Intrinsic value of Sohu.com Limited - SOHU

Previous Close

$13.81

  Intrinsic Value

$13.66

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-1%

Previous close

$13.81

 
Intrinsic value

$13.66

 
Up/down potential

-1%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SOHU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.60
  19.94
  18.45
  17.10
  15.89
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.15
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
Revenue, $m
  2,263
  2,714
  3,215
  3,765
  4,363
  5,009
  5,701
  6,439
  7,221
  8,046
  8,914
  9,824
  10,776
  11,770
  12,805
  13,883
  15,004
  16,170
  17,381
  18,640
  19,948
  21,308
  22,721
  24,192
  25,722
  27,314
  28,973
  30,701
  32,503
  34,382
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,422
  2,903
  3,436
  4,022
  4,660
  5,348
  6,086
  6,873
  7,706
  8,586
  9,502
  10,472
  11,486
  12,545
  13,649
  14,798
  15,993
  17,235
  18,526
  19,868
  21,263
  22,712
  24,219
  25,786
  27,417
  29,114
  30,882
  32,724
  34,645
  36,648
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,422
  2,903
  3,436
  4,022
  4,660
  5,348
  6,086
  6,873
  7,706
  8,586
  9,502
  10,472
  11,486
  12,545
  13,649
  14,798
  15,993
  17,235
  18,526
  19,868
  21,263
  22,712
  24,219
  25,786
  27,417
  29,114
  30,882
  32,724
  34,645
  36,648
Operating income, $m
  -159
  -188
  -221
  -258
  -297
  -340
  -385
  -434
  -485
  -540
  -587
  -647
  -710
  -776
  -844
  -915
  -989
  -1,066
  -1,145
  -1,228
  -1,314
  -1,404
  -1,497
  -1,594
  -1,695
  -1,800
  -1,909
  -2,023
  -2,142
  -2,266
EBITDA, $m
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -89
  -95
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -139
  -148
  -156
  -166
  -175
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  10
  7
  34
  64
  97
  133
  171
  213
  257
  304
  354
  406
  460
  517
  577
  639
  704
  771
  841
  914
  989
  1,068
  1,149
  1,234
  1,322
  1,414
  1,510
  1,609
  1,713
  1,821
Earnings before tax, $m
  -169
  -195
  -255
  -321
  -394
  -472
  -556
  -647
  -742
  -844
  -941
  -1,053
  -1,170
  -1,293
  -1,421
  -1,554
  -1,692
  -1,836
  -1,986
  -2,142
  -2,304
  -2,472
  -2,646
  -2,828
  -3,017
  -3,214
  -3,419
  -3,632
  -3,855
  -4,087
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -169
  -195
  -255
  -321
  -394
  -472
  -556
  -647
  -742
  -844
  -941
  -1,053
  -1,170
  -1,293
  -1,421
  -1,554
  -1,692
  -1,836
  -1,986
  -2,142
  -2,304
  -2,472
  -2,646
  -2,828
  -3,017
  -3,214
  -3,419
  -3,632
  -3,855
  -4,087

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,794
  3,351
  3,969
  4,648
  5,386
  6,184
  7,038
  7,949
  8,915
  9,934
  11,005
  12,129
  13,304
  14,530
  15,809
  17,139
  18,524
  19,963
  21,458
  23,012
  24,627
  26,306
  28,051
  29,866
  31,755
  33,721
  35,769
  37,903
  40,127
  42,447
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,794
  3,351
  3,969
  4,648
  5,386
  6,184
  7,038
  7,949
  8,915
  9,934
  11,005
  12,129
  13,304
  14,530
  15,809
  17,139
  18,524
  19,963
  21,458
  23,012
  24,627
  26,306
  28,051
  29,866
  31,755
  33,721
  35,769
  37,903
  40,127
  42,447
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
  0.810
Average production assets, $m
  688
  825
  977
  1,144
  1,326
  1,523
  1,733
  1,957
  2,195
  2,446
  2,710
  2,987
  3,276
  3,578
  3,893
  4,220
  4,561
  4,916
  5,284
  5,667
  6,064
  6,478
  6,907
  7,354
  7,819
  8,304
  8,808
  9,333
  9,881
  10,452
Working capital, $m
  -792
  -950
  -1,125
  -1,318
  -1,527
  -1,753
  -1,995
  -2,254
  -2,527
  -2,816
  -3,120
  -3,438
  -3,772
  -4,119
  -4,482
  -4,859
  -5,251
  -5,659
  -6,083
  -6,524
  -6,982
  -7,458
  -7,953
  -8,467
  -9,003
  -9,560
  -10,141
  -10,745
  -11,376
  -12,034
Total debt, $m
  121
  622
  1,178
  1,789
  2,454
  3,172
  3,941
  4,760
  5,629
  6,546
  7,511
  8,522
  9,580
  10,684
  11,834
  13,032
  14,277
  15,573
  16,919
  18,317
  19,771
  21,282
  22,852
  24,486
  26,186
  27,956
  29,799
  31,719
  33,721
  35,809
Total liabilities, $m
  2,514
  3,016
  3,572
  4,183
  4,848
  5,565
  6,334
  7,154
  8,023
  8,940
  9,905
  10,916
  11,973
  13,077
  14,228
  15,425
  16,671
  17,966
  19,312
  20,711
  22,164
  23,675
  25,246
  26,880
  28,580
  30,349
  32,192
  34,113
  36,115
  38,203
Total equity, $m
  279
  335
  397
  465
  539
  618
  704
  795
  891
  993
  1,101
  1,213
  1,330
  1,453
  1,581
  1,714
  1,852
  1,996
  2,146
  2,301
  2,463
  2,631
  2,805
  2,987
  3,176
  3,372
  3,577
  3,790
  4,013
  4,245
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,793
  3,351
  3,969
  4,648
  5,387
  6,183
  7,038
  7,949
  8,914
  9,933
  11,006
  12,129
  13,303
  14,530
  15,809
  17,139
  18,523
  19,962
  21,458
  23,012
  24,627
  26,306
  28,051
  29,867
  31,756
  33,721
  35,769
  37,903
  40,128
  42,448
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.430
  1.860
  2.970
  3.850
  4.560
  5.130
  5.600
  5.990
  6.310
  6.590
  6.820
  7.030
  7.200
  7.350
  7.490
  7.600
  7.710
  7.800
  7.880
  7.960
  8.030
  8.090
  8.150
  8.200
  8.250
  8.290
  8.330
  8.370
  8.400
  8.440
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -169
  -195
  -255
  -321
  -394
  -472
  -556
  -647
  -742
  -844
  -941
  -1,053
  -1,170
  -1,293
  -1,421
  -1,554
  -1,692
  -1,836
  -1,986
  -2,142
  -2,304
  -2,472
  -2,646
  -2,828
  -3,017
  -3,214
  -3,419
  -3,632
  -3,855
  -4,087
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  147
  175
  205
  238
  275
  314
  356
  401
  449
  499
  542
  597
  655
  716
  779
  844
  912
  983
  1,057
  1,133
  1,213
  1,296
  1,381
  1,471
  1,564
  1,661
  1,762
  1,867
  1,976
  2,090
Funds from operations, $m
  -21
  -20
  -50
  -83
  -119
  -158
  -200
  -246
  -294
  -345
  -399
  -456
  -515
  -577
  -642
  -710
  -780
  -853
  -929
  -1,009
  -1,091
  -1,176
  -1,265
  -1,357
  -1,453
  -1,553
  -1,657
  -1,766
  -1,878
  -1,996
Change in working capital, $m
  -141
  -158
  -175
  -192
  -209
  -226
  -242
  -258
  -274
  -289
  -304
  -319
  -333
  -348
  -362
  -377
  -392
  -408
  -424
  -441
  -458
  -476
  -495
  -515
  -535
  -557
  -581
  -605
  -631
  -658
Cash from operations, $m
  119
  138
  125
  110
  91
  68
  42
  13
  -20
  -56
  -95
  -137
  -182
  -230
  -280
  -333
  -388
  -445
  -506
  -568
  -633
  -700
  -770
  -843
  -918
  -996
  -1,077
  -1,161
  -1,248
  -1,338
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -113
  -138
  -165
  -195
  -229
  -265
  -305
  -347
  -391
  -439
  -489
  -542
  -597
  -655
  -716
  -779
  -844
  -912
  -983
  -1,057
  -1,133
  -1,213
  -1,296
  -1,381
  -1,471
  -1,564
  -1,661
  -1,762
  -1,867
  -1,976
New CAPEX, $m
  -123
  -137
  -152
  -167
  -182
  -196
  -210
  -224
  -238
  -251
  -264
  -277
  -289
  -302
  -315
  -328
  -341
  -354
  -368
  -383
  -398
  -413
  -430
  -447
  -465
  -484
  -504
  -525
  -548
  -571
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -236
  -275
  -317
  -362
  -411
  -461
  -515
  -571
  -629
  -690
  -753
  -819
  -886
  -957
  -1,031
  -1,107
  -1,185
  -1,266
  -1,351
  -1,440
  -1,531
  -1,626
  -1,726
  -1,828
  -1,936
  -2,048
  -2,165
  -2,287
  -2,415
  -2,547
Free cash flow, $m
  -116
  -137
  -192
  -253
  -320
  -394
  -473
  -558
  -649
  -746
  -848
  -956
  -1,069
  -1,187
  -1,310
  -1,439
  -1,573
  -1,712
  -1,857
  -2,007
  -2,164
  -2,326
  -2,495
  -2,671
  -2,854
  -3,044
  -3,242
  -3,448
  -3,662
  -3,886
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -63
  501
  556
  611
  665
  718
  769
  820
  869
  917
  964
  1,011
  1,058
  1,104
  1,150
  1,198
  1,246
  1,295
  1,346
  1,399
  1,454
  1,511
  1,571
  1,634
  1,700
  1,770
  1,843
  1,920
  2,002
  2,088
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  729
  251
  317
  389
  467
  552
  642
  738
  839
  946
  1,048
  1,165
  1,288
  1,416
  1,549
  1,687
  1,831
  1,980
  2,136
  2,297
  2,465
  2,640
  2,821
  3,010
  3,206
  3,411
  3,624
  3,846
  4,077
  4,319
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  666
  752
  873
  1,000
  1,132
  1,270
  1,411
  1,558
  1,708
  1,863
  2,012
  2,176
  2,346
  2,520
  2,699
  2,885
  3,077
  3,275
  3,482
  3,696
  3,919
  4,151
  4,392
  4,644
  4,906
  5,181
  5,467
  5,766
  6,079
  6,407
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  549
  615
  681
  747
  812
  876
  938
  999
  1,058
  1,117
  1,164
  1,221
  1,277
  1,333
  1,389
  1,446
  1,504
  1,563
  1,625
  1,689
  1,755
  1,824
  1,896
  1,972
  2,052
  2,136
  2,225
  2,318
  2,417
  2,521
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -729
  -251
  -317
  -389
  -467
  -552
  -642
  -738
  -839
  -946
  -1,048
  -1,165
  -1,288
  -1,416
  -1,549
  -1,687
  -1,831
  -1,980
  -2,136
  -2,297
  -2,465
  -2,640
  -2,821
  -3,010
  -3,206
  -3,411
  -3,624
  -3,846
  -4,077
  -4,319
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,032
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  852
  364
  364
  358
  345
  324
  296
  261
  220
  171
  116
  55
  -11
  -83
  -160
  -241
  -327
  -417
  -511
  -609
  -710
  -816
  -925
  -1,037
  -1,154
  -1,274
  -1,399
  -1,527
  -1,660
  -1,798
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  817
  333
  317
  295
  267
  235
  200
  163
  126
  90
  55
  24
  -4
  -28
  -47
  -61
  -71
  -77
  -79
  -77
  -73
  -68
  -61
  -53
  -45
  -37
  -30
  -24
  -18
  -14
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  22.2
  9.6
  4.0
  1.7
  0.7
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Sohu.com Inc. (Sohu) is an online media, search and game service company, which is engaged in providing online products and services on personal computers (PCs) and mobile devices in the People's Republic of China (the PRC). The Company operates through three segments: the Sohu segment; the Sogou segment, and the Changyou segment. The Sohu segment's business is the brand advertising business, which offers to users, over its matrices of Chinese language online media, various content, products and services across multiple Internet-enabled devices, such as PCs, mobile phones and tablets. The search and search-related business primarily offers advertisers pay-for-click services, as well as online marketing services on Web directories operated by Sogou. Changyou's business lines consist of the online game business; the platform channel business, which consists primarily of online advertising and also includes Internet value-added services (IVAS), and the cinema advertising business.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sohu.com Limited (SOHU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.4
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 2.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -8.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -14.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage -93
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -7.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -5%
Return On Total Capital -17.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.2%
Return On Equity -20%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.4%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54.2%
EBITDA Margin 6.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Operating Margin -7.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.1%
Pre-Tax Margin -5.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Net Profit Margin -13.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.7%
Effective Tax Rate -22.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

SOHU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SOHU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1861 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sohu.com Limited. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Sohu.com Limited. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SOHU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 21.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SOHU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sohu.com Limited, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sohu.com Limited.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SOHU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 107.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SOHU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Sohu.com Limited.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sohu.com Limited. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SOHU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SOHU are equal to 30.4%.

Life of production assets of 2.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sohu.com Limited operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SOHU is equal to -35%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $750.634 million for Sohu.com Limited - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.917 million for Sohu.com Limited is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sohu.com Limited at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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