Intrinsic value of Tantech Holdings Ltd. - TANH

Previous Close

$1.59

  Intrinsic Value

$1.64

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+3%

Previous close

$1.59

 
Intrinsic value

$1.64

 
Up/down potential

+3%

 
Rating

hold

We calculate the intrinsic value of TANH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 0001), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
   2
   3
   4
   5
   6
   7
   8
   9
   10
   11
   12
   13
   14
   15
   16
   17
   18
   19
   20
   21
   22
   23
   24
   25
   26
   27
   28
   29
   30
   31

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  46
  49
  51
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  89
  94
  99
  104
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  172
  180
  189
  199
  209
Variable operating expenses, $m
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  58
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
Fixed operating expenses, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  58
  62
  65
  68
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
Operating income, $m
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
EBITDA, $m
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
Tax expense, $m
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Net income, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  147
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  335
  352
  371
  390
  410
  431
  453
  477
  501
  527
  554
  582
  611
  642
  675
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  147
  157
  166
  176
  186
  197
  208
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  335
  352
  371
  390
  410
  431
  453
  477
  501
  527
  554
  582
  611
  642
  675
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.313
  0.312
  0.307
  0.313
  0.312
  0.310
  0.313
  0.309
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.309
  0.310
  0.311
  0.311
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.311
  0.311
  0.310
  0.309
  0.309
  0.310
  0.309
  0.309
  0.310
  0.310
Average production assets, $m
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  42
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
Working capital, $m
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  57
  60
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
Total debt, $m
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  38
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
Total liabilities, $m
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  96
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  130
  136
  143
  151
  158
  166
  175
  184
Total equity, $m
  107
  114
  121
  128
  136
  143
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
  299
  314
  330
  347
  365
  383
  403
  423
  445
  468
  491
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  147
  157
  166
  176
  187
  197
  209
  220
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  319
  335
  353
  371
  390
  411
  431
  453
  477
  501
  526
  554
  581
  611
  643
  675
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.190
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.270
  0.280
  0.280
  0.290
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.310
  0.310
  0.320
  0.320
  0.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728
  0.728

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
Cash from operations, $m
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -7
  -7
Free cash flow, $m
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Discount rate, %
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Tantech Holdings Ltd. (Tantech BVI) is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is a developer and manufacturer of bamboo-based charcoal products for industrial energy applications and household cooking, heating, purification, agricultural and cleaning uses. The Company has three segments: consumer product, trading and biofuel energy. The Consumer products segment manufactures and sells Charcoal Doctor branded products and barbecue (BBQ) charcoal in China. Its products include purification and deodorization products and cleaning products. The Trading segment conducts rubber and other trading businesses. The Company's subsidiary, Tantech Charcoal, is engaged in the trading business. The biofuel energy segment produces and sells BBQ charcoal to customers in Asia, Europe and North America. It produces and sells bamboo-based fuel for Electric Double-Layer Capacitor (EDLC). Tantech BVI's solid charcoal products are used for purification and deodorization.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Tantech Holdings Ltd. (TANH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 9.7
Price to Sales 0.8
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -5.5
Price to Free Cash Flow -5.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -18.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 11.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.4%
Return On Total Capital 4.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Return On Equity 5.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 29.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
EBITDA Margin 14.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.9%
Operating Margin 14.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.6%
Net Profit Margin 8.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.5%
Effective Tax Rate 16.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

TANH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the TANH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $43 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Tantech Holdings Ltd.. The default revenue input number comes from 0001 income statement of Tantech Holdings Ltd.. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our TANH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for TANH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Tantech Holdings Ltd., is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Tantech Holdings Ltd..
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of TANH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 79.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for TANH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Tantech Holdings Ltd..

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Tantech Holdings Ltd.. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the TANH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for TANH are equal to 38%.

Life of production assets of 28.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Tantech Holdings Ltd. operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for TANH is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $100.812918 million for Tantech Holdings Ltd. - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.702 million for Tantech Holdings Ltd. is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Tantech Holdings Ltd. at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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