Intrinsic value of Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. - SVA

Previous Close

$6.47

  Intrinsic Value

$198.02

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+999%

Previous close

$6.47

 
Intrinsic value

$198.02

 
Up/down potential

+999%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SVA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  278
  430
  643
  933
  1,317
  1,810
  2,430
  3,191
  4,106
  5,186
  6,439
  7,873
  9,489
  11,291
  13,276
  15,443
  17,789
  20,310
  23,002
  25,861
  28,884
  32,066
  35,406
  38,902
  42,554
  46,362
  50,328
  54,454
  58,744
  63,203
Variable operating expenses, $m
  157
  242
  362
  525
  741
  1,019
  1,368
  1,796
  2,311
  2,920
  3,625
  4,432
  5,343
  6,357
  7,474
  8,694
  10,015
  11,435
  12,950
  14,560
  16,261
  18,053
  19,934
  21,902
  23,958
  26,102
  28,335
  30,657
  33,073
  35,583
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  42
  43
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  53
  54
  55
  56
  58
  59
  60
  61
Total operating expenses, $m
  190
  275
  396
  560
  777
  1,055
  1,405
  1,834
  2,350
  2,960
  3,666
  4,474
  5,385
  6,400
  7,518
  8,739
  10,061
  11,482
  12,998
  14,609
  16,312
  18,105
  19,987
  21,956
  24,013
  26,158
  28,393
  30,716
  33,133
  35,644
Operating income, $m
  89
  155
  247
  373
  540
  755
  1,025
  1,356
  1,755
  2,226
  2,773
  3,399
  4,104
  4,891
  5,757
  6,703
  7,727
  8,828
  10,004
  11,252
  12,572
  13,961
  15,420
  16,946
  18,541
  20,204
  21,936
  23,737
  25,611
  27,558
EBITDA, $m
  96
  166
  264
  398
  575
  803
  1,090
  1,442
  1,865
  2,365
  2,946
  3,610
  4,358
  5,193
  6,112
  7,116
  8,203
  9,372
  10,619
  11,944
  13,344
  14,819
  16,367
  17,987
  19,679
  21,444
  23,282
  25,194
  27,182
  29,249
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  6
  12
  21
  33
  48
  68
  93
  124
  161
  204
  255
  313
  378
  450
  530
  618
  712
  814
  923
  1,038
  1,160
  1,288
  1,423
  1,564
  1,711
  1,864
  2,024
  2,191
  2,364
Earnings before tax, $m
  87
  148
  234
  352
  507
  706
  956
  1,263
  1,631
  2,066
  2,569
  3,144
  3,792
  4,513
  5,307
  6,173
  7,110
  8,116
  9,190
  10,329
  11,534
  12,801
  14,132
  15,524
  16,977
  18,493
  20,071
  21,713
  23,420
  25,194
Tax expense, $m
  23
  40
  63
  95
  137
  191
  258
  341
  440
  558
  694
  849
  1,024
  1,218
  1,433
  1,667
  1,920
  2,191
  2,481
  2,789
  3,114
  3,456
  3,816
  4,191
  4,584
  4,993
  5,419
  5,863
  6,323
  6,802
Net income, $m
  63
  108
  171
  257
  370
  516
  698
  922
  1,191
  1,508
  1,875
  2,295
  2,768
  3,294
  3,874
  4,506
  5,190
  5,924
  6,708
  7,540
  8,420
  9,345
  10,316
  11,332
  12,393
  13,500
  14,652
  15,851
  17,097
  18,392

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  412
  637
  953
  1,383
  1,951
  2,682
  3,600
  4,727
  6,082
  7,683
  9,540
  11,664
  14,059
  16,727
  19,668
  22,878
  26,354
  30,089
  34,077
  38,313
  42,791
  47,505
  52,454
  57,633
  63,043
  68,685
  74,560
  80,672
  87,028
  93,634
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  412
  637
  953
  1,383
  1,951
  2,682
  3,600
  4,727
  6,082
  7,683
  9,540
  11,664
  14,059
  16,727
  19,668
  22,878
  26,354
  30,089
  34,077
  38,313
  42,791
  47,505
  52,454
  57,633
  63,043
  68,685
  74,560
  80,672
  87,028
  93,634
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
  0.675
Average production assets, $m
  115
  177
  265
  385
  543
  746
  1,001
  1,315
  1,692
  2,137
  2,653
  3,244
  3,910
  4,652
  5,470
  6,362
  7,329
  8,368
  9,477
  10,655
  11,900
  13,211
  14,587
  16,028
  17,532
  19,101
  20,735
  22,435
  24,202
  26,040
Working capital, $m
  22
  34
  50
  73
  103
  141
  190
  249
  320
  404
  502
  614
  740
  881
  1,036
  1,205
  1,388
  1,584
  1,794
  2,017
  2,253
  2,501
  2,762
  3,034
  3,319
  3,616
  3,926
  4,247
  4,582
  4,930
Total debt, $m
  118
  231
  390
  607
  893
  1,262
  1,725
  2,293
  2,976
  3,782
  4,718
  5,789
  6,996
  8,340
  9,823
  11,441
  13,193
  15,075
  17,085
  19,220
  21,477
  23,853
  26,347
  28,957
  31,684
  34,527
  37,488
  40,569
  43,772
  47,102
Total liabilities, $m
  208
  321
  480
  697
  983
  1,352
  1,814
  2,382
  3,066
  3,872
  4,808
  5,878
  7,085
  8,430
  9,913
  11,531
  13,282
  15,165
  17,175
  19,310
  21,566
  23,943
  26,437
  29,047
  31,774
  34,617
  37,578
  40,659
  43,862
  47,191
Total equity, $m
  205
  316
  473
  686
  968
  1,330
  1,786
  2,345
  3,017
  3,811
  4,732
  5,785
  6,973
  8,297
  9,755
  11,348
  13,072
  14,924
  16,902
  19,003
  21,224
  23,563
  26,017
  28,586
  31,269
  34,068
  36,982
  40,013
  43,166
  46,442
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  413
  637
  953
  1,383
  1,951
  2,682
  3,600
  4,727
  6,083
  7,683
  9,540
  11,663
  14,058
  16,727
  19,668
  22,879
  26,354
  30,089
  34,077
  38,313
  42,790
  47,506
  52,454
  57,633
  63,043
  68,685
  74,560
  80,672
  87,028
  93,633
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.580
  0.730
  0.830
  0.890
  0.920
  0.950
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496
  0.496

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  63
  108
  171
  257
  370
  516
  698
  922
  1,191
  1,508
  1,875
  2,295
  2,768
  3,294
  3,874
  4,506
  5,190
  5,924
  6,708
  7,540
  8,420
  9,345
  10,316
  11,332
  12,393
  13,500
  14,652
  15,851
  17,097
  18,392
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  7
  12
  17
  25
  35
  48
  65
  85
  110
  139
  172
  211
  254
  302
  355
  413
  476
  543
  615
  692
  773
  858
  947
  1,041
  1,138
  1,240
  1,346
  1,457
  1,572
  1,691
Funds from operations, $m
  71
  120
  188
  282
  405
  564
  763
  1,007
  1,301
  1,647
  2,048
  2,506
  3,022
  3,596
  4,229
  4,919
  5,666
  6,468
  7,324
  8,232
  9,192
  10,203
  11,263
  12,373
  13,532
  14,740
  15,998
  17,307
  18,668
  20,083
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  12
  17
  23
  30
  38
  48
  59
  71
  84
  98
  112
  126
  140
  155
  169
  183
  197
  210
  223
  236
  248
  261
  273
  285
  297
  309
  322
  335
  348
Cash from operations, $m
  63
  108
  172
  259
  375
  526
  715
  948
  1,229
  1,562
  1,950
  2,394
  2,896
  3,456
  4,074
  4,750
  5,483
  6,271
  7,114
  8,009
  8,957
  9,955
  11,003
  12,100
  13,247
  14,443
  15,689
  16,986
  18,334
  19,735
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -5
  -7
  -12
  -17
  -25
  -35
  -48
  -65
  -85
  -110
  -139
  -172
  -211
  -254
  -302
  -355
  -413
  -476
  -543
  -615
  -692
  -773
  -858
  -947
  -1,041
  -1,138
  -1,240
  -1,346
  -1,457
  -1,572
New CAPEX, $m
  -43
  -63
  -88
  -120
  -158
  -203
  -255
  -313
  -377
  -445
  -517
  -591
  -666
  -742
  -818
  -893
  -967
  -1,039
  -1,109
  -1,178
  -1,245
  -1,311
  -1,376
  -1,440
  -1,505
  -1,569
  -1,634
  -1,700
  -1,768
  -1,837
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -48
  -70
  -100
  -137
  -183
  -238
  -303
  -378
  -462
  -555
  -656
  -763
  -877
  -996
  -1,120
  -1,248
  -1,380
  -1,515
  -1,652
  -1,793
  -1,937
  -2,084
  -2,234
  -2,387
  -2,546
  -2,707
  -2,874
  -3,046
  -3,225
  -3,409
Free cash flow, $m
  15
  38
  72
  122
  192
  287
  411
  570
  767
  1,008
  1,295
  1,631
  2,019
  2,460
  2,954
  3,502
  4,103
  4,757
  5,461
  6,216
  7,020
  7,871
  8,769
  9,713
  10,702
  11,736
  12,815
  13,939
  15,109
  16,326
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  78
  113
  159
  217
  286
  368
  463
  568
  683
  806
  936
  1,070
  1,207
  1,345
  1,482
  1,618
  1,752
  1,882
  2,010
  2,135
  2,257
  2,376
  2,494
  2,611
  2,727
  2,843
  2,961
  3,081
  3,203
  3,329
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  91
  116
  159
  217
  286
  368
  463
  568
  683
  806
  936
  1,070
  1,207
  1,345
  1,482
  1,618
  1,752
  1,882
  2,010
  2,135
  2,257
  2,376
  2,494
  2,611
  2,727
  2,843
  2,961
  3,081
  3,203
  3,329
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  107
  154
  232
  339
  479
  656
  874
  1,138
  1,450
  1,814
  2,231
  2,701
  3,226
  3,805
  4,437
  5,120
  5,855
  6,639
  7,471
  8,351
  9,276
  10,247
  11,263
  12,323
  13,428
  14,579
  15,776
  17,020
  18,313
  19,656
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -77
  -111
  -157
  -213
  -282
  -363
  -455
  -559
  -672
  -794
  -921
  -1,053
  -1,188
  -1,323
  -1,459
  -1,592
  -1,724
  -1,853
  -1,978
  -2,101
  -2,221
  -2,338
  -2,454
  -2,569
  -2,683
  -2,798
  -2,914
  -3,032
  -3,152
  -3,277
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  53
  43
  75
  126
  197
  293
  419
  579
  778
  1,020
  1,310
  1,648
  2,038
  2,481
  2,978
  3,528
  4,131
  4,786
  5,493
  6,250
  7,055
  7,909
  8,808
  9,754
  10,745
  11,781
  12,862
  13,988
  15,160
  16,379
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  51
  39
  65
  104
  153
  213
  283
  362
  447
  535
  622
  703
  775
  833
  874
  897
  899
  881
  846
  794
  730
  656
  577
  497
  418
  344
  276
  216
  165
  123
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  96.6
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1
  96.1

Sinovac Biotech Ltd. (Sinovac) is a holding company. The Company is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the research, development, manufacturing and commercialization of vaccines that protect against human infectious diseases, including hepatitis A, hepatitis B, seasonal influenza, Haemagglutinase5 Neuraminidase1 (H5N1) and Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic influenza and mumps. The Company's pipeline consists of vaccine candidates in the clinical and pre-clinical development Phases in China. The Company is engaged in the sales, marketing, manufacturing and development of vaccines for infectious disease. The Company develops various products, including Healive, Bilive, Anflu, Panflu Whole Viron Pandemic Influenza Vaccine, Split Viron Pandemic Influenza Vaccine, Panflu.1, RabEnd, Mumps Vaccine, Enterovirus 71 (EV71) Vaccine, Pneumococcal Polysaccharide Vaccine, Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine, Rubella Vaccine, Varicella Vaccine and Sabin Inactivated Polio Vaccine.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. (SVA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -368.9
Price to Sales 5.1
Price to Book 3.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -24.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 160%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 21.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 7.8%
Total Debt to Equity 37.1%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.3%
Return On Total Capital -0.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Return On Equity -0.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 69.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 72.4%
EBITDA Margin 9.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 0%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Net Profit Margin -1.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

SVA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SVA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $174 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Sinovac Biotech, Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Sinovac Biotech, Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SVA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SVA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Sinovac Biotech, Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Sinovac Biotech, Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SVA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 56.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $32 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SVA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Sinovac Biotech, Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Sinovac Biotech, Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SVA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SVA are equal to 41.2%.

Life of production assets of 15.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SVA is equal to 7.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $151.152 million for Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 71.122 million for Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Sinovac Biotech, Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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