Intrinsic value of Sequential Brands Group - SQBG

Previous Close

$0.98

  Intrinsic Value

$10.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$0.98

 
Intrinsic value

$10.95

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SQBG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  171
  175
  179
  184
  190
  196
  203
  210
  218
  226
  235
  245
  255
  265
  277
  289
  302
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  396
  414
  434
  455
  477
  500
  524
  549
Variable operating expenses, $m
  92
  92
  92
  92
  91
  91
  91
  90
  90
  90
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  92
  92
  92
  92
  91
  91
  91
  90
  90
  90
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Operating income, $m
  79
  83
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
  128
  136
  245
  255
  266
  277
  289
  302
  315
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  432
  453
  474
  497
  521
  547
  573
EBITDA, $m
  198
  203
  208
  214
  220
  228
  235
  244
  253
  262
  273
  284
  296
  308
  322
  336
  351
  366
  383
  401
  419
  439
  459
  481
  504
  528
  553
  580
  608
  638
Interest expense (income), $m
  45
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  128
  134
  141
  149
  156
  164
  173
  182
  192
  202
  212
  223
Earnings before tax, $m
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  39
  44
  48
  54
  159
  164
  171
  177
  184
  192
  199
  208
  216
  226
  235
  246
  256
  268
  280
  292
  306
  320
  334
  350
Tax expense, $m
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  14
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
Net income, $m
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  116
  120
  125
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,124
  1,150
  1,179
  1,212
  1,249
  1,289
  1,333
  1,381
  1,432
  1,487
  1,546
  1,609
  1,675
  1,746
  1,822
  1,902
  1,986
  2,075
  2,170
  2,270
  2,375
  2,486
  2,603
  2,726
  2,856
  2,992
  3,136
  3,287
  3,447
  3,614
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,124
  1,150
  1,179
  1,212
  1,249
  1,289
  1,333
  1,381
  1,432
  1,487
  1,546
  1,609
  1,675
  1,746
  1,822
  1,902
  1,986
  2,075
  2,170
  2,270
  2,375
  2,486
  2,603
  2,726
  2,856
  2,992
  3,136
  3,287
  3,447
  3,614
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
  0.152
Average production assets, $m
  604
  618
  634
  652
  672
  693
  717
  742
  770
  799
  831
  865
  901
  939
  979
  1,022
  1,068
  1,116
  1,167
  1,220
  1,277
  1,336
  1,399
  1,465
  1,535
  1,609
  1,686
  1,767
  1,853
  1,943
Working capital, $m
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  94
  99
  103
  108
  113
  119
  124
  130
  137
Total debt, $m
  650
  670
  691
  716
  743
  773
  806
  841
  879
  920
  964
  1,011
  1,060
  1,113
  1,169
  1,228
  1,291
  1,357
  1,428
  1,502
  1,580
  1,662
  1,749
  1,841
  1,937
  2,039
  2,145
  2,258
  2,376
  2,501
Total liabilities, $m
  835
  854
  876
  901
  928
  958
  991
  1,026
  1,064
  1,105
  1,149
  1,195
  1,245
  1,298
  1,354
  1,413
  1,476
  1,542
  1,612
  1,686
  1,764
  1,847
  1,934
  2,025
  2,122
  2,223
  2,330
  2,442
  2,561
  2,685
Total equity, $m
  289
  295
  303
  312
  321
  331
  343
  355
  368
  382
  397
  413
  431
  449
  468
  489
  510
  533
  558
  583
  610
  639
  669
  701
  734
  769
  806
  845
  886
  929
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,124
  1,149
  1,179
  1,213
  1,249
  1,289
  1,334
  1,381
  1,432
  1,487
  1,546
  1,608
  1,676
  1,747
  1,822
  1,902
  1,986
  2,075
  2,170
  2,269
  2,374
  2,486
  2,603
  2,726
  2,856
  2,992
  3,136
  3,287
  3,447
  3,614
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.250
  2.270
  2.280
  2.300
  2.320
  2.330
  2.350
  2.370
  2.390
  2.410
  2.430
  2.440
  2.460
  2.480
  2.500
  2.510
  2.530
  2.540
  2.560
  2.570
  2.590
  2.600
  2.620
  2.630
  2.640
  2.650
  2.660
  2.670
  2.680
  2.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257
  0.257

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  14
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  32
  35
  39
  116
  120
  125
  129
  135
  140
  146
  152
  158
  165
  172
  179
  187
  196
  204
  213
  223
  233
  244
  255
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  120
  120
  121
  121
  122
  123
  123
  124
  125
  126
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
Funds from operations, $m
  134
  136
  139
  141
  145
  148
  152
  156
  161
  165
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  197
  205
  214
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  320
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  133
  135
  137
  140
  143
  147
  150
  154
  159
  163
  141
  147
  152
  158
  164
  171
  178
  185
  193
  202
  210
  220
  229
  240
  251
  262
  274
  287
  300
  314
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
New CAPEX, $m
  -14
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -34
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -131
  -137
  -145
  -152
Free cash flow, $m
  100
  101
  101
  101
  102
  103
  104
  105
  106
  108
  83
  85
  87
  90
  93
  95
  99
  102
  105
  109
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  143
  149
  155
  162
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  20
  19
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  96
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  20
  19
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  96
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  120
  120
  123
  126
  129
  133
  136
  140
  144
  149
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  155
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  200
  209
  218
  228
  239
  250
  261
  274
  286
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  113
  113
  115
  117
  120
  122
  125
  128
  131
  135
  112
  116
  120
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  151
  158
  164
  171
  179
  187
  195
  204
  213
  222
  233
  243
Discount rate, %
  10.80
  11.34
  11.91
  12.50
  13.13
  13.78
  14.47
  15.20
  15.96
  16.75
  17.59
  18.47
  19.40
  20.37
  21.38
  22.45
  23.58
  24.75
  25.99
  27.29
  28.66
  30.09
  31.59
  33.17
  34.83
  36.57
  38.40
  40.32
  42.34
  44.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  102
  92
  82
  73
  65
  56
  49
  41
  35
  29
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Sequential Brands Group, Inc. owns a portfolio of consumer brands in the fashion, home, athletic and lifestyle categories. The Company's portfolio of consumer brands includes Martha Stewart, Emeril Lagasse, Jessica Simpson, Joe's Jeans, William Rast, Ellen Tracy, Revo, AND1 and Avia. The Company's brands are licensed for a range of product categories, including apparel, footwear, eyewear, fashion accessories and home goods. The Company licenses brands to both wholesale and direct-to-retail licensees. The Company licenses the Martha Stewart brand to various licensees, including retailers, such as Macy's, The Home Depot, PetSmart and Staples. The Jessica Simpson Collection is a signature lifestyle concept designed in collaboration with Jessica Simpson, which offers various product categories, including footwear, apparel, fragrance, fashion accessories, maternity apparel, girls clothing and a home line. The Avia brand offers running and activewear products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sequential Brands Group (SQBG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -61.3
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 1.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 77.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 133.3%
Total Debt to Equity 139.3%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital -0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Return On Equity -0.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 42.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.4%
Operating Margin 45.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.4%
Net Profit Margin -0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.1%
Effective Tax Rate 56.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SQBG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SQBG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $167.464 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sequential Brands Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Sequential Brands Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SQBG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.8%, whose default value for SQBG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sequential Brands Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sequential Brands Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SQBG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SQBG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 9.4% for Sequential Brands Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sequential Brands Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SQBG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SQBG are equal to 353.7%.

Life of production assets of 245.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sequential Brands Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SQBG is equal to 24.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $281.991 million for Sequential Brands Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 64.126 million for Sequential Brands Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sequential Brands Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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DEST Destination Ma 5.39 0.66  str.sell
RL Ralph Lauren C 122.19 11.01  str.sell
VRA Vera Bradley 12.30 5.48  str.sell
CHS Chico's Fa 7.71 8.74  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Sequential Brands: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- AND1/   [Nov-01-18 09:11AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Joes Launches Fall 2018 Campaign With Sara Sampaio   [Aug-24-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Sequential Brands: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Sequential Brands: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [May-09-18 09:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Martha Stewart collection to expand at Michaels stores   [Apr-04-18 09:01AM  MarketWatch]
▶ Sequential Brands reports 4Q loss   [Feb-28-18 10:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Martha Stewart to Expand Product Offerings on QVC   [Feb-27-18 09:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Sequential Brands Group to Present at ICR Conference   [Jan-03-18 08:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Capital Concerns Intensify For Sequential Brands   [Nov-10-17 10:07AM  Benzinga]
▶ Sequential Brands reports 3Q loss   [08:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Martha Stewart and Marley Spoon unveil Dinnerly offering   [Sep-19-17 02:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Live Beautifully With QVC and Martha Stewart   [Sep-06-17 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Judge tosses shareholder lawsuit against Martha Stewart   [Aug-18-17 03:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Sequential Brands posts 2Q profit   [Jul-27-17 03:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Martha Stewart brand exclusives expanding at Staples   [Jul-11-17 08:51AM  MarketWatch]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for July 5th   [Jul-05-17 09:07AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for May 25th   [May-25-17 10:28AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for May 23rd   [May-23-17 10:13AM  Zacks]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for May 17th   [May-17-17 10:28AM  Zacks]
▶ HelloFresh launches wine subscription service   [May-09-17 11:30AM  MarketWatch]
▶ Martha Stewart lends her name to skincare and apparel with new deal   [May-04-17 02:20PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Sequential Brands reports 1Q loss   [08:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ Martha Stewart heading to QVC   [08:37AM  MarketWatch]

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