Intrinsic value of Synacor, Inc. - SYNC

Previous Close

$1.61

  Intrinsic Value

$0.16

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-90%

Previous close

$1.61

 
Intrinsic value

$0.16

 
Up/down potential

-90%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of SYNC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  147
  150
  154
  158
  163
  169
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  228
  238
  249
  260
  271
  284
  297
  310
  325
  340
  356
  373
  391
  410
  430
  450
  472
Variable operating expenses, $m
  32
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  89
  93
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  126
  128
  131
  134
  137
  140
  143
  146
  150
  153
  156
  160
  163
  167
  170
  174
  178
  182
  186
  190
  194
  199
  203
  207
  212
  217
  221
  226
  231
  236
Total operating expenses, $m
  158
  160
  164
  168
  172
  176
  180
  184
  189
  194
  196
  201
  206
  212
  217
  223
  229
  235
  242
  248
  255
  263
  270
  277
  286
  294
  302
  311
  320
  329
Operating income, $m
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -2
  1
  6
  9
  13
  16
  21
  25
  30
  36
  42
  48
  55
  62
  70
  79
  88
  97
  108
  119
  131
  143
EBITDA, $m
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  2
  3
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  23
  27
  32
  37
  42
  48
  55
  62
  69
  77
  86
  95
  105
  116
  127
  139
  151
  165
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Earnings before tax, $m
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -1
  5
  8
  11
  15
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  45
  52
  59
  66
  75
  83
  93
  103
  113
  125
  137
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
Net income, $m
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -1
  3
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  100

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
  286
  300
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  93
  95
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  226
  237
  248
  260
  273
  286
  300
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.581
  1.579
  1.571
  1.564
  1.567
  1.579
  1.568
  1.565
  1.571
  1.577
  1.578
  1.567
  1.576
  1.572
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.576
  1.578
  1.580
  1.574
  1.578
  1.574
  1.575
  1.574
  1.577
  1.577
  1.575
  1.573
  1.573
Average production assets, $m
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
Working capital, $m
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Total debt, $m
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  50
  54
  59
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  96
Total liabilities, $m
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  52
  54
  57
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
Total equity, $m
  52
  53
  55
  56
  58
  60
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  139
  146
  153
  160
  168
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  93
  95
  98
  100
  104
  107
  111
  115
  118
  123
  129
  134
  139
  145
  152
  158
  165
  172
  180
  188
  197
  206
  216
  227
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  300
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.090
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.160
  0.180
  0.200
  0.220
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.340
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.410
  0.430
  0.440
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559
  0.559

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -1
  3
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  20
  24
  28
  33
  38
  43
  48
  54
  61
  68
  75
  83
  91
  100
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  13
  15
  18
  21
  25
  28
  33
  37
  42
  47
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  86
  94
  103
  112
  122
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  1
  3
  4
  6
  9
  11
  13
  16
  18
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  42
  47
  53
  58
  65
  71
  79
  86
  95
  103
  112
  122
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
Free cash flow, $m
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -1
  1
  2
  4
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  22
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  80
  88
  96
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  12
  12
  12
  12
  11
  10
  9
  7
  5
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  11
  11
  9
  7
  5
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  4
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  39
  45
  50
  56
  63
  70
  77
  85
  94
  103
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -9
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  -8
  -8
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  1
  3
  2
  4
  6
  9
  11
  15
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  51
  57
  64
  71
  78
  86
  95
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  -7
  -7
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  0
  2
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  84.4
  71.1
  60.2
  51.4
  44.4
  38.9
  34.8
  31.8
  29.8
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7
  28.7

Synacor, Inc. is a technology development, multiplatform services and revenue partner for video, Internet and communications providers, device manufacturers and enterprises. The Company enables its customers to provide their consumers engaging, multiscreen experiences with products that require scale, actionable data and implementation. Through its Managed Portals and Advertising solutions, the Company enables its customers to earn revenue by monetizing media among their consumers. Its Managed Portals are delivered across devices and under its customers' own brand names. The Company delivers content, such as top news, entertainment, and long- and short-form video and applications, on its Managed Portals. In addition, consumers have the ability through portals to manage their e-mail and messaging, pay bills, receive special promotions and perform other account management needs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Synacor, Inc. (SYNC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -4.5
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 1.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 24.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 15.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 15%
Total Debt to Equity 17.5%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -12.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.5%
Return On Total Capital -21.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -17.9%
Return On Equity -25.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -20%
Asset Turnover 1.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 53.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 50.1%
EBITDA Margin -0.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Operating Margin -7.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -7.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.7%
Net Profit Margin -8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -7.8%
Effective Tax Rate -10%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -27.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

SYNC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the SYNC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $144 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Synacor, Inc.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Synacor, Inc.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our SYNC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for SYNC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Synacor, Inc., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Synacor, Inc..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of SYNC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 21.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $123 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for SYNC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.1% for Synacor, Inc..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Synacor, Inc.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the SYNC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for SYNC are equal to 23.2%.

Life of production assets of 4.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Synacor, Inc. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for SYNC is equal to -3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $51.171 million for Synacor, Inc. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 39.000 million for Synacor, Inc. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Synacor, Inc. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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