Intrinsic value of Supervalu - SVU

Previous Close

$32.49

  Intrinsic Value

$230.95

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+611%

Previous close

$32.49

 
Intrinsic value

$230.95

 
Up/down potential

+611%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SVU stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  35.20
  32.18
  29.46
  27.02
  24.81
  22.83
  21.05
  19.44
  18.00
  16.70
  15.53
  14.48
  13.53
  12.68
  11.91
  11.22
  10.60
  10.04
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
Revenue, $m
  19,140
  25,300
  32,753
  41,602
  51,925
  63,781
  77,207
  92,219
  108,819
  126,992
  146,714
  167,953
  190,676
  214,847
  240,433
  267,405
  295,739
  325,421
  356,443
  388,807
  422,522
  457,611
  494,101
  532,031
  571,449
  612,410
  654,981
  699,232
  745,245
  793,108
Variable operating expenses, $m
  18,764
  24,773
  32,044
  40,677
  50,747
  62,314
  75,411
  90,057
  106,251
  123,980
  143,129
  163,849
  186,017
  209,598
  234,558
  260,871
  288,513
  317,470
  347,733
  379,306
  412,198
  446,429
  482,027
  519,031
  557,485
  597,446
  638,976
  682,146
  727,035
  773,728
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  18,764
  24,773
  32,044
  40,677
  50,747
  62,314
  75,411
  90,057
  106,251
  123,980
  143,129
  163,849
  186,017
  209,598
  234,558
  260,871
  288,513
  317,470
  347,733
  379,306
  412,198
  446,429
  482,027
  519,031
  557,485
  597,446
  638,976
  682,146
  727,035
  773,728
Operating income, $m
  377
  527
  709
  925
  1,178
  1,467
  1,795
  2,162
  2,568
  3,012
  3,585
  4,104
  4,659
  5,250
  5,875
  6,534
  7,226
  7,952
  8,710
  9,500
  10,324
  11,182
  12,073
  13,000
  13,963
  14,964
  16,004
  17,086
  18,210
  19,380
EBITDA, $m
  679
  897
  1,161
  1,475
  1,841
  2,261
  2,737
  3,270
  3,858
  4,503
  5,202
  5,955
  6,761
  7,617
  8,525
  9,481
  10,486
  11,538
  12,638
  13,785
  14,981
  16,225
  17,519
  18,863
  20,261
  21,713
  23,223
  24,792
  26,423
  28,120
Interest expense (income), $m
  156
  151
  259
  392
  554
  745
  969
  1,226
  1,517
  1,842
  2,202
  2,595
  3,023
  3,483
  3,975
  4,499
  5,053
  5,637
  6,251
  6,894
  7,567
  8,268
  8,998
  9,758
  10,549
  11,371
  12,225
  13,112
  14,035
  14,993
  15,990
Earnings before tax, $m
  226
  268
  317
  372
  432
  498
  570
  646
  726
  810
  990
  1,081
  1,176
  1,275
  1,376
  1,481
  1,589
  1,700
  1,815
  1,934
  2,057
  2,184
  2,315
  2,451
  2,593
  2,739
  2,892
  3,051
  3,217
  3,389
Tax expense, $m
  61
  72
  86
  100
  117
  135
  154
  174
  196
  219
  267
  292
  318
  344
  372
  400
  429
  459
  490
  522
  555
  590
  625
  662
  700
  740
  781
  824
  869
  915
Net income, $m
  165
  196
  231
  271
  316
  364
  416
  471
  530
  592
  722
  789
  859
  931
  1,005
  1,081
  1,160
  1,241
  1,325
  1,412
  1,501
  1,594
  1,690
  1,789
  1,893
  2,000
  2,111
  2,227
  2,348
  2,474

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,931
  7,840
  10,150
  12,892
  16,091
  19,765
  23,925
  28,577
  33,721
  39,353
  45,464
  52,046
  59,088
  66,578
  74,507
  82,865
  91,645
  100,843
  110,457
  120,485
  130,934
  141,807
  153,115
  164,869
  177,084
  189,777
  202,969
  216,682
  230,940
  245,772
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,931
  7,840
  10,150
  12,892
  16,091
  19,765
  23,925
  28,577
  33,721
  39,353
  45,464
  52,046
  59,088
  66,578
  74,507
  82,865
  91,645
  100,843
  110,457
  120,485
  130,934
  141,807
  153,115
  164,869
  177,084
  189,777
  202,969
  216,682
  230,940
  245,772
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
  3.227
Average production assets, $m
  2,067
  2,732
  3,537
  4,493
  5,608
  6,888
  8,338
  9,960
  11,752
  13,715
  15,845
  18,139
  20,593
  23,204
  25,967
  28,880
  31,940
  35,145
  38,496
  41,991
  45,632
  49,422
  53,363
  57,459
  61,716
  66,140
  70,738
  75,517
  80,486
  85,656
Working capital, $m
  421
  557
  721
  915
  1,142
  1,403
  1,699
  2,029
  2,394
  2,794
  3,228
  3,695
  4,195
  4,727
  5,290
  5,883
  6,506
  7,159
  7,842
  8,554
  9,295
  10,067
  10,870
  11,705
  12,572
  13,473
  14,410
  15,383
  16,395
  17,448
Total debt, $m
  3,274
  4,963
  7,008
  9,434
  12,265
  15,517
  19,199
  23,316
  27,868
  32,852
  38,261
  44,086
  50,318
  56,947
  63,963
  71,360
  79,131
  87,271
  95,779
  104,655
  113,901
  123,524
  133,531
  143,934
  154,744
  165,978
  177,652
  189,788
  202,407
  215,534
Total liabilities, $m
  5,249
  6,938
  8,983
  11,409
  14,240
  17,492
  21,174
  25,291
  29,843
  34,827
  40,236
  46,061
  52,293
  58,922
  65,938
  73,335
  81,106
  89,246
  97,754
  106,630
  115,876
  125,499
  135,506
  145,909
  156,719
  167,953
  179,627
  191,763
  204,382
  217,509
Total equity, $m
  682
  902
  1,167
  1,483
  1,850
  2,273
  2,751
  3,286
  3,878
  4,526
  5,228
  5,985
  6,795
  7,656
  8,568
  9,529
  10,539
  11,597
  12,702
  13,856
  15,057
  16,308
  17,608
  18,960
  20,365
  21,824
  23,341
  24,918
  26,558
  28,264
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,931
  7,840
  10,150
  12,892
  16,090
  19,765
  23,925
  28,577
  33,721
  39,353
  45,464
  52,046
  59,088
  66,578
  74,506
  82,864
  91,645
  100,843
  110,456
  120,486
  130,933
  141,807
  153,114
  164,869
  177,084
  189,777
  202,968
  216,681
  230,940
  245,773
Debt-to-equity ratio
  4.800
  5.510
  6.000
  6.360
  6.630
  6.830
  6.980
  7.090
  7.190
  7.260
  7.320
  7.370
  7.410
  7.440
  7.470
  7.490
  7.510
  7.530
  7.540
  7.550
  7.560
  7.570
  7.580
  7.590
  7.600
  7.610
  7.610
  7.620
  7.620
  7.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115
  0.115

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  165
  196
  231
  271
  316
  364
  416
  471
  530
  592
  722
  789
  859
  931
  1,005
  1,081
  1,160
  1,241
  1,325
  1,412
  1,501
  1,594
  1,690
  1,789
  1,893
  2,000
  2,111
  2,227
  2,348
  2,474
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  302
  370
  452
  550
  663
  794
  942
  1,107
  1,290
  1,491
  1,617
  1,851
  2,101
  2,368
  2,650
  2,947
  3,259
  3,586
  3,928
  4,285
  4,656
  5,043
  5,445
  5,863
  6,298
  6,749
  7,218
  7,706
  8,213
  8,740
Funds from operations, $m
  467
  566
  684
  821
  979
  1,158
  1,358
  1,579
  1,820
  2,082
  2,339
  2,640
  2,960
  3,298
  3,654
  4,028
  4,419
  4,827
  5,253
  5,697
  6,158
  6,637
  7,135
  7,653
  8,190
  8,749
  9,329
  9,933
  10,561
  11,215
Change in working capital, $m
  110
  136
  164
  195
  227
  261
  295
  330
  365
  400
  434
  467
  500
  532
  563
  593
  623
  653
  682
  712
  742
  772
  803
  834
  867
  901
  937
  974
  1,012
  1,053
Cash from operations, $m
  357
  430
  520
  626
  752
  897
  1,062
  1,248
  1,455
  1,682
  1,905
  2,173
  2,460
  2,766
  3,091
  3,435
  3,796
  4,174
  4,571
  4,985
  5,416
  5,865
  6,332
  6,818
  7,323
  7,848
  8,393
  8,960
  9,549
  10,162
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -155
  -211
  -279
  -361
  -458
  -572
  -703
  -851
  -1,016
  -1,199
  -1,400
  -1,617
  -1,851
  -2,101
  -2,368
  -2,650
  -2,947
  -3,259
  -3,586
  -3,928
  -4,285
  -4,656
  -5,043
  -5,445
  -5,863
  -6,298
  -6,749
  -7,218
  -7,706
  -8,213
New CAPEX, $m
  -544
  -665
  -805
  -956
  -1,115
  -1,280
  -1,450
  -1,621
  -1,793
  -1,963
  -2,130
  -2,294
  -2,454
  -2,610
  -2,763
  -2,913
  -3,060
  -3,206
  -3,350
  -3,495
  -3,641
  -3,790
  -3,941
  -4,096
  -4,257
  -4,424
  -4,598
  -4,779
  -4,969
  -5,169
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -699
  -876
  -1,084
  -1,317
  -1,573
  -1,852
  -2,153
  -2,472
  -2,809
  -3,162
  -3,530
  -3,911
  -4,305
  -4,711
  -5,131
  -5,563
  -6,007
  -6,465
  -6,936
  -7,423
  -7,926
  -8,446
  -8,984
  -9,541
  -10,120
  -10,722
  -11,347
  -11,997
  -12,675
  -13,382
Free cash flow, $m
  -342
  -446
  -564
  -690
  -822
  -956
  -1,090
  -1,224
  -1,354
  -1,480
  -1,624
  -1,738
  -1,845
  -1,945
  -2,040
  -2,128
  -2,211
  -2,290
  -2,366
  -2,439
  -2,510
  -2,581
  -2,652
  -2,724
  -2,797
  -2,874
  -2,954
  -3,038
  -3,126
  -3,220
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1,367
  1,689
  2,044
  2,427
  2,831
  3,251
  3,682
  4,117
  4,552
  4,984
  5,409
  5,825
  6,232
  6,629
  7,017
  7,397
  7,771
  8,140
  8,508
  8,876
  9,247
  9,623
  10,007
  10,402
  10,810
  11,234
  11,675
  12,136
  12,619
  13,126
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  24
  34
  44
  52
  59
  63
  64
  62
  56
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,379
  1,713
  2,078
  2,471
  2,883
  3,310
  3,745
  4,181
  4,614
  5,040
  5,409
  5,825
  6,232
  6,629
  7,017
  7,397
  7,771
  8,140
  8,508
  8,876
  9,247
  9,623
  10,007
  10,402
  10,810
  11,234
  11,675
  12,136
  12,619
  13,126
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,038
  1,267
  1,514
  1,780
  2,062
  2,354
  2,654
  2,957
  3,260
  3,560
  3,785
  4,087
  4,387
  4,684
  4,977
  5,269
  5,559
  5,850
  6,142
  6,437
  6,736
  7,042
  7,356
  7,679
  8,013
  8,360
  8,721
  9,098
  9,493
  9,906
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -177
  -219
  -266
  -315
  -368
  -423
  -478
  -535
  -592
  -648
  -703
  -757
  -810
  -861
  -912
  -961
  -1,010
  -1,058
  -1,106
  -1,153
  -1,202
  -1,250
  -1,300
  -1,352
  -1,405
  -1,460
  -1,517
  -1,577
  -1,640
  -1,706
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  860
  1,047
  1,248
  1,465
  1,694
  1,932
  2,176
  2,422
  2,668
  2,913
  3,082
  3,330
  3,577
  3,822
  4,066
  4,308
  4,550
  4,792
  5,036
  5,283
  5,535
  5,792
  6,055
  6,327
  6,608
  6,900
  7,204
  7,521
  7,853
  8,200
Discount rate, %
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.60
  17.43
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.36
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
  29.82
  31.31
  32.87
  34.52
  36.24
  38.06
  39.96
  41.96
  44.05
  46.26
  48.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  770
  829
  865
  878
  867
  833
  779
  709
  628
  542
  446
  367
  294
  230
  174
  129
  92
  64
  44
  29
  18
  11
  7
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  99.0
  97.7
  96.2
  94.8
  93.5
  92.3
  91.3
  90.4
  89.7
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2
  89.2

Supervalu Inc. is a wholesale distributor to independent retail customers across the United States. The Company's segments include Wholesale and Retail. The Company offers a range of advertised brand name and private-label products, including grocery (both perishable and nonperishable), general merchandise and home, health and beauty care, and pharmacy, which are sold through Company-operated and licensed Retail stores to shoppers and through its Wholesale segment to independent retail customers. The Company’s Wholesale segment provides wholesale distribution of products to independent retail customers. Wholesale is organized and operated through two geographic regions: East and West. As of September 9, 2017, the Company conducted its Retail operations through a total of 217 stores primarily organized under five regionally-based retail banners of Cub Foods, Shoppers Food & Pharmacy, Shop 'n Save, Farm Fresh and Hornbacher’s, as well as two Rainbow and two County Market stores.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Supervalu (SVU)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 1.9
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 3.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 15.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 10.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 385.4%
Total Debt to Equity 392.3%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 31.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Return On Total Capital 33.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.1%
Return On Equity -2000%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -686.8%
Asset Turnover 3.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.4%
EBITDA Margin 3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Operating Margin 1.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Net Profit Margin 5.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Effective Tax Rate -285.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -123.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

SVU stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SVU stock intrinsic value calculation we used $14157 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Supervalu. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Supervalu. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SVU stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 35.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.8%, whose default value for SVU is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Supervalu, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Supervalu.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SVU stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SVU stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.9% for Supervalu.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Supervalu. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SVU stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SVU are equal to 10.8%.

Life of production assets of 9.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Supervalu operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SVU is equal to 2.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $505 million for Supervalu - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 38.624 million for Supervalu is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Supervalu at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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