Intrinsic value of Seaspan - SSW

Previous Close

$9.68

  Intrinsic Value

$3.51

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-64%

Previous close

$9.68

 
Intrinsic value

$3.51

 
Up/down potential

-64%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SSW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  848
  867
  890
  915
  943
  973
  1,006
  1,042
  1,081
  1,122
  1,166
  1,214
  1,264
  1,318
  1,375
  1,435
  1,499
  1,566
  1,637
  1,712
  1,792
  1,876
  1,964
  2,057
  2,155
  2,258
  2,366
  2,480
  2,601
  2,727
Variable operating expenses, $m
  841
  860
  882
  907
  934
  964
  996
  1,032
  1,070
  1,110
  1,147
  1,193
  1,243
  1,295
  1,351
  1,410
  1,473
  1,539
  1,609
  1,683
  1,761
  1,844
  1,930
  2,022
  2,118
  2,219
  2,326
  2,438
  2,556
  2,680
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  841
  860
  882
  907
  934
  964
  996
  1,032
  1,070
  1,110
  1,147
  1,193
  1,243
  1,295
  1,351
  1,410
  1,473
  1,539
  1,609
  1,683
  1,761
  1,844
  1,930
  2,022
  2,118
  2,219
  2,326
  2,438
  2,556
  2,680
Operating income, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  47
EBITDA, $m
  217
  222
  228
  234
  241
  249
  258
  267
  277
  287
  299
  311
  324
  338
  352
  368
  384
  401
  419
  439
  459
  480
  503
  527
  552
  578
  606
  635
  666
  698
Interest expense (income), $m
  109
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  194
  201
  209
  218
  228
  238
  248
  260
  272
  285
  299
  314
  329
  346
  363
  381
  401
  421
  442
  465
  489
  514
  540
  568
  597
Earnings before tax, $m
  -160
  -164
  -168
  -173
  -179
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -388
  -407
  -428
  -450
  -474
  -498
  -524
  -551
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -160
  -164
  -168
  -173
  -179
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -388
  -407
  -428
  -450
  -474
  -498
  -524
  -551

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,808
  5,941
  6,094
  6,266
  6,456
  6,664
  6,891
  7,137
  7,401
  7,685
  7,989
  8,313
  8,659
  9,026
  9,415
  9,827
  10,264
  10,726
  11,214
  11,729
  12,273
  12,846
  13,451
  14,088
  14,758
  15,464
  16,208
  16,990
  17,812
  18,678
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,808
  5,941
  6,094
  6,266
  6,456
  6,664
  6,891
  7,137
  7,401
  7,685
  7,989
  8,313
  8,659
  9,026
  9,415
  9,827
  10,264
  10,726
  11,214
  11,729
  12,273
  12,846
  13,451
  14,088
  14,758
  15,464
  16,208
  16,990
  17,812
  18,678
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
  0.146
Average production assets, $m
  4,845
  4,957
  5,084
  5,227
  5,385
  5,559
  5,749
  5,954
  6,174
  6,411
  6,665
  6,935
  7,223
  7,530
  7,854
  8,199
  8,563
  8,948
  9,355
  9,785
  10,239
  10,717
  11,221
  11,752
  12,312
  12,901
  13,521
  14,174
  14,860
  15,582
Working capital, $m
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -94
  -97
  -100
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -176
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -212
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -255
  -268
  -281
Total debt, $m
  3,165
  3,253
  3,353
  3,466
  3,591
  3,728
  3,878
  4,039
  4,214
  4,400
  4,600
  4,814
  5,041
  5,282
  5,538
  5,810
  6,097
  6,401
  6,722
  7,061
  7,419
  7,796
  8,194
  8,613
  9,054
  9,519
  10,008
  10,523
  11,064
  11,634
Total liabilities, $m
  3,822
  3,909
  4,010
  4,123
  4,248
  4,385
  4,534
  4,696
  4,870
  5,057
  5,257
  5,470
  5,697
  5,939
  6,195
  6,466
  6,754
  7,058
  7,379
  7,718
  8,076
  8,453
  8,851
  9,270
  9,711
  10,176
  10,665
  11,179
  11,721
  12,290
Total equity, $m
  1,986
  2,032
  2,084
  2,143
  2,208
  2,279
  2,357
  2,441
  2,531
  2,628
  2,732
  2,843
  2,961
  3,087
  3,220
  3,361
  3,510
  3,668
  3,835
  4,011
  4,197
  4,393
  4,600
  4,818
  5,047
  5,289
  5,543
  5,810
  6,092
  6,388
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,808
  5,941
  6,094
  6,266
  6,456
  6,664
  6,891
  7,137
  7,401
  7,685
  7,989
  8,313
  8,658
  9,026
  9,415
  9,827
  10,264
  10,726
  11,214
  11,729
  12,273
  12,846
  13,451
  14,088
  14,758
  15,465
  16,208
  16,989
  17,813
  18,678
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.590
  1.600
  1.610
  1.620
  1.630
  1.640
  1.650
  1.650
  1.660
  1.670
  1.680
  1.690
  1.700
  1.710
  1.720
  1.730
  1.740
  1.750
  1.750
  1.760
  1.770
  1.770
  1.780
  1.790
  1.790
  1.800
  1.810
  1.810
  1.820
  1.820
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342
  0.342

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -160
  -164
  -168
  -173
  -179
  -185
  -192
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -218
  -228
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -288
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -351
  -369
  -388
  -407
  -428
  -450
  -474
  -498
  -524
  -551
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  210
  215
  220
  226
  233
  240
  248
  257
  266
  276
  279
  290
  302
  315
  329
  343
  358
  374
  391
  409
  428
  448
  470
  492
  515
  540
  566
  593
  622
  652
Funds from operations, $m
  50
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  62
  64
  65
  67
  68
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  87
  89
  92
  95
  98
  101
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Cash from operations, $m
  52
  53
  55
  56
  57
  58
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  88
  91
  94
  97
  100
  103
  107
  110
  114
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -199
  -203
  -207
  -213
  -219
  -225
  -233
  -241
  -249
  -258
  -268
  -279
  -290
  -302
  -315
  -329
  -343
  -358
  -374
  -391
  -409
  -428
  -448
  -470
  -492
  -515
  -540
  -566
  -593
  -622
New CAPEX, $m
  -97
  -111
  -127
  -143
  -158
  -174
  -189
  -205
  -221
  -237
  -254
  -270
  -288
  -306
  -325
  -344
  -364
  -385
  -407
  -430
  -454
  -478
  -504
  -531
  -559
  -589
  -620
  -652
  -686
  -722
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -296
  -314
  -334
  -356
  -377
  -399
  -422
  -446
  -470
  -495
  -522
  -549
  -578
  -608
  -640
  -673
  -707
  -743
  -781
  -821
  -863
  -906
  -952
  -1,001
  -1,051
  -1,104
  -1,160
  -1,218
  -1,279
  -1,344
Free cash flow, $m
  -244
  -261
  -280
  -300
  -320
  -341
  -362
  -384
  -407
  -431
  -456
  -482
  -509
  -537
  -567
  -598
  -631
  -665
  -700
  -738
  -777
  -818
  -862
  -907
  -954
  -1,004
  -1,057
  -1,112
  -1,169
  -1,230
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  76
  88
  100
  113
  125
  137
  149
  162
  174
  187
  200
  213
  227
  241
  256
  271
  287
  304
  321
  339
  358
  377
  398
  419
  441
  465
  489
  515
  541
  569
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  197
  209
  220
  232
  244
  256
  269
  283
  298
  313
  322
  339
  356
  375
  395
  416
  438
  460
  485
  510
  537
  565
  594
  625
  658
  692
  728
  766
  805
  847
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  273
  297
  320
  345
  369
  393
  418
  445
  472
  500
  522
  552
  583
  616
  651
  687
  725
  764
  806
  849
  895
  942
  992
  1,044
  1,099
  1,157
  1,217
  1,281
  1,346
  1,416
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  29
  36
  40
  45
  49
  52
  56
  61
  65
  69
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  137
  145
  152
  160
  169
  177
  187
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -197
  -209
  -220
  -232
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -283
  -298
  -313
  -322
  -339
  -356
  -375
  -395
  -416
  -438
  -460
  -485
  -510
  -537
  -565
  -594
  -625
  -658
  -692
  -728
  -766
  -805
  -847
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -168
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -204
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -327
  -343
  -361
  -379
  -399
  -419
  -441
  -464
  -488
  -513
  -540
  -568
  -597
  -628
  -660
Discount rate, %
  8.90
  9.35
  9.81
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.93
  12.52
  13.15
  13.81
  14.50
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.61
  24.80
  26.03
  27.34
  28.70
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.89
  36.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -154
  -145
  -136
  -126
  -117
  -107
  -97
  -87
  -77
  -67
  -58
  -49
  -41
  -34
  -27
  -22
  -17
  -13
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  87.4
  76.0
  65.8
  56.8
  48.8
  41.9
  35.8
  30.6
  26.1
  22.1
  18.8
  16.0
  13.6
  11.5
  9.7
  8.2
  6.9
  5.8
  4.9
  4.1
  3.5
  2.9
  2.4
  2.0
  1.7
  1.4
  1.2
  1.0
  0.8
  0.7

Seaspan Corporation is an independent charter owner and manager of containerships. The Company charters pursuant to long-term, fixed-rate time charters with various container liner companies. As of February 20, 2017, it had operated a fleet of 88 containerships and had entered into contracts for the purchase of an additional eight new building containerships. Its operating vessels include YM Wish, YM Wellhead, YM Witness, COSCO Glory, COSCO Development, COSCO Harmony, COSCO Excellence, COSCO Hope, COSCO Fortune, Seaspan Yangtze, CSCL Zeebrugge, CSCL Long Beach, CSCL Oceania, COSCO Vietnam, MOL Emissary, Seaspan Chiwan, Seaspan Ningbo, Seaspan Felixstowe, CSCL Brisbane, Seaspan Santos, Seaspan Loncomilla, Seaspan Lingue, CSCL Montevideo, CSCL Callao, Guayaquil Bridge and Calicanto Bridge. The Company is engaged in the operation and management of vessel, including maintaining the vessel, periodic dry-docking, cleaning and painting and performing work required by regulations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Seaspan (SSW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -7.4
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -31
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -51.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 173.4%
Total Debt to Equity 193%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital -2.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Equity -7.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 77.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 76.7%
EBITDA Margin 21.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.3%
Operating Margin 0.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -15.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Net Profit Margin -15.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -146%

SSW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SSW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $831.324 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Seaspan. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Seaspan. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SSW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.9%, whose default value for SSW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Seaspan, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Seaspan.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SSW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 99.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SSW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Seaspan.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Seaspan. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SSW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SSW are equal to 571.4%.

Life of production assets of 23.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Seaspan operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SSW is equal to -10.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1949.432 million for Seaspan - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 133.506 million for Seaspan is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Seaspan at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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