Intrinsic value of support.com - SPRT

Previous Close

$2.73

  Intrinsic Value

$0.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-73%

Previous close

$2.73

 
Intrinsic value

$0.75

 
Up/down potential

-73%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPRT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  20.40
  18.86
  17.47
  16.23
  15.10
  14.09
  13.18
  12.37
  11.63
  10.97
  10.37
  9.83
  9.35
  8.91
  8.52
  8.17
  7.85
  7.57
  7.31
  7.08
  6.87
  6.69
  6.52
  6.36
  6.23
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  72
  86
  101
  117
  135
  154
  175
  196
  219
  243
  268
  295
  322
  351
  381
  412
  444
  478
  513
  549
  587
  626
  667
  709
  754
  800
  847
  897
  950
  1,004
Variable operating expenses, $m
  92
  109
  128
  149
  171
  195
  221
  249
  277
  308
  340
  373
  408
  444
  482
  522
  563
  605
  650
  696
  743
  793
  845
  898
  954
  1,013
  1,073
  1,137
  1,203
  1,271
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  92
  109
  128
  149
  171
  195
  221
  249
  277
  308
  340
  373
  408
  444
  482
  522
  563
  605
  650
  696
  743
  793
  845
  898
  954
  1,013
  1,073
  1,137
  1,203
  1,271
Operating income, $m
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -118
  -127
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -167
  -178
  -189
  -201
  -213
  -226
  -239
  -253
  -268
EBITDA, $m
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -46
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -153
  -164
  -174
  -185
  -197
  -209
  -222
  -235
  -248
  -262
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Earnings before tax, $m
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -36
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -88
  -95
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -231
  -245
  -259
  -274
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -36
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -88
  -95
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -231
  -245
  -259
  -274

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  27
  32
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  72
  81
  90
  99
  109
  119
  129
  140
  152
  164
  176
  189
  202
  216
  231
  246
  261
  278
  295
  312
  331
  350
  370
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  27
  32
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  72
  81
  90
  99
  109
  119
  129
  140
  152
  164
  176
  189
  202
  216
  231
  246
  261
  278
  295
  312
  331
  350
  370
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.667
  2.688
  2.730
  2.721
  2.700
  2.702
  2.734
  2.722
  2.704
  2.700
  2.707
  2.706
  2.706
  2.721
  2.721
  2.711
  2.707
  2.716
  2.714
  2.718
  2.718
  2.710
  2.711
  2.716
  2.712
  2.712
  2.715
  2.710
  2.714
  2.714
Average production assets, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
Working capital, $m
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
Total debt, $m
  2
  3
  5
  8
  10
  12
  15
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  51
  55
  60
  64
  69
  74
  80
  85
  91
  97
  104
  110
  117
  124
Total liabilities, $m
  10
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  132
Total equity, $m
  17
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  41
  47
  52
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  90
  98
  105
  113
  122
  130
  139
  148
  158
  168
  179
  189
  201
  213
  225
  238
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  27
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  64
  73
  81
  90
  99
  109
  118
  129
  140
  152
  163
  176
  189
  202
  216
  230
  246
  261
  278
  294
  313
  331
  350
  370
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.100
  0.170
  0.230
  0.270
  0.310
  0.340
  0.360
  0.390
  0.400
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.510
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
  0.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643
  0.643

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -32
  -36
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -73
  -80
  -88
  -95
  -104
  -112
  -121
  -130
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -231
  -245
  -259
  -274
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Funds from operations, $m
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -71
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -110
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -178
  -190
  -202
  -214
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -269
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -37
  -43
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -67
  -74
  -81
  -89
  -96
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -131
  -140
  -150
  -160
  -171
  -182
  -194
  -206
  -218
  -231
  -245
  -259
  -274
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
Free cash flow, $m
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -44
  -50
  -56
  -62
  -69
  -76
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -175
  -187
  -198
  -211
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -265
  -280
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  111
  119
  129
  138
  148
  158
  169
  180
  191
  203
  216
  229
  243
  257
  271
  287
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  49
  55
  61
  68
  75
  82
  89
  98
  106
  115
  123
  133
  142
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
  209
  222
  235
  249
  264
  278
  294
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -65
  -72
  -79
  -86
  -94
  -102
  -111
  -119
  -129
  -138
  -148
  -158
  -169
  -180
  -191
  -203
  -216
  -229
  -243
  -257
  -271
  -287
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  42
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  23
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -66
  -72
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -112
  -120
  -130
  -139
  -149
  -159
  -170
  -181
  -193
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -244
  -258
  -273
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  22
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -33
  -32
  -30
  -28
  -26
  -24
  -21
  -19
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  36.8
  13.7
  5.2
  2.0
  0.8
  0.3
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
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Support.com, Inc. is a provider of cloud-based software and services for technology support. The Company offers outsourced support services for service providers, retailers, Internet of Things (IoT) solution providers and technology companies. It offers technology support services programs for both the consumer and small business markets, and includes computer and mobile device set-up, security and support, virus and malware removal, wireless network set-up, and home security and automation system support. Its cloud-based offering, Nexus, is a software-as-a-service solution for companies to support interactions with their customers. Its end user software products are designed to maintain, optimize and secure computers and mobile devices. Its principal software products include products designed for malware protection and removal (SUPERAntiSpyware); personal computer (PC), smartphone and tablet maintenance and optimization (Cosmos), and PC registry cleaning and repair (ARO).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  support.com (SPRT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -3.2
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 0.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -4.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -19.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -50%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -21.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.7%
Return On Total Capital -25%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.2%
Return On Equity -25%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -20.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 17.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.2%
EBITDA Margin -22.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -20%
Operating Margin -25.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -22.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -25.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.9%
Net Profit Margin -25.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.5%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

SPRT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPRT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $60.121 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by support.com. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of support.com. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPRT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SPRT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of support.com, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of support.com.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPRT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 126.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPRT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for support.com.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for support.com. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPRT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPRT are equal to 2.6%.

Life of production assets of 2.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in support.com operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPRT is equal to 9.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $56.458 million for support.com - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.804 million for support.com is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of support.com at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Support.com: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-08-18 05:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Support.com posts 3Q profit   [Nov-09-17 04:55PM  Associated Press]
▶ What Are The Drivers Of Supportcom Incs (SPRT) Risks?   [Oct-11-17 01:34PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ How Does Supportcom Inc (SPRT) Affect Your Portfolio Returns?   [Sep-14-17 07:25PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Support.com reports 2Q loss   [Aug-09-17 04:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 Deep Value Net-Net Stocks   [Jul-05-17 03:31PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Could This Biotech Be Headed For A Deal After CEO Takes Reins?   [Jun-29-17 04:21PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Support.com, Inc. : June 28, 2017   [Jun-28-17 03:04PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Support.com, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 04:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Support.com reports 1Q loss   [May-15-17 05:02PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Support.com, Inc. : May 8, 2017   [May-08-17 05:16PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Support.com, Inc. : April 28, 2017   [Apr-28-17 04:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Support.com, Inc. : April 7, 2017   [Apr-07-17 05:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Support.com reports 4Q loss   [Feb-16-17 08:24AM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Sleeper Biotechs That Could Bounce Back Strong in 2017   [Dec-30-16 11:15AM  24/7 Wall St.]
▶ 4 Top-Ranked Net-Net Working Capital Stocks   [10:51AM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Buy These 5 Stocks For Less Than Liquidation Value   [12:09PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Support.com Names Rick Bloom Interim President and CEO   [Oct-31-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ Support.com reports 2Q loss   [Jul-27-16 05:19PM  AP]
▶ Support.com Issues Letter to Stockholders   [Jun-20-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ VIEX Issues Letter to Fellow Support.com Stockholders   [Jun-10-16 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Support.com Sends Letter to Stockholders   [May-31-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Support.com Sends Letter to Stockholders   [08:00AM  Business Wire]

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