Intrinsic value of Supernus Pharmaceuticals - SUPN

Previous Close

$43.06

  Intrinsic Value

$53.83

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+25%

Previous close

$43.06

 
Intrinsic value

$53.83

 
Up/down potential

+25%

 
Rating

buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SUPN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  31.30
  28.67
  26.30
  24.17
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.25
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.41
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
Revenue, $m
  397
  511
  645
  801
  979
  1,180
  1,404
  1,651
  1,920
  2,212
  2,525
  2,860
  3,215
  3,591
  3,987
  4,402
  4,837
  5,291
  5,764
  6,257
  6,770
  7,303
  7,857
  8,433
  9,032
  9,654
  10,301
  10,974
  11,673
  12,401
Variable operating expenses, $m
  189
  243
  305
  378
  462
  556
  661
  776
  902
  1,039
  1,182
  1,339
  1,505
  1,681
  1,866
  2,060
  2,264
  2,476
  2,698
  2,929
  3,169
  3,418
  3,678
  3,948
  4,228
  4,519
  4,822
  5,137
  5,464
  5,805
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  59
  61
  62
  63
  65
  66
  68
  69
  71
  72
  74
  75
  77
  79
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  94
  96
  98
  100
  102
  104
  107
  109
  111
Total operating expenses, $m
  248
  304
  367
  441
  527
  622
  729
  845
  973
  1,111
  1,256
  1,414
  1,582
  1,760
  1,946
  2,142
  2,348
  2,562
  2,786
  3,019
  3,261
  3,512
  3,774
  4,046
  4,328
  4,621
  4,926
  5,244
  5,573
  5,916
Operating income, $m
  148
  207
  278
  359
  452
  558
  676
  805
  947
  1,101
  1,270
  1,446
  1,633
  1,832
  2,040
  2,259
  2,489
  2,728
  2,978
  3,239
  3,509
  3,791
  4,084
  4,388
  4,704
  5,033
  5,375
  5,730
  6,100
  6,485
EBITDA, $m
  158
  219
  291
  375
  471
  580
  701
  834
  980
  1,138
  1,308
  1,489
  1,682
  1,886
  2,101
  2,326
  2,562
  2,809
  3,066
  3,334
  3,612
  3,902
  4,203
  4,516
  4,842
  5,180
  5,531
  5,897
  6,278
  6,674
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  37
  82
  134
  195
  265
  343
  431
  528
  633
  747
  870
  1,001
  1,140
  1,287
  1,442
  1,604
  1,774
  1,952
  2,137
  2,330
  2,530
  2,739
  2,956
  3,181
  3,415
  3,659
  3,912
  4,175
  4,449
Earnings before tax, $m
  148
  170
  196
  225
  257
  293
  332
  374
  420
  468
  522
  576
  633
  692
  753
  818
  885
  954
  1,027
  1,102
  1,180
  1,261
  1,345
  1,432
  1,523
  1,618
  1,716
  1,818
  1,925
  2,036
Tax expense, $m
  40
  46
  53
  61
  69
  79
  90
  101
  113
  126
  141
  156
  171
  187
  203
  221
  239
  258
  277
  297
  319
  340
  363
  387
  411
  437
  463
  491
  520
  550
Net income, $m
  108
  124
  143
  164
  188
  214
  242
  273
  306
  341
  381
  421
  462
  505
  550
  597
  646
  697
  749
  804
  861
  920
  982
  1,046
  1,112
  1,181
  1,253
  1,327
  1,405
  1,487

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  536
  689
  870
  1,081
  1,321
  1,592
  1,895
  2,228
  2,591
  2,985
  3,408
  3,860
  4,339
  4,846
  5,380
  5,941
  6,527
  7,140
  7,779
  8,444
  9,136
  9,856
  10,604
  11,381
  12,189
  13,029
  13,901
  14,809
  15,753
  16,736
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  536
  689
  870
  1,081
  1,321
  1,592
  1,895
  2,228
  2,591
  2,985
  3,408
  3,860
  4,339
  4,846
  5,380
  5,941
  6,527
  7,140
  7,779
  8,444
  9,136
  9,856
  10,604
  11,381
  12,189
  13,029
  13,901
  14,809
  15,753
  16,736
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.741
  0.742
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
  0.741
Average production assets, $m
  30
  39
  49
  61
  74
  90
  107
  125
  146
  168
  192
  217
  244
  273
  303
  335
  368
  402
  438
  476
  515
  555
  597
  641
  686
  734
  783
  834
  887
  943
Working capital, $m
  -46
  -59
  -74
  -92
  -113
  -136
  -161
  -190
  -221
  -254
  -290
  -329
  -370
  -413
  -458
  -506
  -556
  -608
  -663
  -720
  -779
  -840
  -904
  -970
  -1,039
  -1,110
  -1,185
  -1,262
  -1,342
  -1,426
Total debt, $m
  49
  108
  178
  259
  352
  456
  572
  701
  841
  992
  1,155
  1,329
  1,514
  1,709
  1,914
  2,130
  2,356
  2,592
  2,838
  3,094
  3,360
  3,637
  3,925
  4,225
  4,536
  4,859
  5,195
  5,545
  5,908
  6,286
Total liabilities, $m
  206
  265
  335
  416
  509
  613
  729
  858
  998
  1,149
  1,312
  1,486
  1,671
  1,866
  2,071
  2,287
  2,513
  2,749
  2,995
  3,251
  3,517
  3,794
  4,082
  4,382
  4,693
  5,016
  5,352
  5,701
  6,065
  6,443
Total equity, $m
  329
  424
  535
  665
  813
  979
  1,165
  1,370
  1,594
  1,836
  2,096
  2,374
  2,669
  2,980
  3,309
  3,653
  4,014
  4,391
  4,784
  5,193
  5,619
  6,061
  6,521
  6,999
  7,496
  8,013
  8,549
  9,108
  9,688
  10,293
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  535
  689
  870
  1,081
  1,322
  1,592
  1,894
  2,228
  2,592
  2,985
  3,408
  3,860
  4,340
  4,846
  5,380
  5,940
  6,527
  7,140
  7,779
  8,444
  9,136
  9,855
  10,603
  11,381
  12,189
  13,029
  13,901
  14,809
  15,753
  16,736
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.150
  0.260
  0.330
  0.390
  0.430
  0.470
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615
  0.615

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  108
  124
  143
  164
  188
  214
  242
  273
  306
  341
  381
  421
  462
  505
  550
  597
  646
  697
  749
  804
  861
  920
  982
  1,046
  1,112
  1,181
  1,253
  1,327
  1,405
  1,487
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  11
  13
  16
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  38
  43
  49
  55
  61
  67
  74
  80
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  167
  177
  189
Funds from operations, $m
  118
  136
  156
  180
  206
  236
  267
  302
  339
  379
  420
  464
  511
  560
  611
  664
  719
  777
  837
  899
  964
  1,031
  1,101
  1,174
  1,249
  1,328
  1,409
  1,494
  1,583
  1,675
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  -13
  -15
  -18
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
Cash from operations, $m
  129
  149
  172
  198
  227
  259
  293
  330
  370
  412
  456
  503
  552
  603
  656
  712
  769
  829
  891
  956
  1,023
  1,093
  1,165
  1,240
  1,318
  1,399
  1,484
  1,572
  1,663
  1,759
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -74
  -80
  -88
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -119
  -128
  -137
  -147
  -157
  -167
  -177
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -15
  -18
  -22
  -26
  -30
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -63
  -70
  -78
  -85
  -93
  -100
  -109
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -153
  -163
  -173
  -184
  -196
  -208
  -220
  -232
Free cash flow, $m
  117
  134
  154
  176
  201
  229
  258
  290
  325
  361
  398
  439
  481
  525
  571
  619
  669
  721
  775
  831
  889
  949
  1,012
  1,077
  1,144
  1,215
  1,288
  1,364
  1,443
  1,526
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  49
  59
  70
  81
  93
  104
  116
  128
  140
  152
  163
  174
  185
  195
  206
  216
  226
  236
  246
  256
  266
  277
  288
  299
  311
  323
  336
  349
  364
  378
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  49
  59
  70
  81
  93
  104
  116
  128
  140
  152
  163
  174
  185
  195
  206
  216
  226
  236
  246
  256
  266
  277
  288
  299
  311
  323
  336
  349
  364
  378
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  166
  193
  224
  257
  294
  333
  375
  419
  465
  512
  561
  613
  666
  721
  777
  835
  895
  957
  1,021
  1,087
  1,155
  1,226
  1,300
  1,376
  1,455
  1,538
  1,624
  1,713
  1,807
  1,904
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -79
  -94
  -111
  -129
  -148
  -167
  -186
  -205
  -224
  -242
  -260
  -278
  -295
  -312
  -328
  -345
  -361
  -377
  -393
  -409
  -426
  -443
  -460
  -478
  -497
  -516
  -537
  -558
  -581
  -604
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  104
  99
  112
  128
  146
  166
  189
  214
  241
  270
  301
  335
  371
  409
  449
  491
  534
  580
  628
  678
  730
  784
  840
  898
  959
  1,022
  1,087
  1,155
  1,226
  1,300
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  100
  90
  98
  105
  113
  121
  128
  134
  138
  142
  143
  143
  141
  137
  132
  125
  116
  107
  97
  86
  75
  65
  55
  46
  37
  30
  23
  18
  13
  10
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a pharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing products for the treatment of central nervous system diseases. The Company offers Oxtellar XR (extended-release oxcarbazepine) and Trokendi XR (extended-release topiramate), its two treatments for patients with epilepsy. In addition, it is developing multiple product candidates in psychiatry to address unmet medical needs and market opportunities for the treatment of impulsive aggression (IA) and for the treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). It is developing SPN-810 (molindone hydrochloride) to treat IA in patients having ADHD. It is developing SPN-812 (viloxazine hydrochloride) as a candidate to treat patients having ADHD. The Company's neurology portfolio consists of Oxtellar XR and Trokendi XR, which are the first once-daily extended release oxcarbazepine and topiramate products, respectively, indicated for epilepsy in the United States market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Supernus Pharmaceuticals (SUPN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.6
Price to Sales 10
Price to Book 11.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 32.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 33.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 46.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 2.1%
Total Debt to Equity 2.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 36.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.1%
Return On Total Capital 62.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.1%
Return On Equity 65%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 19%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 94.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 94.2%
EBITDA Margin 24.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Operating Margin 25.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.6%
Net Profit Margin 42.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Effective Tax Rate -82%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

SUPN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SUPN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $302.238 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Supernus Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Supernus Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SUPN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 31.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SUPN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Supernus Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Supernus Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SUPN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 48%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $58 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SUPN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 75.3% for Supernus Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Supernus Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SUPN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SUPN are equal to 7.6%.

Life of production assets of 5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Supernus Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SUPN is equal to -11.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $267.48 million for Supernus Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 51.796 million for Supernus Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Supernus Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.2 billion.

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