Intrinsic value of SP Plus Corporation - SP

Previous Close

$34.37

  Intrinsic Value

$331.14

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+863%

Previous close

$34.37

 
Intrinsic value

$331.14

 
Up/down potential

+863%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  48.60
  44.24
  40.32
  36.78
  33.61
  30.75
  28.17
  25.85
  23.77
  21.89
  20.20
  18.68
  17.31
  16.08
  14.97
  13.98
  13.08
  12.27
  11.54
  10.89
  10.30
  9.77
  9.29
  8.86
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.28
  7.05
Revenue, $m
  2,181
  3,147
  4,415
  6,039
  8,069
  10,549
  13,521
  17,017
  21,062
  25,672
  30,859
  36,624
  42,965
  49,875
  57,343
  65,358
  73,906
  82,975
  92,554
  102,633
  113,205
  124,266
  135,814
  147,853
  160,388
  173,428
  186,985
  201,074
  215,716
  230,932
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,027
  2,891
  4,026
  5,479
  7,295
  9,514
  12,174
  15,302
  18,921
  23,046
  27,612
  32,770
  38,444
  44,627
  51,309
  58,480
  66,129
  74,244
  82,815
  91,833
  101,293
  111,190
  121,523
  132,295
  143,511
  155,179
  167,309
  179,916
  193,017
  206,632
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  9
  9
  10
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,032
  2,896
  4,031
  5,484
  7,301
  9,520
  12,180
  15,308
  18,927
  23,052
  27,618
  32,776
  38,451
  44,634
  51,316
  58,487
  66,136
  74,251
  82,823
  91,841
  101,301
  111,198
  121,531
  132,303
  143,520
  155,188
  167,318
  179,925
  193,026
  206,642
Operating income, $m
  149
  251
  384
  555
  768
  1,029
  1,342
  1,709
  2,135
  2,620
  3,241
  3,847
  4,514
  5,241
  6,027
  6,870
  7,770
  8,724
  9,732
  10,792
  11,904
  13,068
  14,283
  15,550
  16,868
  18,240
  19,667
  21,149
  22,690
  24,290
EBITDA, $m
  241
  350
  494
  677
  906
  1,187
  1,522
  1,917
  2,374
  2,895
  3,481
  4,133
  4,850
  5,630
  6,474
  7,380
  8,346
  9,371
  10,453
  11,592
  12,787
  14,037
  15,342
  16,703
  18,119
  19,593
  21,125
  22,717
  24,372
  26,092
Interest expense (income), $m
  9
  21
  39
  64
  97
  139
  192
  256
  333
  423
  528
  647
  781
  931
  1,095
  1,273
  1,467
  1,674
  1,895
  2,130
  2,378
  2,639
  2,912
  3,198
  3,497
  3,809
  4,133
  4,470
  4,821
  5,186
  5,565
Earnings before tax, $m
  128
  211
  320
  458
  629
  838
  1,086
  1,377
  1,712
  2,092
  2,594
  3,066
  3,584
  4,147
  4,754
  5,404
  6,096
  6,829
  7,602
  8,414
  9,266
  10,156
  11,085
  12,052
  13,060
  14,107
  15,196
  16,328
  17,504
  18,726
Tax expense, $m
  35
  57
  86
  124
  170
  226
  293
  372
  462
  565
  700
  828
  968
  1,120
  1,283
  1,459
  1,646
  1,844
  2,052
  2,272
  2,502
  2,742
  2,993
  3,254
  3,526
  3,809
  4,103
  4,409
  4,726
  5,056
Net income, $m
  94
  154
  233
  334
  459
  611
  793
  1,005
  1,250
  1,527
  1,893
  2,238
  2,616
  3,027
  3,470
  3,945
  4,450
  4,985
  5,549
  6,142
  6,764
  7,414
  8,092
  8,798
  9,534
  10,298
  11,093
  11,919
  12,778
  13,670

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,593
  2,298
  3,225
  4,411
  5,894
  7,706
  9,877
  12,430
  15,385
  18,753
  22,541
  26,752
  31,384
  36,431
  41,887
  47,741
  53,985
  60,610
  67,607
  74,969
  82,692
  90,771
  99,207
  108,001
  117,157
  126,682
  136,585
  146,877
  157,572
  168,687
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,593
  2,298
  3,225
  4,411
  5,894
  7,706
  9,877
  12,430
  15,385
  18,753
  22,541
  26,752
  31,384
  36,431
  41,887
  47,741
  53,985
  60,610
  67,607
  74,969
  82,692
  90,771
  99,207
  108,001
  117,157
  126,682
  136,585
  146,877
  157,572
  168,687
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
  1.369
Average production assets, $m
  510
  736
  1,033
  1,413
  1,888
  2,469
  3,164
  3,982
  4,928
  6,007
  7,221
  8,570
  10,054
  11,671
  13,418
  15,294
  17,294
  19,416
  21,658
  24,016
  26,490
  29,078
  31,781
  34,598
  37,531
  40,582
  43,754
  47,051
  50,478
  54,038
Working capital, $m
  -105
  -151
  -212
  -290
  -387
  -506
  -649
  -817
  -1,011
  -1,232
  -1,481
  -1,758
  -2,062
  -2,394
  -2,752
  -3,137
  -3,547
  -3,983
  -4,443
  -4,926
  -5,434
  -5,965
  -6,519
  -7,097
  -7,699
  -8,325
  -8,975
  -9,652
  -10,354
  -11,085
Total debt, $m
  728
  1,191
  1,799
  2,577
  3,549
  4,738
  6,162
  7,837
  9,775
  11,985
  14,470
  17,232
  20,271
  23,582
  27,161
  31,001
  35,097
  39,443
  44,033
  48,863
  53,929
  59,229
  64,763
  70,532
  76,538
  82,786
  89,283
  96,034
  103,050
  110,341
Total liabilities, $m
  1,045
  1,508
  2,116
  2,894
  3,866
  5,055
  6,479
  8,154
  10,092
  12,302
  14,787
  17,549
  20,588
  23,899
  27,478
  31,318
  35,414
  39,760
  44,350
  49,180
  54,246
  59,546
  65,080
  70,849
  76,855
  83,103
  89,600
  96,351
  103,367
  110,658
Total equity, $m
  548
  791
  1,109
  1,518
  2,027
  2,651
  3,398
  4,276
  5,292
  6,451
  7,754
  9,203
  10,796
  12,532
  14,409
  16,423
  18,571
  20,850
  23,257
  25,789
  28,446
  31,225
  34,127
  37,152
  40,302
  43,579
  46,985
  50,526
  54,205
  58,028
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,593
  2,299
  3,225
  4,412
  5,893
  7,706
  9,877
  12,430
  15,384
  18,753
  22,541
  26,752
  31,384
  36,431
  41,887
  47,741
  53,985
  60,610
  67,607
  74,969
  82,692
  90,771
  99,207
  108,001
  117,157
  126,682
  136,585
  146,877
  157,572
  168,686
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.330
  1.510
  1.620
  1.700
  1.750
  1.790
  1.810
  1.830
  1.850
  1.860
  1.870
  1.870
  1.880
  1.880
  1.880
  1.890
  1.890
  1.890
  1.890
  1.890
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
  1.900
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344
  0.344

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  94
  154
  233
  334
  459
  611
  793
  1,005
  1,250
  1,527
  1,893
  2,238
  2,616
  3,027
  3,470
  3,945
  4,450
  4,985
  5,549
  6,142
  6,764
  7,414
  8,092
  8,798
  9,534
  10,298
  11,093
  11,919
  12,778
  13,670
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  92
  100
  110
  122
  138
  157
  181
  208
  239
  275
  241
  286
  335
  389
  447
  510
  576
  647
  722
  801
  883
  969
  1,059
  1,153
  1,251
  1,353
  1,458
  1,568
  1,683
  1,801
Funds from operations, $m
  186
  254
  343
  456
  597
  769
  973
  1,213
  1,489
  1,803
  2,134
  2,524
  2,951
  3,416
  3,917
  4,454
  5,026
  5,632
  6,271
  6,943
  7,647
  8,383
  9,151
  9,952
  10,785
  11,651
  12,552
  13,488
  14,460
  15,471
Change in working capital, $m
  -34
  -46
  -61
  -78
  -97
  -119
  -143
  -168
  -194
  -221
  -249
  -277
  -304
  -332
  -358
  -385
  -410
  -435
  -460
  -484
  -507
  -531
  -554
  -578
  -602
  -626
  -651
  -676
  -703
  -730
Cash from operations, $m
  220
  300
  404
  534
  695
  888
  1,116
  1,381
  1,683
  2,024
  2,383
  2,801
  3,256
  3,748
  4,276
  4,839
  5,437
  6,067
  6,731
  7,427
  8,154
  8,914
  9,705
  10,529
  11,386
  12,277
  13,202
  14,164
  15,163
  16,201
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -11
  -17
  -25
  -34
  -47
  -63
  -82
  -105
  -133
  -164
  -200
  -241
  -286
  -335
  -389
  -447
  -510
  -576
  -647
  -722
  -801
  -883
  -969
  -1,059
  -1,153
  -1,251
  -1,353
  -1,458
  -1,568
  -1,683
New CAPEX, $m
  -167
  -226
  -297
  -380
  -475
  -580
  -695
  -818
  -946
  -1,079
  -1,214
  -1,349
  -1,484
  -1,617
  -1,748
  -1,875
  -2,000
  -2,122
  -2,241
  -2,358
  -2,474
  -2,588
  -2,702
  -2,817
  -2,933
  -3,051
  -3,172
  -3,297
  -3,426
  -3,560
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -178
  -243
  -322
  -414
  -522
  -643
  -777
  -923
  -1,079
  -1,243
  -1,414
  -1,590
  -1,770
  -1,952
  -2,137
  -2,322
  -2,510
  -2,698
  -2,888
  -3,080
  -3,275
  -3,471
  -3,671
  -3,876
  -4,086
  -4,302
  -4,525
  -4,755
  -4,994
  -5,243
Free cash flow, $m
  41
  58
  83
  120
  173
  245
  338
  457
  604
  781
  969
  1,211
  1,486
  1,796
  2,139
  2,516
  2,926
  3,369
  3,842
  4,346
  4,880
  5,443
  6,034
  6,653
  7,300
  7,975
  8,677
  9,409
  10,169
  10,958
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  342
  462
  608
  778
  973
  1,189
  1,424
  1,675
  1,938
  2,209
  2,485
  2,763
  3,039
  3,311
  3,579
  3,841
  4,096
  4,346
  4,590
  4,830
  5,066
  5,300
  5,534
  5,769
  6,006
  6,248
  6,496
  6,752
  7,016
  7,291
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  86
  88
  85
  74
  51
  12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  428
  550
  693
  852
  1,024
  1,201
  1,424
  1,675
  1,938
  2,209
  2,485
  2,763
  3,039
  3,311
  3,579
  3,841
  4,096
  4,346
  4,590
  4,830
  5,066
  5,300
  5,534
  5,769
  6,006
  6,248
  6,496
  6,752
  7,016
  7,291
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  469
  608
  776
  972
  1,196
  1,445
  1,762
  2,132
  2,542
  2,990
  3,454
  3,973
  4,525
  5,107
  5,718
  6,357
  7,023
  7,714
  8,432
  9,176
  9,946
  10,743
  11,568
  12,422
  13,306
  14,223
  15,174
  16,160
  17,185
  18,250
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -180
  -243
  -319
  -408
  -510
  -623
  -747
  -878
  -1,016
  -1,159
  -1,303
  -1,449
  -1,593
  -1,736
  -1,877
  -2,014
  -2,148
  -2,279
  -2,407
  -2,533
  -2,657
  -2,779
  -2,902
  -3,025
  -3,150
  -3,277
  -3,407
  -3,540
  -3,679
  -3,823
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  289
  366
  457
  564
  686
  822
  1,016
  1,254
  1,526
  1,832
  2,151
  2,525
  2,931
  3,371
  3,841
  4,343
  4,875
  5,436
  6,025
  6,643
  7,289
  7,963
  8,666
  9,397
  10,157
  10,946
  11,767
  12,620
  13,505
  14,426
Discount rate, %
  7.30
  7.67
  8.05
  8.45
  8.87
  9.32
  9.78
  10.27
  10.79
  11.32
  11.89
  12.49
  13.11
  13.77
  14.45
  15.18
  15.93
  16.73
  17.57
  18.45
  19.37
  20.34
  21.35
  22.42
  23.54
  24.72
  25.96
  27.25
  28.62
  30.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  270
  315
  362
  408
  448
  482
  528
  574
  607
  626
  625
  615
  591
  554
  507
  453
  395
  336
  278
  225
  177
  136
  101
  73
  51
  35
  23
  15
  9
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  90.1
  83.8
  79.7
  77.3
  76.1
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9
  75.9

SP Plus Corporation (SP Plus) is a provider of parking management, ground transportation and other ancillary services to commercial, institutional and municipal clients in the United States, Puerto Rico and Canada. The Company's segments include Region One (Urban), Region Two (Airport transportation), Region Three and Other. Region One (Urban) encompasses its services in healthcare facilities, municipalities, including government facilities, hotels, commercial real estate, residential communities, retail, colleges and universities, as well as ancillary services such as shuttle and transportation services, valet services, taxi and livery dispatch services. Region Two (Airport transportation) encompasses its services at all major airports, as well as ancillary services, which includes shuttle and transportation services and valet services. Region Three encompasses other operating segments, including USA Parking and event planning, including shuttle and transportation services.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SP Plus Corporation (SP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 2.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 17.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 30.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 65.3%
Total Debt to Equity 72.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Return On Total Capital 4.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Equity 8.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Asset Turnover 2.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 10.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.9%
EBITDA Margin 5.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Operating Margin 3.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Net Profit Margin 1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 38.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1468 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SP Plus Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of SP Plus Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 48.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.3%, whose default value for SP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SP Plus Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SP Plus Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $5 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for SP Plus Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SP Plus Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SP are equal to 23.4%.

Life of production assets of 34.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SP Plus Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SP is equal to -4.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $368.5 million for SP Plus Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 22.784 million for SP Plus Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SP Plus Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.8 billion.

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