Intrinsic value of Symantec Corporation - SYMC

Previous Close

$23.07

  Intrinsic Value

$15.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-32%

Previous close

$23.07

 
Intrinsic value

$15.68

 
Up/down potential

-32%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SYMC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 14.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  4,931
  5,044
  5,174
  5,319
  5,481
  5,657
  5,850
  6,059
  6,283
  6,525
  6,783
  7,058
  7,351
  7,662
  7,993
  8,343
  8,714
  9,106
  9,520
  9,958
  10,419
  10,906
  11,419
  11,960
  12,529
  13,129
  13,760
  14,424
  15,122
  15,857
Variable operating expenses, $m
  4,006
  4,073
  4,150
  4,236
  4,331
  4,435
  4,549
  4,672
  4,805
  4,947
  4,003
  4,166
  4,339
  4,523
  4,718
  4,924
  5,143
  5,375
  5,619
  5,877
  6,150
  6,437
  6,740
  7,059
  7,395
  7,749
  8,121
  8,513
  8,926
  9,359
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  872
  891
  911
  931
  951
  972
  993
  1,015
  1,038
  1,060
  1,084
  1,108
  1,132
  1,157
  1,182
  1,208
  1,235
  1,262
  1,290
  1,318
  1,347
  1,377
  1,407
  1,438
  1,470
  1,502
  1,535
  1,569
  1,603
  1,639
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,878
  4,964
  5,061
  5,167
  5,282
  5,407
  5,542
  5,687
  5,843
  6,007
  5,087
  5,274
  5,471
  5,680
  5,900
  6,132
  6,378
  6,637
  6,909
  7,195
  7,497
  7,814
  8,147
  8,497
  8,865
  9,251
  9,656
  10,082
  10,529
  10,998
Operating income, $m
  52
  80
  113
  153
  198
  250
  308
  371
  441
  517
  1,696
  1,785
  1,880
  1,983
  2,093
  2,210
  2,336
  2,469
  2,611
  2,762
  2,922
  3,092
  3,272
  3,463
  3,664
  3,878
  4,103
  4,342
  4,593
  4,859
EBITDA, $m
  1,498
  1,533
  1,576
  1,626
  1,683
  1,747
  1,818
  1,897
  1,982
  2,075
  2,176
  2,285
  2,401
  2,526
  2,659
  2,802
  2,953
  3,114
  3,286
  3,468
  3,660
  3,865
  4,081
  4,310
  4,552
  4,808
  5,078
  5,363
  5,665
  5,982
Interest expense (income), $m
  143
  271
  282
  296
  311
  329
  348
  369
  392
  417
  444
  473
  504
  537
  572
  609
  649
  691
  735
  782
  832
  884
  940
  998
  1,060
  1,124
  1,192
  1,264
  1,340
  1,419
  1,503
Earnings before tax, $m
  -219
  -203
  -183
  -159
  -130
  -98
  -62
  -21
  24
  73
  1,222
  1,280
  1,343
  1,411
  1,483
  1,561
  1,645
  1,734
  1,829
  1,930
  2,038
  2,152
  2,274
  2,403
  2,540
  2,685
  2,839
  3,002
  3,174
  3,356
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  6
  20
  330
  346
  363
  381
  401
  422
  444
  468
  494
  521
  550
  581
  614
  649
  686
  725
  767
  810
  857
  906
Net income, $m
  -219
  -203
  -183
  -159
  -130
  -98
  -62
  -21
  17
  53
  892
  935
  981
  1,030
  1,083
  1,140
  1,201
  1,266
  1,335
  1,409
  1,488
  1,571
  1,660
  1,754
  1,854
  1,960
  2,072
  2,191
  2,317
  2,450

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  16,061
  16,430
  16,853
  17,327
  17,852
  18,428
  19,056
  19,735
  20,467
  21,253
  22,093
  22,990
  23,944
  24,959
  26,035
  27,176
  28,384
  29,661
  31,011
  32,436
  33,939
  35,525
  37,196
  38,957
  40,812
  42,764
  44,820
  46,982
  49,258
  51,651
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  16,061
  16,430
  16,853
  17,327
  17,852
  18,428
  19,056
  19,735
  20,467
  21,253
  22,093
  22,990
  23,944
  24,959
  26,035
  27,176
  28,384
  29,661
  31,011
  32,436
  33,939
  35,525
  37,196
  38,957
  40,812
  42,764
  44,820
  46,982
  49,258
  51,651
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
  0.307
Average production assets, $m
  6,637
  6,789
  6,964
  7,160
  7,377
  7,615
  7,874
  8,155
  8,457
  8,782
  9,129
  9,500
  9,894
  10,314
  10,758
  11,230
  11,729
  12,257
  12,814
  13,403
  14,024
  14,680
  15,370
  16,098
  16,864
  17,671
  18,520
  19,414
  20,354
  21,343
Working capital, $m
  -1,874
  -1,917
  -1,966
  -2,021
  -2,083
  -2,150
  -2,223
  -2,302
  -2,388
  -2,479
  -2,577
  -2,682
  -2,793
  -2,912
  -3,037
  -3,170
  -3,311
  -3,460
  -3,618
  -3,784
  -3,959
  -4,144
  -4,339
  -4,545
  -4,761
  -4,989
  -5,229
  -5,481
  -5,746
  -6,026
Total debt, $m
  5,227
  5,479
  5,767
  6,089
  6,447
  6,840
  7,267
  7,730
  8,228
  8,763
  9,335
  9,946
  10,596
  11,287
  12,020
  12,797
  13,620
  14,489
  15,408
  16,379
  17,403
  18,482
  19,621
  20,820
  22,083
  23,412
  24,812
  26,285
  27,835
  29,464
Total liabilities, $m
  10,937
  11,189
  11,477
  11,799
  12,157
  12,550
  12,977
  13,440
  13,938
  14,473
  15,045
  15,656
  16,306
  16,997
  17,730
  18,507
  19,330
  20,199
  21,118
  22,089
  23,113
  24,192
  25,331
  26,530
  27,793
  29,122
  30,522
  31,995
  33,545
  35,174
Total equity, $m
  5,123
  5,241
  5,376
  5,527
  5,695
  5,879
  6,079
  6,296
  6,529
  6,780
  7,048
  7,334
  7,638
  7,962
  8,305
  8,669
  9,055
  9,462
  9,892
  10,347
  10,827
  11,332
  11,866
  12,427
  13,019
  13,642
  14,297
  14,987
  15,713
  16,477
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  16,060
  16,430
  16,853
  17,326
  17,852
  18,429
  19,056
  19,736
  20,467
  21,253
  22,093
  22,990
  23,944
  24,959
  26,035
  27,176
  28,385
  29,661
  31,010
  32,436
  33,940
  35,524
  37,197
  38,957
  40,812
  42,764
  44,819
  46,982
  49,258
  51,651
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.020
  1.050
  1.070
  1.100
  1.130
  1.160
  1.200
  1.230
  1.260
  1.290
  1.320
  1.360
  1.390
  1.420
  1.450
  1.480
  1.500
  1.530
  1.560
  1.580
  1.610
  1.630
  1.650
  1.680
  1.700
  1.720
  1.740
  1.750
  1.770
  1.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319
  0.319

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -219
  -203
  -183
  -159
  -130
  -98
  -62
  -21
  17
  53
  892
  935
  981
  1,030
  1,083
  1,140
  1,201
  1,266
  1,335
  1,409
  1,488
  1,571
  1,660
  1,754
  1,854
  1,960
  2,072
  2,191
  2,317
  2,450
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1,445
  1,454
  1,463
  1,473
  1,484
  1,497
  1,511
  1,525
  1,541
  1,558
  480
  500
  521
  543
  566
  591
  617
  645
  674
  705
  738
  773
  809
  847
  888
  930
  975
  1,022
  1,071
  1,123
Funds from operations, $m
  1,227
  1,251
  1,280
  1,315
  1,354
  1,399
  1,449
  1,504
  1,559
  1,611
  1,373
  1,435
  1,501
  1,573
  1,649
  1,731
  1,818
  1,911
  2,010
  2,114
  2,226
  2,344
  2,469
  2,602
  2,742
  2,890
  3,047
  3,213
  3,388
  3,573
Change in working capital, $m
  -37
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -85
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -185
  -195
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -252
  -265
  -279
Cash from operations, $m
  1,263
  1,294
  1,329
  1,370
  1,415
  1,466
  1,522
  1,584
  1,644
  1,703
  1,471
  1,539
  1,613
  1,691
  1,775
  1,864
  1,959
  2,060
  2,167
  2,281
  2,401
  2,529
  2,664
  2,807
  2,958
  3,118
  3,287
  3,465
  3,654
  3,852
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -342
  -349
  -357
  -367
  -377
  -388
  -401
  -414
  -429
  -445
  -462
  -480
  -500
  -521
  -543
  -566
  -591
  -617
  -645
  -674
  -705
  -738
  -773
  -809
  -847
  -888
  -930
  -975
  -1,022
  -1,071
New CAPEX, $m
  -131
  -153
  -174
  -196
  -217
  -238
  -259
  -281
  -302
  -325
  -347
  -371
  -394
  -419
  -445
  -471
  -499
  -528
  -558
  -589
  -621
  -655
  -691
  -728
  -766
  -807
  -849
  -894
  -940
  -989
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -473
  -502
  -531
  -563
  -594
  -626
  -660
  -695
  -731
  -770
  -809
  -851
  -894
  -940
  -988
  -1,037
  -1,090
  -1,145
  -1,203
  -1,263
  -1,326
  -1,393
  -1,464
  -1,537
  -1,613
  -1,695
  -1,779
  -1,869
  -1,962
  -2,060
Free cash flow, $m
  790
  792
  798
  807
  822
  840
  862
  888
  912
  933
  661
  688
  718
  751
  787
  826
  869
  915
  964
  1,017
  1,074
  1,136
  1,201
  1,270
  1,345
  1,424
  1,508
  1,597
  1,692
  1,792
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  201
  252
  288
  323
  358
  392
  427
  463
  498
  535
  572
  611
  650
  691
  733
  777
  822
  870
  919
  970
  1,024
  1,080
  1,138
  1,199
  1,263
  1,330
  1,400
  1,473
  1,550
  1,630
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  319
  320
  317
  310
  298
  282
  262
  238
  216
  198
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  520
  572
  605
  633
  656
  674
  689
  701
  714
  733
  572
  611
  650
  691
  733
  777
  822
  870
  919
  970
  1,024
  1,080
  1,138
  1,199
  1,263
  1,330
  1,400
  1,473
  1,550
  1,630
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  1,311
  1,364
  1,402
  1,440
  1,477
  1,514
  1,551
  1,589
  1,627
  1,666
  1,234
  1,299
  1,368
  1,442
  1,520
  1,603
  1,691
  1,785
  1,883
  1,988
  2,098
  2,215
  2,339
  2,470
  2,608
  2,753
  2,907
  3,070
  3,241
  3,422
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -319
  -320
  -317
  -310
  -298
  -282
  -262
  -238
  -233
  -251
  -268
  -286
  -305
  -324
  -343
  -364
  -385
  -407
  -430
  -455
  -480
  -506
  -533
  -562
  -592
  -623
  -656
  -690
  -726
  -763
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  991
  1,044
  1,085
  1,130
  1,179
  1,232
  1,289
  1,351
  1,393
  1,415
  966
  1,013
  1,064
  1,118
  1,177
  1,239
  1,306
  1,377
  1,453
  1,533
  1,619
  1,710
  1,806
  1,908
  2,016
  2,130
  2,252
  2,380
  2,515
  2,659
Discount rate, %
  5.30
  5.57
  5.84
  6.14
  6.44
  6.76
  7.10
  7.46
  7.83
  8.22
  8.63
  9.06
  9.52
  9.99
  10.49
  11.02
  11.57
  12.15
  12.76
  13.39
  14.06
  14.77
  15.50
  16.28
  17.09
  17.95
  18.85
  19.79
  20.78
  21.82
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  941
  937
  915
  891
  863
  832
  798
  760
  707
  642
  388
  358
  326
  295
  263
  233
  203
  175
  148
  124
  102
  83
  66
  51
  39
  29
  21
  15
  11
  7
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  97.9
  95.8
  93.9
  92.1
  90.4
  88.9
  87.6
  86.4
  85.4
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6
  84.6

Symantec Corporation is a United States-based cyber security company. The Company offers products under categories, such as threat protection, information protection and cyber security services. Under threat protection, it offers Advanced Threat Protection, Endpoint Protection, Endpoint Protection Cloud, IT Management Suite, Email Security, Cloud, Data Center Security and Cloud Workload Protection products. Under the information protection category, it offers Data Loss Prevention, Encryption, Service, VIP Access Manager, and Data Loss Prevention and CloudSOC products. The Company also offers consulting services, customer success services, cyber security services and education services. Its cyber security services include DeepSight Intelligence software, which provides an analysis of attacks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Symantec Corporation (SYMC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -132.3
Price to Sales 3.5
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -63.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -48.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -74.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -23.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 197.2%
Total Debt to Equity 234.8%
Interest Coverage -1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Total Capital -1.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.2%
Return On Equity -3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.3%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 78.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 81.1%
EBITDA Margin 10.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Operating Margin -2.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin -6.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Net Profit Margin -2.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
Effective Tax Rate 9.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 103.8%
Payout Ratio -209.4%

SYMC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SYMC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $4834 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Symantec Corporation. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Symantec Corporation. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SYMC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.3%, whose default value for SYMC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Symantec Corporation, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Symantec Corporation.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SYMC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 81.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $853 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SYMC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Symantec Corporation.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Symantec Corporation. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SYMC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SYMC are equal to 134.6%.

Life of production assets of 19 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Symantec Corporation operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SYMC is equal to -38%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5023 million for Symantec Corporation - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 639.010 million for Symantec Corporation is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Symantec Corporation at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $14.7 billion.

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