Intrinsic value of Skyworks Solutions - SWKS

Previous Close

$86.81

  Intrinsic Value

$78.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-10%

Previous close

$86.81

 
Intrinsic value

$78.40

 
Up/down potential

-10%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of SWKS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 15.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  3,724
  3,810
  3,908
  4,018
  4,140
  4,273
  4,419
  4,576
  4,746
  4,928
  5,123
  5,331
  5,553
  5,788
  6,037
  6,302
  6,582
  6,878
  7,191
  7,522
  7,870
  8,238
  8,626
  9,034
  9,464
  9,917
  10,393
  10,895
  11,423
  11,978
Variable operating expenses, $m
  2,356
  2,408
  2,467
  2,534
  2,608
  2,689
  2,777
  2,873
  2,976
  3,086
  3,110
  3,236
  3,370
  3,513
  3,665
  3,825
  3,995
  4,175
  4,365
  4,565
  4,777
  5,000
  5,235
  5,483
  5,744
  6,019
  6,308
  6,613
  6,933
  7,270
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,356
  2,408
  2,467
  2,534
  2,608
  2,689
  2,777
  2,873
  2,976
  3,086
  3,110
  3,236
  3,370
  3,513
  3,665
  3,825
  3,995
  4,175
  4,365
  4,565
  4,777
  5,000
  5,235
  5,483
  5,744
  6,019
  6,308
  6,613
  6,933
  7,270
Operating income, $m
  1,369
  1,402
  1,441
  1,484
  1,532
  1,585
  1,642
  1,704
  1,770
  1,842
  2,014
  2,095
  2,182
  2,275
  2,373
  2,477
  2,587
  2,703
  2,826
  2,956
  3,093
  3,238
  3,390
  3,551
  3,720
  3,898
  4,085
  4,282
  4,490
  4,708
EBITDA, $m
  1,656
  1,694
  1,738
  1,786
  1,841
  1,900
  1,965
  2,035
  2,110
  2,191
  2,278
  2,370
  2,469
  2,573
  2,684
  2,802
  2,926
  3,058
  3,197
  3,344
  3,499
  3,663
  3,835
  4,017
  4,208
  4,409
  4,621
  4,844
  5,079
  5,325
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  44
  47
  51
  54
  58
Earnings before tax, $m
  1,369
  1,402
  1,440
  1,482
  1,529
  1,581
  1,637
  1,698
  1,763
  1,834
  2,004
  2,084
  2,170
  2,261
  2,357
  2,459
  2,567
  2,681
  2,802
  2,930
  3,064
  3,206
  3,356
  3,513
  3,679
  3,854
  4,038
  4,231
  4,435
  4,649
Tax expense, $m
  370
  379
  389
  400
  413
  427
  442
  458
  476
  495
  541
  563
  586
  610
  636
  664
  693
  724
  757
  791
  827
  866
  906
  949
  993
  1,041
  1,090
  1,142
  1,197
  1,255
Net income, $m
  999
  1,023
  1,051
  1,082
  1,116
  1,154
  1,195
  1,239
  1,287
  1,339
  1,463
  1,522
  1,584
  1,650
  1,721
  1,795
  1,874
  1,957
  2,046
  2,139
  2,237
  2,340
  2,450
  2,565
  2,686
  2,813
  2,948
  3,089
  3,238
  3,394

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,411
  3,489
  3,579
  3,679
  3,791
  3,913
  4,047
  4,191
  4,346
  4,513
  4,692
  4,882
  5,085
  5,300
  5,529
  5,771
  6,028
  6,299
  6,585
  6,888
  7,207
  7,544
  7,899
  8,273
  8,667
  9,081
  9,518
  9,977
  10,460
  10,969
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,411
  3,489
  3,579
  3,679
  3,791
  3,913
  4,047
  4,191
  4,346
  4,513
  4,692
  4,882
  5,085
  5,300
  5,529
  5,771
  6,028
  6,299
  6,585
  6,888
  7,207
  7,544
  7,899
  8,273
  8,667
  9,081
  9,518
  9,977
  10,460
  10,969
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
  1.092
Average production assets, $m
  1,345
  1,375
  1,411
  1,450
  1,494
  1,543
  1,595
  1,652
  1,713
  1,779
  1,849
  1,925
  2,004
  2,089
  2,180
  2,275
  2,376
  2,483
  2,596
  2,715
  2,841
  2,974
  3,114
  3,261
  3,417
  3,580
  3,752
  3,933
  4,124
  4,324
Working capital, $m
  641
  655
  672
  691
  712
  735
  760
  787
  816
  848
  881
  917
  955
  996
  1,038
  1,084
  1,132
  1,183
  1,237
  1,294
  1,354
  1,417
  1,484
  1,554
  1,628
  1,706
  1,788
  1,874
  1,965
  2,060
Total debt, $m
  11
  22
  36
  51
  68
  87
  107
  129
  153
  178
  205
  234
  265
  298
  332
  369
  408
  450
  493
  539
  588
  639
  693
  750
  809
  872
  939
  1,009
  1,082
  1,159
Total liabilities, $m
  518
  530
  544
  559
  576
  595
  615
  637
  661
  686
  713
  742
  773
  806
  840
  877
  916
  957
  1,001
  1,047
  1,096
  1,147
  1,201
  1,257
  1,317
  1,380
  1,447
  1,517
  1,590
  1,667
Total equity, $m
  2,892
  2,959
  3,035
  3,120
  3,215
  3,319
  3,432
  3,554
  3,686
  3,827
  3,978
  4,140
  4,312
  4,495
  4,688
  4,894
  5,111
  5,341
  5,584
  5,841
  6,112
  6,397
  6,698
  7,015
  7,349
  7,701
  8,071
  8,461
  8,870
  9,301
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,410
  3,489
  3,579
  3,679
  3,791
  3,914
  4,047
  4,191
  4,347
  4,513
  4,691
  4,882
  5,085
  5,301
  5,528
  5,771
  6,027
  6,298
  6,585
  6,888
  7,208
  7,544
  7,899
  8,272
  8,666
  9,081
  9,518
  9,978
  10,460
  10,968
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.010
  0.010
  0.020
  0.020
  0.030
  0.030
  0.040
  0.040
  0.050
  0.050
  0.060
  0.060
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.080
  0.080
  0.090
  0.090
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.110
  0.110
  0.110
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
  0.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  999
  1,023
  1,051
  1,082
  1,116
  1,154
  1,195
  1,239
  1,287
  1,339
  1,463
  1,522
  1,584
  1,650
  1,721
  1,795
  1,874
  1,957
  2,046
  2,139
  2,237
  2,340
  2,450
  2,565
  2,686
  2,813
  2,948
  3,089
  3,238
  3,394
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  287
  292
  297
  302
  309
  315
  323
  331
  340
  349
  264
  275
  286
  298
  311
  325
  339
  355
  371
  388
  406
  425
  445
  466
  488
  511
  536
  562
  589
  618
Funds from operations, $m
  1,286
  1,315
  1,348
  1,384
  1,425
  1,469
  1,518
  1,571
  1,627
  1,688
  1,727
  1,796
  1,870
  1,949
  2,032
  2,120
  2,213
  2,312
  2,416
  2,527
  2,643
  2,765
  2,894
  3,031
  3,174
  3,325
  3,484
  3,651
  3,827
  4,012
Change in working capital, $m
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  95
Cash from operations, $m
  1,274
  1,300
  1,331
  1,365
  1,404
  1,446
  1,493
  1,543
  1,598
  1,657
  1,694
  1,761
  1,832
  1,908
  1,989
  2,075
  2,165
  2,261
  2,363
  2,470
  2,583
  2,702
  2,828
  2,960
  3,100
  3,247
  3,402
  3,565
  3,736
  3,916
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -188
  -192
  -196
  -202
  -207
  -213
  -220
  -228
  -236
  -245
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -286
  -298
  -311
  -325
  -339
  -355
  -371
  -388
  -406
  -425
  -445
  -466
  -488
  -511
  -536
  -562
  -589
New CAPEX, $m
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -85
  -90
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -200
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -215
  -223
  -231
  -242
  -251
  -261
  -273
  -285
  -297
  -311
  -324
  -339
  -355
  -371
  -388
  -407
  -426
  -446
  -468
  -490
  -514
  -539
  -565
  -592
  -621
  -651
  -683
  -717
  -752
  -789
Free cash flow, $m
  1,058
  1,077
  1,099
  1,124
  1,153
  1,185
  1,220
  1,259
  1,301
  1,346
  1,369
  1,421
  1,477
  1,537
  1,600
  1,668
  1,739
  1,815
  1,895
  1,980
  2,069
  2,163
  2,263
  2,368
  2,479
  2,595
  2,718
  2,848
  2,984
  3,127
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,069
  1,089
  1,113
  1,139
  1,170
  1,203
  1,240
  1,281
  1,324
  1,371
  1,396
  1,450
  1,508
  1,570
  1,635
  1,705
  1,778
  1,856
  1,938
  2,026
  2,118
  2,215
  2,317
  2,425
  2,539
  2,658
  2,785
  2,917
  3,057
  3,204
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -67
  -76
  -85
  -95
  -104
  -113
  -122
  -132
  -141
  -151
  -161
  -172
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -257
  -271
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -334
  -352
  -370
  -389
  -410
  -431
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  1,229
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  2,242
  1,023
  1,037
  1,054
  1,075
  1,100
  1,127
  1,158
  1,192
  1,230
  1,245
  1,289
  1,336
  1,387
  1,441
  1,499
  1,561
  1,626
  1,695
  1,769
  1,847
  1,929
  2,016
  2,108
  2,205
  2,307
  2,414
  2,528
  2,647
  2,773
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  2,150
  936
  902
  868
  833
  798
  762
  724
  685
  645
  591
  550
  508
  466
  423
  381
  340
  299
  261
  225
  191
  160
  132
  107
  86
  67
  52
  39
  29
  21
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Skyworks Solutions Inc. designs, develops, manufactures and markets semiconductor products, including intellectual property. The Company's analog semiconductors are connecting people, places, and things, spanning a number of new and unimagined applications within the automotive, broadband, cellular infrastructure, connected home, industrial, medical, military, smartphone, tablet and wearable markets. Its geographical segments include the United States, Other Americas, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Other Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa. It operates throughout the world with engineering, manufacturing, sales and service facilities throughout Asia, Europe and North America. It is engaged with key original equipment manufacturers (OEM), smartphone providers and baseband reference design partners. Its product portfolio consists of various solutions, including amplifiers, attenuators, detectors, diodes, filters, front-end modules, hybrid, mixers, switches, and modulators.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.7
Price to Sales 4.4
Price to Book 3.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 13.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 61.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 8.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 24%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.7%
Return On Total Capital 26.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Return On Equity 26.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.1%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.6%
EBITDA Margin 41.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41%
Operating Margin 34.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 33.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 34.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.1%
Net Profit Margin 27.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.5%
Effective Tax Rate 19.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.6%
Payout Ratio 21.3%

SWKS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SWKS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3651.4 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Skyworks Solutions. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Skyworks Solutions. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SWKS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SWKS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Skyworks Solutions, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Skyworks Solutions.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SWKS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 63.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SWKS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Skyworks Solutions.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Skyworks Solutions. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SWKS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SWKS are equal to 36.1%.

Life of production assets of 7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Skyworks Solutions operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SWKS is equal to 17.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4065.7 million for Skyworks Solutions - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 182.075 million for Skyworks Solutions is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Skyworks Solutions at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $15.8 billion.

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