Intrinsic value of Seven Stars Cloud Group - SSC

Previous Close

$2.98

  Intrinsic Value

$60.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$2.98

 
Intrinsic value

$60.48

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SSC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  231
  357
  534
  774
  1,092
  1,502
  2,016
  2,647
  3,406
  4,302
  5,342
  6,531
  7,872
  9,366
  11,013
  12,810
  14,757
  16,848
  19,081
  21,453
  23,960
  26,600
  29,371
  32,271
  35,300
  38,459
  41,749
  45,171
  48,730
  52,429
Variable operating expenses, $m
  190
  292
  436
  632
  891
  1,224
  1,643
  2,157
  2,774
  3,504
  4,349
  5,317
  6,409
  7,625
  8,966
  10,430
  12,014
  13,717
  15,535
  17,466
  19,507
  21,656
  23,912
  26,273
  28,740
  31,311
  33,989
  36,776
  39,673
  42,685
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  37
  38
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  56
  57
  58
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  69
Total operating expenses, $m
  227
  330
  474
  671
  931
  1,265
  1,685
  2,200
  2,818
  3,549
  4,395
  5,364
  6,457
  7,674
  9,016
  10,481
  12,066
  13,770
  15,589
  17,522
  19,564
  21,714
  23,971
  26,334
  28,802
  31,374
  34,054
  36,842
  39,741
  42,754
Operating income, $m
  4
  27
  59
  103
  161
  236
  331
  447
  587
  753
  947
  1,167
  1,415
  1,692
  1,997
  2,330
  2,690
  3,078
  3,492
  3,931
  4,396
  4,886
  5,399
  5,937
  6,499
  7,084
  7,694
  8,329
  8,989
  9,675
EBITDA, $m
  7
  30
  62
  107
  166
  243
  339
  457
  599
  768
  963
  1,187
  1,439
  1,720
  2,030
  2,368
  2,735
  3,128
  3,549
  3,996
  4,468
  4,965
  5,487
  6,034
  6,604
  7,200
  7,820
  8,464
  9,135
  9,832
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  8
  11
  16
  22
  30
  39
  50
  62
  76
  92
  110
  129
  150
  174
  198
  225
  253
  283
  314
  347
  381
  417
  455
  494
  535
  577
Earnings before tax, $m
  4
  26
  56
  98
  154
  225
  315
  425
  558
  714
  898
  1,105
  1,339
  1,600
  1,887
  2,201
  2,540
  2,904
  3,293
  3,706
  4,143
  4,603
  5,085
  5,590
  6,117
  6,667
  7,239
  7,835
  8,454
  9,098
Tax expense, $m
  1
  7
  15
  26
  41
  61
  85
  115
  151
  193
  242
  298
  362
  432
  510
  594
  686
  784
  889
  1,001
  1,119
  1,243
  1,373
  1,509
  1,652
  1,800
  1,955
  2,115
  2,283
  2,456
Net income, $m
  3
  19
  41
  72
  112
  164
  230
  310
  407
  521
  655
  807
  978
  1,168
  1,378
  1,607
  1,854
  2,120
  2,404
  2,706
  3,024
  3,360
  3,712
  4,081
  4,465
  4,867
  5,285
  5,720
  6,172
  6,642

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  101
  156
  234
  339
  478
  657
  883
  1,159
  1,491
  1,883
  2,339
  2,859
  3,447
  4,101
  4,822
  5,609
  6,461
  7,376
  8,354
  9,393
  10,490
  11,646
  12,859
  14,129
  15,455
  16,838
  18,279
  19,777
  21,335
  22,955
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  101
  156
  234
  339
  478
  657
  883
  1,159
  1,491
  1,883
  2,339
  2,859
  3,447
  4,101
  4,822
  5,609
  6,461
  7,376
  8,354
  9,393
  10,490
  11,646
  12,859
  14,129
  15,455
  16,838
  18,279
  19,777
  21,335
  22,955
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.287
  2.288
  2.282
  2.283
  2.285
  2.286
  2.283
  2.284
  2.284
  2.285
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
  2.284
Average production assets, $m
  21
  32
  48
  70
  98
  135
  181
  238
  307
  387
  481
  588
  708
  843
  991
  1,153
  1,328
  1,516
  1,717
  1,931
  2,156
  2,394
  2,643
  2,904
  3,177
  3,461
  3,757
  4,065
  4,386
  4,719
Working capital, $m
  32
  49
  74
  107
  151
  207
  278
  365
  470
  594
  737
  901
  1,086
  1,293
  1,520
  1,768
  2,036
  2,325
  2,633
  2,960
  3,306
  3,671
  4,053
  4,453
  4,871
  5,307
  5,761
  6,234
  6,725
  7,235
Total debt, $m
  22
  50
  89
  142
  211
  301
  414
  553
  720
  917
  1,145
  1,407
  1,702
  2,030
  2,392
  2,787
  3,215
  3,674
  4,165
  4,686
  5,238
  5,818
  6,427
  7,064
  7,730
  8,424
  9,147
  9,900
  10,682
  11,495
Total liabilities, $m
  51
  78
  117
  170
  240
  330
  443
  582
  749
  945
  1,174
  1,435
  1,730
  2,059
  2,420
  2,816
  3,243
  3,703
  4,194
  4,715
  5,266
  5,846
  6,455
  7,093
  7,759
  8,453
  9,176
  9,928
  10,710
  11,523
Total equity, $m
  50
  78
  116
  169
  238
  327
  440
  577
  743
  938
  1,165
  1,424
  1,716
  2,042
  2,401
  2,793
  3,217
  3,673
  4,160
  4,678
  5,224
  5,800
  6,404
  7,036
  7,697
  8,386
  9,103
  9,849
  10,625
  11,432
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  101
  156
  233
  339
  478
  657
  883
  1,159
  1,492
  1,883
  2,339
  2,859
  3,446
  4,101
  4,821
  5,609
  6,460
  7,376
  8,354
  9,393
  10,490
  11,646
  12,859
  14,129
  15,456
  16,839
  18,279
  19,777
  21,335
  22,955
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.440
  0.640
  0.760
  0.840
  0.890
  0.920
  0.940
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498
  0.498

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  3
  19
  41
  72
  112
  164
  230
  310
  407
  521
  655
  807
  978
  1,168
  1,378
  1,607
  1,854
  2,120
  2,404
  2,706
  3,024
  3,360
  3,712
  4,081
  4,465
  4,867
  5,285
  5,720
  6,172
  6,642
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  15
  16
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  44
  51
  57
  64
  72
  80
  88
  97
  106
  115
  125
  136
  146
  157
Funds from operations, $m
  6
  22
  44
  76
  117
  170
  237
  320
  419
  536
  671
  826
  1,001
  1,196
  1,411
  1,645
  1,898
  2,171
  2,461
  2,770
  3,096
  3,440
  3,800
  4,177
  4,571
  4,982
  5,410
  5,855
  6,318
  6,799
Change in working capital, $m
  12
  17
  24
  33
  44
  56
  71
  87
  105
  124
  144
  164
  185
  206
  227
  248
  269
  289
  308
  327
  346
  364
  382
  400
  418
  436
  454
  472
  491
  510
Cash from operations, $m
  -6
  4
  20
  42
  73
  114
  167
  233
  314
  412
  528
  662
  816
  990
  1,183
  1,397
  1,630
  1,882
  2,153
  2,443
  2,750
  3,075
  3,418
  3,777
  4,153
  4,546
  4,956
  5,383
  5,827
  6,288
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -13
  -16
  -20
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -38
  -44
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -72
  -80
  -88
  -97
  -106
  -115
  -125
  -136
  -146
New CAPEX, $m
  -8
  -11
  -16
  -22
  -29
  -37
  -46
  -57
  -68
  -81
  -94
  -107
  -121
  -134
  -148
  -162
  -175
  -188
  -201
  -213
  -226
  -238
  -249
  -261
  -273
  -284
  -296
  -308
  -320
  -333
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -12
  -17
  -24
  -31
  -40
  -51
  -63
  -76
  -91
  -107
  -123
  -141
  -158
  -176
  -195
  -213
  -232
  -252
  -270
  -290
  -310
  -329
  -349
  -370
  -390
  -411
  -433
  -456
  -479
Free cash flow, $m
  -15
  -8
  3
  19
  42
  74
  116
  170
  238
  321
  421
  539
  676
  832
  1,007
  1,202
  1,416
  1,650
  1,902
  2,172
  2,460
  2,766
  3,089
  3,428
  3,784
  4,156
  4,545
  4,949
  5,371
  5,809
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  19
  28
  39
  53
  70
  90
  113
  139
  167
  197
  229
  261
  295
  328
  362
  395
  428
  460
  491
  521
  551
  580
  609
  637
  666
  694
  723
  752
  782
  813
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  16
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  35
  37
  39
  53
  70
  90
  113
  139
  167
  197
  229
  261
  295
  328
  362
  395
  428
  460
  491
  521
  551
  580
  609
  637
  666
  694
  723
  752
  782
  813
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  20
  28
  42
  72
  112
  164
  229
  309
  405
  518
  650
  801
  971
  1,160
  1,369
  1,597
  1,844
  2,109
  2,393
  2,693
  3,011
  3,346
  3,698
  4,065
  4,450
  4,850
  5,268
  5,702
  6,153
  6,622
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -19
  -27
  -39
  -52
  -69
  -89
  -112
  -138
  -165
  -195
  -227
  -259
  -292
  -326
  -359
  -392
  -424
  -456
  -487
  -517
  -547
  -576
  -604
  -632
  -661
  -689
  -717
  -746
  -776
  -806
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  1
  1
  3
  20
  43
  75
  117
  171
  239
  323
  423
  541
  678
  834
  1,010
  1,205
  1,420
  1,653
  1,906
  2,176
  2,465
  2,771
  3,094
  3,433
  3,789
  4,162
  4,550
  4,955
  5,377
  5,816
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  1
  1
  3
  16
  33
  54
  79
  107
  137
  169
  201
  231
  258
  280
  297
  306
  309
  304
  293
  277
  255
  230
  203
  175
  147
  121
  98
  77
  59
  44
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  93.2
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0
  91.0

Seven Stars Cloud Group, Inc., formerly Wecast Network, Inc., is engaged in providing cloud-based, business to business (B2B) solutions for business landscape. The Company focuses on BASE technology and infrastructure including Blockchain, artificial intelligence, supply chain and exchanges to the virtual platform as a service (v pass). Its business units include smart intellectual property cloud, smart sales cloud products and transactional cloud. The Company is engaged in creating closed trade ecosystem for buyers and sellers. The Company creates a vertical, transactional platform for global enterprise.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Seven Stars Cloud Group (SSC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6.2
Price to Sales 32.1
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -17.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -10
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 8.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -68.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -55.4%
Return On Total Capital -94.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -70.2%
Return On Equity -106.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -84.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -10%
EBITDA Margin -560%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -446.7%
Operating Margin -540%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -400%
Pre-Tax Margin -560%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -463.3%
Net Profit Margin -520%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -426.7%
Effective Tax Rate 3.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

SSC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SSC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $144.338805 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Seven Stars Cloud Group. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Seven Stars Cloud Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SSC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SSC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Seven Stars Cloud Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Seven Stars Cloud Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SSC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $36 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SSC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Seven Stars Cloud Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Seven Stars Cloud Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SSC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SSC are equal to 9%.

Life of production assets of 76.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Seven Stars Cloud Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SSC is equal to 13.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $31.411979 million for Seven Stars Cloud Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 73.142 million for Seven Stars Cloud Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Seven Stars Cloud Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Why Ideanomics, Inc. Stock Fell 16.6% in October   [Nov-12-18 08:43PM  Motley Fool]
▶ /C O R R E C T I O N -- Ideanomics/   [Oct-29-18 12:29PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Why Shares of Seven Stars Cloud Group Jumped Today   [Sep-11-18 01:41PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Clarification of Recent News Regarding Company Filing   [Aug-27-18 03:32PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Who Owns Seven Stars Cloud Group Inc (NASDAQ:SSC)?   [May-31-18 09:22PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Seven Stars Cloud Reports Q1 2018 Results   [May-15-18 07:15AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Who Owns Seven Stars Cloud Group Inc (NASDAQ:SSC)?   [Feb-09-18 07:12PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Selling Action Is Upon Us   [Jan-10-18 10:31AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Why These Bitcoin Stocks Are Tumbling Today   [Dec-22-17 12:49PM  Motley Fool]
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▶ LongFin Going Nuts in Blockchain Group   [12:33PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Bitcoin-Related Stocks Soar After Futures Debut   [Dec-12-17 11:05AM  Investopedia]
▶ Stock Market Won't Run on Bitcoin Hysteria for Much Longer   [Dec-11-17 06:52PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Seven Stars Cloud Reports Q3 2017 Results   [Nov-13-17 07:10AM  PR Newswire]

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