Intrinsic value of Southwest Gas Holdings - SWX

Previous Close

$75.75

  Intrinsic Value

$89.62

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+18%

Previous close

$75.75

 
Intrinsic value

$89.62

 
Up/down potential

+18%

 
Rating

hold

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of SWX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.16
  9.80
  9.32
  8.89
  8.50
  8.15
  7.83
  7.55
  7.30
  7.07
  6.86
  6.67
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
Revenue, $m
  1,321
  2,701
  2,953
  3,215
  3,489
  3,773
  4,068
  4,376
  4,695
  5,027
  5,371
  5,730
  6,103
  6,491
  6,894
  7,315
  7,753
  8,209
  8,685
  9,182
  9,701
  10,243
  10,809
  11,400
  12,019
  12,666
  13,342
  14,051
  14,793
  15,570
  16,383
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,384
  2,605
  2,835
  3,075
  3,324
  3,583
  3,853
  4,133
  4,424
  4,726
  5,027
  5,354
  5,694
  6,048
  6,417
  6,802
  7,202
  7,620
  8,056
  8,511
  8,986
  9,482
  10,001
  10,544
  11,112
  11,705
  12,327
  12,978
  13,659
  14,373
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,165
  2,384
  2,605
  2,835
  3,075
  3,324
  3,583
  3,853
  4,133
  4,424
  4,726
  5,027
  5,354
  5,694
  6,048
  6,417
  6,802
  7,202
  7,620
  8,056
  8,511
  8,986
  9,482
  10,001
  10,544
  11,112
  11,705
  12,327
  12,978
  13,659
  14,373
Operating income, $m
  296
  317
  348
  380
  414
  449
  485
  523
  562
  603
  645
  703
  749
  796
  846
  897
  951
  1,007
  1,066
  1,127
  1,190
  1,257
  1,326
  1,399
  1,475
  1,554
  1,637
  1,724
  1,815
  1,910
  2,010
EBITDA, $m
  585
  378
  413
  450
  488
  528
  569
  612
  657
  703
  751
  802
  854
  908
  964
  1,023
  1,085
  1,148
  1,215
  1,285
  1,357
  1,433
  1,512
  1,595
  1,681
  1,772
  1,866
  1,966
  2,069
  2,178
  2,292
Interest expense (income), $m
  67
  66
  82
  99
  116
  134
  153
  173
  193
  214
  236
  259
  283
  308
  333
  360
  388
  417
  447
  479
  512
  546
  582
  620
  659
  700
  743
  788
  835
  884
  936
Earnings before tax, $m
  232
  252
  266
  282
  298
  315
  332
  350
  369
  388
  409
  444
  466
  489
  512
  537
  563
  590
  618
  648
  678
  710
  744
  779
  815
  854
  894
  936
  980
  1,026
  1,074
Tax expense, $m
  79
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
  175
  183
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  277
  290
Net income, $m
  152
  184
  194
  206
  218
  230
  242
  256
  269
  284
  298
  324
  340
  357
  374
  392
  411
  431
  451
  473
  495
  518
  543
  568
  595
  623
  652
  683
  715
  749
  784

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  32
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,581
  6,097
  6,666
  7,258
  7,875
  8,517
  9,184
  9,877
  10,598
  11,347
  12,125
  12,934
  13,776
  14,651
  15,563
  16,512
  17,500
  18,531
  19,606
  20,728
  21,898
  23,121
  24,399
  25,734
  27,130
  28,590
  30,118
  31,718
  33,392
  35,146
  36,982
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,549
  6,097
  6,666
  7,258
  7,875
  8,517
  9,184
  9,877
  10,598
  11,347
  12,125
  12,934
  13,776
  14,651
  15,563
  16,512
  17,500
  18,531
  19,606
  20,728
  21,898
  23,121
  24,399
  25,734
  27,130
  28,590
  30,118
  31,718
  33,392
  35,146
  36,982
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.238
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
  0.443
Average production assets, $m
  213
  232
  254
  277
  300
  324
  350
  376
  404
  432
  462
  493
  525
  558
  593
  629
  667
  706
  747
  790
  834
  881
  930
  980
  1,034
  1,089
  1,147
  1,208
  1,272
  1,339
  1,409
Working capital, $m
  -95
  -84
  -92
  -100
  -108
  -117
  -126
  -136
  -146
  -156
  -167
  -178
  -189
  -201
  -214
  -227
  -240
  -254
  -269
  -285
  -301
  -318
  -335
  -353
  -373
  -393
  -414
  -436
  -459
  -483
  -508
Total debt, $m
  1,600
  1,950
  2,348
  2,763
  3,194
  3,644
  4,111
  4,596
  5,100
  5,625
  6,170
  6,736
  7,325
  7,938
  8,576
  9,240
  9,932
  10,654
  11,406
  12,191
  13,011
  13,867
  14,761
  15,696
  16,673
  17,695
  18,765
  19,884
  21,056
  22,284
  23,570
Total liabilities, $m
  3,918
  4,268
  4,666
  5,081
  5,512
  5,962
  6,429
  6,914
  7,418
  7,943
  8,488
  9,054
  9,643
  10,256
  10,894
  11,558
  12,250
  12,972
  13,724
  14,509
  15,329
  16,185
  17,079
  18,014
  18,991
  20,013
  21,083
  22,202
  23,374
  24,602
  25,888
Total equity, $m
  1,663
  1,829
  2,000
  2,177
  2,362
  2,555
  2,755
  2,963
  3,179
  3,404
  3,638
  3,880
  4,133
  4,395
  4,669
  4,954
  5,250
  5,559
  5,882
  6,218
  6,570
  6,936
  7,320
  7,720
  8,139
  8,577
  9,036
  9,515
  10,018
  10,544
  11,095
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,581
  6,097
  6,666
  7,258
  7,874
  8,517
  9,184
  9,877
  10,597
  11,347
  12,126
  12,934
  13,776
  14,651
  15,563
  16,512
  17,500
  18,531
  19,606
  20,727
  21,899
  23,121
  24,399
  25,734
  27,130
  28,590
  30,119
  31,717
  33,392
  35,146
  36,983
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.962
  1.070
  1.170
  1.270
  1.350
  1.430
  1.490
  1.550
  1.600
  1.650
  1.700
  1.740
  1.770
  1.810
  1.840
  1.870
  1.890
  1.920
  1.940
  1.960
  1.980
  2.000
  2.020
  2.030
  2.050
  2.060
  2.080
  2.090
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.294
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  152
  184
  194
  206
  218
  230
  242
  256
  269
  284
  298
  324
  340
  357
  374
  392
  411
  431
  451
  473
  495
  518
  543
  568
  595
  623
  652
  683
  715
  749
  784
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  289
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  99
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  242
  254
  268
  282
Funds from operations, $m
  689
  244
  259
  275
  292
  309
  326
  345
  364
  384
  405
  423
  445
  468
  493
  518
  544
  572
  601
  631
  662
  695
  729
  765
  802
  841
  882
  925
  970
  1,017
  1,066
Change in working capital, $m
  91
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
Cash from operations, $m
  598
  252
  267
  283
  300
  317
  336
  354
  374
  394
  415
  434
  457
  480
  505
  531
  558
  586
  615
  646
  678
  711
  746
  783
  821
  861
  903
  947
  993
  1,041
  1,091
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -43
  -46
  -51
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -86
  -92
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -186
  -196
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -242
  -254
  -268
New CAPEX, $m
  -530
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -526
  -63
  -68
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -110
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -138
  -147
  -155
  -164
  -172
  -182
  -192
  -203
  -214
  -225
  -237
  -249
  -263
  -276
  -290
  -306
  -321
  -338
Free cash flow, $m
  72
  189
  199
  210
  221
  233
  245
  258
  271
  285
  299
  310
  326
  342
  359
  376
  395
  413
  433
  454
  475
  498
  522
  546
  572
  599
  627
  656
  687
  720
  753
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  382
  398
  415
  432
  449
  467
  485
  504
  524
  545
  566
  589
  613
  638
  664
  692
  721
  752
  785
  820
  856
  894
  935
  977
  1,022
  1,070
  1,120
  1,172
  1,227
  1,286
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  382
  398
  415
  432
  449
  467
  485
  504
  524
  545
  566
  589
  613
  638
  664
  692
  721
  752
  785
  820
  856
  894
  935
  977
  1,022
  1,070
  1,120
  1,172
  1,227
  1,286
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  75
  571
  597
  625
  653
  682
  712
  743
  776
  809
  844
  877
  915
  955
  997
  1,041
  1,087
  1,135
  1,186
  1,239
  1,295
  1,354
  1,416
  1,481
  1,549
  1,621
  1,697
  1,776
  1,859
  1,947
  2,039
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -69
  -166
  -170
  -178
  -185
  -193
  -200
  -208
  -216
  -225
  -234
  -243
  -252
  -263
  -273
  -285
  -297
  -309
  -322
  -336
  -351
  -367
  -383
  -401
  -419
  -438
  -458
  -480
  -502
  -526
  -551
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  405
  426
  447
  468
  490
  512
  535
  560
  585
  611
  634
  663
  692
  723
  756
  790
  826
  863
  903
  944
  987
  1,033
  1,080
  1,130
  1,183
  1,238
  1,296
  1,357
  1,421
  1,488
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  379
  371
  359
  344
  327
  309
  288
  267
  244
  221
  196
  174
  152
  131
  111
  93
  76
  61
  49
  38
  29
  22
  16
  11
  8
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc., formerly Southwest Gas Corporation, is engaged in the business of purchasing, distributing and transporting natural gas. The Company operates through two segments: natural gas operations and construction services, which includes the operations of the Company's subsidiary, Centuri Construction Group, Inc. (Centuri). The Company operates two pipeline transmission systems, such as a system, which includes a liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage facility owned by Paiute extending from the Idaho-Nevada border to the Reno, Sparks, and Carson City areas and communities in the Lake Tahoe area in both California and Nevada and other communities in northern and western Nevada, and a system extending from the Colorado River at the southern tip of Nevada to the Las Vegas distribution area.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Southwest Gas Holdings (SWX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23.7
Price to Sales 1.5
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6
Price to Free Cash Flow 52.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 8.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 93.2%
Total Debt to Equity 96.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.6%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.6%
Return On Equity 9.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 23.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
Operating Margin 12%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 9.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Net Profit Margin 6.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.1%
Effective Tax Rate 34.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 35.5%
Payout Ratio 54.6%

SWX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SWX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2460 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Southwest Gas Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Southwest Gas Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SWX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for SWX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Southwest Gas Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Southwest Gas Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SWX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SWX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Southwest Gas Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Southwest Gas Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SWX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SWX are equal to 8.6%.

Life of production assets of 1.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Southwest Gas Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SWX is equal to -3.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1663 million for Southwest Gas Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.838 million for Southwest Gas Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Southwest Gas Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-08-17 11:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Southwest Gas beats 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-07-17 09:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Nov-01-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ What's fueling an ethanol plant's expensive fight with Southwest Gas   [Sep-05-17 06:46PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Southwest Gas beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-07-17 11:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Aug-02-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ $10M fight over gas pipeline to ethanol plant   [May-18-17 02:15PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [May-10-17 05:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Southwest Gas misses 1Q profit forecasts   [May-08-17 05:42PM  Associated Press]
▶ Southwest Gas beats 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-27-17 06:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. Announces Conference Call   [Feb-22-17 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Southwest Gas Completes Holding Company Reorganization   [Jan-03-17 06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Southwest Gas Declares First Quarter 2017 Dividend   [Nov-15-16 05:00PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of SWX
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