Intrinsic value of SpartanNash - SPTN

Previous Close

$16.92

  Intrinsic Value

$14.12

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-17%

Previous close

$16.92

 
Intrinsic value

$14.12

 
Up/down potential

-17%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SPTN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  8,291
  8,481
  8,699
  8,944
  9,215
  9,513
  9,837
  10,187
  10,565
  10,971
  11,404
  11,867
  12,360
  12,884
  13,440
  14,029
  14,652
  15,311
  16,008
  16,743
  17,520
  18,338
  19,201
  20,110
  21,067
  22,075
  23,136
  24,252
  25,427
  26,662
Variable operating expenses, $m
  8,174
  8,361
  8,575
  8,816
  9,082
  9,374
  9,692
  10,037
  10,408
  10,806
  11,201
  11,655
  12,139
  12,654
  13,200
  13,778
  14,390
  15,038
  15,722
  16,445
  17,207
  18,011
  18,858
  19,751
  20,691
  21,681
  22,723
  23,819
  24,973
  26,186
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  8,174
  8,361
  8,575
  8,816
  9,082
  9,374
  9,692
  10,037
  10,408
  10,806
  11,201
  11,655
  12,139
  12,654
  13,200
  13,778
  14,390
  15,038
  15,722
  16,445
  17,207
  18,011
  18,858
  19,751
  20,691
  21,681
  22,723
  23,819
  24,973
  26,186
Operating income, $m
  117
  120
  124
  128
  133
  139
  144
  151
  157
  165
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  262
  273
  286
  299
  313
  327
  343
  359
  376
  394
  413
  433
  454
  476
EBITDA, $m
  218
  223
  229
  235
  242
  250
  259
  268
  278
  289
  300
  312
  325
  339
  354
  369
  385
  403
  421
  440
  461
  482
  505
  529
  554
  581
  609
  638
  669
  701
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  139
  147
  155
  164
  174
  183
  194
Earnings before tax, $m
  76
  78
  80
  83
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  102
  138
  142
  147
  152
  157
  163
  169
  175
  182
  189
  196
  204
  212
  220
  229
  239
  249
  259
  270
  282
Tax expense, $m
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  37
  38
  40
  41
  42
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
Net income, $m
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  65
  67
  69
  72
  75
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  182
  189
  197
  206

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,097
  2,145
  2,200
  2,262
  2,331
  2,406
  2,488
  2,576
  2,672
  2,775
  2,884
  3,001
  3,126
  3,258
  3,399
  3,548
  3,706
  3,872
  4,049
  4,235
  4,431
  4,638
  4,856
  5,086
  5,328
  5,583
  5,851
  6,134
  6,431
  6,743
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,097
  2,145
  2,200
  2,262
  2,331
  2,406
  2,488
  2,576
  2,672
  2,775
  2,884
  3,001
  3,126
  3,258
  3,399
  3,548
  3,706
  3,872
  4,049
  4,235
  4,431
  4,638
  4,856
  5,086
  5,328
  5,583
  5,851
  6,134
  6,431
  6,743
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.953
  3.954
  3.954
  3.955
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.955
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.953
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
  3.954
Average production assets, $m
  771
  789
  809
  832
  857
  885
  915
  947
  983
  1,020
  1,061
  1,104
  1,149
  1,198
  1,250
  1,305
  1,363
  1,424
  1,489
  1,557
  1,629
  1,705
  1,786
  1,870
  1,959
  2,053
  2,152
  2,255
  2,365
  2,480
Working capital, $m
  514
  526
  539
  555
  571
  590
  610
  632
  655
  680
  707
  736
  766
  799
  833
  870
  908
  949
  992
  1,038
  1,086
  1,137
  1,190
  1,247
  1,306
  1,369
  1,434
  1,504
  1,576
  1,653
Total debt, $m
  777
  808
  844
  884
  929
  977
  1,031
  1,088
  1,150
  1,217
  1,288
  1,364
  1,445
  1,531
  1,622
  1,719
  1,821
  1,929
  2,044
  2,164
  2,292
  2,426
  2,568
  2,717
  2,874
  3,039
  3,214
  3,397
  3,590
  3,792
Total liabilities, $m
  1,361
  1,392
  1,428
  1,468
  1,513
  1,561
  1,615
  1,672
  1,734
  1,801
  1,872
  1,948
  2,029
  2,115
  2,206
  2,303
  2,405
  2,513
  2,627
  2,748
  2,876
  3,010
  3,152
  3,301
  3,458
  3,623
  3,797
  3,981
  4,174
  4,376
Total equity, $m
  736
  753
  772
  794
  818
  844
  873
  904
  938
  974
  1,012
  1,053
  1,097
  1,144
  1,193
  1,245
  1,301
  1,359
  1,421
  1,486
  1,555
  1,628
  1,704
  1,785
  1,870
  1,960
  2,054
  2,153
  2,257
  2,367
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,097
  2,145
  2,200
  2,262
  2,331
  2,405
  2,488
  2,576
  2,672
  2,775
  2,884
  3,001
  3,126
  3,259
  3,399
  3,548
  3,706
  3,872
  4,048
  4,234
  4,431
  4,638
  4,856
  5,086
  5,328
  5,583
  5,851
  6,134
  6,431
  6,743
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.060
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.140
  1.160
  1.180
  1.200
  1.230
  1.250
  1.270
  1.290
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.400
  1.420
  1.440
  1.460
  1.470
  1.490
  1.510
  1.520
  1.540
  1.550
  1.560
  1.580
  1.590
  1.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351
  0.351

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  56
  57
  59
  60
  62
  65
  67
  69
  72
  75
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  182
  189
  197
  206
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  101
  103
  105
  107
  109
  112
  114
  117
  121
  124
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
Funds from operations, $m
  157
  160
  164
  167
  172
  176
  181
  187
  193
  199
  197
  204
  212
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  291
  304
  317
  331
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  431
Change in working capital, $m
  10
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  69
  73
  77
Cash from operations, $m
  147
  148
  150
  152
  155
  158
  161
  165
  169
  174
  170
  176
  181
  187
  194
  201
  208
  216
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  275
  286
  299
  312
  325
  340
  355
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -69
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -205
  -215
New CAPEX, $m
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -86
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -214
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
  -272
  -286
  -300
  -314
  -330
Free cash flow, $m
  62
  60
  58
  56
  54
  52
  51
  49
  48
  47
  37
  36
  35
  34
  33
  33
  32
  31
  30
  30
  29
  29
  28
  28
  27
  27
  26
  26
  25
  25
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  27
  31
  36
  40
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  27
  31
  36
  40
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  102
  108
  114
  121
  127
  134
  142
  149
  157
  165
  174
  183
  193
  203
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  89
  92
  94
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  110
  113
  108
  112
  116
  120
  125
  129
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  209
  218
  228
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -110
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  75
  75
  74
  74
  74
  75
  75
  76
  76
  77
  70
  71
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
Discount rate, %
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  68
  63
  56
  50
  45
  39
  34
  30
  25
  21
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

SpartanNash Company is a multi-regional grocery distributor and grocery retailer. The Company's core businesses include distributing grocery products to independent grocery retailers (independent retailers), select national retailers, its corporate owned retail stores, and the United States military commissaries. The Company operates through three segments: Food Distribution, Military and Retail. The Food Distribution segment provides a range of nationally branded and private brand grocery products and perishable food products to independent retailers, food service distributors and its corporate owned retail stores. The Military segment contracts with manufacturers to distribute a range of grocery products primarily to military commissaries and exchanges located in the United States, the District of Columbia, Europe, Cuba, Puerto Rico, Bahrain and Egypt. As of December 31, 2016, the Retail segment operated 157 corporate owned retail stores in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  SpartanNash (SPTN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 11.1
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 1.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 14.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 50.2%
Total Debt to Equity 52.2%
Interest Coverage 7
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Total Capital 4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Equity 7.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Asset Turnover 4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
EBITDA Margin 2.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Operating Margin 1.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin 0.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate 36.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
Payout Ratio 40.4%

SPTN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SPTN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $8128.082 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by SpartanNash. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of SpartanNash. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SPTN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for SPTN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of SpartanNash, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of SpartanNash.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SPTN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SPTN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for SpartanNash.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for SpartanNash. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SPTN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SPTN are equal to 9.3%.

Life of production assets of 11 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in SpartanNash operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SPTN is equal to 6.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $721.95 million for SpartanNash - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.922 million for SpartanNash is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of SpartanNash at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ SpartanNash's Q2 Earnings Preview   [08:18AM  Benzinga]
▶ SpartanNash Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [08:30AM  Business Wire]
▶ SpartanNash Company Names Lead Independent Director   [May-24-18 08:32AM  Business Wire]
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▶ SpartanNash Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ SpartanNash Announces Share Repurchase Program   [Nov-16-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to SpartanNash Co. : October 31, 2017   [Oct-31-17 11:52AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Should You Buy SpartanNash Company (SPTN)?   [Oct-19-17 02:57PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ SpartanNash Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Aug-30-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to SpartanNash Co. : August 28, 2017   [Aug-28-17 06:42PM  Capital Cube]
▶ SpartanNash Announces New Chief Financial Officer   [Aug-16-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ SpartanNash Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jun-06-17 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to SpartanNash Co. : May 31, 2017   [May-31-17 12:47PM  Capital Cube]

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