coke or Pepsi?   [Sep-16-18 02:12PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why SodaStream Stock Gained 63.5% in August   [Sep-11-18 09:07AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Pepsi Is Overpaying for SodaStream   [Aug-24-18 07:26PM  Barrons.com]
▶ The Score: The Business Week in 7 Stocks   [05:29PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ 4 Sector ETFs to Tap at New Highs   [10:50AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ SodaStream Gets Snapped Up by Pepsi   [10:13AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Pepsi Gets Even Bubblier With SodaStream   [Aug-21-18 10:26PM  Motley Fool]
▶ US Markets Green Tuesday   [01:28PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Pepsi and SodaStream   [Aug-20-18 10:29PM  Bloomberg]
▶ [$$] PepsiCo Buys Seltzer Rival That Vilified It   [07:41PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Jim Cramer: The Great Ones Disrupt Their Own   [07:01PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ 3 Stocks Advance on Monday   [05:49PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Pepsi and SodaStream   [05:27PM  Bloomberg]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [05:00PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Dow Leads Gains as Stocks End Higher   [04:08PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ PepsiCo Is Buying SodaStream for $3.2 Billion   [02:21PM  Meredith Videos]
▶ Pepsi Buying SodaStream For $3.2B   [11:42AM  Bloomberg]
▶ [$$] Why Pepsi Is Right to Splurge on SodaStream   [10:58AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ PepsiCo buys SodaStream for $3.2 billion   [10:08AM  Associated Press]
▶ Pepsi Buying SodaStream For $3.2B   [10:04AM  Bloomberg]

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