Intrinsic value of SORL Auto Parts - SORL

Previous Close

$3.32

  Intrinsic Value

$42.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$3.32

 
Intrinsic value

$42.26

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SORL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  44.10
  40.19
  36.67
  33.50
  30.65
  28.09
  25.78
  23.70
  21.83
  20.15
  18.63
  17.27
  16.04
  14.94
  13.94
  13.05
  12.25
  11.52
  10.87
  10.28
  9.75
  9.28
  8.85
  8.47
  8.12
  7.81
  7.53
  7.27
  7.05
  6.84
Revenue, $m
  563
  789
  1,078
  1,439
  1,881
  2,409
  3,030
  3,748
  4,566
  5,486
  6,509
  7,633
  8,857
  10,180
  11,600
  13,114
  14,720
  16,416
  18,200
  20,071
  22,029
  24,073
  26,203
  28,421
  30,729
  33,128
  35,621
  38,212
  40,905
  43,703
Variable operating expenses, $m
  500
  701
  957
  1,277
  1,668
  2,136
  2,687
  3,323
  4,048
  4,863
  5,768
  6,764
  7,849
  9,022
  10,280
  11,621
  13,044
  14,547
  16,128
  17,787
  19,521
  21,333
  23,221
  25,186
  27,231
  29,357
  31,567
  33,863
  36,249
  38,729
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
Total operating expenses, $m
  508
  709
  966
  1,286
  1,677
  2,145
  2,696
  3,333
  4,058
  4,873
  5,778
  6,774
  7,860
  9,033
  10,291
  11,632
  13,056
  14,559
  16,140
  17,799
  19,534
  21,346
  23,234
  25,199
  27,245
  29,371
  31,581
  33,878
  36,264
  38,744
Operating income, $m
  54
  80
  113
  154
  204
  264
  334
  416
  509
  613
  731
  858
  998
  1,148
  1,309
  1,481
  1,664
  1,857
  2,059
  2,272
  2,495
  2,727
  2,969
  3,221
  3,484
  3,756
  4,040
  4,335
  4,641
  4,959
EBITDA, $m
  68
  99
  138
  187
  246
  318
  402
  499
  610
  735
  873
  1,025
  1,191
  1,371
  1,563
  1,768
  1,986
  2,216
  2,458
  2,711
  2,977
  3,254
  3,543
  3,843
  4,156
  4,481
  4,819
  5,171
  5,536
  5,915
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  10
  20
  33
  49
  69
  94
  124
  159
  200
  246
  298
  356
  420
  489
  564
  644
  730
  821
  917
  1,018
  1,124
  1,234
  1,350
  1,470
  1,596
  1,726
  1,862
  2,003
  2,150
  2,302
Earnings before tax, $m
  44
  60
  80
  105
  134
  169
  210
  256
  308
  367
  432
  502
  578
  659
  745
  837
  934
  1,036
  1,143
  1,254
  1,371
  1,493
  1,619
  1,751
  1,888
  2,030
  2,178
  2,331
  2,491
  2,657
Tax expense, $m
  12
  16
  22
  28
  36
  46
  57
  69
  83
  99
  117
  136
  156
  178
  201
  226
  252
  280
  309
  339
  370
  403
  437
  473
  510
  548
  588
  629
  673
  717
Net income, $m
  32
  44
  58
  76
  98
  123
  153
  187
  225
  268
  316
  367
  422
  481
  544
  611
  682
  756
  834
  916
  1,001
  1,090
  1,182
  1,278
  1,378
  1,482
  1,590
  1,702
  1,818
  1,939

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  839
  1,176
  1,607
  2,145
  2,803
  3,590
  4,516
  5,586
  6,805
  8,176
  9,700
  11,375
  13,200
  15,172
  17,288
  19,544
  21,937
  24,464
  27,123
  29,912
  32,830
  35,876
  39,051
  42,357
  45,796
  49,371
  53,087
  56,948
  60,961
  65,131
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  839
  1,176
  1,607
  2,145
  2,803
  3,590
  4,516
  5,586
  6,805
  8,176
  9,700
  11,375
  13,200
  15,172
  17,288
  19,544
  21,937
  24,464
  27,123
  29,912
  32,830
  35,876
  39,051
  42,357
  45,796
  49,371
  53,087
  56,948
  60,961
  65,131
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
  0.671
Average production assets, $m
  105
  147
  201
  268
  350
  448
  564
  697
  849
  1,020
  1,211
  1,420
  1,647
  1,894
  2,158
  2,439
  2,738
  3,053
  3,385
  3,733
  4,097
  4,477
  4,874
  5,286
  5,716
  6,162
  6,626
  7,107
  7,608
  8,129
Working capital, $m
  202
  283
  387
  517
  675
  865
  1,088
  1,346
  1,639
  1,970
  2,337
  2,740
  3,180
  3,655
  4,164
  4,708
  5,284
  5,893
  6,534
  7,205
  7,908
  8,642
  9,407
  10,203
  11,032
  11,893
  12,788
  13,718
  14,685
  15,689
Total debt, $m
  367
  604
  908
  1,286
  1,748
  2,302
  2,952
  3,705
  4,562
  5,526
  6,597
  7,775
  9,058
  10,444
  11,931
  13,517
  15,200
  16,976
  18,846
  20,806
  22,857
  24,998
  27,231
  29,555
  31,972
  34,486
  37,098
  39,812
  42,633
  45,565
Total liabilities, $m
  590
  827
  1,130
  1,508
  1,970
  2,524
  3,174
  3,927
  4,784
  5,748
  6,819
  7,997
  9,280
  10,666
  12,153
  13,739
  15,422
  17,198
  19,068
  21,028
  23,079
  25,221
  27,453
  29,777
  32,194
  34,708
  37,320
  40,034
  42,855
  45,787
Total equity, $m
  249
  349
  477
  637
  832
  1,066
  1,341
  1,659
  2,021
  2,428
  2,881
  3,378
  3,920
  4,506
  5,134
  5,805
  6,515
  7,266
  8,056
  8,884
  9,750
  10,655
  11,598
  12,580
  13,601
  14,663
  15,767
  16,914
  18,105
  19,344
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  839
  1,176
  1,607
  2,145
  2,802
  3,590
  4,515
  5,586
  6,805
  8,176
  9,700
  11,375
  13,200
  15,172
  17,287
  19,544
  21,937
  24,464
  27,124
  29,912
  32,829
  35,876
  39,051
  42,357
  45,795
  49,371
  53,087
  56,948
  60,960
  65,131
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.480
  1.730
  1.900
  2.020
  2.100
  2.160
  2.200
  2.230
  2.260
  2.280
  2.290
  2.300
  2.310
  2.320
  2.320
  2.330
  2.330
  2.340
  2.340
  2.340
  2.340
  2.350
  2.350
  2.350
  2.350
  2.350
  2.350
  2.350
  2.350
  2.360
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  32
  44
  58
  76
  98
  123
  153
  187
  225
  268
  316
  367
  422
  481
  544
  611
  682
  756
  834
  916
  1,001
  1,090
  1,182
  1,278
  1,378
  1,482
  1,590
  1,702
  1,818
  1,939
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  19
  25
  33
  43
  54
  68
  84
  101
  122
  142
  167
  194
  223
  254
  287
  322
  359
  398
  439
  482
  527
  573
  622
  672
  725
  779
  836
  895
  956
Funds from operations, $m
  46
  63
  84
  109
  141
  178
  221
  271
  327
  389
  458
  534
  616
  704
  798
  898
  1,004
  1,115
  1,232
  1,355
  1,483
  1,616
  1,755
  1,900
  2,051
  2,207
  2,369
  2,538
  2,713
  2,896
Change in working capital, $m
  62
  81
  104
  130
  158
  190
  223
  258
  294
  330
  367
  404
  440
  475
  510
  543
  576
  609
  641
  672
  703
  734
  765
  796
  828
  861
  895
  930
  967
  1,005
Cash from operations, $m
  -16
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -18
  -12
  -2
  13
  33
  59
  91
  130
  176
  229
  288
  355
  427
  507
  592
  683
  780
  883
  991
  1,104
  1,222
  1,346
  1,474
  1,608
  1,747
  1,891
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -12
  -17
  -24
  -31
  -41
  -53
  -66
  -82
  -100
  -120
  -142
  -167
  -194
  -223
  -254
  -287
  -322
  -359
  -398
  -439
  -482
  -527
  -573
  -622
  -672
  -725
  -779
  -836
  -895
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -42
  -54
  -67
  -82
  -98
  -116
  -134
  -152
  -171
  -190
  -209
  -228
  -246
  -264
  -282
  -299
  -315
  -332
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -396
  -413
  -429
  -446
  -464
  -482
  -501
  -521
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -41
  -54
  -71
  -91
  -113
  -139
  -169
  -200
  -234
  -271
  -310
  -351
  -395
  -440
  -487
  -536
  -586
  -637
  -691
  -746
  -803
  -862
  -923
  -986
  -1,051
  -1,118
  -1,189
  -1,261
  -1,337
  -1,416
Free cash flow, $m
  -56
  -73
  -91
  -111
  -131
  -151
  -170
  -187
  -201
  -212
  -219
  -221
  -219
  -211
  -199
  -181
  -158
  -131
  -99
  -63
  -23
  20
  68
  118
  171
  227
  285
  346
  410
  475
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  180
  237
  303
  378
  462
  553
  651
  752
  857
  964
  1,071
  1,178
  1,283
  1,386
  1,487
  1,586
  1,682
  1,777
  1,869
  1,961
  2,051
  2,141
  2,232
  2,324
  2,418
  2,513
  2,612
  2,715
  2,821
  2,932
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  44
  56
  70
  84
  97
  110
  122
  131
  137
  140
  137
  131
  120
  105
  84
  59
  29
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  224
  293
  373
  462
  559
  663
  773
  883
  994
  1,104
  1,208
  1,309
  1,403
  1,491
  1,571
  1,645
  1,711
  1,777
  1,869
  1,961
  2,051
  2,141
  2,232
  2,324
  2,418
  2,513
  2,612
  2,715
  2,821
  2,932
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  168
  220
  281
  351
  428
  512
  602
  696
  793
  891
  989
  1,087
  1,184
  1,280
  1,373
  1,464
  1,553
  1,646
  1,770
  1,897
  2,028
  2,162
  2,300
  2,442
  2,589
  2,740
  2,898
  3,061
  3,231
  3,407
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -76
  -100
  -128
  -160
  -195
  -234
  -275
  -318
  -362
  -407
  -452
  -498
  -542
  -586
  -628
  -670
  -711
  -751
  -790
  -828
  -867
  -905
  -943
  -982
  -1,021
  -1,062
  -1,104
  -1,147
  -1,192
  -1,239
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  92
  120
  153
  191
  233
  279
  327
  378
  431
  484
  536
  590
  642
  694
  745
  794
  842
  895
  980
  1,069
  1,161
  1,257
  1,357
  1,460
  1,567
  1,678
  1,794
  1,914
  2,039
  2,169
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  88
  110
  133
  157
  181
  202
  221
  236
  247
  254
  255
  252
  244
  233
  219
  202
  183
  165
  151
  136
  120
  104
  89
  74
  61
  49
  39
  30
  22
  16
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  73.6
  55.6
  43.3
  34.6
  28.4
  23.9
  20.5
  18.0
  16.1
  14.7
  13.6
  12.8
  12.1
  11.7
  11.4
  11.2
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1
  11.1

SORL Auto Parts, Inc., through its interests in the Ruili Group Ruian Auto Parts Co., Ltd., a Sino-foreign joint venture (Joint Venture), develops, manufactures and distributes automotive brake systems and other safety related auto parts to automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and the related aftermarket both in China and abroad. The Company operates through two segments: Commercial Vehicle Brake Systems and Passenger Vehicle Brake Systems. The Company's products are principally used in different types of commercial vehicles, such as trucks and buses, and include a range of products covering approximately 65 categories and over 2,000 specifications in automotive brake systems. The Company sells its products to approximately 70 vehicle manufacturers, including all of the primary truck manufacturers in China.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SORL Auto Parts (SORL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 3.4
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 24.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 433.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 26.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 19.4%
Interest Coverage 26
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 9.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Return On Equity 11.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.3%
EBITDA Margin 12.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Operating Margin 8.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.2%
Net Profit Margin 7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.3%
Effective Tax Rate 16%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

SORL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SORL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $390.522569 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SORL Auto Parts. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of SORL Auto Parts. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SORL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 44.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SORL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SORL Auto Parts, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SORL Auto Parts.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SORL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 89%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $8 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SORL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for SORL Auto Parts.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SORL Auto Parts. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SORL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SORL are equal to 18.6%.

Life of production assets of 8.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SORL Auto Parts operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SORL is equal to 35.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $173.165829 million for SORL Auto Parts - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 19.305 million for SORL Auto Parts is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SORL Auto Parts at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ SORL Auto Parts, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-15-17 06:45AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ When Should You Buy SORL Auto Parts Inc (SORL)?   [Sep-15-17 12:49PM  Simply Wall St.]
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