Intrinsic value of Southcross Energy Partners - SXE

Previous Close

$0.54

  Intrinsic Value

$2.57

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+376%

Previous close

$0.54

 
Intrinsic value

$2.57

 
Up/down potential

+376%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of SXE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  679
  695
  713
  733
  755
  779
  806
  835
  866
  899
  934
  972
  1,013
  1,056
  1,101
  1,149
  1,200
  1,254
  1,312
  1,372
  1,435
  1,502
  1,573
  1,648
  1,726
  1,809
  1,896
  1,987
  2,083
  2,184
Variable operating expenses, $m
  541
  554
  568
  584
  602
  621
  642
  665
  690
  716
  745
  775
  807
  841
  878
  916
  957
  1,000
  1,045
  1,093
  1,144
  1,197
  1,254
  1,313
  1,376
  1,441
  1,511
  1,584
  1,660
  1,741
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  159
  163
  167
  170
  174
  178
  182
  186
  190
  194
  198
  203
  207
  212
  216
  221
  226
  231
  236
  241
  246
  252
  257
  263
  269
  275
  281
  287
  293
  300
Total operating expenses, $m
  700
  717
  735
  754
  776
  799
  824
  851
  880
  910
  943
  978
  1,014
  1,053
  1,094
  1,137
  1,183
  1,231
  1,281
  1,334
  1,390
  1,449
  1,511
  1,576
  1,645
  1,716
  1,792
  1,871
  1,953
  2,041
Operating income, $m
  -22
  -22
  -22
  -21
  -21
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -14
  -11
  -9
  -5
  -1
  3
  7
  12
  18
  24
  30
  37
  45
  53
  62
  71
  82
  92
  104
  116
  130
  144
EBITDA, $m
  52
  53
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  74
  80
  86
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  137
  148
  159
  172
  186
  200
  216
  232
  250
  268
  288
  309
  331
  355
  380
Interest expense (income), $m
  32
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  48
  50
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
Earnings before tax, $m
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -62
  -63
  -63
  -63
  -62
  -62
  -61
  -60
  -59
  -57
  -56
  -53
  -51
  -48
  -46
  -42
  -39
  -35
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -14
  -8
  -1
  6
  14
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
Net income, $m
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -62
  -63
  -63
  -63
  -62
  -62
  -61
  -60
  -59
  -57
  -56
  -53
  -51
  -48
  -46
  -42
  -39
  -35
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -14
  -8
  -1
  4
  10

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,126
  1,152
  1,182
  1,215
  1,252
  1,293
  1,337
  1,384
  1,436
  1,491
  1,550
  1,612
  1,679
  1,751
  1,826
  1,906
  1,991
  2,080
  2,175
  2,275
  2,380
  2,492
  2,609
  2,732
  2,862
  2,999
  3,144
  3,295
  3,455
  3,623
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,126
  1,152
  1,182
  1,215
  1,252
  1,293
  1,337
  1,384
  1,436
  1,491
  1,550
  1,612
  1,679
  1,751
  1,826
  1,906
  1,991
  2,080
  2,175
  2,275
  2,380
  2,492
  2,609
  2,732
  2,862
  2,999
  3,144
  3,295
  3,455
  3,623
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.602
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
  0.603
Average production assets, $m
  962
  984
  1,009
  1,038
  1,069
  1,104
  1,141
  1,182
  1,226
  1,273
  1,323
  1,377
  1,434
  1,495
  1,559
  1,628
  1,700
  1,776
  1,857
  1,942
  2,033
  2,127
  2,228
  2,333
  2,444
  2,561
  2,684
  2,814
  2,950
  3,093
Working capital, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Total debt, $m
  531
  545
  562
  580
  600
  622
  646
  672
  701
  731
  763
  798
  834
  873
  915
  958
  1,005
  1,054
  1,106
  1,161
  1,218
  1,279
  1,344
  1,411
  1,483
  1,558
  1,637
  1,720
  1,807
  1,899
Total liabilities, $m
  617
  632
  648
  666
  686
  708
  732
  759
  787
  817
  849
  884
  920
  959
  1,001
  1,045
  1,091
  1,140
  1,192
  1,247
  1,304
  1,365
  1,430
  1,497
  1,569
  1,644
  1,723
  1,806
  1,893
  1,985
Total equity, $m
  509
  521
  534
  549
  566
  584
  604
  626
  649
  674
  700
  729
  759
  791
  825
  862
  900
  940
  983
  1,028
  1,076
  1,126
  1,179
  1,235
  1,294
  1,356
  1,421
  1,489
  1,562
  1,637
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,126
  1,153
  1,182
  1,215
  1,252
  1,292
  1,336
  1,385
  1,436
  1,491
  1,549
  1,613
  1,679
  1,750
  1,826
  1,907
  1,991
  2,080
  2,175
  2,275
  2,380
  2,491
  2,609
  2,732
  2,863
  3,000
  3,144
  3,295
  3,455
  3,622
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.080
  1.080
  1.090
  1.090
  1.100
  1.100
  1.110
  1.110
  1.120
  1.120
  1.120
  1.130
  1.130
  1.140
  1.140
  1.140
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.150
  1.160
  1.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452
  0.452

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -59
  -60
  -61
  -62
  -62
  -63
  -63
  -63
  -62
  -62
  -61
  -60
  -59
  -57
  -56
  -53
  -51
  -48
  -46
  -42
  -39
  -35
  -30
  -25
  -20
  -14
  -8
  -1
  4
  10
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  84
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  195
  205
  215
  225
  236
Funds from operations, $m
  15
  15
  16
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  63
  71
  79
  87
  96
  106
  117
  128
  140
  153
  167
  181
  197
  213
  229
  246
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  15
  15
  16
  17
  19
  22
  24
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  96
  106
  117
  128
  140
  153
  167
  181
  197
  213
  230
  246
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -72
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -94
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -195
  -205
  -215
  -225
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -130
  -136
  -143
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -275
  -289
  -304
  -318
  -335
  -351
  -368
Free cash flow, $m
  -76
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -105
  -108
  -110
  -112
  -113
  -115
  -117
  -118
  -119
  -120
  -121
  -122
  -122
  -122
  -123
  -123
  -122
  -122
  -121
  -121
  -122
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  68
  72
  74
  77
  79
  81
  83
  84
  86
  87
  88
  89
  89
  90
  90
  90
  89
  89
  88
  87
  86
  85
  83
  81
  79
  76
  73
  70
  68
  66
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  81
  86
  90
  95
  99
  103
  107
  110
  114
  117
  120
  123
  126
  129
  131
  134
  135
  138
  140
  142
  144
  146
  147
  149
  150
  151
  152
  153
  155
  158
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -68
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -83
  -84
  -86
  -87
  -88
  -89
  -89
  -90
  -90
  -90
  -89
  -89
  -88
  -87
  -86
  -85
  -83
  -81
  -79
  -76
  -73
  -70
  -72
  -76
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -71
  -72
  -73
  -74
  -75
  -75
  -75
  -75
  -75
  -74
  -74
  -73
  -71
  -70
  -68
  -66
  -64
  -61
  -58
  -55
  -51
  -47
  -43
  -38
  -38
  -40
Discount rate, %
  9.10
  9.56
  10.03
  10.53
  11.06
  11.61
  12.19
  12.80
  13.44
  14.12
  14.82
  15.56
  16.34
  17.16
  18.02
  18.92
  19.86
  20.86
  21.90
  23.00
  24.15
  25.35
  26.62
  27.95
  29.35
  30.82
  32.36
  33.97
  35.67
  37.46
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -58
  -55
  -51
  -47
  -42
  -37
  -33
  -28
  -24
  -20
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  83.6
  69.6
  57.8
  47.9
  39.8
  33.0
  27.5
  22.9
  19.1
  16.1
  13.6
  11.5
  9.8
  8.4
  7.2
  6.2
  5.4
  4.8
  4.2
  3.7
  3.3
  3.0
  2.7
  2.5
  2.3
  2.1
  1.9
  1.8
  1.7
  1.6

Southcross Energy Partners, L.P. provides natural gas gathering, processing, treating, compression and transportation services and natural gas liquid (NGL) fractionation and transportation services. The Company also sources, purchases, transports and sells natural gas and NGLs. Its assets are located in South Texas, Mississippi and Alabama As of December 31, 2016, its assets consisted of gathering systems, intrastate pipelines, two natural gas processing plants, one fractionation facility, 20 compressor stations and a treating system. Its gathering systems and intrastate pipelines include South Texas and Mississippi/Alabama. The assets in its South Texas region are located between Montgomery County, which is north of Houston, and Webb and Dimmit Counties near the Texas-Mexico border. The assets in its Mississippi region are located principally in the southern half of the state and consist of intrastate pipeline system in Mississippi.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Southcross Energy Partners (SXE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.4
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 1.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -76.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -22.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 96.3%
Total Debt to Equity 97.2%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3%
Return On Total Capital -8.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Return On Equity -16%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.6%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 27.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.9%
EBITDA Margin 8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.9%
Operating Margin -6.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -17.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Net Profit Margin -17.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Payout Ratio 0%

SXE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SXE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $665.949 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Southcross Energy Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Southcross Energy Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SXE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.1%, whose default value for SXE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Southcross Energy Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Southcross Energy Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SXE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $156 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SXE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.2% for Southcross Energy Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Southcross Energy Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SXE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SXE are equal to 141.6%.

Life of production assets of 13.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Southcross Energy Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SXE is equal to -0.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $499.566 million for Southcross Energy Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.637 million for Southcross Energy Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Southcross Energy Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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