Intrinsic value of Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A - SOI

Previous Close

$13.13

  Intrinsic Value

$146.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$13.13

 
Intrinsic value

$146.28

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SOI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  108
  167
  249
  362
  510
  701
  941
  1,236
  1,590
  2,009
  2,494
  3,049
  3,676
  4,373
  5,142
  5,981
  6,890
  7,867
  8,909
  10,017
  11,187
  12,420
  13,714
  15,068
  16,482
  17,957
  19,493
  21,091
  22,753
  24,480
Variable operating expenses, $m
  58
  89
  131
  190
  267
  366
  490
  643
  827
  1,044
  1,293
  1,581
  1,906
  2,268
  2,666
  3,101
  3,573
  4,079
  4,620
  5,194
  5,801
  6,440
  7,111
  7,813
  8,546
  9,311
  10,107
  10,936
  11,798
  12,693
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
Total operating expenses, $m
  63
  94
  136
  195
  273
  372
  496
  649
  833
  1,050
  1,299
  1,587
  1,913
  2,275
  2,673
  3,108
  3,580
  4,086
  4,628
  5,202
  5,809
  6,448
  7,119
  7,821
  8,555
  9,320
  10,116
  10,945
  11,807
  12,703
Operating income, $m
  45
  73
  112
  166
  238
  330
  445
  587
  757
  959
  1,195
  1,462
  1,763
  2,099
  2,469
  2,873
  3,310
  3,780
  4,282
  4,815
  5,379
  5,972
  6,595
  7,247
  7,928
  8,637
  9,377
  10,146
  10,946
  11,777
EBITDA, $m
  57
  90
  137
  202
  287
  396
  534
  702
  905
  1,145
  1,423
  1,741
  2,100
  2,499
  2,940
  3,421
  3,941
  4,501
  5,098
  5,733
  6,403
  7,110
  7,851
  8,627
  9,437
  10,282
  11,162
  12,078
  13,030
  14,020
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  6
  14
  26
  43
  64
  92
  127
  170
  221
  282
  352
  433
  524
  625
  737
  859
  991
  1,132
  1,284
  1,445
  1,615
  1,793
  1,981
  2,178
  2,383
  2,597
  2,820
  3,052
  3,294
Earnings before tax, $m
  45
  67
  98
  140
  195
  265
  353
  460
  588
  737
  913
  1,109
  1,330
  1,575
  1,844
  2,136
  2,452
  2,790
  3,150
  3,531
  3,934
  4,358
  4,801
  5,265
  5,750
  6,254
  6,779
  7,326
  7,894
  8,484
Tax expense, $m
  12
  18
  26
  38
  53
  72
  95
  124
  159
  199
  246
  300
  359
  425
  498
  577
  662
  753
  850
  953
  1,062
  1,177
  1,296
  1,422
  1,552
  1,689
  1,830
  1,978
  2,131
  2,291
Net income, $m
  33
  49
  71
  102
  142
  194
  258
  336
  429
  538
  666
  810
  971
  1,150
  1,346
  1,559
  1,790
  2,036
  2,299
  2,578
  2,872
  3,181
  3,505
  3,844
  4,197
  4,566
  4,949
  5,348
  5,762
  6,193

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  394
  608
  909
  1,319
  1,861
  2,559
  3,435
  4,510
  5,804
  7,331
  9,103
  11,129
  13,414
  15,960
  18,767
  21,830
  25,147
  28,710
  32,516
  36,558
  40,830
  45,329
  50,050
  54,993
  60,155
  65,538
  71,143
  76,976
  83,040
  89,344
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  394
  608
  909
  1,319
  1,861
  2,559
  3,435
  4,510
  5,804
  7,331
  9,103
  11,129
  13,414
  15,960
  18,767
  21,830
  25,147
  28,710
  32,516
  36,558
  40,830
  45,329
  50,050
  54,993
  60,155
  65,538
  71,143
  76,976
  83,040
  89,344
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.274
  0.275
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
  0.274
Average production assets, $m
  180
  278
  415
  603
  850
  1,169
  1,569
  2,060
  2,651
  3,348
  4,158
  5,083
  6,127
  7,290
  8,572
  9,971
  11,486
  13,114
  14,852
  16,698
  18,649
  20,704
  22,861
  25,118
  27,476
  29,935
  32,495
  35,159
  37,929
  40,808
Working capital, $m
  6
  9
  14
  20
  28
  39
  52
  68
  87
  110
  137
  168
  202
  241
  283
  329
  379
  433
  490
  551
  615
  683
  754
  829
  907
  988
  1,072
  1,160
  1,251
  1,346
Total debt, $m
  99
  242
  441
  713
  1,073
  1,535
  2,116
  2,829
  3,686
  4,699
  5,874
  7,217
  8,732
  10,420
  12,281
  14,312
  16,511
  18,873
  21,397
  24,076
  26,909
  29,891
  33,022
  36,299
  39,721
  43,290
  47,007
  50,874
  54,894
  59,073
Total liabilities, $m
  261
  403
  603
  875
  1,234
  1,697
  2,277
  2,990
  3,848
  4,860
  6,035
  7,379
  8,894
  10,582
  12,442
  14,473
  16,672
  19,035
  21,558
  24,238
  27,070
  30,053
  33,183
  36,460
  39,883
  43,451
  47,168
  51,035
  55,056
  59,235
Total equity, $m
  133
  205
  306
  445
  627
  862
  1,158
  1,520
  1,956
  2,470
  3,068
  3,751
  4,521
  5,379
  6,324
  7,357
  8,474
  9,675
  10,958
  12,320
  13,760
  15,276
  16,867
  18,532
  20,272
  22,086
  23,975
  25,941
  27,985
  30,109
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  394
  608
  909
  1,320
  1,861
  2,559
  3,435
  4,510
  5,804
  7,330
  9,103
  11,130
  13,415
  15,961
  18,766
  21,830
  25,146
  28,710
  32,516
  36,558
  40,830
  45,329
  50,050
  54,992
  60,155
  65,537
  71,143
  76,976
  83,041
  89,344
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.750
  1.180
  1.440
  1.600
  1.710
  1.780
  1.830
  1.860
  1.880
  1.900
  1.910
  1.920
  1.930
  1.940
  1.940
  1.950
  1.950
  1.950
  1.950
  1.950
  1.960
  1.960
  1.960
  1.960
  1.960
  1.960
  1.960
  1.960
  1.960
  1.960
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337
  0.337

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  33
  49
  71
  102
  142
  194
  258
  336
  429
  538
  666
  810
  971
  1,150
  1,346
  1,559
  1,790
  2,036
  2,299
  2,578
  2,872
  3,181
  3,505
  3,844
  4,197
  4,566
  4,949
  5,348
  5,762
  6,193
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  18
  25
  35
  49
  66
  88
  115
  148
  186
  228
  279
  337
  401
  471
  548
  631
  721
  816
  917
  1,025
  1,138
  1,256
  1,380
  1,510
  1,645
  1,785
  1,932
  2,084
  2,242
Funds from operations, $m
  45
  66
  97
  137
  191
  260
  346
  451
  577
  725
  895
  1,089
  1,308
  1,550
  1,817
  2,107
  2,421
  2,757
  3,115
  3,495
  3,897
  4,319
  4,761
  5,224
  5,707
  6,210
  6,734
  7,280
  7,846
  8,435
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  11
  13
  16
  19
  23
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
Cash from operations, $m
  42
  63
  92
  131
  183
  250
  333
  435
  557
  702
  868
  1,059
  1,273
  1,512
  1,775
  2,061
  2,371
  2,703
  3,058
  3,435
  3,832
  4,251
  4,690
  5,149
  5,629
  6,129
  6,650
  7,192
  7,755
  8,340
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -23
  -33
  -47
  -64
  -86
  -113
  -146
  -184
  -228
  -279
  -337
  -401
  -471
  -548
  -631
  -721
  -816
  -917
  -1,025
  -1,138
  -1,256
  -1,380
  -1,510
  -1,645
  -1,785
  -1,932
  -2,084
New CAPEX, $m
  -68
  -98
  -138
  -187
  -248
  -319
  -400
  -491
  -591
  -697
  -810
  -926
  -1,044
  -1,163
  -1,282
  -1,399
  -1,515
  -1,628
  -1,738
  -1,846
  -1,951
  -2,055
  -2,157
  -2,257
  -2,358
  -2,459
  -2,561
  -2,664
  -2,770
  -2,879
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -74
  -108
  -153
  -210
  -281
  -366
  -464
  -577
  -704
  -843
  -994
  -1,154
  -1,323
  -1,500
  -1,683
  -1,870
  -2,063
  -2,259
  -2,459
  -2,662
  -2,868
  -3,080
  -3,295
  -3,513
  -3,738
  -3,969
  -4,206
  -4,449
  -4,702
  -4,963
Free cash flow, $m
  -32
  -45
  -61
  -79
  -98
  -116
  -131
  -142
  -147
  -141
  -126
  -95
  -50
  12
  92
  191
  308
  444
  599
  772
  963
  1,171
  1,396
  1,636
  1,891
  2,161
  2,445
  2,742
  3,053
  3,377
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  99
  142
  200
  272
  359
  463
  581
  713
  858
  1,012
  1,175
  1,343
  1,515
  1,688
  1,861
  2,031
  2,199
  2,363
  2,523
  2,680
  2,833
  2,983
  3,130
  3,277
  3,423
  3,569
  3,717
  3,867
  4,021
  4,179
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  18
  24
  30
  36
  40
  41
  38
  27
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  117
  166
  230
  308
  399
  504
  619
  740
  865
  1,012
  1,175
  1,343
  1,515
  1,688
  1,861
  2,031
  2,199
  2,363
  2,523
  2,680
  2,833
  2,983
  3,130
  3,277
  3,423
  3,569
  3,717
  3,867
  4,021
  4,179
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  85
  121
  169
  229
  302
  388
  487
  597
  718
  871
  1,050
  1,248
  1,465
  1,700
  1,953
  2,222
  2,507
  2,807
  3,122
  3,452
  3,796
  4,154
  4,526
  4,913
  5,314
  5,730
  6,161
  6,609
  7,074
  7,556
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -50
  -72
  -102
  -138
  -183
  -235
  -295
  -362
  -436
  -515
  -597
  -683
  -770
  -858
  -946
  -1,032
  -1,118
  -1,201
  -1,282
  -1,362
  -1,440
  -1,516
  -1,591
  -1,666
  -1,740
  -1,814
  -1,889
  -1,966
  -2,044
  -2,124
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  78
  49
  67
  91
  119
  153
  192
  235
  282
  356
  452
  565
  695
  842
  1,007
  1,189
  1,389
  1,606
  1,840
  2,090
  2,356
  2,638
  2,935
  3,247
  3,574
  3,916
  4,272
  4,644
  5,030
  5,432
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  75
  45
  59
  75
  93
  111
  130
  147
  162
  187
  215
  241
  264
  283
  296
  302
  302
  296
  283
  266
  244
  219
  192
  165
  139
  114
  92
  72
  55
  41
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.8
  87.3
  82.9
  79.5
  77.0
  75.3
  74.1
  73.5
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4
  73.4

Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure, Inc. manufactures and provides its mobile proppant management systems that unload, store and deliver proppant at oil and natural gas well sites. The Company offers its services to oil and natural gas exploration and production (E&P) companies, as well as oilfield service companies. Its mobile proppant system is designed to address the challenges associated with transferring large quantities of proppant to the well site, including the cost and management of last mile logistics. Its systems provide 2.5 million pounds of proppant storage capacity. The Company manufactures its systems at its facility in Early, Texas, The Company’s system provides Streamlined last mile logistics and Improved execution to meet completion designs. Its systems provide triple the storage capacity, such as trailer-mounted, hydraulically powered storage bins. Its integrated PropView system delivers real-time proppant inventory and consumption levels.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A (SOI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 184.8
Price to Sales 30.8
Price to Book 7.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 110.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -92.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 28.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -60.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 4.2%
Total Debt to Equity 4.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Total Capital 4.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Equity 4.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 38.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.3%
Operating Margin 16.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 16.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Net Profit Margin 16.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

SOI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SOI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $67.395 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SOI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SOI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SOI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $5 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SOI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SOI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SOI are equal to 166.7%.

Life of production assets of 18.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SOI is equal to 5.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $125.292 million for Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.6 million for Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Solaris Oilfield Infrastructure Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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