Intrinsic value of SPI Energy Co., Ltd. - SPI

Previous Close

$2.67

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$2.67

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  130
  133
  136
  140
  144
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  193
  201
  210
  219
  229
  239
  250
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
  329
  345
  361
  379
  397
  417
Variable operating expenses, $m
  314
  321
  330
  339
  349
  360
  373
  386
  400
  416
  432
  449
  468
  488
  509
  531
  555
  580
  606
  634
  663
  694
  727
  761
  797
  836
  876
  918
  962
  1,009
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  314
  321
  330
  339
  349
  360
  373
  386
  400
  416
  432
  449
  468
  488
  509
  531
  555
  580
  606
  634
  663
  694
  727
  761
  797
  836
  876
  918
  962
  1,009
Operating income, $m
  -185
  -189
  -194
  -199
  -205
  -212
  -219
  -227
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -299
  -312
  -326
  -340
  -356
  -372
  -389
  -408
  -427
  -447
  -468
  -491
  -514
  -539
  -565
  -593
EBITDA, $m
  -181
  -185
  -190
  -195
  -201
  -208
  -215
  -222
  -231
  -239
  -249
  -259
  -270
  -281
  -293
  -306
  -320
  -334
  -349
  -365
  -382
  -400
  -419
  -439
  -460
  -482
  -505
  -529
  -555
  -582
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  19
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  54
  57
  61
  65
Earnings before tax, $m
  -204
  -195
  -201
  -207
  -214
  -222
  -230
  -239
  -248
  -259
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -491
  -515
  -541
  -568
  -596
  -626
  -658
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -204
  -195
  -201
  -207
  -214
  -222
  -230
  -239
  -248
  -259
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -491
  -515
  -541
  -568
  -596
  -626
  -658

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  324
  331
  340
  349
  360
  372
  384
  398
  413
  429
  445
  464
  483
  503
  525
  548
  572
  598
  625
  654
  684
  716
  750
  786
  823
  862
  904
  947
  993
  1,041
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  324
  331
  340
  349
  360
  372
  384
  398
  413
  429
  445
  464
  483
  503
  525
  548
  572
  598
  625
  654
  684
  716
  750
  786
  823
  862
  904
  947
  993
  1,041
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.401
  0.402
  0.400
  0.401
  0.400
  0.401
  0.401
  0.399
  0.400
  0.399
  0.400
  0.399
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.400
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.400
  0.399
  0.400
  0.400
  0.399
  0.400
  0.400
  0.401
Average production assets, $m
  98
  100
  102
  105
  108
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  314
Working capital, $m
  -91
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -108
  -112
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -160
  -168
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -292
Total debt, $m
  68
  75
  83
  91
  101
  111
  122
  135
  148
  162
  178
  194
  211
  230
  249
  270
  292
  315
  339
  365
  393
  421
  452
  484
  517
  553
  590
  629
  671
  714
Total liabilities, $m
  291
  298
  306
  314
  324
  334
  346
  358
  371
  386
  401
  417
  435
  453
  472
  493
  515
  538
  563
  589
  616
  645
  675
  707
  741
  776
  813
  853
  894
  937
Total equity, $m
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  323
  331
  340
  349
  360
  371
  384
  398
  412
  429
  446
  463
  483
  503
  524
  548
  572
  598
  626
  654
  684
  717
  750
  786
  823
  862
  903
  948
  993
  1,041
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.100
  2.260
  2.430
  2.610
  2.800
  2.990
  3.190
  3.390
  3.590
  3.790
  3.990
  4.180
  4.370
  4.560
  4.750
  4.920
  5.100
  5.270
  5.430
  5.590
  5.740
  5.880
  6.020
  6.160
  6.290
  6.410
  6.530
  6.640
  6.750
  6.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -204
  -195
  -201
  -207
  -214
  -222
  -230
  -239
  -248
  -259
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -491
  -515
  -541
  -568
  -596
  -626
  -658
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
Funds from operations, $m
  -200
  -192
  -197
  -203
  -210
  -217
  -225
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -289
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -380
  -398
  -418
  -438
  -460
  -483
  -507
  -532
  -558
  -586
  -616
  -647
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  -198
  -190
  -195
  -200
  -207
  -214
  -222
  -230
  -239
  -249
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -296
  -309
  -324
  -339
  -355
  -372
  -390
  -409
  -429
  -450
  -473
  -496
  -521
  -547
  -574
  -603
  -633
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
Free cash flow, $m
  -203
  -195
  -201
  -207
  -214
  -221
  -230
  -238
  -248
  -258
  -269
  -281
  -294
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -387
  -405
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -491
  -516
  -541
  -568
  -597
  -627
  -658
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -128
  7
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  338
  196
  202
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  283
  295
  309
  323
  338
  354
  371
  389
  408
  428
  449
  471
  494
  519
  545
  572
  601
  631
  663
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  210
  203
  210
  217
  225
  233
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  327
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  434
  455
  478
  501
  526
  553
  580
  609
  640
  672
  706
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -338
  -196
  -202
  -208
  -215
  -223
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -309
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -371
  -389
  -408
  -428
  -449
  -471
  -494
  -519
  -545
  -572
  -601
  -631
  -663
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -331
  -189
  -193
  -198
  -204
  -211
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -289
  -302
  -316
  -330
  -346
  -362
  -380
  -398
  -417
  -438
  -459
  -482
  -506
  -531
  -558
  -585
  -615
Discount rate, %
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.20
  20.17
  21.17
  22.23
  23.34
  24.51
  25.74
  27.02
  28.37
  29.79
  31.28
  32.85
  34.49
  36.21
  38.02
  39.93
  41.92
  44.02
  46.22
  48.53
  50.96
  53.50
  56.18
  58.99
  61.94
  65.03
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -286
  -139
  -119
  -101
  -85
  -70
  -57
  -45
  -36
  -27
  -20
  -15
  -11
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  50.0
  7.1
  1.0
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

SPI Energy Co., Ltd. provides photovoltaic (PV) solutions for business, residential, government and utility customers and investors. The Company operates through solar energy products and services segment. The types of products and services in segment includes engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services, sales of PV solar system, electricity revenue under power purchase agreements, trading of PV solar components, pre-development project sales and financial service revenue. It provides a spectrum of EPC services to third-party project developers, and develops, owns and operates solar projects that sell electricity to the grid in countries, including China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Greece, Japan and Italy. The Solar projects in its portfolio include projects at all stages of development, including projects in operation, projects under construction and projects in pipeline. Its www.solarbao.com (Solarbao) is an online energy e-commerce and investment platform.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SPI Energy Co., Ltd. (SPI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.8
Price to Sales 12.2
Price to Book -100.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -36.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -20.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -26.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -22.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -211.8%
Total Debt to Equity -1082.4%
Interest Coverage -36
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -40.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.2%
Return On Total Capital -68.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -38.2%
Return On Equity -225.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -102.4%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 13.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.3%
EBITDA Margin -149.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -80.3%
Operating Margin -142.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -77.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -157.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -85.5%
Net Profit Margin -157.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -86.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

SPI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $127 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SPI Energy Co., Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of SPI Energy Co., Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 15.8%, whose default value for SPI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SPI Energy Co., Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SPI Energy Co., Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 242.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.7% for SPI Energy Co., Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SPI Energy Co., Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPI are equal to 75.3%.

Life of production assets of 28.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SPI Energy Co., Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPI is equal to -70.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-101.745 million for SPI Energy Co., Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.263 million for SPI Energy Co., Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SPI Energy Co., Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
JKS JinkoSolar Hol 19.92 9.62  sell
ACH Aluminum Corpo 9.93 44.30  str.buy
HNP Huaneng Power 23.93 83.61  str.buy

CONTACT US       ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2019. All rigths reserved.