Intrinsic value of Seagate Technology - STX

Previous Close

$56.48

  Intrinsic Value

$17.63

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-69%

Previous close

$56.48

 
Intrinsic value

$17.63

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of STX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 16.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  10,986
  11,239
  11,528
  11,852
  12,212
  12,606
  13,035
  13,500
  14,000
  14,538
  15,113
  15,726
  16,379
  17,073
  17,810
  18,590
  19,416
  20,290
  21,213
  22,188
  23,216
  24,301
  25,444
  26,649
  27,917
  29,253
  30,659
  32,138
  33,695
  35,332
Variable operating expenses, $m
  10,544
  10,783
  11,056
  11,363
  11,703
  12,076
  12,482
  12,921
  13,395
  13,903
  14,295
  14,875
  15,493
  16,149
  16,846
  17,584
  18,366
  19,192
  20,065
  20,987
  21,960
  22,986
  24,067
  25,207
  26,407
  27,670
  29,000
  30,400
  31,872
  33,420
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  10,544
  10,783
  11,056
  11,363
  11,703
  12,076
  12,482
  12,921
  13,395
  13,903
  14,295
  14,875
  15,493
  16,149
  16,846
  17,584
  18,366
  19,192
  20,065
  20,987
  21,960
  22,986
  24,067
  25,207
  26,407
  27,670
  29,000
  30,400
  31,872
  33,420
Operating income, $m
  442
  456
  472
  489
  509
  530
  553
  578
  606
  635
  818
  851
  886
  924
  964
  1,006
  1,050
  1,098
  1,148
  1,200
  1,256
  1,315
  1,377
  1,442
  1,510
  1,583
  1,659
  1,739
  1,823
  1,912
EBITDA, $m
  964
  986
  1,011
  1,039
  1,071
  1,106
  1,143
  1,184
  1,228
  1,275
  1,325
  1,379
  1,436
  1,497
  1,562
  1,630
  1,703
  1,779
  1,860
  1,946
  2,036
  2,131
  2,232
  2,337
  2,448
  2,566
  2,689
  2,819
  2,955
  3,099
Interest expense (income), $m
  172
  271
  280
  290
  301
  314
  328
  344
  361
  379
  399
  421
  443
  468
  494
  521
  550
  581
  614
  649
  685
  724
  765
  808
  853
  901
  951
  1,004
  1,060
  1,118
  1,180
Earnings before tax, $m
  171
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  209
  217
  226
  235
  397
  407
  418
  430
  442
  455
  469
  484
  499
  515
  532
  550
  569
  589
  610
  632
  655
  679
  705
  732
Tax expense, $m
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  107
  110
  113
  116
  119
  123
  127
  131
  135
  139
  144
  149
  154
  159
  165
  171
  177
  183
  190
  198
Net income, $m
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  290
  297
  305
  314
  323
  332
  343
  353
  364
  376
  389
  402
  415
  430
  445
  461
  478
  496
  514
  534

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  9,455
  9,672
  9,921
  10,200
  10,509
  10,848
  11,218
  11,618
  12,049
  12,511
  13,006
  13,534
  14,096
  14,693
  15,327
  15,998
  16,709
  17,461
  18,256
  19,094
  19,979
  20,913
  21,897
  22,933
  24,025
  25,175
  26,385
  27,658
  28,997
  30,406
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  9,455
  9,672
  9,921
  10,200
  10,509
  10,848
  11,218
  11,618
  12,049
  12,511
  13,006
  13,534
  14,096
  14,693
  15,327
  15,998
  16,709
  17,461
  18,256
  19,094
  19,979
  20,913
  21,897
  22,933
  24,025
  25,175
  26,385
  27,658
  28,997
  30,406
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
  1.162
Average production assets, $m
  3,691
  3,776
  3,873
  3,982
  4,103
  4,236
  4,380
  4,536
  4,704
  4,885
  5,078
  5,284
  5,503
  5,737
  5,984
  6,246
  6,524
  6,817
  7,128
  7,455
  7,801
  8,165
  8,549
  8,954
  9,380
  9,829
  10,301
  10,798
  11,321
  11,872
Working capital, $m
  -659
  -674
  -692
  -711
  -733
  -756
  -782
  -810
  -840
  -872
  -907
  -944
  -983
  -1,024
  -1,069
  -1,115
  -1,165
  -1,217
  -1,273
  -1,331
  -1,393
  -1,458
  -1,527
  -1,599
  -1,675
  -1,755
  -1,840
  -1,928
  -2,022
  -2,120
Total debt, $m
  5,182
  5,367
  5,579
  5,817
  6,081
  6,371
  6,686
  7,027
  7,394
  7,789
  8,211
  8,661
  9,141
  9,650
  10,191
  10,764
  11,370
  12,011
  12,689
  13,405
  14,159
  14,956
  15,795
  16,679
  17,610
  18,591
  19,623
  20,709
  21,852
  23,053
Total liabilities, $m
  8,065
  8,250
  8,462
  8,700
  8,964
  9,254
  9,569
  9,910
  10,277
  10,672
  11,094
  11,544
  12,024
  12,533
  13,074
  13,647
  14,253
  14,894
  15,572
  16,288
  17,042
  17,839
  18,678
  19,562
  20,493
  21,474
  22,506
  23,592
  24,735
  25,936
Total equity, $m
  1,390
  1,422
  1,458
  1,499
  1,545
  1,595
  1,649
  1,708
  1,771
  1,839
  1,912
  1,989
  2,072
  2,160
  2,253
  2,352
  2,456
  2,567
  2,684
  2,807
  2,937
  3,074
  3,219
  3,371
  3,532
  3,701
  3,879
  4,066
  4,263
  4,470
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  9,455
  9,672
  9,920
  10,199
  10,509
  10,849
  11,218
  11,618
  12,048
  12,511
  13,006
  13,533
  14,096
  14,693
  15,327
  15,999
  16,709
  17,461
  18,256
  19,095
  19,979
  20,913
  21,897
  22,933
  24,025
  25,175
  26,385
  27,658
  28,998
  30,406
Debt-to-equity ratio
  3.730
  3.780
  3.830
  3.880
  3.940
  3.990
  4.050
  4.110
  4.170
  4.240
  4.290
  4.350
  4.410
  4.470
  4.520
  4.580
  4.630
  4.680
  4.730
  4.780
  4.820
  4.860
  4.910
  4.950
  4.990
  5.020
  5.060
  5.090
  5.130
  5.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147
  0.147

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  290
  297
  305
  314
  323
  332
  343
  353
  364
  376
  389
  402
  415
  430
  445
  461
  478
  496
  514
  534
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  521
  530
  539
  550
  562
  575
  590
  605
  622
  640
  508
  528
  550
  574
  598
  625
  652
  682
  713
  746
  780
  817
  855
  895
  938
  983
  1,030
  1,080
  1,132
  1,187
Funds from operations, $m
  646
  658
  672
  687
  704
  723
  743
  764
  787
  812
  798
  826
  856
  888
  921
  957
  995
  1,035
  1,077
  1,122
  1,169
  1,218
  1,270
  1,325
  1,383
  1,444
  1,508
  1,576
  1,647
  1,721
Change in working capital, $m
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
Cash from operations, $m
  659
  673
  689
  707
  726
  746
  768
  792
  817
  844
  832
  863
  895
  929
  966
  1,004
  1,044
  1,087
  1,132
  1,180
  1,230
  1,283
  1,339
  1,398
  1,459
  1,524
  1,593
  1,664
  1,740
  1,819
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -362
  -369
  -378
  -387
  -398
  -410
  -424
  -438
  -454
  -470
  -488
  -508
  -528
  -550
  -574
  -598
  -625
  -652
  -682
  -713
  -746
  -780
  -817
  -855
  -895
  -938
  -983
  -1,030
  -1,080
  -1,132
New CAPEX, $m
  -72
  -85
  -97
  -109
  -121
  -132
  -144
  -156
  -168
  -181
  -193
  -206
  -219
  -233
  -247
  -262
  -278
  -294
  -310
  -327
  -346
  -364
  -384
  -405
  -426
  -449
  -472
  -497
  -523
  -550
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -434
  -454
  -475
  -496
  -519
  -542
  -568
  -594
  -622
  -651
  -681
  -714
  -747
  -783
  -821
  -860
  -903
  -946
  -992
  -1,040
  -1,092
  -1,144
  -1,201
  -1,260
  -1,321
  -1,387
  -1,455
  -1,527
  -1,603
  -1,682
Free cash flow, $m
  225
  219
  215
  211
  207
  204
  201
  198
  196
  193
  150
  149
  147
  146
  144
  143
  142
  141
  141
  140
  139
  139
  138
  138
  138
  137
  137
  137
  137
  137
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  161
  185
  212
  238
  264
  289
  315
  341
  368
  394
  422
  450
  479
  509
  541
  573
  606
  641
  678
  715
  755
  796
  839
  884
  931
  981
  1,032
  1,086
  1,143
  1,202
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  161
  185
  212
  238
  264
  289
  315
  341
  368
  394
  422
  450
  479
  509
  541
  573
  606
  641
  678
  715
  755
  796
  839
  884
  931
  981
  1,032
  1,086
  1,143
  1,202
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  386
  405
  427
  449
  471
  493
  516
  539
  563
  588
  572
  599
  627
  655
  685
  716
  749
  783
  818
  855
  894
  935
  977
  1,022
  1,069
  1,118
  1,169
  1,223
  1,280
  1,339
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -45
  -50
  -54
  -59
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -169
  -178
  -187
  -197
  -207
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  140
  143
  146
  150
  154
  159
  164
  169
  175
  182
  189
  196
  204
  213
  222
  232
  242
  252
  264
  276
  288
  302
  316
  331
  346
  363
  380
  399
  418
  438
Cash available for distribution, $m
  360
  373
  390
  408
  425
  443
  461
  480
  500
  520
  500
  521
  544
  567
  592
  618
  644
  672
  701
  732
  764
  798
  833
  870
  908
  949
  991
  1,036
  1,083
  1,132
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  345
  341
  340
  336
  330
  322
  312
  300
  287
  273
  237
  223
  207
  190
  174
  157
  140
  124
  108
  93
  79
  66
  55
  44
  35
  28
  21
  16
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Seagate Technology public limited company is a provider of electronic data storage technology and solutions. The Company's principal products are hard disk drives (HDDs). In addition to HDDs, it produces a range of electronic data storage products, including solid state hybrid drives, solid state drives, peripheral component interconnect express (PCIe) cards and serial advanced technology architecture (SATA) controllers. Its storage technology portfolio also includes storage subsystems and high performance computing solutions. Its products are designed for applications in enterprise servers and storage systems, client compute applications and client non-compute applications. It designs, fabricates and assembles various components found in its disk drives, including read/write heads and recording media. Its design and manufacturing operations are based on technology platforms that are used to produce various disk drive products that serve multiple data storage applications and markets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Seagate Technology (STX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 21.3
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 12.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -26.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 368.1%
Total Debt to Equity 368.1%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Return On Total Capital 12.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Return On Equity 52.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.8%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
EBITDA Margin 16.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.6%
Operating Margin 9.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.1%
Net Profit Margin 7.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Effective Tax Rate 5.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Payout Ratio 72.7%

STX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the STX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $10771 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Seagate Technology. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Seagate Technology. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our STX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for STX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Seagate Technology, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Seagate Technology.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of STX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for STX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Seagate Technology.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Seagate Technology. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the STX stock is equal to 1.3%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for STX are equal to 33.6%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Seagate Technology operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for STX is equal to -6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1364 million for Seagate Technology - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 296 million for Seagate Technology is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Seagate Technology at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $16.7 billion.

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