Intrinsic value of Scorpio Tankers - STNG

Previous Close

$1.81

  Intrinsic Value

$1.28

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-29%

Previous close

$1.81

 
Intrinsic value

$1.28

 
Up/down potential

-29%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of STNG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  523
  535
  549
  564
  581
  600
  621
  643
  666
  692
  719
  749
  780
  813
  848
  885
  924
  966
  1,010
  1,056
  1,105
  1,157
  1,211
  1,269
  1,329
  1,393
  1,459
  1,530
  1,604
  1,682
Variable operating expenses, $m
  447
  457
  469
  482
  496
  512
  530
  549
  569
  591
  613
  638
  664
  692
  722
  754
  787
  823
  860
  900
  941
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,132
  1,186
  1,243
  1,303
  1,366
  1,433
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  447
  457
  469
  482
  496
  512
  530
  549
  569
  591
  613
  638
  664
  692
  722
  754
  787
  823
  860
  900
  941
  985
  1,032
  1,081
  1,132
  1,186
  1,243
  1,303
  1,366
  1,433
Operating income, $m
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  94
  98
  101
  107
  111
  116
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  171
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  249
EBITDA, $m
  222
  227
  232
  239
  246
  254
  263
  272
  282
  293
  305
  317
  330
  344
  359
  375
  391
  409
  428
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  563
  590
  618
  648
  679
  712
Interest expense (income), $m
  69
  149
  152
  155
  159
  163
  168
  173
  179
  185
  192
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  396
  415
  434
  455
Earnings before tax, $m
  -73
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -73
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,432
  4,534
  4,651
  4,781
  4,926
  5,085
  5,259
  5,446
  5,648
  5,865
  6,097
  6,344
  6,608
  6,888
  7,185
  7,500
  7,833
  8,185
  8,558
  8,951
  9,366
  9,803
  10,264
  10,750
  11,262
  11,801
  12,368
  12,965
  13,593
  14,253
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,432
  4,534
  4,651
  4,781
  4,926
  5,085
  5,259
  5,446
  5,648
  5,865
  6,097
  6,344
  6,608
  6,888
  7,185
  7,500
  7,833
  8,185
  8,558
  8,951
  9,366
  9,803
  10,264
  10,750
  11,262
  11,801
  12,368
  12,965
  13,593
  14,253
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
  0.118
Average production assets, $m
  3,671
  3,756
  3,852
  3,961
  4,081
  4,213
  4,356
  4,511
  4,679
  4,858
  5,050
  5,255
  5,473
  5,705
  5,951
  6,212
  6,488
  6,780
  7,089
  7,415
  7,758
  8,121
  8,503
  8,905
  9,329
  9,776
  10,245
  10,740
  11,260
  11,807
Working capital, $m
  48
  49
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
Total debt, $m
  2,812
  2,874
  2,945
  3,026
  3,115
  3,212
  3,318
  3,433
  3,557
  3,690
  3,832
  3,984
  4,145
  4,317
  4,499
  4,692
  4,896
  5,112
  5,341
  5,582
  5,836
  6,104
  6,387
  6,685
  6,998
  7,329
  7,676
  8,042
  8,427
  8,832
Total liabilities, $m
  2,717
  2,779
  2,851
  2,931
  3,020
  3,117
  3,224
  3,338
  3,462
  3,595
  3,737
  3,889
  4,050
  4,222
  4,404
  4,597
  4,802
  5,018
  5,246
  5,487
  5,741
  6,009
  6,292
  6,590
  6,904
  7,234
  7,582
  7,948
  8,333
  8,737
Total equity, $m
  1,715
  1,755
  1,800
  1,850
  1,906
  1,968
  2,035
  2,108
  2,186
  2,270
  2,359
  2,455
  2,557
  2,665
  2,780
  2,902
  3,031
  3,168
  3,312
  3,464
  3,625
  3,794
  3,972
  4,160
  4,358
  4,567
  4,787
  5,017
  5,260
  5,516
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,432
  4,534
  4,651
  4,781
  4,926
  5,085
  5,259
  5,446
  5,648
  5,865
  6,096
  6,344
  6,607
  6,887
  7,184
  7,499
  7,833
  8,186
  8,558
  8,951
  9,366
  9,803
  10,264
  10,750
  11,262
  11,801
  12,369
  12,965
  13,593
  14,253
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.640
  1.640
  1.640
  1.640
  1.630
  1.630
  1.630
  1.630
  1.630
  1.630
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.620
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.610
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
  1.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387
  0.387

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -73
  -74
  -75
  -77
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -112
  -116
  -121
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -144
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -206
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  145
  148
  152
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  185
  192
  198
  206
  215
  224
  233
  244
  254
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  349
  366
  383
  402
  421
  442
  463
Funds from operations, $m
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  202
  212
  222
  233
  245
  257
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Cash from operations, $m
  71
  74
  76
  78
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  123
  128
  134
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -141
  -144
  -147
  -151
  -155
  -160
  -165
  -171
  -177
  -183
  -191
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -244
  -254
  -266
  -278
  -291
  -304
  -318
  -333
  -349
  -366
  -383
  -402
  -421
  -442
New CAPEX, $m
  -70
  -84
  -97
  -108
  -120
  -132
  -143
  -155
  -167
  -180
  -192
  -205
  -218
  -232
  -246
  -261
  -276
  -292
  -308
  -326
  -344
  -362
  -382
  -403
  -424
  -446
  -470
  -494
  -520
  -547
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -211
  -228
  -244
  -259
  -275
  -292
  -308
  -326
  -344
  -363
  -383
  -403
  -424
  -447
  -470
  -494
  -520
  -546
  -574
  -604
  -635
  -666
  -700
  -736
  -773
  -812
  -853
  -896
  -941
  -989
Free cash flow, $m
  -140
  -155
  -168
  -181
  -194
  -208
  -221
  -235
  -250
  -264
  -280
  -296
  -312
  -329
  -347
  -366
  -385
  -406
  -427
  -449
  -472
  -497
  -522
  -549
  -577
  -606
  -637
  -669
  -703
  -739
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  44
  62
  71
  80
  89
  97
  106
  115
  124
  133
  142
  152
  161
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  330
  348
  366
  385
  405
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  103
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  182
  192
  201
  212
  222
  234
  245
  258
  270
  284
  298
  313
  329
  345
  362
  380
  399
  419
  440
  461
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  147
  175
  191
  207
  223
  239
  256
  273
  290
  308
  324
  344
  362
  384
  404
  427
  449
  474
  498
  525
  552
  581
  612
  643
  676
  710
  747
  785
  825
  866
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  7
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
  128
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -103
  -113
  -120
  -127
  -134
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -182
  -192
  -201
  -212
  -222
  -234
  -245
  -258
  -270
  -284
  -298
  -313
  -329
  -345
  -362
  -380
  -399
  -419
  -440
  -461
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -96
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -199
  -208
  -218
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -276
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -334
Discount rate, %
  10.20
  10.71
  11.25
  11.81
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.82
  16.61
  17.45
  18.32
  19.23
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.77
  27.06
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.54
  36.27
  38.08
  39.99
  41.98
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -87
  -75
  -70
  -64
  -59
  -53
  -47
  -41
  -36
  -30
  -25
  -21
  -17
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  92.0
  84.1
  76.6
  69.5
  63.0
  56.9
  51.4
  46.3
  41.6
  37.3
  33.5
  30.0
  26.8
  24.0
  21.5
  19.2
  17.1
  15.2
  13.6
  12.1
  10.8
  9.6
  8.5
  7.6
  6.8
  6.0
  5.3
  4.7
  4.2
  3.7

Scorpio Tankers Inc. (Scorpio Tankers) is engaged in the seaborne transportation of refined petroleum products in the international shipping markets. The Company operates through four segments: Handymax, MR, LR1/Panamax and LR2. As of March 15, 2017, the Company's fleet consisted of 78 owned tankers (22 LR2, 14 Handymax and 42 MR) with a weighted average age of approximately 2.3 years, and 19 time or bareboat chartered-in tankers, which it operated (one LR2, one LR1, eight MR and nine Handymax) (collectively referred to as its Operating Fleet). As of March 1, 2017, the Company's total oil tanker fleet (crude, products and product/chemical tankers) consisted of 4,754 ships with a combined capacity of 525.9 million deadweight tonnage. As of December 31, 2016, the Company also had contracts for the construction of one LR2 tanker and eight MR tankers. Its vessels include STI Brixton, STI Comandante, STI Finchley, STI Hammersmith, STI Larvotto, STI San Antonio and STI Regina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Scorpio Tankers (STNG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -12.6
Price to Sales 0.6
Price to Book 0.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 1.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 1.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -30.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 116.3%
Total Debt to Equity 143.2%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital -0.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.9%
Return On Equity -1.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 49.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.9%
EBITDA Margin 31.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.3%
Operating Margin 14.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 25.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -4.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Net Profit Margin -4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -348%

STNG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STNG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $512.732 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Scorpio Tankers. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Scorpio Tankers. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STNG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10.2%, whose default value for STNG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Scorpio Tankers, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Scorpio Tankers.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STNG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 85.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STNG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Scorpio Tankers.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Scorpio Tankers. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STNG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STNG are equal to 702%.

Life of production assets of 25.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Scorpio Tankers operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STNG is equal to 9.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1685.301 million for Scorpio Tankers - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 326.508 million for Scorpio Tankers is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Scorpio Tankers at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Scorpio Tankers: 3Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Zooming in on NYSE:STNGs 2.2% Dividend Yield   [Oct-18-18 12:48PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Scorpio Tankers Announces Update on Scrubbers   [Oct-15-18 04:25PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why Scorpio Tankers Inc.'s Shares Sank 11% Today   [Oct-10-18 11:41AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Scorpio Tankers: 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [08:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Stocks Insiders Just Bought This May   [May-09-18 09:02AM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Why Scorpio Tankers Stock Just Popped 15%   [Apr-25-18 11:43AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Scorpio Tankers: 1Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Scorpio Tankers Stock Popped 12% (Again)   [Apr-11-18 03:54PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Scorpio Tankers Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-14-18 07:45AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Scorpio Tankers reports 4Q loss   [06:59AM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for January 18th   [Jan-18-18 06:07AM  Zacks]
▶ 7 High-Risk, High-Reward Stocks to Buy Now   [Jan-11-18 03:18PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for January 10th   [Jan-10-18 06:55AM  Zacks]
▶ Scorpio Tankers reports 3Q loss   [Nov-16-17 07:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Scorpio Tankers reports 2Q loss   [Sep-18-17 07:32PM  Associated Press]

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